Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

How bad is the Finn Callaghan foot injury? anyone know Knightmare

I'm not aware of it being anything major that will keep him out for an extended time.

Happy for others to chirp in if they know more. But the hint to me is there would be a public announcement I'm sure if he was out for the season which makes me optimistic it's nothing major.

We’ll that’s now 6 times I’ve watched him in the SANFL this year (plus the AIS game). Obviously this was his quietest game, but I reckon it’s a reasonable sample size and was consistent with my observations from other occasions.

For all the sh*t Nick cops for sitting off the pack, Horne does the exact same thing. Personally I don’t think he is a great stoppage player, unless he gets it tapped into space where he can use his burst to gather and run. He definitely isn’t Dangerfield busting through the middle of the pack, Taylor Adams extracting the ball through sheer desperation (generally diving on the ball) or other stoppage monsters like Libba, Oliver etc who burrow the ball out.

There was one nice little passage where the ball was tapped into space and he was able to do this, but unfortunately his ensuing kick was smothered.

His aggression, tackling, evasion and power, does mean he is a very good one on one post stoppage contested player though. Either able to buffer his opponent off the ball or apply tackle pressure. He did get pinged trying to ‘don’t argue’ his opponent at one stage, but it obviously still showed great intent and is encouraging.

Having said that he doesn’t seem to be able to link up in the chain of play often. It’s hard to tell watching remotely whether this is work rate or running patterns/positioning. The telling thing for me is how little time he is actually is in the shot.

Again the defensive side (principally tackling) of his game was excellent. Not sure much else needs to be said about this other than it is consistently at a very high level.

For all this talk about him being a high flying contested marking freak I’ve seen no sign of it. Not as an potential intercept marking defender, nor as a consistent legitimate forward 50 aerial threat. The contested marking season stats back up the sample I’ve seen too. He actually had zero marks of any sort for the game which is astounding.

Lastly whilst it was a dubious free kick with him over exaggerating the push, he still did manage to kick another goal. His kicking action and routine seems really solid.

Thanks for the quick summary.

The best analysis I've read so far on Horne and broadly that's how I'm seeing Horne's game.

He's an occasional high flyer but not a dominant mark and not someone I look at as a reliable or even capable forward with his impact and capacity to even find the ball far too infrequent.

Defensively and tackling are his big strengths. Has the aggression.

Stoppage work is good and he can win his own ball but the key distinction as per your comments is he doesn't have anything on a freakish level where he necessarily looks like he can get that facet to a best in competition standard. And agree completely with how he's winning it, it's when it's a loose ball he'll swoop in and cleanly take it off the ground and have a good but not freakish burst with it. And he'll win some of his own hard ball, but as you say, nothing like a Libba/Oliver.

On the outside he doesn't seem to know where to go, but on top of that doesn't have the work rate of a Daicos who is always running, so he's relying very much on winning his own ball if you're to contrast the two.

Knightmare, what did you think of Jamarra's game yesterday?

Jamarra looked like a best-22 player in that game.

That first leap for a mark where he really elevated, but then went back to slot it, that's Jamarra doing Jamarra things. You're going to see him elevate every week and have moments.

I was impressed actually by his kicking and set shot conversion as I still look at that as a weakness. Perhaps he has put in work to improve in those facets. Will need a larger sample size to know for sure.

Jamarra will have his up and down games. That happens with first year players, particularly with first year key forwards. But a really encouraging performance. Liked what I saw and validated my view that he's still one of that top bracket from last year's draft - which was a top-4 including McDonald/Thilthorpe/Cox.

 

[PMBangers]

I'm not aware of it being anything major that will keep him out for an extended time.

Happy for others to chirp in if they know more. But the hint to me is there would be a public announcement I'm sure if he was out for the season which makes me optimistic it's nothing major.

Unless something has changed the messaging was he'd miss about a month from just before the Metro v Country Challenge match

 

[Knightmare]

Thank you for your reply KM. I completely agree walsh simply does not have the physical capability to ever impact like a danger/dusty/fyfe/ablett like you said. However what is stopping him from being even better than dane swan, lachie neale, ben cousins or mitchell in their brownlow years or jack macrae at his best? Some of those guys were the dominant player of the comp at their best and were one of the absolute top end elite players for several years. if you compare at same age, those guys (apart from cousins who mightve been if it existed) were nowhere near 4th in the most important votes being the aflca ones. I understand its not as great on a highlights reel as the more explosive players but in terms of overall impact, (factoring in consistent, week in week out, 4 quarters impact) on a game are they really that far behind?

