Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Interesting as Geelong are almost at the stage of needing a replacement KPB. One querry, as he was delisted there is speculation that he is a FA..can you clarify if he hast to be drafted or could simply pick a club as a DFA

Schlensog is eligible as a delisted free agent given he was delisted last offseason, as it applies to both the current and previous offseason delisting's. That mechanic slipped my mind actually.

It will be interesting to see whether a club takes Schlensog as a DFA or through one of the drafts as depending on how highly desired he is, a club may not pick him as a DFA but may go into the draft and then choose to take him if another target they may rate ahead of him isn't there.

I rate Schlensog highly, so I'd be taking him at the first available opportunity, but we'll have to see how clubs view him later in the year given he wasn't taken during the MSD.

 

[briztoon]

I'm aware of the same preseason reports of Rayner regarding his running gains and far improved work ethic. And absolutely as per your thoughts it's absolutely where he needed to improve. It's speculation how much he may have improved, and I can only speak of my own expectations, but I was looking for Rayner to move into the 16-18d per game territory while maintaining his 1 goal per game mark. If you were to quantify the step you were hoping Rayner would take this year had he not gotten hurt, what precisely do you believe Rayner could have managed this year?

Have your expectations of Rayner for 2022 diminished at all? Or do you remain optimistic he will become another Petracca? And more specifically something like the Petracca we saw last year and again this year?

As per my prior post, I still give Rayner a chance to reach that 2017-2018 Petracca level, and sure Rayner is looked set to play a greater proportion of his minutes through the midfield, but in terms of impact and performance, that's nonetheless around where I see Rayner getting to injuries permitting.

Coming in to the season, my expectations were for Rayner to play a lot more midfield.

I didn’t have any quantifiable metrics in mind, I wanted to see how he went.

Nor do I have any expectations for Rayner next year. I want to see how he looks during the preseason. I hope he keeps his power and explosion, his burst and speed.

Watching Rayner, he has the same skill sets and physical attributes that Petracca has, but he’s never played through the midfield as much as Petracca has, at any point in his career.

Work ethic has never been Rayner’s problem at the Lions, not from day one. I don’t know where you get that from. Conditioning on the other hand, coming back from the off-season is a different story.

Rayner has always been a poor endurance runner. He has worked and worked on it. But it’s something he’ll probably struggle with his whole career. You can’t fight genetics there.

 

[Knightmare]

Coming in to the season, my expectations were for Rayner to play a lot more midfield.

I didn’t have any quantifiable metrics in mind, I wanted to see how he went.

Nor do I have any expectations for Rayner next year. I want to see how he looks during the preseason. I hope he keeps his power and explosion, his burst and speed.

Watching Rayner, he has the same skill sets and physical attributes that Petracca has, but he’s never played through the midfield as much as Petracca has, at any point in his career.

Work ethic has never been Rayner’s problem at the Lions, not from day one. I don’t know where you get that from. Conditioning on the other hand, coming back from the off-season is a different story.

Rayner has always been a poor endurance runner. He has worked and worked on it. But it’s something he’ll probably struggle with his whole career. You can’t fight genetics there.

I could well be wrong with Rayner re. his work ethic early days. I believed I read it somewhere that Rayner admitted that he didn't push himself or put as much work in as he needed to, and only last year started to develop the level of professional habits to the level he needed to develop with last offseason the big one where he really put in the work in an attempt and improve his endurance to make the jump after stagnant years 2+3. I'm more than happy to be corrected though as I don't follow what players talk about at all closely.

 

[Turbocat]

Schlensog is eligible as a delisted free agent given he was delisted last offseason, as it applies to both the current and previous offseason delisting's. That mechanic slipped my mind actually.

It will be interesting to see whether a club takes Schlensog as a DFA or through one of the drafts as depending on how highly desired he is, a club may not pick him as a DFA but may go into the draft and then choose to take him if another target they may rate ahead of him isn't there.

