Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

We've already got Tarryn Thomas for that.

It's almost a question of the day topic. Is Thomas or Horne-Francis likely to have the better career, or put another way, if you could only have one, who is that choice for the long term?

Thomas being the established footballer and doing what he did during the second half of the season is the one I would narrowly choose if I could add one or the other to my list. I see a few more ways he impacts games and a level of hurt factor and scoreboard impact I'm not convinced Horne-Francis will manage.

Until the second half of this year I wouldn't have been as glowing in my review of Thomas, but his game to his credit has improved dramatically these past 6 months.

I wonder if north pick Callaghan over Horne? Is Horne really better

Horne-Francis is as we speak is the better footballer.

Callaghan until he proves otherwise remains allergic to winning his own ball or tackling, lacking any degree of aggression v Horne who really is about as contrasting as they come in those competitiveness categories.

Callaghan in my view has the higher ceiling, so he does have a case given how rare his movement is for someone his height and his projected rate of improvement based on being a later grower. But his floor is a good way lower, on a level where it's not assured he makes the grade.

With NAB League now officially done and no Championships now confirmed for Victorians, do you know if the combine goes ahead?

Not sure how for Victorian or NSW prospects a combine will be able to take place. There does not appear to be any end to lockdown coming between now and the draft to be realistic.

Clubs will be looking for previous data and likely going off of that for prospects from any states unable to participate.

Agree. Our evaluation of Horne's prospects is very similar, I just question the 'feel' of some of your rationale for arriving there. General sentiment towards high draft picks is that they're bankers, and for every Sam Walsh there's a Jon O'Rourke.

This is in particular the comment I think is especially, and perhaps needlessly, alarmist.

We're dealing with 17-18 year old kids here. They're not born adaptable. They grow into versatility and adaptability. Routine, structure, repeatability - they're the things these kids crave.

When you're throwing kids around all the time, they're not going to perform as well. I agree - his production in the academy game and the WA game wasn't as strong as one would hope. But when you take a kid who's entire mindset is rooted around a defined role - half forward: relentless pressure, set up here at stoppages, lead to this spot, occupy this space - etc. and then plonk him into the midfield the next week and say 'you're the man, be everywhere' - it's a big transition. And switching roles is a gradual process - especially for kids. Not everyone can just do a Darcy Parish.

I think the last para is correct - and I've reached a similar conclusion. But I'm not sure it's tarnishing these kids, just means that they're coming into the AFL system from a different role whereas the Poulter and Powell types have been working that role for the previous year. So the adjustment period is longer if they're switching roles.

I often see you talk about player X should play in defence and you model and project how their style will convert once shifted to a new position. I just think we look at Horne through that view - we're looking at a half forward and modelling how he'd go with some time to work on his midfield stuff.

With picks you can't even know for sure, you can have suspicions, and sometimes they're right, as I was with O'Rourke and McCartin rating them a lot lower than they went, but there will when making bets like that also be times you're wrong, with others such as Walsh in my case developing beyond my expectation.

With Horne-Francis I'm of the view that he'll be best used, as with a Ben Keays as a midfielder.

I don't mean to cause alarm in my comments with Horne-Francis. I'm just stating how he has performed when not playing for South Adelaide. As per in my weekly wrap, my comments were that his performance v WA needs to be taken in context of the season and no recruiter who has been watching him all year will be dropping him down their draft boards to any meaningful level if at all.

One caution I will provide with draft prospects is there is always an assumption that they'll improve, and improve on their weaknesses, but I'd suggest not putting to much weight into that assumption as unless there is some kind of exponential rate of development, ordinarily their games don't change all that dramatically with mostly their areas of proficiency, a few defensive components and aerobic stuff generally what improves in the AFL system to varying degrees.

Keays was never played in the middle at the Lions. He played two roles, fat side wing or pressure forward. Neither role really his forte.

I'm not disagreeing.

What I'm saying with Keays instead is he has improved dramatically since his time at Brisbane, and even since his first season with Adelaide.

Callaghan certainly fits better on needs - classy user off half back.

Albeit I don't know what we would project Horne turning into - I suspect a kind of Voss/Ricciouto type beast midfielder who can also go foward.

