Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Polo342]

Hey Knightmare. Im just wondering where Josh Treacy would be in your re draft right now?

 

[Knightmare]

Can I have a selwood fyfe hybrid. Like literally if you took the average of their heights power marking, will for the contest ect ect ect then I think that's Horne. Although Horny has more pure speed and acceleration than both of them.

Selwood and Fyfe aren't quick and their games were never predicated around speed. Horne has nothing on either of them as contested ball winners. Selwood for hardness is on another level and has Horne convincingly beaten, as Fyfe does as a marking threat.

I think what can be hard to assess is whether Danger or Track would have been doing it with the regularity you are talking about playing league footy at 16 and 17. It's must easier to show that consistency of explosion if you are playing against your own age group.

Danger and Petracca developed at different stages and in very different ways to Horne. They're taller, stronger guys who lacked endurance bases. I'd back both of them to be higher impact per possession, with Danger lower production and Petracca similar or slightly lower production, though with more scoreboard impact at the same age, in the same competition.

Petracca at the same age having seen his junior career I viewed favourably to Horne as my top pick that year. It sounds like a lot of the vocal Horne fans will disagree there, but Petracca looked like a young Dusty even as a junior and was seriously good even then, and I'd even say as an unrelated aside his first few years were gravely underappreciated, as one of the competition's most damaging forwards in his first few years before becoming one of the competition's premier mids last year.

Hey Knightmare. Im just wondering where Josh Treacy would be in your re draft right now?

He's looking like he was worth a top-30 pick from last year's draft. Stocks keep rising. I might later in the year with more good performances be saying top-20. Still not sure he has the upside of a lot of the other better KPPs, but absolutely deserves respect for the way he's going. A good value pick it's looking like for the Dockers at this early stage.

 

[Thunderstruck]

There’s hyperbole and then there’s just absolute and complete gross exaggeration.

The bloke hasn’t even played an AFL game and objectively is still a complete unknown at the level.

Sam Walsh has been killing it since his first year, and would already be a top 20 midfielder in the comp… and even given those bona fides you’re taking an unproven prospect over him…

Yep, as per Chris, it's about drafting not re-drafting post AFL career. We have to compare Under 18's to Under 18's here and if they were all in the same year at this stage the only ones I'd have over him since 2001 would be Hodge, Rowell and possibly Gibbs but the latter is a tough one.

He'll be good, sometimes you just know. When you see a bloke take a few steps on a footy field you can tell and he's one of those guys that you can sum up in a few seconds.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Yep, as per Chris, it's about drafting not re-drafting post AFL career. We have to compare Under 18's to Under 18's here and if they were all in the same year at this stage the only ones I'd have over him since 2001 would be Hodge, Rowell and possibly Gibbs but the latter is a tough one.

He'll be good, sometimes you just know. When you see a bloke take a few steps on a footy field you can tell and he's one of those guys that you can sum up in a few seconds.

Yeah well you’re obvious entitled to your opinion, but I still disagree.

IMO since 2001, most of the key position no.1’s would still have been taken before him (or Daicos for that matter). JUH, Patton, Boyd, Kreuzer (ruck I know) and Watts.

McCartin is probably the only one you’d say wasn’t the absolute standout, with Petracca being close to being selected no1.

Even midfielders like Whitfield, Swallow and Scully had incredibly dominant junior lead ups and were so far and away the leading number 1 candidate it’s not funny.

Obviously the majority have ultimately proven not to live up to the billing, but that doesn’t change their standing at the time they were drafted.

Personally I think it’s rewriting history with the benefit of hindsight.

 

[Polo342]

I struggle to see any KPs better than Josh Treacy from that draft Nightmare? Unless I'm mistaken

 

[Knightmare]

I struggle to see any KPs better than Josh Treacy from that draft Nightmare? Unless I'm mistaken

Logan McDonald and Riley Thilthorpe of the key forwards I much prefer. Nik Cox I'd also be taking comfortably.