I think that second group is the realistic scope for Walsh. Perhaps he could be that Ben Cousins equivalent from that next group down which is nothing to sneeze at. Cousins is of course an all-time great. And if Walsh is playing that kind of footy and not missing games, sensational career outcome.

For me it's a personal preference thing with midfielders having them multi-positional. If you watched my mid-year all-Australian video you would have picked up on that theme really prioritising those mids who were also great in a second position.

So I would say as an example that Leigh Matthews is the greatest footballer of all time. And I'd look at both what he was doing through the midfield, but then also up forward. The larger the rotation of those kinds of guys, your Ablett's, Danger's, your Dusty's, they're the guys I'd be prioritising because you can have a tagger go to them through the midfield and try to negate them, but then they'll push forward and kill them which is where I see their value pushing that gear ahead of those who exclusively play through the midfield. Hodge in defence similarly would be one of those first guys where if starting a team I'd be taking, because not only does he have the leadership qualities, but he's great in defence, but then you can put him through the midfield or even forward if you really wanted. Buckley was a freak who really other than ruck could play anywhere and do anything - he played CHB once v Carey and got the better of him. I look at those guys as being in a different category to your just midfielders as you'd say of the likes of certainly Neale, Macrae, Pendlebury etc where they're ineffective and unable to influence games anywhere else.

Doesn't mean I wouldn't want a Walsh, a Pendlebury, a Gaff, a Neale or a say Rowell if he gets back to how he looked at the start of year one, as two pure mids. You'd take both of those guys if you could. It's just if you ask. Do I want a Neale or a Dusty, and I can have just one, the answer to me is obvious.

And we're talking about separating great players. There isn't a lot in it. You always want great players when you can, but there are levels of great when you're actively comparing them and there's nothing wrong with that. Just as I'm sure Scott Pendlebury shouldn't take offence if I said there wasn't a point in time where he was ever the best player in the competition, with either Ablett ahead of him at his peak, then we have Danger, Fyfe and Dusty at various times since as those best players, with Bont now that next guy.

Knightmare If Callaghan misses the rest of the season with that footy (just a rumour at this point) could a strong second half of the season catapult Josh Goater high enough to be considered with Hawthorns first pick? Hawks fans are pretty universal in the type of midfielder we want/need and Goater feels like the next choice behind Callaghan.

Goater at Hawthorn's first pick I'd look at as far too early. For me he's firming as a first round pick, and probably does just push into my top-20 for August when I put that together, but I'd be thinking later than earlier. Others may disagree, but I wouldn't at this point in time off of what I've seen be comfortable investing a top-10 pick to get him. There are better mids who have done more.

If I'm Hawthorn I'd be looking at Roberts and Ward first up and look for a taller mid later.

If Hawks want Goater, they should be able to move down a few spots. Perhaps an opportunity to add more picks/players to improve the list.

Unless something has changed the messaging was he'd miss about a month from just before the Metro v Country Challenge match

Thanks for the update. If that's the case he'll probably be back in action once lockdown ends as lockdown is sure to be extended.

 

[Boristown]

Jamarra looked like a best-22 player in that game.

That first leap for a mark where he really elevated, but then went back to slot it, that's Jamarra doing Jamarra things. You're going to see him elevate every week and have moments.

I was impressed actually by his kicking and set shot conversion as I still look at that as a weakness. Perhaps he has put in work to improve in those facets. Will need a larger sample size to know for sure.

Jamarra will have his up and down games. That happens with first year players, particularly with first year key forwards. But a really encouraging performance. Liked what I saw and validated my view that he's still one of that top bracket from last year's draft - which was a top-4 including McDonald/Thilthorpe/Cox.

Do you think the Pies would accept a straight trade for De Goey or would the Bulldogs still need to throw in West & Lipinski?

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think the Pies would accept a straight trade for De Goey or would the Bulldogs still need to throw in West & Lipinski?

Can't imagine the Pies would give it a moments thought.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Goater at Hawthorn's first pick I'd look at as far too early. For me he's firming as a first round pick, and probably does just push into my top-20 for August when I put that together, but I'd be thinking later than earlier. Others may disagree, but I wouldn't at this point in time off of what I've seen be comfortable investing a top-10 pick to get him. There are better mids who have done more.