I rate Schlensog highly, so I'd be taking him at the first available opportunity, but we'll have to see how clubs view him later in the year given he wasn't taken during the MSD.

I have not see any of him since he left Geelong. So it would be interesting to see his areas of improvement. When do DFA's have to be listed. Can a club wait till post draft? Can , for example , a club hope to get a young CPB in draft, but failing to get the player they want , then take sch.

 

[Knightmare]

I have not see any of him since he left Geelong. So it would be interesting to see his areas of improvement. When do DFA's have to be listed. Can a club wait till post draft? Can , for example , a club hope to get a young CPB in draft, but failing to get the player they want , then take sch.

There is a lot of flexibility as to how DFAs can get listed. Before the draft there are windows, and there is the opportunity after the draft during the preseason supplemental period.

 

[Big_Newon]

Worpel, Scrimshaw, Day, Newcombe, Maginness, Cousins (the oldest at 23.)

Bramble and CJ.

 

[Big_Newon]

If I'm looking at who will be the best player rather than who is best today, my order: Simpkin, LDU and Thomas for me are a clear top-3 with each of those picks clear-cut to me at their respective spots. Phillips, Powell and Stephenson the next 3. Phillips and Powell are hard to separate and both should improve but Phillips with his worth ethic and leadership capabilities I'll give the slight edge to if I could go one or the other over the long run. Stephenson has his good games but remains erratic and I don't see being as consistent or reliable of a contributor as the others, though I still do value him and like that he can also impact up forward.



I'm aware of the same preseason reports of Rayner regarding his running gains and far improved work ethic. And absolutely as per your thoughts it's absolutely where he needed to improve. It's speculation how much he may have improved, and I can only speak of my own expectations, but I was looking for Rayner to move into the 16-18d per game territory while maintaining his 1 goal per game mark. If you were to quantify the step you were hoping Rayner would take this year had he not gotten hurt, what precisely do you believe Rayner could have managed this year?

Have your expectations of Rayner for 2022 diminished at all? Or do you remain optimistic he will become another Petracca? And more specifically something like the Petracca we saw last year and again this year?

As per my prior post, I still give Rayner a chance to reach that 2017-2018 Petracca level, and sure Rayner is looked set to play a greater proportion of his minutes through the midfield, but in terms of impact and performance, that's nonetheless around where I see Rayner getting to injuries permitting.



Schlensog is the guy I'd be bringing in as a Jones successor, if indeed I felt one were necessary (and I'd take him anyway probably as a best available late draft), though I do feel Jones has more than another 1-2 years left in him. Jones is still playing really good footy, both intercepting at a high level, but then beating his direct opponent so consistently in 1v1s. He remains to me one of the competition's most underrated key defenders.



Worpel actually was someone I rated a great deal higher in his draft than he went, rating him at 23 when he actually went at 45. And he's worth a lot more now than pick 45 or 23 obviously.

I agree with you on Worpel being a dramatic improver by foot. As a junior he always had the penetration, but to Hawthorn's credit, and I don't know how they develop guys into good kicks, but they've made Worpel into a very good kick in no time as with many others past and present.

I don't see Worpel ever become Dusty or Dusty-esque. He has similar power. But he doesn't have any of the same forward craft or impact forward of centre be it scoring his own goals or setting up teammates. Also as a midfielder I don't see Worpel ever quite hitting that best in the competition level stoppage player as someone I see likely to be pretty consistently that next level down from that. Worpel could hit that 300 cp and 140 cl mark which are still elite markers, and he may even have a few seasons around that territory, but I'm not sure he necessarily hits the uber elite 350 cp+ and 160 cl+ markers to quantify specifically the heights I feel Worpel can reach which is still needless to say exceptional.

As a midfielder I'm always after guys who can win their own ball. Scrimshaw never was that guy and I'm not sure if he ever well. He's one where I'll believe it when I see it, as I'm yet to see it in the juniors, in the NEAFL/VFL or AFL. Completely agree re. his movement through traffic and kick. But I'm not sure as a ball winner he'll ever make those inroads and get to the necessary level to make that transition.

