Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[theGav56]

I'm hopeful with Carltons disastrous end to the season we may look at potentially trading up from a pick 5-6 up to 2-3 to go after Callaghan as it's not as much of a reach as previously expected. To me I think he'd be a great part for our future midfield
All being smaller types who that lack penetrative kicks In Dow Walsh Carroll and perhaps Stocker. Cripps at his best provided a forward target but still lacked any real game breaking ability by foot.

Pretty sure KM rates Cerra ahead. But yeah, draft picks.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Pretty sure KM rates Cerra ahead. But yeah, draft picks.

If it were up to me I wouldn't go for Cerra over Callaghan purely due to salary cap pressures. I really like Cerra so if he ended up at the blues I'd be happy with it on the guarantee we can sign Walsh and move other pieces. Also have the personal belief that Callaghan will end up better but im just an armchair nuffie so who knows

 

[Mordecai]

Knightmare what do you think about the book Outliers as it relates to the National Draft?
In case you haven't read or heard of the book in one part he looks at Candian ice hockey players and how Canadians who were born in the first three months of the year have a much greater likelihood of becoming hockey stars.

Gladwell then describes the game, which was won by Vancouver. Later, he lists the roster of the Medicine Hat Tigers, which showed that 17 of the 25 players were born in January, February, March, or April.

Citing pioneering research by Canadian psychologist Roger Barnsley, Gladwell claims that the explanation for this is quite simple.

“It’s simply that in Canada the eligibility cutoff for age-class hockey is January 1,” he writes. “A boy who turns ten on January 2, then, could be playing alongside someone who doesn’t turn ten until the end of the year—and at that age, in preadolescence, a twelve-month gap in age represents an enormous difference in physical maturity.”

It's a bit similar to the Matthew Effect. More here.

Do you see any of this occurring with the 2021 draft crop? Do we underrate our bottom agers? And do you see the opposite - flat track bullys who are overrated?

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Knightmare what do you think about the book Outliers as it relates to the National Draft?
In case you haven't read or heard of the book in one part he looks at Candian ice hockey players and how Canadians who were born in the first three months of the year have a much greater likelihood of becoming hockey stars.



It's a bit similar to the Matthew Effect.

Do you see any of this occurring with the 2021 draft crop? Do we underrate our bottom agers? And do you see the opposite - flat track bullys who are overrated?

I read this book a few weeks ago and was wondering if anyone had completed a study similar. There are definitely stories out there of players overlooked from a young age in favour of idk, a jonty scharanberg type who just dominated at a certain age and stayed in the 'elite' squads

 

[Knightmare]

where was Mihocek taken? I thought he was rookie draft, or is he not counted as a success?

Mihocek is an obvious success and isn't the only one.

Knightmare, you rate Erasmum highly. It looks likely one of the WA clubs will have a pick around 8. Do you see one of the non-WA clubs being a strong chance of taking Erasmus before this?

I can't say I rate Erasmus that high. The talk is he could be the first WA prospect taken and clubs love his game, but he isn't one I'd at least be comfortable taking top-10 off of those games I've seen. By foot he really struggles.

I don't see any reason a club outside WA would skip on Erasmus if they seem him as the best player available at their pick.

West Coast would probably love to get him, though they tend to favour even more than local talents guys who have been good for a few years, so there could well be clubs from other states who have him relatively higher on their draft boards.

Knightmare what do you think about the book Outliers as it relates to the National Draft?
In case you haven't read or heard of the book in one part he looks at Candian ice hockey players and how Canadians who were born in the first three months of the year have a much greater likelihood of becoming hockey stars.

It's a bit similar to the Matthew Effect. More here.

Do you see any of this occurring with the 2021 draft crop? Do we underrate our bottom agers? And do you see the opposite - flat track bullys who are overrated?

I haven't read the book, but I'm well aware of the theory and have noticed a strong correlation with the concept in the AFL. And it's routinely seen through the junior programs with those included.

There is also unsurprisingly a higher proportion of players drafted in those first four months. I've read the numbers in the past in the AFL and there is a good number more, and you see it every year if you track the draft, there will on average be a higher proportion picked.

If we just get the projected top-4. Daicos? Jan 3. Horne mid year b-day. Darcy = July. Callaghan = April. And you can see a similar trend through the rest of the draft, and it happens every year. It doesn't mean you can't be born late year and be a star or go early, it's just relatively less likely they'll be taken, and relatively less likely they'll have the careers of some of those born earlier.

