Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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Hi knightmare, who do you fancy between Neil Erasmus and Matt Johnson as a later first round pick. Anything of quality you think could slip to west coasts second round picks in the way of midfielders?

Thanks chief.
 
Suspect he meant the start of last season when he was extremely dominant and got moved to South's senior side. He only turned 16 halfway through the 2019 season so he was underage for that level of competition.
Jason HorneDisposalsGoalsTackles
2019​
South Adelaide U18
15.8​
1.0​
3.5​
2019​
South Adelaide U16
29.1​
1.3​
5.1​
Impressive. Also has similar numbers compared Tom Powell last year as well as an 17yr old (few less disposals but more tackles as KM alludes to).
 
What if Bulldogs give Lipinski,Richards pick 1 2021/22
For pick 1 - 2021

Dogs get Horne,Darcy,Rakk,spec pic last

It's been covered, but clubs want the best piece in a deal.

It doesn't matter how many average pieces you throw in. One average piece doesn't secure you the top pick.

The closest thing I've seen was Lachie Weller for pick 2 = Andrew Brayshaw. It wasn't a great top end in 2017, we had Rayner at 1 and Dow at 3 after all, but Weller is fundamentally an average to above average piece.

Pick 1 is valued on another level. It's a market chip. It's something you can say to your fans - we got the best in this draft and that sells memberships.

Interestingly, pick 1 isn't something the Dogs need. The midfield is great, best in the league great. Horne isn't needed, he'd be relegated to playing across half-forward. Bailey Smith who in the long run may be the better mid isn't even able to play permanently inside, and that's with injuries. And the Dogs will want those picks. That late first round pick will help in matching bids on Darcy without going into deficit, and that future pick whether used or not at worst is a useful utility trade piece for next year.

Lipinski and Richards in combination could score the Dogs a second round pick. Throw in two late first rounders, and maybe a club gives up a mid first round pick if they're high on Lipinski.

Clubs don't like trading down. Early picks are consistently overvalued, so much so that trading down would be a key part of my trading strategy almost every year. And micro trades down. 1-2 picks at a time and scoring a piece out of that trade and repeating.

If North Melbourne could trade pick 1 down to 2 and gain Adelaide's first round pick, even if they're giving up say a second round pick in the process. That's a win. What if they move pick 2 down to Cerra and Fremantle's first round pick? (Many wouldn't as others value pick 2 more highly than I do) But I'd do that too. Maybe then if North Melbourne want a Lipinski, Richards and a couple of firsts from Western Bulldogs and the Dogs want to move up, maybe North move that Fremantle first and maybe a third rounder to do it, with that probably more-so around the right valuation, highly as I rate Lipinski. And that last deal is a deal I'd make as I like the utility value and the length of time of value future picks present. Cerra isn't necessarily coming to North Melbourne, nor would even Adelaide necessarily agree to this trade as they'd have to be desperate to move up and blind to the exceptional local opportunities available next year. But they're deal ideas used as examples of what North Melbourne would certainly benefit from if the likes of Lipinski and Richards are targets and they want those Dogs firsts.
 

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Hi knightmare, who do you fancy between Neil Erasmus and Matt Johnson as a later first round pick. Anything of quality you think could slip to west coasts second round picks in the way of midfielders?

Thanks chief.

Erasmus I'm expecting goes around pick 10, maybe even slightly inside based on the WA interest I'm hearing. Maybe it's a case of a late year birthday helping, and being a multi-positional player, but he's generally preferred.

If both are available late first round I'd pass on both personally and take someone I have closer to my best available player. Erasmus and Johnson have in roughly the same conversation. Erasmus I rated just the one spot higher in my September power rankings (see page 1) and I'd still give him that slight edge as at least he's improving, impacts in multiple positions and has been consistent as those points that make him preferable. But Johnson at his height, with his class is interesting if he develops.

Johnson could plausibly slip into the second round. But for those I'd target first. Bodhi Uwland I'd place a bid on and see if Gold Coast want him. Connor MacDonald would be a good choice as a midfielder in the second round if there. Mitch Knevitt could be one to consider if after a taller mid around that point. Ned Long is another capable tall mid. Zac Taylor if there could represent value as another midfielder who is playing good, productive football, though off of recent form he could push for first round selection.