Callaghan isn't someone I'd use off half-back. He could play there and be reasonable, but the only spot I see upside with him is if he develops his aggression and develops his contested ball winning capabilities and tackling, then he could become a difference maker through the midfield. Put him outside or on a half-back flank and he becomes probably something more like a slightly worse version of Scrimshaw.

 

[Wild Bill]

It's almost a question of the day topic. Is Thomas or Horne-Francis likely to have the better career, or put another way, if you could only have one, who is that choice for the long term?

Thomas being the established footballer and doing what he did during the second half of the season is the one I would narrowly choose if I could add one or the other to my list. I see a few more ways he impacts games and a level of hurt factor and scoreboard impact I'm not convinced Horne-Francis will manage.

Until the second half of this year I wouldn't have been as glowing in my review of Thomas, but his game to his credit has improved dramatically these past 6 months.



Horne-Francis is as we speak is the better footballer.

Callaghan until he proves otherwise remains allergic to winning his own ball or tackling, lacking any degree of aggression v Horne who really is about as contrasting as they come in those competitiveness categories.

Callaghan in my view has the higher ceiling, so he does have a case given how rare his movement is for someone his height and his projected rate of improvement based on being a later grower. But his floor is a good way lower, on a level where it's not assured he makes the grade.



Not sure how for Victorian or NSW prospects a combine will be able to take place. There does not appear to be any end to lockdown coming between now and the draft to be realistic.

Clubs will be looking for previous data and likely going off of that for prospects from any states unable to participate.



With picks you can't even know for sure, you can have suspicions, and sometimes they're right, as I was with O'Rourke and McCartin rating them a lot lower than they went, but there will when making bets like that also be times you're wrong, with others such as Walsh in my case developing beyond my expectation.

With Horne-Francis I'm of the view that he'll be best used, as with a Ben Keays as a midfielder.

I don't mean to cause alarm in my comments with Horne-Francis. I'm just stating how he has performed when not playing for South Adelaide. As per in my weekly wrap, my comments were that his performance v WA needs to be taken in context of the season and no recruiter who has been watching him all year will be dropping him down their draft boards to any meaningful level if at all.

One caution I will provide with draft prospects is there is always an assumption that they'll improve, and improve on their weaknesses, but I'd suggest not putting to much weight into that assumption as unless there is some kind of exponential rate of development, ordinarily their games don't change all that dramatically with mostly their areas of proficiency, a few defensive components and aerobic stuff generally what improves in the AFL system to varying degrees.



I'm not disagreeing.

What I'm saying with Keays instead is he has improved dramatically since his time at Brisbane, and even since his first season with Adelaide.



Callaghan isn't someone I'd use off half-back. He could play there and be reasonable, but the only spot I see upside with him is if he develops his aggression and develops his contested ball winning capabilities and tackling, then he could become a difference maker through the midfield. Put him outside or on a half-back flank and he becomes probably something more like a slightly worse version of Scrimshaw.

So if you were North you would field offers for pick 1? Try and turn it into 2 1st rounders?

 

[Knightmare]

So if you were North you would field offers for pick 1? Try and turn it into 2 1st rounders?

I'd always be willing with any pick to have it on the table for the right price as a concept.

But personally no if it's two 2021 1sts. I'd prefer Horne-Francis.

Horne-Francis I look at as safe and he's someone I'd be comfortable taking.

One dynamic I feel we'll see in coming years is a lot of the names being touted as first round picks/who go first round - among those, there will be a lot of misses, and more than usual.

I'm sure my view differs to many others, but I really like the options mid/late and feel like with good talent ID there are opportunities there. There are guys I rate top-10 and top-15 who won't be early picks. So I wouldn't feel any particular desire to hold any early picks, as I'd be looking this year if I'm a selector to capitalise on that value. I'll bring up those high conviction names in my upcoming AFL Draft Power Rankings next week. So if I'm selecting for North Melbourne, I could pretty easily draft Horne-Francis and still get the players I'd be targeting, or maybe add a further second round pick just to make sure.