I do see a slight overrating of these earlier year birthdays, but there is also a slightly lower risk factor as there is less speculation and often greater development because more of them have been through junior programs and had more exposure.

Scouts still do give greater consideration sometimes to late year birthdays, and might also give them greater consideration the following year to an extent, but still could do more in that direction.

It's a concept I also think about and give consideration to and generally give them greater benefit of the doubt in terms of scope to develop. I could look at Jordon Butts as someone I rated top-20 in 2017. He is a December 31 birthday, but he led the TAC Cup in marks per game. He went undrafted in his draft year. Picked the next year in 2018 as a rookie by Adelaide. So there are sure to always be opportunities missed in terms of those late year birthdays and it's just giving them that benefit of the doubt slightly more with their development, and in terms of the junior program selections, they need to do the same.

In talking to some NAB League scouts and they're more interested or the ones I've met in the heights of the parents and thinking about that growth trajectory more-so than the time of year they're born, and that's a component, though even at that age and stage they could be giving the time of year greater consideration in that equation.

 

[briztoon]

This was discussed on last year’s draft coverage.

There has definitely been studies done by the AFL and clubs on it.

I can’t remember the exact statistics mentioned, but it went something like this.

Rep teams are significantly over represented by kids born in the first six months of the year.

At the National Draft, kids born in the first half of the year again outnumber kids born in the second half of the the year.

However, once you get to players who have been in the league 5 years or more, i.e players who have “made it”, it’s almost 50/50, like 49.3% to 50.7%.

So more late developers actually stay in the league, once they’re in the system.


Something that was noted by Brisbane draft watchers last year. We traded our our early picks, and not including our academy kids we drafted (even they were May and August births), the other kids were late year (September and December) births. Even our mid year rookie draft pick was a December birth.

 

[chopflop]

This was discussed on last year’s draft coverage.

There has definitely been studies done by the AFL and clubs on it.

I can’t remember the exact statistics mentioned, but it went something like this.

Rep teams are significantly over represented by kids born in the first six months of the year.

At the National Draft, kids born in the first half of the year again outnumber kids born in the second half of the the year.

However, once you get to players who have been in the league 5 years or more, i.e players who have “made it”, it’s almost 50/50, like 49.3% to 50.7%.

So more late developers actually stay in the league, once they’re in the system.


Something that was noted by Brisbane draft watchers last year. We traded our our early picks, and not including our academy kids we drafted (even they were May and August births), the other kids were late year (September and) December births. Even our mid year rookie draft pick was a December birth.

That's interesting.

 

[DocSholl]

Horne averaged 15.8d in the SA u18s in 2019.

Suspect he meant the start of last season when he was extremely dominant and got moved to South's senior side. He only turned 16 halfway through the 2019 season so he was underage for that level of competition.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

This was discussed on last year’s draft coverage.

There has definitely been studies done by the AFL and clubs on it.

I can’t remember the exact statistics mentioned, but it went something like this.

Rep teams are significantly over represented by kids born in the first six months of the year.

At the National Draft, kids born in the first half of the year again outnumber kids born in the second half of the the year.

However, once you get to players who have been in the league 5 years or more, i.e players who have “made it”, it’s almost 50/50, like 49.3% to 50.7%.

So more late developers actually stay in the league, once they’re in the system.


Something that was noted by Brisbane draft watchers last year. We traded our our early picks, and not including our academy kids we drafted (even they were May and August births), the other kids were late year (September and December) births. Even our mid year rookie draft pick was a December birth.

That's extremely interesting. Would be good to see some kind of data set on which clubs are consistently selecting those back half birthday kids and whether it's a function of where their picks are falling or if it's an active strategy.

Someone else though, I'm a bit busy

 

[ummmbont]

I'd say a floor of Willem Drew, with a ceiling not so similar to anyone we've seen as he provides a unique combination of pressure acts and ground ball winning on the move at speed where it's a sort of blend we haven't seen before, or at least that I can think of. I'll elaborate more on this in my weekly wrap where I cover Horne.

The Dusty/Petracca comparisons I don't like for so many reasons. He's not that forward and I don't see him becoming nearly that big bodied. But on the other hand, he's also a genuine two way player and embarrasses them both with the effort he applies working the other way and pressuring like his life depends on it. Overhead and as a contested ball winner I don't see him as Fyfe either, as I don't see him achieving that volume. Others here seem to disagree, but I'm not seeing Horne as likely to become the best midfielder in the competition. If there is a point in time where he becomes top-5, that's enormous and where I place his upside. With the mid case being something more like he should be a top 25 midfielder in the competition for a good stretch of his career, as that 10-35 calibre mid.



