Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

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briztoon said:
If I’m the Lions, I’d want a second pick back as well. Preferably in the top 30.
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Interesting perspective. My immediate thought at that hypothetical was that 14 + 18 was unders for 4. Let alone asking for a second round pick as well. In the end, the market will decide what's value!
 
Ok so we got there in the end.

Yada yada yada on face value he should be a 3x Premiership Captain, Brownlow medallist winning champion of his club.

Some of your best analysis there old mate.

I’d say it will be two, we historically tend to throw away a 3rd or 4th along the way if we are ever any good.

Btw, how do you rate Amiss? Or Wilmott? Any chance either of them slip to 20, I’d love one of these two alongside Jason at 1.
 

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foodles05 said:
Thanks Knightmare I really appreciate you wrap. Can I extrapolate from the things you have said that you wouldnt expect Horne to average 30-35+ if he was playing in the u/18s?
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I found the AFL Academy v Geelong VFL game to be particularly instructive and it spoke so distinctly to the difference in their games but also what can be expected in terms of output.

Daicos goes for 26d, 11cp, 4m, 6cl, 5 i50s, 2 score assists, 2b. But just the one tackle.
Horne goes for 11d, 8cp, 2m, 8t, 4cl, 1 i50.

And I refer to his game as it's the game they've both played together to get a feel for those differences more directly against the same level of competition. As we can see distinctly from those stats and as was obvious during the game, Daicos was the go-to guy around the ground and the guy who was hitting the scoreboard, bringing those outside components, yet still going to work on the inside to a high level.

What the difference on the other side with Horne was, he was competitive enough at stoppages and had a crack, but he wasn't in game as the stats illustrate finding the ball on the outside or finding any easy ball. He had to work hard and win it at stoppages. And he was playing heavy midfield minutes as with Daicos that primary mid, and he still struggled to find the footy. Where Horne again as the stats illustrate though Horne really applies himself defensively with the 8t and Daicos didn't with just the one.

And it's obviously with the way they both play. Daicos doesn't work as hard defensively around the ground. To his credit more recently he has really become a good tackler at stoppages and anticipating to a level I haven't ever seen before where the ball is going and get to them for the tackle the moment they get the ball. But around the ground it's Horne who is applying the pressure, giving those second and third efforts, smothering and doing all those things. And you'll have Daicos on the other hand the one working hard around the ground to keep presenting up at the footy, running in support, linking up and being that really active target around the ground.

If I'm to translate my estimation of Horne's disposal numbers to the NAB League, I see him as a roughly 28d player based on this year's play as a full time mid and wouldn't expect him to hit the scoreboard at the volume of Daicos. That's not to say he wouldn't be influential at that level or nearing Daicos in terms of how well he's playing, but he'd be impacting games in a contrasting way as a higher volume tackler and doing a lot more defensively to impact winning.

LittleG said:
I agree with you about stat and impact very being different things.
Sometimes I watch AFL behind the goal footage. This shows how there are some very lazy ‘elite’ midfielders. I use the term ‘elite’ as I watch them jog or walk back to help out their defence OR sometimes move forward to cover another players man, so that they don’t have to chase their man. These players are one way only and I find their value minimal in terms of goal assists/score involvements, as they cause to be let in more than they create.
It’s hard to quantify how you assess their non-involvement in defence. There is no stat that says ‘failed to chase’ OR ‘caused goal by lack of effort’.
Some players do make up for their laziness by kicking goals in bursts (Stringer) OR are so creative with their movement/disposals that their lack defence doesn’t matter (Dusty). But I find many of these ‘elite’ players at the top of the rankings to be just stat padders.
Sorry about the long post, it’s just nice to read post from people who get that stats don’t always mean a lot.
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This component is why I refuse to compare Horne to the likes of Dusty or Danger. He's not having that kind of offensive impact anyway.

It doesn't pay proper respect to what he does defensively.

Horne works defensively. That's why his game is so extremely contrasting. He does that better than any high draft pick I've watched in their draft year.

On that side of the ball he deserves to be spoken about in the context of a H.Greenwood, Drew, D.Smith, Graham, Zorko, Sloane, Steele and Keays in terms of application to playing that side of the ball and how hard he works. Pressure acts is one way to quantify it, though you do have to allow for if guys don't play as full time midfielders, you do have to expect those numbers to be lower than those who are around the ball the entire game.