In any case, it's a midfielders draft, so at most picks the best available will probably be a midfielder.
 
It's been covered, but clubs want the best piece in a deal.

It doesn't matter how many average pieces you throw in. One average piece doesn't secure you the top pick.

The closest thing I've seen was Lachie Weller for pick 2 = Andrew Brayshaw. It wasn't a great top end in 2017, we had Rayner at 1 and Dow at 3 after all, but Weller is fundamentally an average to above average piece.

Pick 1 is valued on another level. It's a market chip. It's something you can say to your fans - we got the best in this draft and that sells memberships.

Interestingly, pick 1 isn't something the Dogs need. The midfield is great, best in the league great. Horne isn't needed, he'd be relegated to playing across half-forward. Bailey Smith who in the long run may be the better mid isn't even able to play permanently inside, and that's with injuries. And the Dogs will want those picks. That late first round pick will help in matching bids on Darcy without going into deficit, and that future pick whether used or not at worst is a useful utility trade piece for next year.

Lipinski and Richards in combination could score the Dogs a second round pick. Throw in two late first rounders, and maybe a club gives up a mid first round pick if they're high on Lipinski.

Clubs don't like trading down. Early picks are consistently overvalued, so much so that trading down would be a key part of my trading strategy almost every year. And micro trades down. 1-2 picks at a time and scoring a piece out of that trade and repeating.

If North Melbourne could trade pick 1 down to 2 and gain Adelaide's first round pick, even if they're giving up say a second round pick in the process. That's a win. What if they move pick 2 down to Cerra and Fremantle's first round pick? (Many wouldn't as others value pick 2 more highly than I do) But I'd do that too. Maybe then if North Melbourne want a Lipinski, Richards and a couple of firsts from Western Bulldogs and the Dogs want to move up, maybe North move that Fremantle first and maybe a third rounder to do it, with that probably more-so around the right valuation, highly as I rate Lipinski. And that last deal is a deal I'd make as I like the utility value and the length of time of value future picks present. Cerra isn't necessarily coming to North Melbourne, nor would even Adelaide necessarily agree to this trade as they'd have to be desperate to move up and blind to the exceptional local opportunities available next year. But they're deal ideas used as examples of what North Melbourne would certainly benefit from if the likes of Lipinski and Richards are targets and they want those Dogs firsts.

As much as I rate Bailey Smith, he is too busy watching the ball to be an elite inside mid.
Maybe IF he works on his forward craft, he could become a Stringer style one way mid BUT at the moment there is plenty of footage showing Bailey not paying attention to his man and giving up multiple goals a game to his direct opponent. Perhaps this footage from just the last two weeks, will get Bailey to start playing better BUT at the moment he is a liability as an inside mid.

Watching the footage made you appreciate Horne’s defensive game more than I thought I would. I would now be more inclined to take Horne at 1 and let others bid on Daicos & Darcy after that.
 
AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Arlo Draper:

What impressed recruiters most though was his kicking, vision and decision making. After taking marks on the wing, Draper more than once located and hit targets by foot in the corridor with precision. He also later in the game showed on the move the composure to take his time, lower his eyes and find the leading inside 50m target.

Points of discussion: Am I on my own liking Sam Skinner and feeling like he's worth another shot at AFL level? He looks like a plug and play key defender going off of his play these past two weeks in particular.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...weekly-wrap-hobbs-does-top-10-chances-no-harm
 
AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Arlo Draper:



Points of discussion: Am I on my own liking Sam Skinner and feeling like he's worth another shot at AFL level? He looks like a plug and play key defender going off of his play these past two weeks in particular.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...weekly-wrap-hobbs-does-top-10-chances-no-harm
I was pretty impressed with Skinner aswell, deserves another shot for a club screaming for readymade key defensive depth.
 
KM, what pick is dylan stephens worth in a trade in this year's draft?
 