A trade I would do is something like Adelaide's 2021+2022 first round picks for pick 1, then the value would appeal. And I'd feel like I can move that Adelaide 2021 pick down for other appealing assets - players and picks. With a view towards through making those deal bringing in several players who can add to the best-22 over the long run, and not just two.

 

[HumanMeatball]

So if your Richmond for example are you still confident in nailing your top 10 pick? Are there many opportunities for misses on midfielders in that top 10 range

 

[chopflop]

LDU - burst away attacking midfielder

Philips - in and under warrior that creates space in tight for others

Powell - inside/outside creative midfielder

Simpkin: Gut running box to box midfielder

Stephenson - Skilful outside mid who can switch forward

Thomas - creative hard ball winning marking and goal kickng mid that will earn the tag

There's a spot there for Horne playing that kind of role as a two way running hard nosed mid imo.

Jeezus... Your midfield is looking scary good for the future.

 

[Del191229]

Jeezus... Your midfield is looking scary good for the future.

Yep - we've been building it from the draft the last five years.

 

[Knightmare]

So if your Richmond for example are you still confident in nailing your top 10 pick? Are there many opportunities for misses on midfielders in that top 10 range

Anything inside the top-10 picks I'd personally feel very comfortable moving out of given a lot of the names being spoken about in that range if the value is right.

If Brisbane were to offer their x2 first round picks and wanted to move up to Richmond's first pick, that's something I'd strongly consider in Richmond's position as an example trade I'd explore.

I wouldn't even dismiss an offer from Geelong of their x3 second round picks for pick 7 if they throw in an inconsequential player as a sweetner. I feel like I could do a fair bit with a combination of second round picks this year. I have a number of high conviction players who should be available at those picks. It's a rare year where I'd say someone's second round picks can get my top-10 pick in that kind of way if I'm the holder of that top-10 pick.

 

[M Malice]

Anything inside the top-10 picks I'd personally feel very comfortable moving out of given a lot of the names being spoken about in that range if the value is right.

If Brisbane were to offer their x2 first round picks and wanted to move up to Richmond's first pick, that's something I'd strongly consider in Richmond's position as an example trade I'd explore.

I wouldn't even dismiss an offer from Geelong of their x3 second round picks for pick 7 if they throw in an inconsequential player as a sweetner. I feel like I could do a fair bit with a combination of second round picks this year. I have a number of high conviction players who should be available at those picks. It's a rare year where I'd say someone's second round picks can get my top-10 pick in that kind of way if I'm the holder of that top-10 pick.

So if you were Brisbane you wouldn't be giving up those 2 first round selections?

Looking at Brisbane's list which draftees would you assess as 2 good fits for us with those selections that could be realistically available in that range?

Would you be in favour of us trading out next years first rounder(Ashcroft possible top 5 next year) for a pick in this years and take 3 picks under 20 to this years draft and go/hope for a Port like 2018 draft ie. Rozee, Butters, Duursma.

 

[Knightmare]

So if you were Brisbane you wouldn't be giving up those 2 first round selections?

Looking at Brisbane's list which draftees would you assess as 2 good fits for us with those selections that could be realistically available in that range?

Would you be in favour of us trading out next years first rounder(Ashcroft possible top 5 next year) for a pick in this years and take 3 picks under 20 to this years draft and go/hope for a Port like 2018 draft ie. Rozee, Butters, Duursma.

Again, this is only based on my evaluation of where I feel there are value opportunities in the draft based on where I think I could get the players I like, but I'd rather hold those two late first rounders over moving into the top-10. There is for me a relative lack of standouts for me of those being spoken about as top-10 picks, and some perhaps even in the second or third round who could be better.

I'd either retain those picks or even consider move one of them back for a couple of second round picks.

I'd hold the future first round pick for utility value. What if Brisbane aren't a top-4 side next year? That pick next offseason becomes more valuable. Learn from Collingwood is my tip. Don't be too eager to move on that future first. There is no need to rush and players can always be moved out if desperate to get another pick in a particular part of the draft.