If I'm Hawthorn I'd be looking at Roberts and Ward first up and look for a taller mid later.

If Hawks want Goater, they should be able to move down a few spots. Perhaps an opportunity to add more picks/players to improve the list.

That's also my hope, that we can move up or acquire another first rounder to get at least 3 quality young players.
Currently i'd like a trio of Callaghan/Goater, Andrews (before 20 obviously) and a sliding Sonsie who I still feel will develop into a very solid player. Lots to play out yet though.

 

[blueiris]

Knights you have both Williams and Gicbus right in the Lions draft range would either be dominant enough to play next year with Hipwood knee and Gardiner shoulder and with no guarantee on how bad each injury is would it be worth the Lions taking both if available ?

 

[Knightmare]

That's also my hope, that we can move up or acquire another first rounder to get at least 3 quality young players.
Currently i'd like a trio of Callaghan/Goater, Andrews (before 20 obviously) and a sliding Sonsie who I still feel will develop into a very solid player. Lots to play out yet though.

Sonsie could conceivable drop way down the first round. He's another Hawks could move down and get.

In any case, I'd explore options and see what I can get.

Knights you have both Williams and Gicbus right in the Lions draft range would either be dominant to play next year with Hipwood knee and Gardiner shoulder and with no guarantee on how bad each injury is would it be worth the Lions taking both if available?

I rate a lot of the KPPs lower than most will is the sense I have at this stage, and I can see with how few good ones there are that there will be clubs who reach and go too early on some of them. Gibcus I feel like will be gone by Brisbane's pick, but Williams should be there and looks to me more like a second rounder than a first as he's not super athletic.

I wouldn't be looking at either of them as year one pieces though. Darcy is the only one I'd be giving games to next year, and that's possibly more-so to give him a taste rather than as a regular as he's still early stages in his development.

You'd have to look mature age in the rookie draft. Maybe that's a Blake Schlensog for a key defender or a Tyler Keitel or Matthew Hammelman if you want an immediate key forward as depth.

 

[Turbocat]

Jamarra looked like a best-22 player in that game.

That first leap for a mark where he really elevated, but then went back to slot it, that's Jamarra doing Jamarra things. You're going to see him elevate every week and have moments.

I was impressed actually by his kicking and set shot conversion as I still look at that as a weakness. Perhaps he has put in work to improve in those facets. Will need a larger sample size to know for sure.

Jamarra will have his up and down games. That happens with first year players, particularly with first year key forwards. But a really encouraging performance. Liked what I saw and validated my view that he's still one of that top bracket from last year's draft - which was a top-4 including McDonald/Thilthorpe/Cox.

He would be the luckiest #1 in a long time. How often does the #1 go into a good side let alone one pushing for a flag. Playing as the 3rd tall..how much easier does he have it compare to BKing. No doubting his talent.

I think it will be interesting to see how he develops.

 

[blueiris]

Sonsie could conceivable drop way down the first round. He's another Hawks could move down and get.

In any case, I'd explore options and see what I can get.



I rate a lot of the KPPs lower than most will is the sense I have at this stage, and I can see with how few good ones there are that there will be clubs who reach and go too early on some of them. Gibcus I feel like will be gone by Brisbane's pick, but Williams should be there and looks to me more like a second rounder than a first as he's not super athletic.

I wouldn't be looking at either of them as year one pieces though. Darcy is the only one I'd be giving games to next year, and that's possibly more-so to give him a taste rather than as a regular as he's still early stages in his development.

You'd have to look mature age in the rookie draft. Maybe that's a Blake Schlensog for a key defender or a Tyler Keitel or Matthew Hammelman if you want an immediate key forward as depth.

Conole has said KPP is really the place on our list we don’t have enough depth Williams interests me would have said McDonald but he’s assigned to Melbourne through NGA so unlikely

 

[Knightmare]

He would be the luckiest #1 in a long time. How often does the #1 go into a good side let alone one pushing for a flag. Playing as the 3rd tall..how much easier does he have it compare to BKing. No doubting his talent.

I think it will be interesting to see how he develops.

Will be interesting to see whether Jamarra joining the Dogs is a help or hindrance to his development.