Day may with the added size and strength become that midfielder. That can't be discounted. We'll have to see what he looks like once he gets stronger.

If Hawthorn like Jeka forward, and he's someone Hawthorn have done remarkably well to develop to where he is, I'd be tempted by Jackson Callow as a key defence solution. All his attributes point towards him become an exceptional key defender. Hawthorn could pretty easily make that positional switch, take a Blake Schlensog as a mature age key defender late draft, maybe a Toby Conway as a ruckman mid-draft and prioritise midfielders with the other picks if Hawthorn are after a no frills offseason and mostly just focused in on the draft.

Callow would be a good move at full back. He is a 19 year old bear.

 

[briztoon]

I could well be wrong with Rayner re. his work ethic early days. I believed I read it somewhere that Rayner admitted that he didn't push himself or put as much work in as he needed to, and only last year started to develop the level of professional habits to the level he needed to develop with last offseason the big one where he really put in the work in an attempt and improve his endurance to make the jump after stagnant years 2+3. I'm more than happy to be corrected though as I don't follow what players talk about at all closely.

There was an article mid last season where he spoke about coming back from the 2019/20 off season about 8kg overweight, and only trimmed down during the season.

This preseason 2020/21 he came back in ripping shape, and looked the lightest he ever has. His running improved for him, but compared to the rest of the list, he’s still a poor endurance runner. He’s a burst/power runner over 20 to 30 meters.

 

[Sphynx]

Callow would be a good move at full back. He is a 19 year old bear.

Would get absolutely annihilated as a 1st or 2nd KPD, he'd almost have to be a Rampe style 3rd tall or a loose defender.

Undersized in height.
Much smaller wingspan than the 200cm forwards he'd be up against.
Slow foot speed
One of the worst vertical jumps in last years class.

He does what he does at the lower levels based on his forward craft and his strong hands. Doesn't get much separation at all athletically.

Basically everything you don't want in a defender to enable them to get above the pack and a fist on the ball. He's far too slow to play on the faster medium forwards also.

He wouldn't have the same marking advantage at AFL level as he did in juniors and the SANFL.

 

[Big_Newon]

Would get absolutely annihilated as a 1st or 2nd KPD, he'd almost have to be a Rampe style 3rd tall or a loose defender.

Undersized in height.
Much smaller wingspan than the 200cm forwards he'd be up against.
Slow foot speed
One of the worst vertical jumps in last years class.

He does what he does at the lower levels based on his forward craft and his strong hands. Doesn't get much separation at all athletically.

Basically everything you don't want in a defender to enable them to get above the pack and a fist on the ball. He's far too slow to play on the faster medium forwards also.

He wouldn't have the same marking advantage at AFL level as he did in juniors and the SANFL.

That is why he should play full back.

 

[Knightmare]

Callow would be a good move at full back. He is a 19 year old bear.

Callow would be well suited either at full back or centre half back.

He's so strong 1v1 and like Brian Lake once upon a time is so good at turning those contests into marks which gives me optimism that he could make that position his own.

Would get absolutely annihilated as a 1st or 2nd KPD, he'd almost have to be a Rampe style 3rd tall or a loose defender.

Undersized in height.
Much smaller wingspan than the 200cm forwards he'd be up against.
Slow foot speed
One of the worst vertical jumps in last years class.

He does what he does at the lower levels based on his forward craft and his strong hands. Doesn't get much separation at all athletically.

Basically everything you don't want in a defender to enable them to get above the pack and a fist on the ball. He's far too slow to play on the faster medium forwards also.

He wouldn't have the same marking advantage at AFL level as he did in juniors and the SANFL.

195cm and 96kg at 18 years of age isn't small. That's still for a key defender very solid.