Reid looked good on debut and should come good. I'm optimistic about his future.

Jamarra while he may take longer than we'd like again I'd still be taking. DGB I'm hopeful comes good with more time and development.

Jackson Callow who went undrafted but was picked MSD I also fancy, though he's more a personal fancy and probably a unique to my board as one I rate more highly than others will.

Last year was a good draft for KPPs needless to say. That was the component from last year's draft that was a positive as expected.

 

[chopflop]

Where do you rate Goater atm knightmare?

 

[Knightmare]

Where do you rate Goater atm knightmare?

I covered my top-40 power rankings in my most recent YouTube video (The collapse of junior football in Victoria? July 2021 AFL Draft Power Rankings tier list top-40) for those wanting those I rate 21-40.

Goater I have at 21 currently and the way he's going, he's a big chance to break into my top-20 next month.

 

[kickthething]

Knightmare I had my first look at Tom Gillett from the Falcons today. Kid is huge and nearly tore the game apart except for some inaccurate kicking and an injury, what is your take on him

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I had my first look at Tom Gillett from the Falcons today. Kid is huge and nearly tore the game apart except for some inaccurate kicking and an injury, what is your take on him

Have only seen the one game of Gillett. He certainly has a presence. Endurance suspect at this stage, though found a heap of the footy last week and hit the scoreboard which is a positive.

Potentially draftable. Not sure what clubs will think of him, but he's one I look forward to seeing more of and may well take my fancy by years end if he keeps playing good footy.

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare ... enjoyed reading your bit on Connor MacDonald. Has he come with a rush this year ? In the 10-20 range..?


I was wondering how Conway compares to Darcy when he was in the Champs.

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare I had my first look at Tom Gillett from the Falcons today. Kid is huge and nearly tore the game apart except for some inaccurate kicking and an injury, what is your take on him

I think he needs some serious conditioning. I doubt his numbers in a combine would be flattering. Im surprised with the inaccurate kicking. Id say his kicking is the foundation of his game

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare ... enjoyed reading your bit on Connor MacDonald. Has he come with a rush this year ? In the 10-20 range..?


I was wondering how Conway compares to Darcy when he was in the Champs.

He's been really consistent all year. From game one dominating. MacDonald hasn't received the hype yet, clubs may well rate him more like 20-40, but I'm very comfortable rating him around 10 on my own board. He's one where with a few minor refinements and just hitting those shorter targets more and lowering his eyes and I think others would be more comfortable about rating him more highly also.

Who is this Conway you're referring to? I'm probably just having a mental block.

 

[Turbocat]

He's been really consistent all year. From game one dominating. MacDonald hasn't received the hype yet, clubs may well rate him more like 20-40, but I'm very comfortable rating him around 10 on my own board. He's one where with a few minor refinements and just hitting those shorter targets more and lowering his eyes and I think others would be more comfortable about rating him more highly also.

Who is this Conway you're referring to? I'm probably just having a mental block.

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To me there a lot of similarities between him and Darcy in his u18 years. Darcy did not look over athletic either.

 

[Turbocat]

He's been really consistent all year. From game one dominating. MacDonald hasn't received the hype yet, clubs may well rate him more like 20-40, but I'm very comfortable rating him around 10 on my own board. He's one where with a few minor refinements and just hitting those shorter targets more and lowering his eyes and I think others would be more comfortable about rating him more highly also.

Id say he has a chance to really rise..with some champ games to come. Anyone in recent years you would compare him to..?

 

[Knightmare]

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To me there a lot of similarities between him and Darcy in his u18 years. Darcy did not look over athletic either.

Oh, the way you worded it, it sounded like someone who previously played.

Darcy is more a genuine key forward and KPP and more like the Max King/Joe Daniher equivalent in this draft.