Really anything can be quantified in theory, it's just about creating the stat and then knowing how to interpret it and put it in context. And then it's about knowing how to value the stat and to what extent it matters to whatever it is you're trying to assess. There is always more than just one stat or just one category that matters, but for different players, or different positions, or different teams, there will be differences in what is valued and the extent to which it's value, in their own personal context.

It's a given though the best player isn't just determined by a shallow stat like who has the most disposals.

Usayed Givashe said:
Ok so we got there in the end.

Yada yada yada on face value he should be a 3x Premiership Captain, Brownlow medallist winning champion of his club.

Some of your best analysis there old mate.

I’d say it will be two, we historically tend to throw away a 3rd or 4th along the way if we are ever any good.

Btw, how do you rate Amiss? Or Wilmott? Any chance either of them slip to 20, I’d love one of these two alongside Jason at 1.
Click to expand...

Wilmott generates meaningful drive. Like him. He's not part of my top-20 power rankings, and is either a late first or second rounder I'd imagine.

Amiss is another who could go late first or second round. His stocks have risen a lot over the past couple of months and is rising up my draft board, but like Wilmott isn't part of my top-20 at this stage.
 
Knightmare said:
If I'm to translate my estimation of Horne's disposal numbers to the NAB League, I see him as a roughly 28d player based on this year's play as a full time mid and wouldn't expect him to hit the scoreboard at the volume of Daicos.
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He was doing that last year in the SANFL U18s. Is the NAB League standard that much higher?
 
GUMBLETRON said:
He was doing that last year in the SANFL U18s. Is the NAB League standard that much higher?
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The standard of NAB League play is definitely higher.

30d in the SA U18s could be roughly 23-25d in NAB League.
 
Roberts, Horne-Francis and Draper having a tough day so far. The North bigger bodies are working them off the ball and a bit too physical. Roberts has still done a couple of nice things
 
hey knightmare. I love your work. As a dees fan, we don't have our first pick until the 30's but most mocks only do the top 20 or something. Any idea of a few names that could fall to us and that we'd be into?
 
danster168 said:
hey knightmare. I love your work. As a dees fan, we don't have our first pick until the 30's but most mocks only do the top 20 or something. Any idea of a few names that could fall to us and that we'd be into?
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Most of the draft watchers here have top 40 or top 50 lists and mock drafts in their threads. You just gave scan back through the last 3 to 5 pages if their threads to see them.
 
Great8 said:
Roberts, Horne-Francis and Draper having a tough day so far. The North bigger bodies are working them off the ball and a bit too physical. Roberts has still done a couple of nice things
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Roberts isn't as far behind Horne as people make out. He's a legit really good mid. We saw it in his SANFL League debut. He has a very advanced game and it's really surprising to me at least he's not being spoken about as a top-5 mid in this draft by all that many people. He's easily in that group for me.

HumanMeatball said:
Are there many midfielders in the 7-10 range?
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Inside the top-10, probably 8 midfielders. The draft is lean on good talls.

danster168 said:
hey knightmare. I love your work. As a dees fan, we don't have our first pick until the 30's but most mocks only do the top 20 or something. Any idea of a few names that could fall to us and that we'd be into?
Click to expand...

I'll produce a phantom draft post-season, but for that first Melbourne pick, Darcy Wilmott would be a nice fit with the driver he can generate if you're after a name Melbourne should be looking at.
 

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Knightmare said:
Roberts isn't as far behind Horne as people make out. He's a legit really good mid. We saw it in his SANFL League debut. He has a very advanced game and it's really surprising to me at least he's not being spoken about as a top-5 mid in this draft by all that many people. He's easily in that group for me.



Inside the top-10, probably 8 midfielders. The draft is lean on good talls.



I'll produce a phantom draft post-season, but for that first Melbourne pick, Darcy Wilmott would be a nice fit with the driver he can generate if you're after a name Melbourne should be looking at.
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Oh, I totally agree on Roberts. He would be great for the Crows and available at their pick most likely. I rate him very highly from what I’ve seen of him live
 
I've heard your scepticism about Callaghan potentially ending up a Polec KM. I was wondering where you see his potential? Do you consider his potential more I suppose game breaking than a Daicos/Hobbs/Ward type - I see potential for very good AFL midfielders in all of them but even for someone like Walsh, I don't see his potential being as damaging as a Dusty/Bont bigger body who can push forward and destroy teams that way. More a death by a thousand cuts type, even if it can also be lethal as we've seen with Walsh.