It's not a prerequisite to be an athlete to be a key defender. Brian Lake was an absolute monster at full back not too long ago and is the best I've seen play that position. At Centre Half Back similarly with Jeremy McGovern who is the best at his position I've seen, he's no more athletic than Callow either. And again as with Lake, we're talking about guys of the same height and size.

Callow dominated the juniors in the NAB League in 2019, but played senior footy in Tasmania in 2020 and it was a League level this year before his 19th birthday he was dominating as the competition's premier contested mark.

He's not an athlete, he's a footballer, and if you're a great footballer, you don't have to be anything remarkable athletically.

Put him back and he'll win his 1v1s and take a good number of both intercept marks and contested marks. That's all he needs to do if he were to make that transition into defence.

 

[Sphynx]

Callow would be well suited either at full back or centre half back.

He's so strong 1v1 and like Brian Lake once upon a time is so good at turning those contests into marks which gives me optimism that he could make that position his own.



195cm and 96kg at 18 years of age isn't small. That's still for a key defender very solid.

It's not a prerequisite to be an athlete to be a key defender. Brian Lake was an absolute monster at full back not too long ago and is the best I've seen play that position. At Centre Half Back similarly with Jeremy McGovern who is the best at his position I've seen, he's no more athletic than Callow either. And again as with Lake, we're talking about guys of the same height and size.

Callow dominated the juniors in the NAB League in 2019, but played senior footy in Tasmania in 2020 and it was a League level this year before his 19th birthday he was dominating as the competition's premier contested mark.

He's not an athlete, he's a footballer, and if you're a great footballer, you don't have to be anything remarkable athletically.

Put him back and he'll win his 1v1s and take a good number of both intercept marks and contested marks. That's all he needs to do if he were to make that transition into defence.

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

McGovern has barely had an opponent for the last 6 years and he's one of the best intercept marks in history.

As I said, he would have to be played as a loose defender in a spare behind the ball system like WCE deploy.

He's not a FB and never will be, he would get eaten alive by the likes of McKay, King etc moving forward, not only on the lead, but also trying to defend them when out of position.

You have disregarded the Div 2 carnivals as irrelevant in the past, also the TSL when it came to Tarryn Thomas, you can't suddenly use it now as evidence as to Callow's body of work...

 

[briztoon]

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

McGovern has barely had an opponent for the last 6 years and he's one of the best intercept marks in history.

As I said, he would have to be played as a loose defender in a spare behind the ball system like WCE deploy.

He's not a FB and never will be, he would get eaten alive by the likes of McKay, King etc moving forward, not only on the lead, but also trying to defend them when out of position.

You have disregarded the Div 2 carnivals as irrelevant in the past, also the TSL when it came to Tarryn Thomas, you can't suddenly use it now as evidence as to Callow's body of work...

For what it’s worth, Harris Andrews gets towelled up by McKay and the Kings when he has to play an accountable defensive role as a defender.

Andrews is only really effective when he can play as a spare, third man up role.

Our defence is currently short handed with both Darcy Gardiner and Marcus Adams out injured.

Instead of asking Andrews to play a defensive role on one of Richmond’s key forwards last weekend, we played an undersized (and not match fit) defender in Ryan Lester on Riewoldt, to free up Andrews. Didn’t work out well for us.

Good teams game plan to take intercepting defenders out of the game. We do it to West Coast where McGovern has almost no impact against us. Richmond do it to us, so Andrews has limited impact.

Callow will get eaten alive at either end of the ground at AFL level.

 

[Warhorse]

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

Is this a joke? Lakes best seasons were at the Western Bulldogs

 

[Davo-27]

Is this a joke? Lakes best seasons were at the Western Bulldogs

Lake or Harris as he was once known as was great at the Dogs, we tried recruiting him for half a decade before he got fat and played as a forward, when finally the dogs parted with him, he really helped us with Gibson and Lake we had an unbeatable defensive set up.

 

[Boristown]

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

Huh? Lake was a 2 time AA defender at the Dogs.