As much as I rate Bailey Smith, he is too busy watching the ball to be an elite inside mid.
Maybe IF he works on his forward craft, he could become a Stringer style one way mid BUT at the moment there is plenty of footage showing Bailey not paying attention to his man and giving up multiple goals a game to his direct opponent. Perhaps this footage from just the last two weeks, will get Bailey to start playing better BUT at the moment he is a liability as an inside mid.

Watching the footage made you appreciate Horne’s defensive game more than I thought I would. I would now be more inclined to take Horne at 1 and let others bid on Daicos & Darcy after that.

A liability as an inside mid? Yikes! Put Smith in Collingwood's midfield and after possibly Adams, he's that clear #2. No doubt he'll be asked to put more time and focus in defensively, and that's something that can and should develop with more experience. The forward of centre stuff is what I can't say I'm relying on Smith to develop. He'll be a gun mid, one of the best in the comp could be a possibility, though I haven't seen those signs or weapons to suggest he develops that forward craft, so I'm not sure that vision will come to fruition.

The more you watch Horne, and really watch his application defensively without the ball, the more it will stick out like a sore thumb. It's what he does every week and is what makes his game so impressive. It's just a bonus at stoppages that he can win it off the bounce at speed at stoppages as well as he does.

I was pretty impressed with Skinner aswell, deserves another shot for a club screaming for readymade key defensive depth.

Scouts will be watching closely every week given Horne/Roberts/Draper are there. Along with Schlensog, Skinner just seems like a plug and play. I'm not sure he even needs to be depth, I can name a number of teams with Skinner where he like Schlensog could walk straight into the best-22 if he continues with his current standard of play.

Do you have an opinion on Joseph Haines? I haven't minded him either for South Adelaide. Certainly can generate drive and has that long kick, although with those long shots on the weekend really needed to lower his eyes and look i50 for a target.

KM, what pick is dylan stephens worth in a trade in this year's draft?

Hasn't done a lot this season so value won't be high. I'd value him as being worth an early second round pick. He's in that same position as a McAsey where it's not clear if he's a long term player, but still being a recent high pick will still hold some value and probably have his fans.
 
Do you have an opinion on Joseph Haines? I haven't minded him either for South Adelaide. Certainly can generate drive and has that long kick, although with those long shots on the weekend really needed to lower his eyes and look i50 for a target.
29 next year, no thanks
 
AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Arlo Draper:



Points of discussion: Am I on my own liking Sam Skinner and feeling like he's worth another shot at AFL level? He looks like a plug and play key defender going off of his play these past two weeks in particular.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...weekly-wrap-hobbs-does-top-10-chances-no-harm
I was pretty impressed with Skinner aswell, deserves another shot for a club screaming for readymade key defensive depth.
Sam Skinner trained during the preseason with us with the view to possibly picking up in that pre-season supplemental period. Needless to say, he didn't show enough to get a spot. I might be wrong, but I think we had some inside info that with his injuries, he just wasn't athletic and agile enough to play KPP at the next level.
 
Sam Skinner trained during the preseason with us with the view to possibly picking up in that pre-season supplemental period. Needless to say, he didn't show enough to get a spot. I might be wrong, but I think we had some inside info that with his injuries, he just wasn't athletic and agile enough to play KPP at the next level.
He looked fairy agile last weekend, might just need a good run without injury.
 

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He looked fairy agile last weekend, might just need a good run without injury.
Yeah, fair enough. As I said, I'm not 100% sure if I remember that correctly, but I think that was the gist of why he didn't get a spot. But good luck to him. Apparently, he's a great teammate and really talented, just been unlucky with injuries.
 
29 next year, no thanks

Fair enough.

Is there a cutoff age for you? I find when state leaguers almost get to that 24/25+ stage, there just isn't that interest from clubs as they're all about their age demographics and keeping their list young and having that buildup of numbers of youth.

I can't say for me at least there is that age cut off. A guy can be 30, and if they're playing to a decisive best-22 AFL standard, I'd take them if they can fill a positional need, just as I would a 38 year old Brent Harvey when he was still balling. I find myself a lot more curious about whether they're on current standard of play when they get to those more advanced ages.