I'm hopeful with Carltons disastrous end to the season we may look at potentially trading up from a pick 5-6 up to 2-3 to go after Callaghan as it's not as much of a reach as previously expected. To me I think he'd be a great part for our future midfield
All being smaller types who that lack penetrative kicks In Dow Walsh Carroll and perhaps Stocker. Cripps at his best provided a forward target but still lacked any real game breaking ability by foot.

Also interested to hear how u classify Schlensog in terms of the type of player he is. Is he more a Liam Jones/Noah Balta type who id consider somewhat 'dumb' but makes up for it with athleticism and raw talent. Or a Jacob Weitering, Sam Taylor type who id say are smarter and can set up a defence as well as play their part generally giving instruction and making good decisions more often than not.
 
Maybe I am blind.
But how come it seems like the SA top prospects all play SANFL yet the VIC guys just play school footy and not VFL? Is Daicos and Darcy playing VFL and I am just blind?
 
TryAnHit said:
Maybe I am blind.
But how come it seems like the SA top prospects all play SANFL yet the VIC guys just play school footy and not VFL? Is Daicos and Darcy playing VFL and I am just blind?
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Daicos played VFL early in the season. So did Sinn. Then Covid started impacting Victorian sports. This current outbreak is Vics second or third interruption to their season.

The Vic boys play school footy as it’s part of their scholarship requirements.

I remember back in the 80’s when I went from public to private school, we had to put school sports ahead club sports. Only State or National reps overrode our commitment to play for your school.
 
Knightmare said:
I found the AFL Academy v Geelong VFL game to be particularly instructive and it spoke so distinctly to the difference in their games but also what can be expected in terms of output.

Daicos goes for 26d, 11cp, 4m, 6cl, 5 i50s, 2 score assists, 2b. But just the one tackle.
Horne goes for 11d, 8cp, 2m, 8t, 4cl, 1 i50.

And I refer to his game as it's the game they've both played together to get a feel for those differences more directly against the same level of competition. As we can see distinctly from those stats and as was obvious during the game, Daicos was the go-to guy around the ground and the guy who was hitting the scoreboard, bringing those outside components, yet still going to work on the inside to a high level.

What the difference on the other side with Horne was, he was competitive enough at stoppages and had a crack, but he wasn't in game as the stats illustrate finding the ball on the outside or finding any easy ball. He had to work hard and win it at stoppages. And he was playing heavy midfield minutes as with Daicos that primary mid, and he still struggled to find the footy. Where Horne again as the stats illustrate though Horne really applies himself defensively with the 8t and Daicos didn't with just the one.

And it's obviously with the way they both play. Daicos doesn't work as hard defensively around the ground. To his credit more recently he has really become a good tackler at stoppages and anticipating to a level I haven't ever seen before where the ball is going and get to them for the tackle the moment they get the ball. But around the ground it's Horne who is applying the pressure, giving those second and third efforts, smothering and doing all those things. And you'll have Daicos on the other hand the one working hard around the ground to keep presenting up at the footy, running in support, linking up and being that really active target around the ground.

If I'm to translate my estimation of Horne's disposal numbers to the NAB League, I see him as a roughly 28d player based on this year's play as a full time mid and wouldn't expect him to hit the scoreboard at the volume of Daicos. That's not to say he wouldn't be influential at that level or nearing Daicos in terms of how well he's playing, but he'd be impacting games in a contrasting way as a higher volume tackler and doing a lot more defensively to impact winning.



This component is why I refuse to compare Horne to the likes of Dusty or Danger. He's not having that kind of offensive impact anyway.

It doesn't pay proper respect to what he does defensively.

Horne works defensively. That's why his game is so extremely contrasting. He does that better than any high draft pick I've watched in their draft year.

On that side of the ball he deserves to be spoken about in the context of a H.Greenwood, Drew, D.Smith, Graham, Zorko, Sloane, Steele and Keays in terms of application to playing that side of the ball and how hard he works. Pressure acts is one way to quantify it, though you do have to allow for if guys don't play as full time midfielders, you do have to expect those numbers to be lower than those who are around the ball the entire game.

Really anything can be quantified in theory, it's just about creating the stat and then knowing how to interpret it and put it in context. And then it's about knowing how to value the stat and to what extent it matters to whatever it is you're trying to assess. There is always more than just one stat or just one category that matters, but for different players, or different positions, or different teams, there will be differences in what is valued and the extent to which it's value, in their own personal context.