I'd rather trade for a future pick than trade one away, as clubs pay a price premium for a pick in the offseason they're in, as they will trade for that pick in this year's draft with a target in mind.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

LDU - burst away attacking midfielder

Philips - in and under warrior that creates space in tight for others

Powell - inside/outside creative midfielder

Simpkin: Gut running box to box midfielder

Stephenson - Skilful outside mid who can switch forward

Thomas - creative hard ball winning marking and goal kickng mid that will earn the tag

There's a spot there for Horne playing that kind of role as a two way running hard nosed mid imo.

Powell is good but i don't see him as a really creative player, like he can create but not at an absolute elite level, i'd honestly say i feel Simpkin does. Simpkin is a gut running midfielder but also finds it inside/outside and is creative.

 

[Psicosis]

Powell is good but i don't see him as a really creative player, like he can create but not at an absolute elite level, i'd honestly say i feel Simpkin does. Simpkin is a gut running midfielder but also finds it inside/outside and is creative.

Appreciate your opinion Dommy, but I suggest you stay in your lane on this one. Powell is more creative then Simpkin at the same age...

 

[Wild Bill]

Appreciate your opinion Dommy, but I suggest you stay in your lane on this one. Powell is more creative then Simpkin at the same age...

Yeah his hands are great - got big numbers in under 18's. Natural ball hunter - type of player that make others look good.

We haven't had a high posession mid in a long time - hoping that is Powell.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Appreciate your opinion Dommy, but I suggest you stay in your lane on this one. Powell is more creative then Simpkin at the same age...

I was more talking about kicking, i feel Simpkin atm is a very creative player and i don't see Powell having that talent at the moment, it's likely he does and i can't see it tho.

 

[theyellowsash]

Appreciate your opinion Dommy, but I suggest you stay in your lane on this one. Powell is more creative then Simpkin at the same age...

thats the sort of stuff shane edwards was doing for us early on. id imagine if he turned into a player of that quality you'd be happy?

 

[The Dr]

Super random question KM, but whose list would you rate the highest right now? As in if you were a coach and given a choice of all 18 lists, which one looks best?


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[Knightmare]

Super random question KM, but whose list would you rate the highest right now? As in if you were a coach and given a choice of all 18 lists, which one looks best?

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Great question.

If I'm coaching and I my hope is to win premierships and have a perennial contender, I'd go with the Dogs at the moment. Having a contending side now with the best and deepest midfield in the competition and the most extensive combination of young key forwards in the competition, there is no need for the Dogs for a long time to have any lull, or for that matter unnecessarily waste list positions on speculative key forwards when the posts are pretty easily covered for the next 10-15 years. I've long felt with the Dogs there more than any other list, positional move opportunities that can further improve the results they're achieving, so that would also play a part in my decision.

The other clubs I'd consider, and it depends on what I'm after. But Port Adelaide would if I'm coaching be that unlucky second. They're well covered in all age groups and again a contending side, but I really like their youth. People who don't support Port Adelaide have probably forgotten about him, or at least forgotten how good he is, but when healthy, Zak Butters is their best player. I thought Butters was actually Port Adelaide's best player in 2020, and in the preseason he was looking every bit that guy. Connor Rozee has had a down season and has a lot of scope to improve on what he has been doing this season. Then Willem Drew who has long been a favourite of mine is a beast through the midfield and defensively is one of the best in the business and a contested beast in his own right.

If I wanted a challenge, and I'm Clarko let's say, I'd go to the Gold Coast. They have incredible youth, perhaps best in the competition incredible on natural talent, and as has always been the case, they've just never been able to develop their players to their potential. If a Clarko brings in his own staff who he can work with, bring in some worthwhile veteran leaders and established players, and a bit like Paul Roos turning things around with Melbourne, I can see a Clarko having similar success setting Gold Coast on course to not just develop their youth, but also develop a premiership contender. That's one of those legacy cementers if Clarko can make that group into a premiership team. It's the equivalent in AFL coaching terms to LeBron bringing a championship to Cleveland.

 

[briztoon]

Great question.