I find those young ones joining the better teams with the better cultures tend to become the better players - think Joel Selwood v Bryce Gibbs. Scott Pendlebury v Marc Murphy. Nic Nat v Jack Watts. Danger v Kreuzer. etc. It's not an every time rule, as the player has to be talented enough to outperform the number one overall pick, but with Jamarra having the talent, as long as he gets the opportunity, there are no excuses for him not to develop to a best or near best in draft level.

Conole has said KPP is really the place on our list we don’t have enough depth Williams interests me would have said McDonald but he’s assigned to Melbourne through NGA so unlikely

Melbourne can't match top-20 bids on Andrew. The key for Brisbane if Andrew is of interest (and he's a very long term project) if having a pick high enough inside the top-20 to get him.

 

[Turbocat]

Will be interesting to see whether Jamarra joining the Dogs is a help or hindrance to his development.

I find those young ones joining the better teams with the better cultures tend to become the better players - think Joel Selwood v Bryce Gibbs. Scott Pendlebury v Marc Murphy. Nic Nat v Jack Watts. Danger v Kreuzer. etc. It's not an every time rule, as the player has to be talented enough to outperform the number one overall pick, but with Jamarra having the talent, as long as he gets the opportunity, there are no excuses for him not to develop to a best or near best in draft level.



Melbourne can't match top-20 bids on Andrew. The key for Brisbane if Andrew is of interest (and he's a very long term project) if having a pick high enough inside the top-20 to get him.

True..the one I often reference is Tambling V Varcoe. I cant believe that Tambling(2004) if drafted to Geelong would not have been better and Varcoe(2005) to Rich may have struggled in that era.

Yet I do wonder ... could certain players now draft to Geelong be better elsewhere. Just not many chances. Obviously Rowell would be getting a game anywhere but would probably be a bit more protected at Geelong atm.

Its an interesting conundrum. The best players often may fail due to the socialism of the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

True..the one I often reference is Tambling V Varcoe. I cant believe that Tambling(2004) if drafted to Geelong would not have been better and Varcoe(2005) to Rich may have struggled in that era.

Yet I do wonder ... could certain players now draft to Geelong be better elsewhere. Just not many chances. Obviously Rowell would be getting a game anywhere but would probably be a bit more protected at Geelong atm.

Its an interesting conundrum. The best players often may fail due to the socialism of the draft.

Tambling was a piece early career. He just didn't continue developing. Put them in opposing situations and Tambling should have had the better career.

The Rowell injuries are unlucky. It's more the skinny rucks that needs protecting and not being thrown in there early career, and I feel like that has impacted on a lot of those rucks taken early draft over the years where it's hurt them and not allowed them to play into their 30s.

I see it more as the good sides have the veteran leaderships, the culture, the player development and coaching to better fast-track and maximise the development.

It's not an always situation as sometimes good teams might not have opportunities, but if you're a Selwood and you can get games, it's better going to a Geelong at that time than a say Carlton/Melbourne at that time as there isn't any of those same ingredients in place to help him become the player he has been all this time.

 

[pupstar]

Will be interesting to see whether Jamarra joining the Dogs is a help or hindrance to his development.

I find those young ones joining the better teams with the better cultures tend to become the better players - think Joel Selwood v Bryce Gibbs. Scott Pendlebury v Marc Murphy. Nic Nat v Jack Watts. Danger v Kreuzer. etc. It's not an every time rule, as the player has to be talented enough to outperform the number one overall pick, but with Jamarra having the talent, as long as he gets the opportunity, there are no excuses for him not to develop to a best or near best in draft level.



Melbourne can't match top-20 bids on Andrew. The key for Brisbane if Andrew is of interest (and he's a very long term project) if having a pick high enough inside the top-20 to get him.

Not saying a great deal about the Blues culture there. Murphy Gibbs and Kreuzer.

 

[Knightmare]

Not saying a great deal about the Blues culture there. Murphy Gibbs and Kreuzer.

Judd needed more support than he got. He wasn't the kind of leader who could lift a playing group. He's an individual star who carried the team on his shoulders (think Ablett and Buckley). They lead by example and individually star and are among the very best in the history of the game, but it's not like a Luke Hodge where you can have him on a team and he makes everyone better and changes the culture and has everyone following him. Not that Hodge had it from day one, but he developed it, as Trent Cotchin at the start of 2017 developed when he admitted that he's not perfect and really took that playing group with him and helped with creating that buy-in, chemistry and all the intangibles.