It's a given though the best player isn't just determined by a shallow stat like who has the most disposals.



Wilmott generates meaningful drive. Like him. He's not part of my top-20 power rankings, and is either a late first or second rounder I'd imagine.

Amiss is another who could go late first or second round. His stocks have risen a lot over the past couple of months and is rising up my draft board, but like Wilmott isn't part of my top-20 at this stage.
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Interesting thanks for that. Although I think as a notion (not saying it is what you are doing here cause I may have read it incorrectly) it is absurd to place much weight at all on one game no matter why anyone convinces themselves they should (like is it the only time two players have played in the same "comp"). In talent assessment and projection it is just bad policy IMHO.
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
I've heard your scepticism about Callaghan potentially ending up a Polec KM. I was wondering where you see his potential? Do you consider his potential more I suppose game breaking than a Daicos/Hobbs/Ward type - I see potential for very good AFL midfielders in all of them but even for someone like Walsh, I don't see his potential being as damaging as a Dusty/Bont bigger body who can push forward and destroy teams that way. More a death by a thousand cuts type, even if it can also be lethal as we've seen with Walsh.

I'm hopeful with Carltons disastrous end to the season we may look at potentially trading up from a pick 5-6 up to 2-3 to go after Callaghan as it's not as much of a reach as previously expected. To me I think he'd be a great part for our future midfield
All being smaller types who that lack penetrative kicks In Dow Walsh Carroll and perhaps Stocker. Cripps at his best provided a forward target but still lacked any real game breaking ability by foot.

Also interested to hear how u classify Schlensog in terms of the type of player he is. Is he more a Liam Jones/Noah Balta type who id consider somewhat 'dumb' but makes up for it with athleticism and raw talent. Or a Jacob Weitering, Sam Taylor type who id say are smarter and can set up a defence as well as play their part generally giving instruction and making good decisions more often than not.
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Callaghan's ceiling is as high as any in this pool, as something like a slightly shorter and without quite the same overhead and forward of centre capabilities as Bontempelli. Like Bont at the same age and stage, Callaghan needs to develop the contested side of his game, and he may, but he needs to ramp up his aggression, as at this point in time I'm not seeing him becoming that kind of ball winner until he proves he can be.

Hobbs isn't a game breaker, that's like saying Matt Crouch is a game breaker. You won't hear anyone ever saying that. Ward isn't to the same degree either, nor Daicos, though in traffic I will say of Daicos he's just as good. Callaghan if everything clicks of the mids does have the highest ceiling.

You'll need pick 2 for Callaghan. Of the live picks, after Horne, Callaghan looks like he'll be the next chosen. Would be interesting to see if whoever ends up with that pick (possibly GWS) would be willing to accept Carlton's first and future first as an example trade. He'd certainly provide a point of contrast in Carlton's midfield if they can move up to him.

Schlensog I place in the smart category. He has been playing forward since the middle of the year, but when set up behind the ball where he's a genius is with how he seemingly watches the eyes of the opposition player kicking to see where they're going to kick so that even before they're kicking the footy he knows where they're going to set up numerous intercept marks. And I'd also credit him as a ball user for being precise, showing great vision and making sound decisions. Even up forward what has been fascinating is how he and Mason Shaw as two really good key forwards can work so well together and no get in the way of one another, one leading higher up the field and the other closer to goal and when one works up the ground the other is working hard to get closer to goal. There is a lot of nuance to his game and while he moves really well, he's also a really smart footballer who does things you wouldn't expect from a guy who is basically 2m tall.

TryAnHit said:
Maybe I am blind.
But how come it seems like the SA top prospects all play SANFL yet the VIC guys just play school footy and not VFL? Is Daicos and Darcy playing VFL and I am just blind?
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Only three VFL games for the U18s is permitted in a season.

We've had VFL shutdowns as we have with AFL shutdowns so that hasn't helped.

foodles05 said:
Interesting thanks for that. Although I think as a notion (not saying it is what you are doing here cause I may have read it incorrectly) it is absurd to place much weight at all on one game no matter why anyone convinces themselves they should (like is it the only time two players have played in the same "comp"). In talent assessment and projection it is just bad policy IMHO.
Click to expand...