If I'm coaching and I my hope is to win premierships and have a perennial contender, I'd go with the Dogs at the moment. Having a contending side now with the best and deepest midfield in the competition and the most extensive combination of young key forwards in the competition, there is no need for the Dogs for a long time to have any lull, or for that matter unnecessarily waste list positions on speculative key forwards when the posts are pretty easily covered for the next 10-15 years. I've long felt with the Dogs there more than any other list, positional move opportunities that can further improve the results they're achieving, so that would also play a part in my decision.

The other clubs I'd consider, and it depends on what I'm after. But Port Adelaide would if I'm coaching be that unlucky second. They're well covered in all age groups and again a contending side, but I really like their youth. People who don't support Port Adelaide have probably forgotten about him, or at least forgotten how good he is, but when healthy, Zak Butters is their best player. I thought Butters was actually Port Adelaide's best player in 2020, and in the preseason he was looking every bit that guy. Connor Rozee has had a down season and has a lot of scope to improve on what he has been doing this season. Then Willem Drew who has long been a favourite of mine is a beast through the midfield and defensively is one of the best in the business and a contested beast in his own right.

If I wanted a challenge, and I'm Clarko let's say, I'd go to the Gold Coast. They have incredible youth, perhaps best in the competition incredible on natural talent, and as has always been the case, they've just never been able to develop their players to their potential. If a Clarko brings in his own staff who he can work with, bring in some worthwhile veteran leaders and established players, and a bit like Paul Roos turning things around with Melbourne, I can see a Clarko having similar success setting Gold Coast on course to not just develop their youth, but also develop a premiership contender. That's one of those legacy cementers if Clarko can make that group into a premiership team. It's the equivalent in AFL coaching terms to LeBron bringing a championship to Cleveland.

Geezus you must not watch any Port games. I think Zac Butters gets mentioned 10 times a game as being Ports best player, whether he’s playing or not.

Not best young player, but best player full stop.

 

[Chris25]

It's the equivalent in AFL coaching terms to LeBron bringing a championship to Cleveland.

As a Cleveland sports fan, not even close! Cursed for 52 years and 147 combined seasons of no championships. And that’s a city who lives and breathes their teams.

Nothing like a non traditional AFL city losing for 12 years.

 

[Davo-27]

Super random question KM, but whose list would you rate the highest right now? As in if you were a coach and given a choice of all 18 lists, which one looks best?


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i really like these videos from Melbourne, shows how good your recruiter is, he targets who he needs and has a near perfect record, which is why you have improved so much recently with your youngsters, Port Adelaide are in the same position and you both might be playing off in the Grand Final this year, people saying the draft doesnt matter, dont understand that the 2021 premiership might be played off by the 2 best recent draft teams atm.

btw i love that Melb, North ect do this, i cant find many other clubs that do this, i wish the Hawks did it, but they are overly secretive with everything they do in recent times.

 

[Wild Bill]

thats the sort of stuff shane edwards was doing for us early on. id imagine if he turned into a player of that quality you'd be happy?

100%!! Edwards is a gun. So underrated.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Thoughts on Neil Erasmus KM? Also i asked him who he models his game on he said a bit of Elliot Yeo

6

Elliot Yeo

Age

31

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.5

5star

K

11.7

4star

HB

7.8

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.5

5star

MG

377.9

5star

D

18.9

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

5.8

5star

MG

287.4

4star

D

16.6

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.6

3star

and Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

, do you think that was modelling on his weaknesses? (aka being an absolute bull) as i see him as a more classy player and clean and mid-fwd etc.

 

[The Dr]

Great question.

If I'm coaching and I my hope is to win premierships and have a perennial contender, I'd go with the Dogs at the moment. Having a contending side now with the best and deepest midfield in the competition and the most extensive combination of young key forwards in the competition, there is no need for the Dogs for a long time to have any lull, or for that matter unnecessarily waste list positions on speculative key forwards when the posts are pretty easily covered for the next 10-15 years. I've long felt with the Dogs there more than any other list, positional move opportunities that can further improve the results they're achieving, so that would also play a part in my decision.