The all-time great teams have those guys.

The worse teams tend to have some combination of quality coaching, quality player development and quality veteran leadership missing. Carlton during those Judd years, just as could be said of Melbourne during the Jack Watts era it can't be said had a particularly good mix of any of that. Same story with Ablett's Suns when he carried that team on his shoulders.

You can so easily compare the Giants to the Suns where upon adding Shane Mumford and Heath Shaw, their fortunes immediately changed and they became a very good side. Ablett needed those kinds of guys to support, just as Judd for Carlton did.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Knightmare I'd be interested to hear ur opinion on Liam Stocker

14

Liam Stocker

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.6

3star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

180.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.6

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

180.0

3star

? Obviously he has had some added limelight on his career given his draft circumstances. I don't compare him to the likes of a Walsh or Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

, Cerra etc but he just seems absolutely as tough as nails. Seems to be very good in the contest but still a fair way off having the tank and probably weight required to take the next step. He's very chunky like Petracca was in his first years before really trimming down in the 2019-2020 off season. Seems a booming kick and good decision maker aside from the odd howler and love his hands in tight.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

I'm not aware of it being anything major that will keep him out for an extended time.

Happy for others to chirp in if they know more. But the hint to me is there would be a public announcement I'm sure if he was out for the season which makes me optimistic it's nothing major.



Thanks for the quick summary.

The best analysis I've read so far on Horne and broadly that's how I'm seeing Horne's game.

He's an occasional high flyer but not a dominant mark and not someone I look at as a reliable or even capable forward with his impact and capacity to even find the ball far too infrequent.

Defensively and tackling are his big strengths. Has the aggression.

Stoppage work is good and he can win his own ball but the key distinction as per your comments is he doesn't have anything on a freakish level where he necessarily looks like he can get that facet to a best in competition standard. And agree completely with how he's winning it, it's when it's a loose ball he'll swoop in and cleanly take it off the ground and have a good but not freakish burst with it. And he'll win some of his own hard ball, but as you say, nothing like a Libba/Oliver.

On the outside he doesn't seem to know where to go, but on top of that doesn't have the work rate of a Daicos who is always running, so he's relying very much on winning his own ball if you're to contrast the two.



Jamarra looked like a best-22 player in that game.

That first leap for a mark where he really elevated, but then went back to slot it, that's Jamarra doing Jamarra things. You're going to see him elevate every week and have moments.

I was impressed actually by his kicking and set shot conversion as I still look at that as a weakness. Perhaps he has put in work to improve in those facets. Will need a larger sample size to know for sure.

Jamarra will have his up and down games. That happens with first year players, particularly with first year key forwards. But a really encouraging performance. Liked what I saw and validated my view that he's still one of that top bracket from last year's draft - which was a top-4 including McDonald/Thilthorpe/Cox.

Your disregard/ignorance regarding Denver Grainger-Barras astounds me.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I'd be interested to hear ur opinion on Liam Stocker? Obviously he has had some added limelight on his career given his draft circumstances. I don't compare him to the likes of a Walsh or Bailey Smith, Cerra etc but he just seems absolutely as tough as nails. Seems to be very good in the contest but still a fair way off having the tank and probably weight required to take the next step. He's very chunky like Petracca was in his first years before really trimming down in the 2019-2020 off season. Seems a booming kick and good decision maker aside from the odd howler and love his hands in tight.

Walsh, Smith and Cerra are among the best young midfielders in the competition, so Stocker obviously isn't those guys.

A lot of Carlton's youth has been disappointing this year, but Stocker is one of the few where I do believe he's a piece in the long run and can get better. His development will be interesting to watch. Does he remain in defence long term? Can he transition into more of a midfielder? If he can become something like a Brayden Maynard in defence that's a great outcome and maybe he just stays back if he can become nearly that good, but he's a strong body, can win it and is good in close, so as you say, if his endurance develops may he can become a midfielder. I'm not seeing the level of power of a Petracca, but maybe he could be something more like a Worpel perhaps for a top of mind name where if he becomes something like that, that's a great outcome also.

Stocker is one Carlton should remain invested in and look at as a not certain, but I'd say likely long term core piece if he keeps improving and working hard on his game, even if pinpointing that best position beyond doubt is a question at this point in time.

Your disregard/ignorance regarding Denver Grainger-Barras astounds me.