Sam Skinner trained during the preseason with us with the view to possibly picking up in that pre-season supplemental period. Needless to say, he didn't show enough to get a spot. I might be wrong, but I think we had some inside info that with his injuries, he just wasn't athletic and agile enough to play KPP at the next level.

Is athleticism/agility/speed essential for a key defender? I look at Brian Lake and Jeremy McGovern as guys past and present where it hasn't mattered.

I haven't found Skinner's movement concerning, but I can't speak for others. Skinner is an intercepting beast and turning a good number of those 1v1s into intercept marks. Doing those things on the level he has the last two weeks in particular, if he continues what he's doing, I can't say I'm concerned.
 
Fair enough.

Is there a cutoff age for you? I find when state leaguers almost get to that 24/25+ stage, there just isn't that interest from clubs as they're all about their age demographics and keeping their list young and having that buildup of numbers of youth.

I can't say for me at least there is that age cut off. A guy can be 30, and if they're playing to a decisive best-22 AFL standard, I'd take them if they can fill a positional need, just as I would a 38 year old Brent Harvey when he was still balling. I find myself a lot more curious about whether they're on current standard of play when they get to those more advanced ages.



Is athleticism/agility/speed essential for a key defender? I look at Brian Lake and Jeremy McGovern as guys past and present where it hasn't mattered.

I haven't found Skinner's movement concerning, but I can't speak for others. Skinner is an intercepting beast and turning a good number of those 1v1s into intercept marks. Doing those things on the level he has the last two weeks in particular, if he continues what he's doing, I can't say I'm concerned.
Dunno, that's just what I remember being said. I'm also pretty sure he did the entire preseason with a view to picking him up as a key forward, so maybe that played a role. As I said, I don't remember the specifics, but it's not as if he wasn't looked at prior to this season as a possible listed player.
 
Is there a cutoff age for you?
I don’t tend to pay too much attention to the developed players when discussing draft prospects as they make up a short percentage of a draft pool and it can make it difficult to rank them against the kids. If I’m looking for a state league player I would hope they are the type that has some growth to come from an AFL system and those types are usually under 25 discounting some rucks who take a bit longer.
 
A liability as an inside mid? Yikes! Put Smith in Collingwood's midfield and after possibly Adams, he's that clear #2. No doubt he'll be asked to put more time and focus in defensively, and that's something that can and should develop with more experience. The forward of centre stuff is what I can't say I'm relying on Smith to develop. He'll be a gun mid, one of the best in the comp could be a possibility, though I haven't seen those signs or weapons to suggest he develops that forward craft, so I'm not sure that vision will come to fruition.

The more you watch Horne, and really watch his application defensively without the ball, the more it will stick out like a sore thumb. It's what he does every week and is what makes his game so impressive. It's just a bonus at stoppages that he can win it off the bounce at speed at stoppages as well as he does.



Scouts will be watching closely every week given Horne/Roberts/Draper are there. Along with Schlensog, Skinner just seems like a plug and play. I'm not sure he even needs to be depth, I can name a number of teams with Skinner where he like Schlensog could walk straight into the best-22 if he continues with his current standard of play.

Do you have an opinion on Joseph Haines? I haven't minded him either for South Adelaide. Certainly can generate drive and has that long kick, although with those long shots on the weekend really needed to lower his eyes and look i50 for a target.



Hasn't done a lot this season so value won't be high. I'd value him as being worth an early second round pick. He's in that same position as a McAsey where it's not clear if he's a long term player, but still being a recent high pick will still hold some value and probably have his fans.

Different people value different things. I value the impact of players on winning games and not on just stats.
In my view, the current focus on positive stats for midfielders, is missing the defensive aspect of their play.
Every team wants a Bailey Smith BUT unless you have a dominant ruckman, then he is a liability.
English is NOT a ruckman, so therefore he can’t be a dominant one. We desperately need a ruckman and to play English forward where he is a difficult matchup.
IF Martin is back this week, then Smith has value. IF not, then he will be a liability in the midfield and will need to play more outside. Smith could develop this defensive aspect and I hope he does. He could be an elite player BUT he requires a dominant ruckman at the moment. Something the bulldogs haven’t had since Hudson retired.

