Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Comparisons to players are always hard. No one is ever happy unless you compare them to the elite guns of the comp.

I am going to claim your comparison of Nick to Merrett though .

I'm comfortable with the Merrett comparison for Nick. I think that's the role he plays at AFL level and roughly the level he gets to, injuries permitting. He's not that big mid and I don't ever think he'll become that dominant contested mid, but still win more than enough of his own ball, operate well inside and he can rack it up and use the footy.

The area I'd say he lags behind Merrett most actually at this stage is in his work by foot which has some room to grow, though I feel it will and with some luck gets to a similar level.

I think Heeney is a good comparison. It’s who stylistically he reminds me of.

Otherwise Sloane with more of a burst of speed in the first 20m.

I've been thinking through a few but I'm comfortable with Heeney for Horne. Horne is more a midfield version and not as good forward of centre, but there will just about always be compromises with any player comparison.

With the Sloane/Lyons comparisons I was really trying to give Horne the credit he isn't getting for his tackling and pressure game which I'd class even as features.

 

[Mutineer]

Don't forget with Dangerfield he was drafted one year out, so it would be like comparing Danger at that age to Horne last year.

No he wasn't, you're clutching at straws now, Patty played 2 games and trained with the Crows later in the year in his rookie year on our list.

IMO Horne will have more impact in his initial years than Patty did as well.

 

[Mutineer]

I think Heeney is a good comparison. It’s who stylistically he reminds me of.

Otherwise Sloane with more of a burst of speed in the first 20m.

Way more athletically gifted and quicker than Rory Sloane who I've seen a bit of.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Way more athletically gifted and quicker than Rory Sloane who I've seen a bit of.

But much less than Dangerfield…

It’s also why I said he has more burst (and probably top line) speed than Sloane. Stylistically I think they play similar though IMO.

There isn’t going to be an exact carbon copy making player comparisons.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

No he wasn't

He was picked under the old age criteria, so was 10 months younger than Horne will be.

 

[ArdentEagle]

He sounds a bit like Luke Shuey

13

Luke Shuey

Age

34

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

10.7

5star

M

3.3

3star

T

4.9

5star

CL

5.6

5star

D

18.7

4star

K

10.8

4star

HB

7.8

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

4.3

5star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.2

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.8

5star

CL

1.4

4star

to me since we're doing comparisons.

 

[Harry O]

I’m not interested in arguing, but that’s why you need to watch games and not go off stats alone. Aside from cunners 8.7 to Lyons 7.2 this year he’s also slicing them up by foot. Brad Johnson called him the best one step kick in the comp on the weekend. And it’s hard to argue with. He also the best exponent of a handball since Greg Williams.

Top 20 for Cunnington on 2021 alone seems a reasonable judgement. His last 6 or so weeks have been strong but he had a slowish start to season by his standards, including the game against Tyler Brown

 

[Knightmare]

No he wasn't, you're clutching at straws now, Patty played 2 games and trained with the Crows later in the year in his rookie year on our list.

IMO Horne will have more impact in his initial years than Patty did as well.

2008 was the last year clubs could take players aged in Jan-April the year before they would otherwise be draft eligible, with that rule changing for the 2009 draft.

Dangerfield, born in April 1990 was drafted in a draft class of players mostly born in 1989.

Dangerfield if I recall correctly stayed home to complete his schooling and had little involvement with Adelaide in his first season, so that first season was basically a write off. And obviously early on there were inconsistencies and it took a good while before he became the great player he is today. As mentioned already, it took time for Danger and Petracca to develop their endurance. Horne is readier for a midfield role earlier because he's fitter, but he's not going to have anything like that level of power. As mentioned already, he's shorter and lighter physically, so expectations need to be tempered from any thinking they're getting the next Dangerfield or Petracca in Horne.

Way more athletically gifted and quicker than Rory Sloane who I've seen a bit of.

I'm not disagreeing Sloane is less athletic than Horne. Just as Lyons is less athletic than Horne. You'll never find an instance where I make that suggestion.

Where my difference in opinion comes in is, I don't pigeonhole Horne as an athlete. He's more than that and doing so feels missing the point of his game. Being quick and a high leaper is far from all he contributes, and aren't the components in the games I've watched he shows at the highest frequency. In comparisons to Sloane or Lyons I'd look to the tackling, the pressure. They're things they're bringing every week as Horne does. And from a contested perspective, or for tackles and pressure, Horne is killing it if he reaches the level of either of them, and they're the areas I'm expecting at the next level Horne defines himself by, more-so than I do being super explosive or an aerial marking freak.

He sounds a bit like Luke Shuey to me since we're doing comparisons.

Luke Shuey is getting warmer and closer to the mark with Horne in terms of height/size/athleticism, or certainly more-so than a comparison to Dangerfield. Horne's game is different still though, from being more of a vertical athlete and being much more of a marking threat (Shuey has never been), to certainly compared to a young Shuey being a better decision maker and ball user.