 

[Knightmare]

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

McGovern has barely had an opponent for the last 6 years and he's one of the best intercept marks in history.

As I said, he would have to be played as a loose defender in a spare behind the ball system like WCE deploy.

He's not a FB and never will be, he would get eaten alive by the likes of McKay, King etc moving forward, not only on the lead, but also trying to defend them when out of position.

You have disregarded the Div 2 carnivals as irrelevant in the past, also the TSL when it came to Tarryn Thomas, you can't suddenly use it now as evidence as to Callow's body of work...

Every game has relevance, some more than others, with some competitions containing a greater concentration of future AFL talent than others those that should be watched most closely. Such can be said when comparing the Div 1 Champs or Div 2 Champs of old, just as can be made in a comparison between the SANFL and TSL. NAB League has a good concentration of talent also, with Oakleigh and Sandringham always in particular reliable recruiting grounds.

With Callow, there is no level he has failed at. He has dominated at all levels, with the SANFL the highest level he has dominated. He's unbelievably advanced for his age and no scrub even now.

There remain in the AFL today plodders for key position players. Some in their 20s, others even making it into their 30s and still on AFL lists. They get kept around for depth. It's the same story though to an even greater extent again with ruckmen. Clubs sometimes can be impatient and let a tall go too early here or there in which case they can always work their way back in via our state leagues as per Sam Collins and once upon a time James Podsiadly, though I'd suggest clubs actually tend to hold talls for longer than they should more often than not, though with veterans often let them go too soon.

Callow reads the game so well that he isn't commonly out of position, and when he gets into a 1v1 tussle, he's sensational. And if he needs to get stronger, I can't imagine he'll have any trouble with that. Height in key defenders is often overstated. Just 15 years ago we had 190cm key defenders and the vast majority were sub 195cm. A lot of those shorter ones made up for a relative lack of height or reach by being so strong, which Callow can. Not everyone today is 200cm. 195cm is more than sufficient by position with shorter and smaller key defenders holding down key defence posts today. I see him either being able to be loose checking or some combination of that with playing against key forwards and looking to convert a few of those into 1v1 works as per Lake.

 

[LittleG]

So you didn't read much of my post then?

Brian Lake was drafted 20 years ago. He was a run of the mill defender for his first 150 games at the Dogs, he regularly got a pantsing. Would Callow be afforded the same amount of time? No. You are remembering Lake for his last 50 games of a 250 game career.

McGovern has barely had an opponent for the last 6 years and he's one of the best intercept marks in history.

As I said, he would have to be played as a loose defender in a spare behind the ball system like WCE deploy.

He's not a FB and never will be, he would get eaten alive by the likes of McKay, King etc moving forward, not only on the lead, but also trying to defend them when out of position.

You have disregarded the Div 2 carnivals as irrelevant in the past, also the TSL when it came to Tarryn Thomas, you can't suddenly use it now as evidence as to Callow's body of work...

Lake AA full back at the bulldogs. Elite player but wasn’t quite as good at the Hawks. At the Hawks he didn’t need to be as good, as he had much less to do.

 

[pupstar]

Every game has relevance, some more than others, with some competitions containing a greater concentration of future AFL talent than others those that should be watched most closely. Such can be said when comparing the Div 1 Champs or Div 2 Champs of old, just as can be made in a comparison between the SANFL and TSL. NAB League has a good concentration of talent also, with Oakleigh and Sandringham always in particular reliable recruiting grounds.

With Callow, there is no level he has failed at. He has dominated at all levels, with the SANFL the highest level he has dominated. He's unbelievably advanced for his age and no scrub even now.

There remain in the AFL today plodders for key position players. Some in their 20s, others even making it into their 30s and still on AFL lists. They get kept around for depth. It's the same story though to an even greater extent again with ruckmen. Clubs sometimes can be impatient and let a tall go too early here or there in which case they can always work their way back in via our state leagues as per Sam Collins and once upon a time James Podsiadly, though I'd suggest clubs actually tend to hold talls for longer than they should more often than not, though with veterans often let them go too soon.