Conway is a pure ruckman without any versatility to his game. Think of Conway as something more like Oscar McInerney. Reasonable ruckman, sometimes takes the ball out of the ruck himself. Needs to do more around the ground though. Can take the odd strong mark around the ground though that's a component he'll be looking to develop to the level McInerney can. And would also benefit from getting better forward of centre. He's basically the more solid ruck this year and appropriate for selection mid-draft roughly, or second round onwards at least.

Id say he has a chance to really rise..with some champ games to come. Anyone in recent years you would compare him to..?

In my article I compared MacDonald to Ben Keays. I do agree though during the Champs MacDonald who should be one of the leading ball winners should only help his stocks.

 

[Turbocat]

Oh, the way you worded it, it sounded like someone who previously played.

Darcy is more a genuine key forward and KPP and more like the Max King/Joe Daniher equivalent in this draft.

Conway is a pure ruckman without any versatility to his game. Think of Conway as something more like Oscar McInerney. Reasonable ruckman, sometimes takes the ball out of the ruck himself. Needs to do more around the ground though. Can take the odd strong mark around the ground though that's a component he'll be looking to develop to the level McInerney can. And would also benefit from getting better forward of centre. He's basically the more solid ruck this year and appropriate for selection mid-draft roughly, or second round onwards at least.



In my article I compared MacDonald to Ben Keays. I do agree though during the Champs MacDonald who should be one of the leading ball winners should only help his stocks.

Im sorry .. I have been poor at conveying my questions .

Geelong Falcon Sean Darcy , now at Freo... when he played in the champs level etc. To me the way he has developed has been amazing. He played from his first year and now has become one of the best rucks in the leauge.Yet Id not say he was overly athletic when he played as a junior. Not the way I remember it. To me Toby Conway may be a bit similar ...


MacDonald...they type of player he is ..who in recent drafts would you compare him to. Just trying to think in terms of his value compared to recent benchmarks.

 

[Knightmare]

Im sorry .. I have been poor at conveying my questions .

Geelong Falcon Sean Darcy , now at Freo... when he played in the champs level etc. To me the way he has developed has been amazing. He played from his first year and now has become one of the best rucks in the leauge.Yet Id not say he was overly athletic when he played as a junior. Not the way I remember it. To me Toby Conway may be a bit similar ...


MacDonald...they type of player he is ..who in recent drafts would you compare him to. Just trying to think in terms of his value compared to recent benchmarks.

I must be half asleep today, my apologies. Too many of the same surnames never helps with that.

Sean Darcy wasn't all that impressive in his draft year to the extent that I don't believe I had him in my power rankings. He won his hitouts (and would get his 30-40 per game) and was still a relative physical presence but in the games he played he looked like a later or maybe even rookie pick to me at the time, as there wasn't anything super outstanding or influential about his play relatively, and certainly not compared to what we see from him today. His first year in the AFL was really a shock to me seeing how much progress he made, just about playing better at AFL level than he had the year before in the TAC Cup at the time.

Toby Conway perhaps is slightly the better footballer at the same age than Darcy was, with the capability to take it out of the ruck and win his own clearance and be at least somewhat more of a threat forward of centre v Darcy I don't recall kicking any goals. Fairly similar games though. Both deficient around the ground, both can take a contested grab a game without being dominant in that area.

I can't see Toby Conway having that same first year as Sean Darcy or having that kind of immediate impact, though it's only from a hindsight perspective that we know Darcy looked so good so immediately, as I certainly would never have picked it.

Ben Keays was picked in the 20s. You could look at MacDonald and think about Deven Robertson and Harry Schoenberg in 2019, Sam Berry last year. So probably the 20s if you're looking for your comparables for MacDonald.

 

[Turbocat]

I must be half asleep today, my apologies. Too many of the same surnames never helps with that.

Sean Darcy wasn't all that impressive in his draft year to the extent that I don't believe I had him in my power rankings. He won his hitouts (and would get his 30-40 per game) and was still a relative physical presence but in the games he played he looked like a later or maybe even rookie pick to me at the time, as there wasn't anything super outstanding or influential about his play relatively, and certainly not compared to what we see from him today. His first year in the AFL was really a shock to me seeing how much progress he made, just about playing better at AFL level than he had the year before in the TAC Cup at the time.

