Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Why exactly is there a need to convince KM of how great a particular player is or could be. He watches juniors. He makes assessments and has the confidence to put them out there. Many watch and disagree both at the time and post facto. But what difference does it make whether someone else has a subjective viewpoint which is different to his ? Why do you care if he rates DGB or TT lower than you do ? What difference does it make to you, TT or DGB ? Why not simply ask him for his view and then respectfully disagree using your data. At that point what is further to be gained ?
 
He literally did all of these things for Tasmania in the Div 2 champs that year, which you admitted you never watched.

Still holds the Champion Data record for average rating in a Div 2 championships. He had a 28 disposal 5 goal game in it. Then backed it up with a 28 disposal 7 clearance 2.2 game. Won the kick test at the combine, which has translated to AFL, he's one of the best kicks in the league.

People compared him to Harley Bennell in 2018, which you shot down at the time, as you said he didn't have anywhere near the same offensive hurt factor.

He's actually ALOT like a young Bennell was at the Suns, if not more inside than what Harley was, given he's around 6"3.

I'll admit he's been a slow burn as a forward pocket type until Noble has gotten his hands on him, but that has absolutely no bearing on your opinion of him in 2018. He was a midfielder/half back/half forward for Tasmania and the Allies across 3 years.

I openly admit, not everyone can get every player right, I more had issue with your original comment claiming it was as you had predicted it, when in fact you never really rated Thomas at all in 2018.

There's about 40 sh*t fights with North fans in that thread to prove it.

I can only evaluate what I can either get to in person or get footage of.

My prediction of the calibre of the top end of the 2018 draft had nothing to do with Tarryn Thomas. I'm not sure why you're putting those comments together as I wasn't seeing Thomas in my own power rankings at that time as part of that top group.

My comment was as predicted in 2018 that the 2018 had a super top end. There are 10s of comments between here and Twitter of me referring in 2018 to the 2018 draft as having a super top end and potentially all-time top end, from top-5, to top-10, to first round. You'll probably even finding the wording in a lot of those instances to be the very same or very similar. And without the 2018 draft being necessarily a super draft. You can get annoyed at me being on the money with that evaluation of the 2018 draft all you like.

I was looking at Lukosius/Rankine/Smith/Walsh/the King's/Blakey all as players whereby it doesn't matter the year, they would all be pick one contenders. And having that many players on that level is what I was viewing at that time as being completely wild and incredible about that top end, with that whole top-4 group, a group I'd expect more years than now would have featured as the first pick.

Thomas if you compare his first few seasons to what Bennell was doing, you'll find Bennell was on a different level, just as Bennell was in the junior ranks, in particular with how damaging he was offensively. Thomas wasn't finding that volume of footy nor impacting games offensively either in the form of hurt factor nor scoreboard impact like Bennell did at the same age and stage. There is a reason Bennell went pick 2 and Thomas didn't, even accounting for the sheer quality of the top end in 2018 which was as apparent then as it is now if you're to assess their relative levels of performance during the Div 1 U18 Champs - during which time Thomas was relative to a lot of the other top end options unimpressive and as per my reviews at the time lacking impact offensively, not hitting the scoreboard enough or finding a whole lot of the ball to be someone up the top end I was necessarily all that enthused by.

Of course knowing how Bennell's career went and how injuries in addition to personal issues wrecked things, and how he never surpassed the level he played in his second season, absolutely the expectation from this point onward is Thomas has by far the better career given he's continuing to develop, and even at the time of the draft having seen Bennell's career fizzling the hope would have been even then that Thomas can stick around and be a longer term piece.

Absolutely as per my earlier comment, my views towards Thomas have evolved since he was drafted, and have evolved further in recent weeks upon his continued improvement, just as is the case with all footballers as they either progress, stall or decline respectively. The interest I have in continuing to track players is seeing where I can improve for next time with upcoming drafts and from an opposition list analysis perspective looking out for trade/free agency opportunities as there are always undervalued players in the AFL system who can be had for far less than should be the case.