If I can have Cerra and Adelaide's 2022 first round pick or Horne. I'm going Cerra and the future pick, as I don't see meaningful separation between Horne and Cerra.

The bonus with Cerra is, he's the more versatile and skilled player, so he gives more options around the ground. He can play outside if you need him to, in defence, though I actually think he is untapped as a forward and should spend some time resting there when he's not playing through the midfield. He had junior games where he would kick 3-4 goals up front, so it's something else I'd be looking as with LDU to incorporate into his game and make into a weapon.

What if Bulldogs give Lipinski,Richards pick 1 2021/22
For pick 1 - 2021

Dogs get Horne,Darcy,Rakk,spec pic last

 

[Virgin Dog]

What if Bulldogs give Lipinski,Richards pick 1 2021/22
For pick 1 - 2021

Dogs get Horne,Darcy,Rakk,spec pic last

If you were in North's position, would you give up Pick 1 in return for presumably two late teens picks plus a couple of players who are individually worth something in the 2nd/3rd round each?

 

[ummmbont]

Hi mate got some news for you.

Josh Sinn is friends with my nephew has been told by 2 clubs in top 5 picks they are taking him..

 

[ummmbont]

If you were in North's position, would you give up Pick 1 in return for presumably two late teens picks plus a couple of players who are individually worth something in the 2nd/3rd round each?

If you want your club to climb the ladder
Both Richards pick 15 and lipinski make them a much stronger team
Plus picks 15 twice tempting

 

[briztoon]

That's extremely interesting. Would be good to see some kind of data set on which clubs are consistently selecting those back half birthday kids and whether it's a function of where their picks are falling or if it's an active strategy.

Someone else though, I'm a bit busy

I went through the Lions list.

22 players born January to June (including 3 in June 30).

23 players born July to December.


Early year births were leading 20 to 15 through the first 35 players on the list, then the late year births came home in a rush, including all 4 of our rucks.

4 of our 5 2017 draftees are late year births, including all 3 first round picks. Most notable is that the most likely of the 5 to be delisted, is the 1 early year birth.

All of 4 of our 2019 draftees were early year births, and all 4 had finished school the year before their draft year.

 

[briztoon]

If you were in North's position, would you give up Pick 1 in return for presumably two late teens picks plus a couple of players who are individually worth something in the 2nd/3rd round each?

No.

 

[briztoon]

If you want your club to climb the ladder
Both Richards pick 15 and lipinski make them a much stronger team
Plus picks 15 twice tempting

No.

 

[PMBangers]

Hi mate got some news for you.

Josh Sinn is friends with my nephew has been told by 2 clubs in top 5 picks they are taking him..

He'll be playing for two clubs? damn impressive!

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

He'll be playing for two clubs? damn impressive!

Max King and Harry McKay already doing it

 

[PMBangers]

What if Bulldogs give Lipinski,Richards pick 1 2021/22
For pick 1 - 2021

Dogs get Horne,Darcy,Rakk,spec pic last

Bulldogs would have to offer up a Naughton to get Pick 1, and I don't reckon Dogs fans want that

 

[Deadly Darcy]

If you want your club to climb the ladder
Both Richards pick 15 and lipinski make them a much stronger team
Plus picks 15 twice tempting

my goodness you post some utter tripe….
No team in the league would touch this with a barge poll. No player of fantasy footy would touch it with a barge poll. A trade scenario needs a win:win. This isn’t it….

 

[perplexed]

If you want your club to climb the ladder
Both Richards pick 15 and lipinski make them a much stronger team
Plus picks 15 twice tempting

Lol. It ain't happening.

BTW, I like Richards for a second rounder, but why would North give up a list spot to Lipinski? Just no!

 

[perplexed]

If you were in North's position, would you give up Pick 1 in return for presumably two late teens picks plus a couple of players who are individually worth something in the 2nd/3rd round each?

What else have you found in your skip?

 

[Peter Wallis]

What if Bulldogs give Lipinski,Richards pick 1 2021/22
For pick 1 - 2021

Dogs get Horne,Darcy,Rakk,spec pic last

As a Bulldogs supporter I say yes. In reality there is no way North would agree to that.

 

[Virgin Dog]

What else have you found in your skip?

I can offer you one slightly used Will Hayes. Surely that gets it over the line right

 

[Peter Wallis]

I can offer you one slightly used Will Hayes. Surely that gets it over the line right

Ryan Gardner and its a done deal.