DGB in the conversation with Logan/Riley/Nik/Jamarra? Some might have him there but not for me. It's not a question of what they're doing today but what they'll be 4+ years from now. I don't see DGB becoming that transcendent star. Some may. I don't. I'm not even sure yet if he'll be a genuine key defender as he'll struggle against the stronger key forwards. He may well end up as a third tall.

He's intercepting well so far and hopefully that side of his game continues to expand and improve.

To his credit, he played well v Tom McDonald the other night. That's a great sign. With a few more games like that, he could well secure the #5 spot if I'm to complete a re-do at years end.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Walsh, Smith and Cerra are among the best young midfielders in the competition, so Stocker obviously isn't those guys.

A lot of Carlton's youth has been disappointing this year, but Stocker is one of the few where I do believe he's a piece in the long run and can get better. His development will be interesting to watch. Does he remain in defence long term? Can he transition into more of a midfielder? If he can become something like a Brayden Maynard in defence that's a great outcome and maybe he just stays back if he can become nearly that good, but he's a strong body, can win it and is good in close, so as you say, if his endurance develops may he can become a midfielder. I'm not seeing the level of power of a Petracca, but maybe he could be something more like a Worpel perhaps for a top of mind name where if he becomes something like that, that's a great outcome also.

Stocker is one Carlton should remain invested in and look at as a not certain, but I'd say likely long term core piece if he keeps improving and working hard on his game, even if pinpointing that best position beyond doubt is a question at this point in time.



DGB in the conversation with Logan/Riley/Nik/Jamarra? Some might have him there but not for me. It's not a question of what they're doing today but what they'll be 4+ years from now. I don't see DGB becoming that transcendent star. Some may. I don't. I'm not even sure yet if he'll be a genuine key defender as he'll struggle against the stronger key forwards. He may well end up as a third tall.

He's intercepting well so far and hopefully that side of his game continues to expand and improve.

To his credit, he played well v Tom McDonald the other night. That's a great sign. With a few more games like that, he could well secure the #5 spot if I'm to complete a re-do at years end.

Fair enough. I think you are wrong but I respect your opinion and love all your work regarding junior talent identification. Tough being a defender and getting the credit you deserve. Darcy Moore and Harris Andrews will rarely poll a Brownlow vote unfortunately.

 

[MITSUHIRATO]

Walsh, Smith and Cerra are among the best young midfielders in the competition, so Stocker obviously isn't those guys.

A lot of Carlton's youth has been disappointing this year, but Stocker is one of the few where I do believe he's a piece in the long run and can get better. His development will be interesting to watch.

Would be interested to hear your take on the bolded.

Walsh, McKay, Weitering, Stocker have been in career best form.

Silvagni and Tom DeKoning have been serviceable (if not handy).

Curnow, Cuningham, Fisher, Kemp, Philp, Marchbank have all been injured?

 

[Knightmare]

Fair enough. I think you are wrong but I respect your opinion and love all your work regarding junior talent identification. Tough being a defender and getting the credit you deserve. Darcy Moore and Harris Andrews will rarely poll a Brownlow vote unfortunately.

What are your expectations of DGB? What do you believe his upside to be out of interest? Do you believe he'll join the competition's elite and become as good as Moore and Andrews?

Would be interested to hear your take on the bolded.

Walsh, McKay, Weitering, Stocker have been in career best form.

Silvagni and Tom DeKoning have been serviceable (if not handy).

Curnow, Cuningham, Fisher, Kemp, Philp, Marchbank have all been injured?

Walsh, McKay and Weitering are the stars and that was clear coming into the season.

Stocker is showing he's a piece. He's the only new name to emerge.

As for the disappointing youth. Dow, O'Brien and Setterfield have been unimpressive, and Dow after all the preseason talk I had my hopes up for. Setterfield is probably moving out of that youth age range now but is still one of those former high picks I wanted to see establish himself by now. Durdin I hoped would push through for some games. Carroll who I really rate was disappointing early season though is starting to look better in the VFL in recent weeks. Lachie Fogarty after a good first month just hasn't kept up that strong start.

One positive I would bring up, and I liked his play last year also, and he's past that youth phase, but Matthew Kennedy is one I have liked and feel is a find.

 

[Wingnut19]

What are your expectations of DGB? What do you believe his upside to be out of interest? Do you believe he'll join the competition's elite and become as good as Moore and Andrews?