As for a stylistic comparison for Thomas, I was seeing Thomas in 2018 as being more-like Jack Martin at that time (without thinking he would be as good as I was projecting for Martin), due to how much I liked the defensive traits of both at that time. I can't imagine Tarryn would have taken any offense to me in one of my early season weekly wraps when I did that, with the hopes around Martin at that time. Tarryn's game has as already mentioned evolved since then, and it's great watching his progression, as opposed to Martin who has been another of those disappointing types to have plateaued and not developed nearly to expectation, as someone who should have developed into something more like a prime Dale Thomas had his game been maximised.
 
To his credit, he played well v Tom McDonald the other night. That's a great sign. With a few more games like that, he could well secure the #5 spot if I'm to complete a re-do at years end.
Why exactly is there a need to convince KM of how great a particular player is or could be. He watches juniors. He makes assessments and has the confidence to put them out there. Many watch and disagree both at the time and post facto. But what difference does it make whether someone else has a subjective viewpoint which is different to his ? Why do you care if he rates DGB or TT lower than you do ? What difference does it make to you, TT or DGB ? Why not simply ask him for his view and then respectfully disagree using your data. At that point what is further to be gained ?
Knightmare I respectfully disagree with respect to your analysis and ultimate summation of Denver Grainger-Barrass' potential as an AFL player. I think the only point I need to raise in support is to highlight Grainger-Barrass didn't play on Tom McDonald on the weekend. That was Tim obrien. This is an understandable mistake to make given they are both tall skinny rangas. If you were indeed watching O'Brien and mistaking him for DGB, it is completely understandable you would not be as bullish on his potential.
 

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Knightmare I respectfully disagree with respect to your analysis and ultimate summation of Denver Grainger-Barrass' potential as an AFL player. I think the only point I need to raise in support is to highlight Grainger-Barrass didn't play on Tom McDonald on the weekend. That was Tim obrien. This is an understandable mistake to make given they are both tall skinny rangas. If you were indeed watching O'Brien and mistaking him for DGB, it is completely understandable you would not be as bullish on his potential.

I thought I saw them together at times in a few contests. In any case, McDonald was largely invisible and DGB was intercepting, aggressive in his attack on the ball aerially, aggressive in those few contests he was involved in and an effective third man up when he was playing loose. So those signs are there that he can play at AFL level and what I took out of the game which is consistent with who he has been over the last year anyway though up a level which is what you look for.

It's obvious with the usage of all the key defenders - Hartigan/Frost/O'Brien that Hawthorn have in there they're worried about exposing DGB to anyone with size. Hopefully he develops physically in time and eventually shows he can become a genuine key defender and play v stronger key forwards, as there hasn't been a game at any level I've seen him look for those matchups against those bigger boys.
 
I thought I saw them together at times in a few contests. In any case, McDonald was largely invisible and DGB was intercepting, aggressive in his attack on the ball aerially, aggressive in those few contests he was involved in and an effective third man up when he was playing loose. So those signs are there that he can play at AFL level and what I took out of the game which is consistent with who he has been over the last year anyway though up a level which is what you look for.

It's obvious with the usage of all the key defenders - Hartigan/Frost/O'Brien that Hawthorn have in there they're worried about exposing DGB to anyone with size. Hopefully he develops physically in time and eventually shows he can become a genuine key defender and play v stronger key forwards, as there hasn't been a game at any level I've seen him look for those matchups against those bigger boys.

He's already filled out a lot since draft night. I remember being concerned about Jacob Weitering for the same reason but he's developed into exactly what Carlton would have hoped. I'm quietly confident DGB will bulk up even more but use his elite reading of the ball in flight and jumping ability to cover any size deficiency on the Gorilla forwards in the future.

The one I'm not so confident of filling out is Will Day. He's gotten taller though which is clear to see from the naked eye.
Even if he doesn't fill out I think we've got a future star on our hands. Could be anything between Lachie Whitfield and Nat Fyfe depending on how his body and strength develops over the next 3 years.
 
He's already filled out a lot since draft night. I remember being concerned about Jacob Weitering for the same reason but he's developed into exactly what Carlton would have hoped. I'm quietly confident DGB will bulk up even more but use his elite reading of the ball in flight and jumping ability to cover any size deficiency on the Gorilla forwards in the future.

The one I'm not so confident of filling out is Will Day. He's gotten taller though which is clear to see from the naked eye.
Even if he doesn't fill out I think we've got a future star on our hands. Could be anything between Lachie Whitfield and Nat Fyfe depending on how his body and strength develops over the next 3 years.