And none of that is to disrespect Shuey, who Horne would be lucky if he becomes as good as, as a stoppage player. Though maybe he can, with Shuey closer to that mark Horne could get to, as I'm not seeing Horne in the future becoming that 30d+ midfielder or anything close.

 

[Psicosis]

I don't mean to join in on the pile on, but can someone show me when Jarryd Lyons was doing this against grown men as a 17 year old?





I don't refer to myself as a "draft watcher", but I watch a lot of AFL, and the traits that he demonstrates in these videos, are a combination of elite explosiveness, power, speed, evasiveness & strength.

 

[chopflop]

I don't mean to join in on the pile on, but can someone show me when Jarryd Lyons was doing this against grown men as a 17 year old?





I don't refer to myself as a "draft watcher", but I watch a lot of AFL, and the traits that he demonstrates in these videos, are a combination of elite explosiveness, power, speed, evasiveness & strength.

I hadn't seen that last little highlight tape you added so thanks

Completely agree, you can't watch that video and logically come up with a comparison to Lyons. It's also pretty non-sensical to put a ceiling on a kid who is quite clearly a special midfield talent, doing things most are just not physically capable of. He is shrugging off grown men at league level in these clips, no? He will be a big player no doubt

 

[Deadly Darcy]

I don't mean to join in on the pile on, but can someone show me when Jarryd Lyons was doing this against grown men as a 17 year old?





I don't refer to myself as a "draft watcher", but I watch a lot of AFL, and the traits that he demonstrates in these videos, are a combination of elite explosiveness, power, speed, evasiveness & strength.

I’ve never regained my faith in S.A football form since the time everyone declared James Aish was the second coming.... So much hype and so little delivery despite 2 years as a boy against men leading into 2013.

 

[Rusty Beam]

I’ve never regained my faith in S.A football form since the time everyone declared James Aish was the second coming.... So much hype and so little delivery despite 2 years as a boy against men leading into 2013.

And Ben Kennedy for us

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Connor MacDonald: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...r-macdonald-turning-heads-dandenong-stingrays

 

[Knightmare]

I don't mean to join in on the pile on, but can someone show me when Jarryd Lyons was doing this against grown men as a 17 year old?



I don't refer to myself as a "draft watcher", but I watch a lot of AFL, and the traits that he demonstrates in these videos, are a combination of elite explosiveness, power, speed, evasiveness & strength.

Lyons wasn't great early in his career. Only in his last year with Adelaide he really came on and looked AFL standard, with his seasons at Gold Coast where he became an outstanding mid.

What the highlights don't show is what Horne does defensively. His pressure, effort, tackling. They're the things he does at the highest frequency.

It's like if you're watching a highlight tape of Pendlebury and it's just showing him kicking a few goals. The footage linked isn't representative of what Horne does at the highest frequency and I'd term him as more of a defensively rather than offensively oriented midfielder in the SANFL - despite what the footage shows.

In the junior ranks I've also come to find that that while speed often is there for a lot of them as juniors, speed tends to reduce with time, and as their games mature and they get stronger, that gets toned down. When Horne hits 25 or 30, we won't be speaking about him like we do Dangerfield. Be it stylistically or in terms of standard of football.

I’ve never regained my faith in S.A football form since the time everyone declared James Aish was the second coming.... So much hype and so little delivery despite 2 years as a boy against men leading into 2013.

There has been a lot of overhyping over the years of what performance at SANFL League level means, while on the other hand, with Powell and Poulter going so well from last year's draft, it tells us at the same time we shouldn't sleep on performance in the u18s.

How beneficial League football really is should come into question.

If we look at those playing League football, their roles are diminished and they're not going to be featured players as they are in the U18s.

I've for the same reasons, just looking at Collingwood - Aish, Scharenberg, B.Kennedy and Broomhead in as many years as League players in as many years. Injuries hurt the development of Scharenberg and Broomhead.

I'd even add on top of all that, if we look at those Mini Draft guys in Jaeger O'Meara, Brad Crouch, Jack Martin and Jesse Hogan. They all came into the AFL system early. Jaeger and Crouch have had awful injury histories. Martin has missed enough games also, and Hogan has also had his injuries. And the thing with each of them is they haven't exactly developed as you'd expect despite having that year developing in a club's system and getting those state league opportunities that year early.

 

[Chioli]

I hadn't seen that last little highlight tape you added so thanks

Completely agree, you can't watch that video and logically come up with a comparison to Lyons. It's also pretty non-sensical to put a ceiling on a kid who is quite clearly a special midfield talent, doing things most are just not physically capable of. He is shrugging off grown men at league level in these clips, no? He will be a big player no doubt

Might have been the clip but didn't look like was a great kick

 

[chopflop]

Might have been the clip but didn't look like was a great kick

Yeh agree, looked to be a butcher. But, I ain't no draft watcher so I am sure others could offer more on his disposal. Still personally can't see him not being a gun and will be none to surprised if hawthorn throw the kitchen sink at NFC in a pick swap

 

[LittleG]

Jamarra is debuting versus Swans. Buddy was his idol growing up, so first game against Buddy will be something he will always remember.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Jamarra is debuting versus Swans. Buddy was his idol growing up, so first game against Buddy will be something he will always remember.