Have you watched his first few games? He’s unreal. Still way too early but from what I have already seen he will at least the equal if not better than those two. No doubt at all.

 

[Sphynx]

Is Walsh the best from the 2018 draft? I'd still say too early to be able to conclusively say that. The top end from that draft is all-time special. If Butters gets healthy and takes on a prominent midfield role, when Smith eventually gets regular midfield minutes, when Rozee gets back healthy, once we see the talls collectively in their fourth season, I feel like that's when we're taking moving towards having a better idea as to who the best from 2018 really is. Even Tarryn Thomas is starting to play some good footy now, James Rowbottom is a good mid, and Rankine if he takes off and realises his talent, could really go off and be great. So it's as per my thoughts heading into that draft an All-time great top end and one of those where I feel like a bit like with the 2001 draft, there will be debate as to who will be the best. Walsh has come out of the blocks like Judd did that year, but we might still have the Ablett or Hodge to emerge still. And I can't help but think Butters could be that Ablett if Walsh is the Judd if we're talking in equivalents in career trajectory.

Except it's not.

You continually called Tarryn Thomas a 3rd round prospect at the time that lacked any offensive hurt factor. You said you preferred Jarrod Cameron to him despite them being nothing alike.

Thomas looks every bit like becoming a generational midfielder for the club and may be one of the most damaging players in the league per possession at the moment.

 

[Knightmare]

Have you watched his first few games? He’s unreal. Still way too early but from what I have already seen he will at least the equal if not better than those two. No doubt at all.

I watched DGB's game v Melbourne and he looked really good there which is precisely why I'm paying him the respect to say that he could be worth what was paid for him and that after those top-4 that he could be that next most valuable guy.

Again my point from my earlier posts on DGB remains. Is he a key defender? Third tall? I'll need to see how he develops physically to answer that as he's still very skinny and I can't help but think remains that way. Might he be something like Tom Stewart or Jordan Ridley without as good of a kick? Could he become Jake Lever which might be closer to the mark? They're the kinds of names I'm thinking he could if things work out become a slightly worse version of which shouldn't be anything to be offended by as they're some of the best players of their types in the competition.

Logan McDoanld, Riley Thilthorpe, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan. Those guys look like top-10 in the competition key forwards for the future and Nik Cox could well become one of absolute best tall wings. Given the positional scarcity and how much rarer it is to find players in their position of that calibre, I'd be taking all four of those guys before DGB at this time without giving it a second thought.

Would I take DGB ahead of the likes of Phillips, Powell, Gulden, Campbell, Jones, Reid, Perkins, Poulter, Berry etc. That I'd need to give thought to.

Just as a key defender, Reid having seen his debut v Brisbane was highly impressive and as with Cox, a lot better than I had expected for season one, and it looks like Essendon really have their player development together to their credit with all the players who have taken the next step this year. If you offered me my choice of one of Reid/DGB, I'd really want more time to decide that one, as they're both looking like they can develop into really good long term pieces, but I have to say if you put a gun to my head today and said 'choose' I'd go Reid, just feeling there is that greater certainty that beyond doubt he'll be tall and strong enough to be a genuine key defender, with the bonus of his footskills appealing.

So I'm not going to suggest DGB is an outright top-5 choice at this stage from 2020 as it's far too early, but secondly he's more someone I'd have in that conversation than clearly in at this point in time. Though it would be interesting to hear from others if they'd if they re-did the 2020 draft have DGB inside/outside their top-5s from 2020, and exactly at what number on their updated draft boards.

Except it's not.

You continually called Tarryn Thomas a 3rd round prospect at the time that lacked any offensive hurt factor. You said you preferred Jarrod Cameron to him despite them being nothing alike.

Thomas looks every bit like becoming a generational midfielder for the club and may be one of the most damaging players in the league per possession at the moment.

You seem to be mixing up two different and unrelated parts of my quote. I did say that 2018 had an all-time great top end. Top-5, top-10, first round. All-time, all-time.

You'd be right to say though that I didn't consider Thomas to be one of those strong links, just as I didn't with Chayce Jones either as a second in my view at the time reach inside the top-10.

And with the individuality on my draft board as I make my own evaluations on talent, there will be those hits and those misses and that's the opportunity for me to improve at what I do.