Weitering was never small. When he was drafted he was 90kg already and he has a late year birthday (either November or December top of mind). He was a relatively loose checker defensively and struggled containing guys on the lead as he lacked speed relatively to go through his weaknesses of the time, but physical size/strength was never anything I worried about with Weitering as a junior. He had the kick/size/strength/intercepting/marking capabilities.

Will Day missed that 10 or so week period of games, so I wouldn't read too much into any relative lack of development there. He'll keep improving, though I'm not seeing him becoming that franchise player or that Whitfield or Fyfe calibre piece. Day might be able to develop into something like Hawthorn's Kade Simpson equivalent though which obviously would be an excellent career outcome if he can do that, and he is taller, so take that as he could be a modern version of that.
 
Weitering was never small. When he was drafted he was 90kg already and he has a late year birthday (either November or December top of mind). He was a relatively loose checker defensively and struggled containing guys on the lead as he lacked speed relatively to go through his weaknesses of the time, but physical size/strength was never anything I worried about with Weitering as a junior. He had the kick/size/strength/intercepting/marking capabilities.

Will Day missed that 10 or so week period of games, so I wouldn't read too much into any relative lack of development there. He'll keep improving, though I'm not seeing him becoming that franchise player or that Whitfield or Fyfe calibre piece. Day might be able to develop into something like Hawthorn's Kade Simpson equivalent though which obviously would be an excellent career outcome if he can do that, and he is taller, so take that as he could be a modern version of that.

How was kade's intercepting/overhead ability?

Again, most hawks supporters would be pretty aggrieved at this ceiling and the appropriateness of the comparison. Anyway... Thanks for taking time to share an opinion.

Would you take lukosious or day as your HBF for the next decade?
 
How was kade's intercepting/overhead ability?

Again, most hawks supporters would be pretty aggrieved at this ceiling and the appropriateness of the comparison. Anyway... Thanks for taking time to share an opinion.

Would you take lukosious or day as your HBF for the next decade?

Kade was a good mark. 13 straight seasons of 100+ marks and was pretty consistently around that 140 mark, had some seasons with 10+ contested marks which is very solid from a medium size defender/wing and while I don't have any intercept mark numbers for him, he read it well and could take his share of intercept marks. If Day is playing to Simpson's level, he's doing great.

Out of Lukosius and Day, Lukosius for me is a clear-cut choice, and obviously that shouldn't be taken as a knock against Day who I've already extensively complemented in suggesting he could be something like another Kade Simpson if things work out for him. The separating factors for me are not only that Lukosius has the extra height and he has yet to miss a game to my knowledge top of mind (durability is the best ability), but then on top of that is someone where my expectation is that he leads or comes top-5 each year in metres gained, kicks and marks per game, and develops into if he isn't already the competition's premier kick. He's already pretty much there at 2nd for metres gained in the competition both for total and average per game, he's equal 5th for average marks (4th for total) and 11th for kicks (7th for total). If he's to stay in defence, I'm also expecting improved intercept mark and intercept possession numbers which should further enhance his numbers in those other categories. There is broadly for Gold Coast a really nice group of intercepters around him so that does somewhat limit his need to be prolific in those areas, but he's a very good reader of the play and should be looking to ramp up those numbers quite considerably on top of what he already does. In any case, Lukosius should be pushing to be an All-Australian next year, and would already as we speak today would be if I was to complete one, a part of my All-Australian second team which speaks to how good he already is for a third year tall.
 
Weitering was never small. When he was drafted he was 90kg already and he has a late year birthday (either November or December top of mind). He was a relatively loose checker defensively and struggled containing guys on the lead as he lacked speed relatively to go through his weaknesses of the time, but physical size/strength was never anything I worried about with Weitering as a junior. He had the kick/size/strength/intercepting/marking capabilities.

Will Day missed that 10 or so week period of games, so I wouldn't read too much into any relative lack of development there. He'll keep improving, though I'm not seeing him becoming that franchise player or that Whitfield or Fyfe calibre piece. Day might be able to develop into something like Hawthorn's Kade Simpson equivalent though which obviously would be an excellent career outcome if he can do that, and he is taller, so take that as he could be a modern version of that.