I do like Horne and think he will be a hugely valuable player even in his first year of AFL. He won’t need high possession numbers to be having a big impact. It’s a shame he is going to be at North, I would consider giving up a decent player to get him.
 
I don’t tend to pay too much attention to the developed players when discussing draft prospects as they make up a short percentage of a draft pool and it can make it difficult to rank them against the kids. If I’m looking for a state league player I would hope they are the type that has some growth to come from an AFL system and those types are usually under 25 discounting some rucks who take a bit longer.
A mature age SANFL player that always catches my eye is Sturt's Daniel Fahey-Sparks, plays largely in ruck but with his leap and athleticism I could see him playing KPP/chop out ruck at the next level. Keegan Brooksby keeps getting on a rookie list surprisingly IMO this bloke offers way more?
 
I don’t tend to pay too much attention to the developed players when discussing draft prospects as they make up a short percentage of a draft pool and it can make it difficult to rank them against the kids. If I’m looking for a state league player I would hope they are the type that has some growth to come from an AFL system and those types are usually under 25 discounting some rucks who take a bit longer.

That seems roughly the consensus in clubland from what I can tell also.

Different people value different things. I value the impact of players on winning games and not on just stats.
In my view, the current focus on positive stats for midfielders, is missing the defensive aspect of their play.
Every team wants a Bailey Smith BUT unless you have a dominant ruckman, then he is a liability.
English is NOT a ruckman, so therefore he can’t be a dominant one. We desperately need a ruckman and to play English forward where he is a difficult matchup.
IF Martin is back this week, then Smith has value. IF not, then he will be a liability in the midfield and will need to play more outside. Smith could develop this defensive aspect and I hope he does. He could be an elite player BUT he requires a dominant ruckman at the moment. Something the bulldogs haven’t had since Hudson retired.

I do like Horne and think he will be a hugely valuable player even in his first year of AFL. He won’t need high possession numbers to be having a big impact. It’s a shame he is going to be at North, I would consider giving up a decent player to get him.

I agree with you completely about English not being a ruckman and with the notion that Smith goes better when you have a good ruckman in there.

I do see room for mids who aren't as great defensively, but I do love those who are influential defensively. Just as you'll be hard-pressed to find someone who is a bigger fan of Hugh Greenwood and Willem Drew than I am.

My non negotiable with inside mids is they have the contested components on a high level, but as long as they're in some way or another difference makers, whether they're more offensively or defensively focused, that's what I care about. And on the whole, those offensively focused mids do get vastly overrated and those more defensively focused vastly underrated. Dusty as an example should not be spoken about as a generational talent or as someone in the Leigh Matthews category of greatness. He's a great impact player both midfield and forward, a great finals performer, and being able to impact games in the two positions does make him a lot more valuable than guys who can just impact games through the midfield, but without those defensive components, it does take away from the completeness of his game and for me puts him a clear category down from that greatest ever conversation.

Guys like Jack Steele, Hugh Greenwood, Willem Drew, Dayne Zorko, and I could go on, are vastly underrated. If I'm making an All-Australian team, Steele and Zorko are in it, Greenwood would be part of my All-Australian second team and Drew would be someone I'd be considering closely for that second team. Jack Graham is another as I'm writing I'm thinking about and he would be in that All-Australian second team mix also, just due to how great his pressure is.

I do agree that Horne should be valuable from season one. And he won't need to find much of the footy, he could play through the midfield and just be an 11-15d per game mid, but if he's heaping on the pressure as he is in the SANFL, he's an asset from the get go.
 
That seems roughly the consensus in clubland from what I can tell also.



I agree with you completely about English not being a ruckman and with the notion that Smith goes better when you have a good ruckman in there.

I do see room for mids who aren't as great defensively, but I do love those who are influential defensively. Just as you'll be hard-pressed to find someone who is a bigger fan of Hugh Greenwood and Willem Drew than I am.