The other clubs I'd consider, and it depends on what I'm after. But Port Adelaide would if I'm coaching be that unlucky second. They're well covered in all age groups and again a contending side, but I really like their youth. People who don't support Port Adelaide have probably forgotten about him, or at least forgotten how good he is, but when healthy, Zak Butters is their best player. I thought Butters was actually Port Adelaide's best player in 2020, and in the preseason he was looking every bit that guy. Connor Rozee has had a down season and has a lot of scope to improve on what he has been doing this season. Then Willem Drew who has long been a favourite of mine is a beast through the midfield and defensively is one of the best in the business and a contested beast in his own right.

If I wanted a challenge, and I'm Clarko let's say, I'd go to the Gold Coast. They have incredible youth, perhaps best in the competition incredible on natural talent, and as has always been the case, they've just never been able to develop their players to their potential. If a Clarko brings in his own staff who he can work with, bring in some worthwhile veteran leaders and established players, and a bit like Paul Roos turning things around with Melbourne, I can see a Clarko having similar success setting Gold Coast on course to not just develop their youth, but also develop a premiership contender. That's one of those legacy cementers if Clarko can make that group into a premiership team. It's the equivalent in AFL coaching terms to LeBron bringing a championship to Cleveland.

Great call re the Dogs and Power. I think they do look like standouts. I don’t mind the Swans long-term either.




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[Knightmare]

Geezus you must not watch any Port games. I think Zac Butters gets mentioned 10 times a game as being Ports best player, whether he’s playing or not.

Not best young player, but best player full stop.

Do they? I don't listen to commentary. I either have it off or I'm talking all through it.

I don't disagree that Butters is Port Adelaide's best.

As a Cleveland sports fan, not even close! Cursed for 52 years and 147 combined seasons of no championships. And that’s a city who lives and breathes their teams.

Nothing like a non traditional AFL city losing for 12 years.

Gold Coast obviously don't have the history of sports teams Cleveland do, but in terms or relative patheticness in the context of the competition there are similarities, though in the case of the Suns, they've yet to make the finals, which at least the Cavs (I don't follow the other US sports teams), but at least the Cavs have had even before LeBron their reasonable playoff teams.

As cities, I guess the difference is one is a worthwhile holiday destination and the other, well, isn't if we're being honest:

Thoughts on Neil Erasmus KM? Also i asked him who he models his game on he said a bit of Elliot Yeo and Clayton Oliver, do you think that was modelling on his weaknesses? (aka being an absolute bull) as i see him as a more classy player and clean and mid-fwd etc.

Interesting he sees himself as that kind of midfielder. If he can develop the contested capabilities like either of them, that's a sensational outcome.

There are some similar aspects to Yeo I'd say a lot more than Oliver. Erasmus' special sauce, and to a much greater degree than his contested ball winning is how he reads it and his marking capabilities. He's a special level reader of the ball in flight and exceptional intercept mark. So he shouldn't just be restricted to playing inside.

Great call re the Dogs and Power. I think they do look like standouts. I don’t mind the Swans long-term either.

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Swans have great youth and have the established winning culture. Sydney's 24 and unders in particular are sensational when you go through the names.

In terms of player improvement, Sydney along with Essendon, Melbourne and Hawthorn this year have really done an astounding job developing talent I didn't see coming on to the level they have. I have to give credits to all those teams.

 

[LittleG]

As a Cleveland sports fan, not even close! Cursed for 52 years and 147 combined seasons of no championships. And that’s a city who lives and breathes their teams.

Nothing like a non traditional AFL city losing for 12 years.

Browns and Freo. That’s tough. Let’s hope Freo brings you some joy soon.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Knightmare, I’m interested in your thoughts on the Giants draft this year.

I note you haven’t been as high on Callaghan on many of the pundits and even recruitment managers that seem to constantly refer to him after the big 3.

With our selection being Pick 2 the temptation will be there to take him with the other player we are seemingly looking at being Gibcus who I note you also don’t have as high as others.

With our list sitting the way it is which way do you think we will go particularly with our two first rounders? Clearly we have a need for a key defender with Davis on the way out and long term injuries to Keeffe and Buckley but is that addressed via a trade in or the draft?

A player I am quite keen on with our 2nd 1st rounder is Wanganeen-Milera whom I think. could be a difference maker with his silky skills.