I loved Kade Simpson, but most Hawthorn supporters will be expecting more from Will than Kade was able to produce. Two of our 4 wins this season most likely would have resulted in losses had Day not been playing. His performances against Essendon and GWS showed maturity and skill well beyond his years.

From an outside perspective I can see the comparison being a skinny half back flanker with good skills and courage. But it ends there on a surface level. I followed Kade Simpson very closely as he was a fantasy team mainstay but he never possessed the ability in the air, agility and clean hands off the deck that Will already has already shown in his 16 games. Kade was fine at those things but certainly wasn't doing it in his early days.
 
I loved Kade Simpson, but most Hawthorn supporters will be expecting more from Will than Kade was able to produce. Two of our 4 wins this season most likely would have resulted in losses had Day not been playing. His performances against Essendon and GWS showed maturity and skill well beyond his years.

From an outside perspective I can see the comparison being a skinny half back flanker with good skills and courage. But it ends there on a surface level. I followed Kade Simpson very closely as he was a fantasy team mainstay but he never possessed the ability in the air, agility and clean hands off the deck that Will already has already shown in his 16 games. Kade was fine at those things but certainly wasn't doing it in his early days.

You're right that Day does have a few more tricks to go with that extra height (I'd even add on top of what you already said his work through traffic and decision making in close is exceptional), and he's at the same age the better footballer as Kade wasn't great early days himself, coming on later himself, but that's roughly where I'm seeing Day's ceiling and the possible level of standing in the game he can reach, with my view being that the standard of competition over time gradually improves and players are also at all positions across the field getting taller on average.

As Simpson was for Carlton, Day I don't believe will ever be Hawthorn's best player, or that player you'd ever want to be building around as that franchise player. I don't see him ever becoming the kind of contested ball winner/match winner to achieve that, composed and calm as he is under pressure, and in fairness to him I do think he will as he gets stronger become a more able contested ball winner. Day could be a top-5, maybe even top-3 on list calibre piece at the peak of his powers which is still obviously a great outcome. Maybe not what Hawthorn fans might be hoping, but I do feel like Hawthorn need higher level young stars who are better talents than Day to build around as those top 1-3 on list level pieces if looking to build a competitive side.
 
Hey knightmare. What comparison to a current AFL player would you give to Campbell Chesser? And what do you see as his draft range? Also do you see josh sinn sliding a bit due to the fact that he seems quiet injury prone?
 
Hey knightmare. What comparison to a current AFL player would you give to Campbell Chesser? And what do you see as his draft range? Also do you see josh sinn sliding a bit due to the fact that he seems quiet injury prone?

Players can be injury prone as junior but then have good runs at AFL level, so I don't see clubs discriminating against Sinn on that basis unless medical exams come back suggesting there is some problem of long term concern.

Chesser I find difficult to compare to an AFL player at this stage as he's yet to show in any of the games I've watched of him to date AFL talent. First name that comes to mind is David Mackay if I have to put him aside an AFL name. Chesser as with Mackay has pretty good speed, it's mostly his run that appears to be his strength at this stage. Chesser has had his injury issues which is why I've yet to see him playing his best footy. Perhaps if he plays better footy in the second half of the year I might have a more flattering comparison for you. He's not currently on my draft board and I don't see his draft range as being all that clear as he hasn't played good footy yet this year, but I could see him landing in possibly the second round if the draft was held tomorrow, with his reputation playing a part in that.
 
Knightmare are you unhappy with where you saw Walsh and Bailey Smith based on where they are at now? Were you wrong about Sam Walsh?
 

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Knightmare are you unhappy with where you saw Walsh and Bailey Smith based on where they are at now? Were you wrong about Sam Walsh?

Walsh has developed into a better player than expected. No doubt about it. I didn't expect him developing the power or strength through the waist that he has developed, and his kicking also has come a long way to his credit. Contested ball winning while I knew it would be good and was good during the juniors, again, on a higher level than I expected. So he's needless to say he's playing excellent football. For a feel for what I was looking for Walsh to develop into, I felt like for quality, he could be something like a peak Josh Kelly. And Walsh to his credit is already passing that level by.