I was thinking that too. It’s almost certainly not deliberate but old buddy vs new buddy (as he was touted in the lead up to the draft) is a nice marketing ploy!

 

[Knightmare]

Jamarra is debuting versus Swans. Buddy was his idol growing up, so first game against Buddy will be something he will always remember.

Should be fun to watch. Hopefully Logan is up the other end.


Hopefully Jamarra has a few moments. The sure thing with Jamarra is he'll be flying for marks, even if he's not taking them.

 

[Mutineer]

And Ben Kennedy for us

And Lachie Neale for Freo/Lions and Shannon Hurn for the Weagles..

 

[Thunderstruck]

All I see with Horne is Dangerfield. He can take about 3 steps running and that's all you need. Same running gait, sidestep, ball drop similar. Horne has pace but not the full blistering acceleration and speed of a younger Danger it's like a dumbed down version of that. He even flicks his hair back the same!!!

After that most other aspects of his game compare pretty favourably. He's ruthlessly hard at the man and ball, he craves contact, he knows he's good and it shows, he has confidence and is assertive. Horne would be better defensively than Danger, he sees the game 2-3 pieces of play ahead and is already there in position and thinking about it. I think I'm as close to Horne as Lyons is.

He could be playing AFL right now and not look out of place at all.

All I see is a genuine 12-15 year gun at AFL level with copious honours to his name. He's the best junior mid I've seen come out of SA since Gibbs and whilst he doesn't have the class, production or poise of Gibbs at the same age at SANFL level he's about 20 times harder and more suited to be (and this is the most important point) impactful per possession, per moment, per contest, per 1%'er than Gibbs (and certainly Daicos) for that matter. He's a generational midfielder who I would take at pick 1 over every other pick 1 with the exception of Rowell, since Gibbs in 2006 and quite possibly Hodge in 2001

 

[Turbocat]

Knightmare ... at a guess ... how many of the players in tomorrows VM V VC game will get drafted this year.

 

[Knightmare]

All I see with Horne is Dangerfield. He can take about 3 steps running and that's all you need. Same running gait, sidestep, ball drop similar. Horne has pace but not the full blistering acceleration and speed of a younger Danger it's like a dumbed down version of that. He even flicks his hair back the same!!!

After that most other aspects of his game compare pretty favourably. He's ruthlessly hard at the man and ball, he craves contact, he knows he's good and it shows, he has confidence and is assertive. Horne would be better defensively than Danger, he sees the game 2-3 pieces of play ahead and is already there in position and thinking about it. I think I'm as close to Horne as Lyons is.

He could be playing AFL right now and not look out of place at all.

All I see is a genuine 12-15 year gun at AFL level with copious honours to his name. He's the best junior mid I've seen come out of SA since Gibbs and whilst he doesn't have the class, production or poise of Gibbs at the same age at SANFL level he's about 20 times harder and more suited to be (and this is the most important point) impactful per possession, per moment, per contest, per 1%'er than Gibbs (and certainly Daicos) for that matter. He's a generational midfielder who I would take at pick 1 over every other pick 1 with the exception of Rowell, since Gibbs in 2006 and quite possibly Hodge in 2001

Big endorsement of Horne. I don't disagree he's hard and enjoys contact, but he's not that powerful, high volume first possession winner and instead I view more-so as that neat and tidy ground ball winner who can take it on the move and burst out at good speed at the low frequency he does that. He's not that bigger/taller mid to do the things we see from Danger at such a high frequency.

I'll never be comparing Horne to Dangerfield because Horne as others keep missing (though you're rightly mentioning) is committed defensively and my view is he does more defensively to impact games than he does offensively. Pressuring and tackling to a high level as that great staple to his game. It's the one component in all six games I've seen of him this year, including that game v Norwood where even though he couldn't get his hands on the footy, he was still applying himself defensively. There wasn't a game during the NAB League break I missed him. Horne is a lot more balanced and a genuinely two way player and I'd even suggest more defensively oriented the offensively oriented which is the unusual quirk with him for someone so talented.

I'm expecting a long career and there is no contest he's harder and more aggressive with his play than Gibbs was. They've very different footballers. I can't say I'm seeing anything generational though. I hope I'm wrong though, as it would be nice to see some potentially generational players come out of this draft.

Knightmare ... at a guess ... how many of the players in tomorrows VM V VC game will get drafted this year.

Could be around 30 to give you a number, with a greater proportion from Metro. If 30 from the game get drafted, an 18/12 split towards Metro is roughly what I'd expect.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Andrew Walker would be my pick of past players for comparison.

Actually the bloke taken the pick before Walker in the draft would be a decent comparison IMO.

Maybe a bit more defensively minded. But to be honest I can’t recall Cooney’s defensive mindedness, and they generally don’t shine the light on that in highlight packages to refresh your memory.

 

[RUNVS]

Was the Allies vs Vic Metro game today or was that cancelled because of Covid?

U19s - AFL.com.au

View the latest U19s news, video and fixtures and results

www.afl.com.au