In hindsight it's looking like I'm on the money in thinking Jones was overrated, and even rating him at 20 in my power rankings hindsight suggests that's probably still too high to have rated him, but on the flipside I did underrate Thomas and didn't consider him as part of that super top end with Lukosius/Rankine/Smith/Walsh/King's/Blakey/Caldwell the special players I identified at that time who could all be stars of the competition. Rozee was one I missed from that and should have rated up there, as with in hindsight Butters also. Tarryn Thomas is starting to mount a case. And as you look back there will always be different names who turn out to be the best than the group you had, with some hits and misses among those.

At the time of the draft I did rate Cameron ahead of Thomas. As I did with 24 others. I didn't regard Thomas a third round prospect. That's an inaccuracy. There were players available after the second round I did rate ahead of Thomas though. Noah Gown (4th round - and he looked really good in his first year and not sure what happened in that second year but Essendon let him go too early it felt like, albeit his VFL play this year has been uninspiring) and Sydney Stack (undrafted - picked up in the PSP then played incredible footy in his first season before failing to take that next step last year and this year).

Cameron on the other hand I felt was highly likely to make it and become a very good small forward - but unfortunately he hasn't developed and taken those next steps as I had assumed he would given his talent.

I was at the time critical of Thomas' lack of offensive impact at the time of the draft in addition to the lack of improvement since really those two years out from the draft where already at that age he was exceptional, but didn't make as much progress as a good number of his peers. And Thomas as a 15/16 year old at the u18 champs at that time was generating drive off half-back, but I wasn't after that seeing the same impact offensively or any progression at all in those components of the game. If I'm to revise that 2018 draft, Thomas is obviously a top-10 pick from that draft and one of that top group of roughly 10, each of whom are respectively special talents.

Thomas is an improver. He's playing really good footy this year. Showed promise in year one and did better then than I expected also winning a good amount of his own ball for that age and stage, but it's this year that he has become a damaging player. He wasn't taking on the game like this, hurting teams with his disposal, hitting the scoreboard like this, or nearly as capable at stoppages as he has become with North Melbourne. I can see from his development and progression that he has been picking the mind of Aaron Hall and Ben Cunnington with the way he goes about it offensively and how he positions himself at stoppages respectively. He's a much more complete player and now much more able to play a complete game, rather than just either being good only offensively, or only defensively at a given time.

 

[Sphynx]

I was at the time critical of Thomas' lack of offensive impact at the time of the draft in addition to the lack of improvement since really those two years out from the draft where already at that age he was exceptional, but didn't make as much progress as a good number of his peers. And Thomas as a 15/16 year old at the u18 champs at that time was generating drive off half-back, but I wasn't after that seeing the same impact offensively or any progression at all in those components of the game. If I'm to revise that 2018 draft, Thomas is obviously a top-10 pick from that draft and one of that top group of roughly 10, each of whom are respectively special talents.

Thomas is an improver. He's playing really good footy this year. Showed promise in year one and did better then than I expected also winning a good amount of his own ball for that age and stage, but it's this year that he has become a damaging player. He wasn't taking on the game like this, hurting teams with his disposal, hitting the scoreboard like this, or nearly as capable at stoppages as he has become with North Melbourne. I can see from his development and progression that he has been picking the mind of Aaron Hall and Ben Cunnington with the way he goes about it offensively and how he positions himself at stoppages respectively. He's a much more complete player and now much more able to play a complete game, rather than just either being good only offensively, or only defensively at a given time.

He literally did all of these things for Tasmania in the Div 2 champs that year, which you admitted you never watched.

Still holds the Champion Data record for average rating in a Div 2 championships. He had a 28 disposal 5 goal game in it. Then backed it up with a 28 disposal 7 clearance 2.2 game. Won the kick test at the combine, which has translated to AFL, he's one of the best kicks in the league.

People compared him to Harley Bennell in 2018, which you shot down at the time, as you said he didn't have anywhere near the same offensive hurt factor.

He's actually ALOT like a young Bennell was at the Suns, if not more inside than what Harley was, given he's around 6"3.

I'll admit he's been a slow burn as a forward pocket type until Noble has gotten his hands on him, but that has absolutely no bearing on your opinion of him in 2018. He was a midfielder/half back/half forward for Tasmania and the Allies across 3 years.

I openly admit, not everyone can get every player right, I more had issue with your original comment claiming it was as you had predicted it, when in fact you never really rated Thomas at all in 2018.

There's about 40 shit fights with North fans in that thread to prove it.