Smith is playing good football still, but I did expect him to be more advanced and I did believe in 2018 at the time of the draft that he would be the better player. There were times in both his first and second season where he did look slightly better than Walsh, with Walsh only during the second half of last year for me moving ahead in that head-to-head and reaching that higher standard of football. Part of why it hasn't happened is the Dogs have an incredible midfield and there aren't the opportunities for him to play inside every week, which is where he'll play his best footy once he has an extended shot at it, and I suspect on top of that his mental health challenges have played a part in impeding to some extent on his development.

My analysis at the time in 2018 was that Smith should be the better kick as he was in the juniors (no longer the case), the better contested ball winner (no longer the case), and the more explosive and powerful (again, Walsh has really improved in those facets and Smith no longer is distinctly better in those areas either).

With Walsh's development, with a higher current level of football and with his durability on a level where he has yet to miss a match, and I'd be taking Walsh if you said I could have the career of one or the other for my team. I would still probably have said Smith coming into the season, but it's clear at least for the time being until Smith gets those expanded midfield minutes and develops further through there that Walsh has the edge at this time in that direct comparison.
 
Walsh has developed into a better player than expected. No doubt about it. I didn't expect him developing the power or strength through the waist that he has developed, and his kicking also has come a long way to his credit. Contested ball winning while I knew it would be good and was good during the juniors, again, on a higher level than I expected. So he's needless to say he's playing excellent football. For a feel for what I was looking for Walsh to develop into, I felt like for quality, he could be something like a peak Josh Kelly. And Walsh to his credit is already passing that level by.

Smith is playing good football still, but I did expect him to be more advanced and I did believe in 2018 at the time of the draft that he would be the better player. There were times in both his first and second season where he did look slightly better than Walsh, with Walsh only during the second half of last year for me moving ahead in that head-to-head and reaching that higher standard of football. Part of why it hasn't happened is the Dogs have an incredible midfield and there aren't the opportunities for him to play inside every week, which is where he'll play his best footy once he has an extended shot at it, and I suspect on top of that his mental health challenges have played a part in impeding to some extent on his development.

My analysis at the time in 2018 was that Smith should be the better kick as he was in the juniors (no longer the case), the better contested ball winner (no longer the case), and the more explosive and powerful (again, Walsh has really improved in those facets and Smith no longer is distinctly better in those areas either).

With Walsh's development, with a higher current level of football and with his durability on a level where he has yet to miss a match, and I'd be taking Walsh if you said I could have the career of one or the other for my team. I would still probably have said Smith coming into the season, but it's clear at least for the time being until Smith gets those expanded midfield minutes and develops further through there that Walsh has the edge at this time in that direct comparison.

yeah perfect summation and coming from someone who still thinks Rankine is the most talented junior footballer I've ever seen I will never critisise anyone whose prediction doesn't work out exactly was they previously saw it. Sometimes it just doesn't pan out the way it seems it will. However as a caveat I do think if you can't interview the person it puts you at a distinct disadvantage in my humble opinion.
 
yeah perfect summation and coming from someone who still thinks Rankine is the most talented junior footballer I've ever seen I will never critisise anyone whose prediction doesn't work out exactly was they previously saw it. Sometimes it just doesn't pan out the way it seems it will. However as a caveat I do think if you can't interview the person it puts you at a distinct disadvantage in my humble opinion.
So much more to it than just what we see on field, probably the most important parts happen away from the 3 hours you see on gameday
 
How was kade's intercepting/overhead ability?

Again, most hawks supporters would be pretty aggrieved at this ceiling and the appropriateness of the comparison. Anyway... Thanks for taking time to share an opinion.

Would you take lukosious or day as your HBF for the next decade?

Hawks fans would be aggravated at Will Day becoming Kade Simpson?

Jesus, good luck to the next young players they draft. You cannot possibly be upset at a youngster being projected to be a 300+ game BnF winner (who won the BnF in a team that made a Semi Final, before anyone says that they were awful when he won it).

Not saying Day isn't a good player; he's great for his age and definitely has a high ceiling, but to say that Simpson as a comparison is "aggravating" is pretty laughable.
 
Hawks fans would be aggravated at Will Day becoming Kade Simpson?

Jesus, good luck to the next young players they draft. You cannot possibly be upset at a youngster being projected to be a 300+ game BnF winner (who won the BnF in a team that made a Semi Final, before anyone says that they were awful when he won it).