Callow reads the game so well that he isn't commonly out of position, and when he gets into a 1v1 tussle, he's sensational. And if he needs to get stronger, I can't imagine he'll have any trouble with that. Height in key defenders is often overstated. Just 15 years ago we had 190cm key defenders and the vast majority were sub 195cm. A lot of those shorter ones made up for a relative lack of height or reach by being so strong, which Callow can. Not everyone today is 200cm. 195cm is more than sufficient by position with shorter and smaller key defenders holding down key defence posts today. I see him either being able to be loose checking or some combination of that with playing against key forwards and looking to convert a few of those into 1v1 works as per Lake.

Serious question not trying to be smart but why was he over looked for so long by every team cause he does seem to have a bit going for him. Surly every club cannot get it so wrong as you seem to rate him very highly.

 

[Knightmare]

Serious question not trying to be smart but why was he over looked for so long by every team cause he does seem to have a bit going for him. Surly every club cannot get it so wrong as you seem to rate him very highly.

Players can be overlooked for years before being given chances. It won't be the first or last time clubs have been wrong, irrespective of what happens with Callow.

I could name Ben Brown as an obvious example where in both 2010 and 2011 I was strongly advocating he feature in the national draft and inside the first two rounds. He later got picked in 2013 out of the VFL.

I could say the same of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti who I liked in his draft year also but was picked many years later. That kind of thing happens, and I'm sure I won't be the only draft analyst who has names like that to have rated someone only for them to be overlooked for far too long.

With Callow, clubs look at his physical profile and would be quick to think - not athletic, not a modern unicorn, very physically developed and may have reduced upside as a result. Not interested. And just pass. That happens. Clubs routinely overlook those stronger bodied, less athletic key position players, and in my view often times to their detriment as it's opportunities missed some of the time if they completely rule out a specific type of player by position.

 

[Knightmare]

The greatest dynasty since 2000: Brisbane, Geelong, Hawthorn or Richmond?

Most All-Australians: Geelong
Most Premierships: Brisbane/Hawthorn/Richmond
Most Grand Finals: Brisbane/Hawthorn
Home and away wins: Geelong
Home and away percentage: Geelong
Combined best-22 totals: Geelong/Hawthorn

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OG6uOq-i5so

Who have you got?

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

The description of Callow reminds me of Sam Collins.

about 195cm.
Strong
Good overhead
Bit slow and not really a leaper.

collins goes alright.

 

[briztoon]

The description of Callow reminds me of Sam Collins.

about 195cm.
Strong
Good overhead
Bit slow and not really a leaper.

collins goes alright.

Collins is a significantly better athlete.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Would get absolutely annihilated as a 1st or 2nd KPD, he'd almost have to be a Rampe style 3rd tall or a loose defender.

Undersized in height.
Much smaller wingspan than the 200cm forwards he'd be up against.
Slow foot speed
One of the worst vertical jumps in last years class.

He does what he does at the lower levels based on his forward craft and his strong hands. Doesn't get much separation at all athletically.

Basically everything you don't want in a defender to enable them to get above the pack and a fist on the ball. He's far too slow to play on the faster medium forwards also.

He wouldn't have the same marking advantage at AFL level as he did in juniors and the SANFL.

LOL
He's 195/196cm at 19, was beasting men at SANFL level as a key forward and defender.
He's very quick in a straight line so not sure where you get that.
Has lost alot of fat, gained muscle and got alot leaner since last years draft class and drastically improved that part.


His marking ability would still be an advantage and beat 99% of players at AFL level his hands are literal vice. You're saying SANFL as if he's playing kids, he was dominating at both ends against men rofl.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Collins is a significantly better athlete.

Nah gotta disagree there, Callow since trialing pre season to now is a much much improved athlete and his straight line speed is a decent amount if not alot quicker than Collins and it goes on. Hands are better and ceiling is higher.