My non negotiable with inside mids is they have the contested components on a high level, but as long as they're in some way or another difference makers, whether they're more offensively or defensively focused, that's what I care about. And on the whole, those offensively focused mids do get vastly overrated and those more defensively focused vastly underrated. Dusty as an example should not be spoken about as a generational talent or as someone in the Leigh Matthews category of greatness. He's a great impact player both midfield and forward, a great finals performer, and being able to impact games in the two positions does make him a lot more valuable than guys who can just impact games through the midfield, but without those defensive components, it does take away from the completeness of his game and for me puts him a clear category down from that greatest ever conversation.

Guys like Jack Steele, Hugh Greenwood, Willem Drew, Dayne Zorko, and I could go on, are vastly underrated. If I'm making an All-Australian team, Steele and Zorko are in it, Greenwood would be part of my All-Australian second team and Drew would be someone I'd be considering closely for that second team. Jack Graham is another as I'm writing I'm thinking about and he would be in that All-Australian second team mix also, just due to how great his pressure is.

I do agree that Horne should be valuable from season one. And he won't need to find much of the footy, he could play through the midfield and just be an 11-15d per game mid, but if he's heaping on the pressure as he is in the SANFL, he's an asset from the get go.

Graham is hugely underrated unless you watch game film and look away from the ball. Then he becomes an AA squad level player. Dusty can’t have the same impact without Graham and others doing the clean up behind him. Steele and Zorko should be starting in the AA team but they may not make the squad of 40. Steele should but Zorko may not.
 
I was pretty impressed with Skinner aswell, deserves another shot for a club screaming for readymade key defensive depth.

Skinner & Schenslog would both have played for the Bulldogs this season. Two weeks ago versus the Bombers, the dogs didn’t even play with a true KPD* and either could have stopped Peter Wright from having the best game of his career.

*Cordy and Schache are third talls and maybe Schache can make a career in that role, Cordy not so much.
 
I wonder if Richmond will have a look now that Astbury has retired?

Schlensog and Skinner respectively would be great gets. Richmond are one of a few clubs who could use either of them.

Graham is hugely underrated unless you watch game film and look away from the ball. Then he becomes an AA squad level player. Dusty can’t have the same impact without Graham and others doing the clean up behind him. Steele and Zorko should be starting in the AA team but they may not make the squad of 40. Steele should but Zorko may not.

Completely agree with you on Graham. He's a vital piece for Richmond structurally and one of their most valuable because of what he does defensively.

Steele and Zorko not in the squad of 40? Yikes. Selectors would get roasted missing on those two, but it would show the point of defensively oriented mids being undervalued. Steele is my Brownlow pick. Zorko with his two way impact similarly is one of the more valuable contributors also.

Skinner & Schenslog would both have played for the Bulldogs this season. Two weeks ago versus the Bombers, the dogs didn’t even play with a true KPD* and either could have stopped Peter Wright from having the best game of his career.

*Cordy and Schache are third talls and maybe Schache can make a career in that role, Cordy not so much.

Glad to see optimism around Cordy is dropping also. I haven't at any point rated him. And agree with you, either on the Dogs would be in there and paired with Keath, as clear-cut upgrades and solidifying the defence with a better tall combination.
 
Different people value different things. I value the impact of players on winning games and not on just stats.
In my view, the current focus on positive stats for midfielders, is missing the defensive aspect of their play.
Every team wants a Bailey Smith BUT unless you have a dominant ruckman, then he is a liability.
English is NOT a ruckman, so therefore he can’t be a dominant one. We desperately need a ruckman and to play English forward where he is a difficult matchup.
IF Martin is back this week, then Smith has value. IF not, then he will be a liability in the midfield and will need to play more outside. Smith could develop this defensive aspect and I hope he does. He could be an elite player BUT he requires a dominant ruckman at the moment. Something the bulldogs haven’t had since Hudson retired.

I do like Horne and think he will be a hugely valuable player even in his first year of AFL. He won’t need high possession numbers to be having a big impact. It’s a shame he is going to be at North, I would consider giving up a decent player to get him.
Why is it a shame he is going to North.
 
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