Not saying Day isn't a good player; he's great for his age and definitely has a high ceiling, but to say that Simpson as a comparison is "aggravating" is pretty laughable.
The great thing for all us Hawks supporters is that we have watched every minute of day's 16 game career. We have seen him in game 13 odd against GWS have 28 disp, 7 i50, 10 intercept poss, 10cp had a HBF, and some of the most elite line breaking mazey runs you will see at afl, that you can only appreciate with the eye test. I don't think it's unreasonable to assume in game 13 with 9 coaches votes and probably 3 brownlow votes, we think "jeez imagine when he is doing this consistently". So while Kade Simpson was a very good and durable champion of Carlton, hawthorn supporters generally see day as our most impactful player right now. Look on our board, we have a very high ceiling on him. Sure he could do a Ryan Burton and show early promise but we are staying bullish.
 
yeah perfect summation and coming from someone who still thinks Rankine is the most talented junior footballer I've ever seen I will never critisise anyone whose prediction doesn't work out exactly was they previously saw it. Sometimes it just doesn't pan out the way it seems it will. However as a caveat I do think if you can't interview the person it puts you at a distinct disadvantage in my humble opinion.

The impact of club interviews is an interesting point. And same goes with knowing their backgrounds.

It does need to be a component of club evaluations.

Though having seen a lot of really hard working, studious and smart types fail to develop or develop to expectation and others who present as lazy and disinterested go on and become great players and far better than their more professional counterparts, backing in talent is for the most part the best method.

You can have Tom Scully as a pick 1 who wouldn't touch alcohol, is a professional in everything he does and already has professional AFL habits coming into the system or you can have Dustin Martin at pick 3 who left school at the end of year 9 and comes from a broken home and a father who was part of a bikie gang.

Or in 2010 you can look at Jack Darling who had his supposed character flaws of the time who dropped into the 20s and as we now know shouldn't have dropped.

You can have a De Goey who is widely considered not to be a particularly hard trainer, but he has developed a lot since his junior days and is one of those examples whereby some guys can develop those points of difference to develop, even if they're not putting in the same work as many of their peers.

It's one of the more nuanced components in talent ID and it's more-so if I was looking into kids, looking at their drive and hunger and how they will adapt to the challenging environment and handle all the components that come with being an AFL footballer more-so ahead of their character/personality. And even it can mean missed opportunities if you put too heavy a weighting into those areas. So it's one of those imprecise science things where it's likely always to be somewhat hit and miss, even with all the information and interviews to get that broader context into them and who they are.
 
I actually had he exact same concerns with Thomas as Knightmare did. He didn’t get much of the footy or do much in any national championship game or vfl rep game. He also didn’t have a set position.

Needless to say I’m very happy now though.
 
Hi KM - interested in your Thoughts on Josh Rachele - Do you think he can develop into an elite small forward at the next level? What would his best player comparison be?




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Hi KM - interested in your Thoughts on Josh Rachele - Do you think he can develop into an elite small forward at the next level? What would his best player comparison be?

Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Rachele is nice both as a small forward and pushing through the midfield. He's the best kick in the draft, but he's also a seriously good stoppage player and first possession winner. I wouldn't pigeonhole him to playing forward as he may even be a little better through the midfield.

I've compared Rachele in my recent power rankings to Alan Didak. He's smaller than Didak and when he's placed at stoppages is a better first possession winner, but a similarly incredible kick and talent forward of centre, though he does as a forward have his inconsistencies, but he also has his match winning games, whether it's kicking six goals or killing teams with his passes to i50 targets.
 
Rachele is nice both as a small forward and pushing through the midfield. He's the best kick in the draft, but he's also a seriously good stoppage player and first possession winner. I wouldn't pigeonhole him to playing forward as he may even be a little better through the midfield.

I've compared Rachele in my recent power rankings to Alan Didak. He's smaller than Didak and when he's placed at stoppages is a better first possession winner, but a similarly incredible kick and talent forward of centre, though he does as a forward have his inconsistencies, but he also has his match winning games, whether it's kicking six goals or killing teams with his passes to i50 targets.
I’ve read elsewhere he’s a Toby Green type mid forward.
 
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