Toby Conway perhaps is slightly the better footballer at the same age than Darcy was, with the capability to take it out of the ruck and win his own clearance and be at least somewhat more of a threat forward of centre v Darcy I don't recall kicking any goals. Fairly similar games though. Both deficient around the ground, both can take a contested grab a game without being dominant in that area.

I can't see Toby Conway having that same first year as Sean Darcy or having that kind of immediate impact, though it's only from a hindsight perspective that we know Darcy looked so good so immediately, as I certainly would never have picked it.

Ben Keays was picked in the 20s. You could look at MacDonald and think about Deven Robertson and Harry Schoenberg in 2019, Sam Berry last year. So probably the 20s if you're looking for your comparables for MacDonald.

Thanks Km ..sorry about the miss communication. I look forward to seeing MacDonald in the champs and his Combine numbers. Geelong love guys who are top 10 in at least one measurement at the combine, especially the running.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

May I ask, makes Rowell such a superstar talent? Obviously I'm bias regarding Walsh but when I watch Rowell I see a young nuggety midfielder whos generally very very good at everything, like a more developed Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

at his age. On the other hand when I watch Horne, or Walsh, or Butters, even Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

I see a point of difference. Some X-Factor. Horne to me looks like an absolute freak athletically. Explosive, huge leap, reminds me of Danger if he was a bit more evasive and slightly less bullish while also being a bit better by foot. Butters has the insane illusiveness and creativity and Walsh has the best engine I've personally been alive to watch come through as a draftee.

Obviously he's a very good player, but is there anything that Rowell looks to become that he isn't already? Kids built like an ox and has good skills but he doesn't look the type whos going to develop into a high flyer or forward half fwd mismatch like Dusty/Bont who teams struggle to contain. All the absolute top tier players have something that sets them apart from the rest of the comp - Bont, Dusty, Danger, Fyfe, Pendles. Now Petracca. They all had more to them than simply just being very good ball winners. Ability to push forward, the Pendles timewarp, explosiveness, great kicks, big frames, great marks around the ground.
I've just never seen the same for Rowell, but maybe thats just the way I see the game. I'll take a Dusty/Bont over any amount of Lachie Neales you throw at me.

That being said I don't see any reason why Horne couldn't end up the same, he definitely has the tools and x factor galore if he learns to use it more often.

 

[PMBangers]

when I watch Rowell I see a young nuggety midfielder whos generally very very good at everything, like a more developed Lachie Neale at his age

Would think a comparison to the reigning brownlow medallist is pretty star like

 

[PyrrhicVic]

Would think a comparison to the reigning brownlow medallist is pretty star like

At his best he can be ‘Neal-esque,’ I’m more concerned about the fact he looks like he’s aged 5 years in the past two seasons.

 

[PMBangers]

At his best he can be ‘Neal-esque,’ I’m more concerned about the fact he looks like he’s aged 5 years in the past two seasons.

Significant Shoulder and knee injuries could do that to a 20-year-old, especially when he's played less than 10 games overall at the level

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Would think a comparison to the reigning brownlow medallist is pretty star like

Neale is very very good, but I think there's always been a difference between Neale and Danger/Bont/Dusty levels of superstar, even if they may not always be as consistent. No criticism of Neale, I just think athletically all 3 have the edge. In the same vein I see Horne having that type of xfactor, where as I haven't seen it in Rowell despite being a hell of a player from the get go.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Neale is very very good, but I think there's always been a difference between Neale and Danger/Bont/Dusty levels of superstar, even if they may not always be as consistent. No criticism of Neale, I just think athletically all 3 have the edge. In the same vein I see Horne having that type of xfactor, where as I haven't seen it in Rowell despite being a hell of a player from the get go.

How many games of Horne have you actually watched in the SANFL this year?