It is indeed only one game, but it is nonetheless instructive and consistent with the way they play in their respective competitions. Daicos finds a lot more of the footy and Horne does a lot more defensively.
 
Hey KM,

As you must already know our exposure to the draft will be very limited post Nick Daicos and maybe Dibs. Perhaps we can re-enter the draft with late picks which seems likely given we will need to fill list spots, as we try to accumulate enough points (which requires list spots) to match a bid for Daicos.

We clearly need key position strength, but the success rate of KPPs is close to 0 past the 50/60 mark. Only exceptions that comes to mind are Ben Brown and Taylor Walker. With that in mind, in our situation, would you go for more small forward/small defender players with higher success rate and low upside, or speculate on an almost certain KPP bust but perhaps with more upside?
 
Prochard123 said:
Hey KM,

As you must already know our exposure to the draft will be very limited post Nick Daicos and maybe Dibs. Perhaps we can re-enter the draft with late picks which seems likely given we will need to fill list spots, as we try to accumulate enough points (which requires list spots) to match a bid for Daicos.

We clearly need key position strength, but the success rate of KPPs is close to 0 past the 50/60 mark. Only exceptions that comes to mind are Ben Brown and Taylor Walker. With that in mind, in our situation, would you go for more small forward/small defender players with higher success rate and low upside, or speculate on an almost certain KPP bust but perhaps with more upside?
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Taylor Walker was actually a NSW/ACT Scholarship player. Ben Brown as a mature ager was taken inside the top-50 also. But there are the odd instances where key forwards can be found late/rookie. Fremantle just last year secured Josh Treacy as a rookie and signs there are promising, and Taberner is a seriously good key forward and he himself was also rookie drafted.

I'd suggest Collingwood seek out Blake Schlensog and Jake Riccardi as the key position answers this offseason, with any additional picks beyond Daicos/Dib be it national or rookie draft to be for the selection of best availables. And this not being the best draft for talls, more likely than not would be something else.

If Gold Coast don't want Bodhi Uwland, he'd be the first player I'd go after as in my view one of this draft's better players - where you use him. Otherwise I like my overagers and mature agers this year later on. For general defenders, Jack Avery and Angus Baker would be great value gets and high conviction picks as a couple of plug and play options. Tyrone Thorne I still like if looking for a mid/fwd as a contrasting piece with his speed/athleticism/pressure/skills/accumulation for a small who does his best work at ground level. For draft age mids, I'd look out for any sliders.

Late/rookie Leek Alleer I'd also give consideration to as a key defender who last week in particular had a big time breakout game and looks very developable. Sam Skinner has looked good since moving back, so as a former AFL listed player is another to consider. If I had to take a key forward, Jack Williams would be a nice one to have slide, but if not, more realistically, and I'd rather not have to take him, but a Joshua Rentsch might be about the best you could do in that range, and he'd be suited as a relieving ruck who mostly plays forward as a really strong body who plays a physical brand of footy - he'd be a success if he can be made into something like what Leigh Brown was at Collingwood + a few cm. I'm higher conviction on Schlensog and Riccardi though, so I'd prefer to go that route. The other KPP note is there will be plenty available early draft next year, so Collingwood don't need this year to find that long term key forward answer, so the urgency need not be viewed as high.
 
GeTrain said:
Got a bit of a random question, coming into the draft was Thilthorpe seen as a ruck or key forward?
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He played a lot of ruck last year, but definitely as a junior he showed definite key forward talent, so he's someone I've always liked and continue to like much more as a key forward.
 
Prochard123 said:
Hey KM,

As you must already know our exposure to the draft will be very limited post Nick Daicos and maybe Dibs. Perhaps we can re-enter the draft with late picks which seems likely given we will need to fill list spots, as we try to accumulate enough points (which requires list spots) to match a bid for Daicos.

We clearly need key position strength, but the success rate of KPPs is close to 0 past the 50/60 mark. Only exceptions that comes to mind are Ben Brown and Taylor Walker. With that in mind, in our situation, would you go for more small forward/small defender players with higher success rate and low upside, or speculate on an almost certain KPP bust but perhaps with more upside?
Click to expand...
where was Mihocek taken? I thought he was rookie draft, or is he not counted as a success?
 
Knightmare, you rate Erasmum highly. It looks likely one of the WA clubs will have a pick around 8. Do you see one of the non-WA clubs being a strong chance of taking Erasmus before this?
 
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