Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Keystone agony]

Taranto, Hopper and Green are all slow ball winners. GWS need something different through there. They could trade one of Hopper on Green in for something else for some diversity through there.

Amiss top-5 would be as much of a reach as Gibcus in the top-5 would be. Amiss' lack of confidence in front of goal and inability to kick it more than 40m at times was troubling. Luckily it appears to be an outlier rather than the trend. I like with Amiss that he's a later developer. Not sure on his growth as I can't find data from years past, but if he also grew later and has grown a lot recently, that would help his case if anyone has information on his height from years past.

If Amiss goes first round, I wouldn't have thought it would be inside the top-10.

Yeh I have Amiss not getting any further out than pick 10 but that's what opinions are for and I'm going against the general consensus with that

I wouldn't take Gibcus in the first round but that's also just me, I just wouldn't be surprised to see a club in need pounce earlier than expected. Sun's and GWS are both in need but really they should be downgrading their pick 2/3 if that's the case

 

[Knightmare]

KM What impact do you think Vic Metro kids having missed 2 years of footy development will have on their ability to step into an AFL system and will clubs factor this into draft selections.. How long do you think we will see an impact on this for the Vic kids?.. IMO its a huge issue and could cost a generation of kids who are missing critical formative development in the game, it should be a key consideration for the AFL in pushing the draft age out.

It should in theory mean they're a fair way behind. Not being able to train or play. That doesn't help anyone. Stacking on top of that, you've got the NAB League less resourced. And it's hard to see how from Vic Metro or Country for that matter could produce comparable talent to what we see come through normally. I see a number of years worth of kids being impacted negatively.

That said, I wouldn't go pushing the draft age out. I don't see that making any difference other than losing talent to other codes. The extending the NAB League out to an u19 competition though is a move I like and feel does well in giving those guys another year to develop and impress.

From there it's just clubs needing to change their mindset and have a more favourable view towards those overagers and for that matter mature agers in the state leagues who are playing good footy if they're to maximise the outcomes they yield from a given draft.

Yeh I have Amiss not getting any further out than pick 10 but that's what opinions are for and I'm going against the general consensus with that

I wouldn't take Gibcus in the first round but that's also just me, I just wouldn't be surprised to see a club in need pounce earlier than expected. Sun's and GWS are both in need but really they should be downgrading their pick 2/3 if that's the case

You're to be applauded for having a different opinion to the consensus. There is nothing more dull than seeing everyone's board looking the same.

I'm not advocating Gibcus first round either. It's just expected he goes very early due to the scarcity in the way of worthwhile talls this year.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on classy 192cm midfielder Matthew Johnson, the top performers from SA v WA, reaction to Jason Horne-Francis' performance and a Nick Daicos update:

Unusual for a tall midfielder, Johnson appears to think and move faster than others following the ball. He possesses not only a quick first step, but before he even wins or receives the ball, he appears to have already planned how he is going to move and what he's going to do.

Point of discussion: Any of the Jason Horne-Francis advocates ready to finally admit he wouldn't be a 30d+ player in the NAB League? Very interested in those Horne-Francis fans as to whether he has dropped down from that best SA prospect ever/since Gibbs/next Danger/next Dusty/next Petracca projections.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...-impresses-wa-nick-daicos-jason-horne-francis

 

[Ah12]

Point of discussion: Any of the Jason Horne-Francis advocates ready to finally admit he wouldn't be a 30d+ player in the NAB League? Very interested in those Horne-Francis fans as to whether he has dropped down from that best SA prospect ever/since Gibbs/next Danger/next Dusty/next Petracca projections.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...-impresses-wa-nick-daicos-jason-horne-francis

Ive seen him collect 20+ disposals playing a mid fwd role at SANFL level. Play him on the ball full time in the NAB league and hes a walking 30.

 

[Knightmare]

Ive seen him collect 20+ disposals playing a mid fwd role at SANFL level. Play him on the ball full time in the NAB league and hes a walking 30.

It's not about what you do at your best, but what you do on average. Horne-Francis is sub 16d per game player in the SANFL at League level. And that does come with forward minutes of course.

I had him at 28d if he's in the NAB League, but would even be tempted to revise him down to 26-27d, even if he's playing as a mid full time. He's not someone who has an easy time finding a lot of the footy and at stoppages if you block his run at the footy, he's not going to get his hands on it a lot as per v WA where Sheldrick didn't allow Horne-Francis that run at the ball, and that's been a theme in those games where Horne-Francis has struggled to win much of it through the midfield.

He's not an elite accumulator or ball winner. He's not an easy accumulator, finding it hard to find much of it out the outside, and needing the conditions to be right at stoppages to win as much of the footy as he'd like.

Being an only moderate accumulator doesn't make Horne-Francis a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but for me it does cap his upside and seems to be the point - other than a lot of overrating of what he does forward of centre where I have much milder expectations than a lot of other draft watchers.

 

[chopflop]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on classy 192cm midfielder Matthew Johnson, the top performers from SA v WA, reaction to Jason Horne-Francis' performance and a Nick Daicos update:



Point of discussion: Any of the Jason Horne-Francis advocates ready to finally admit he wouldn't be a 30d+ player in the NAB League? Very interested in those Horne-Francis fans as to whether he has dropped down from that best SA prospect ever/since Gibbs/next Danger/next Dusty/next Petracca projections.

https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...-impresses-wa-nick-daicos-jason-horne-francis

I get it now. You are a troll.

Clickbait knightmare. Be better

 

[Knightmare]

I get it now. You are a troll.

Clickbait knightmare. Be better

I'm finding this year more than any single year past there is greater separation in my views to other draft watchers, and by a considerable margin. It will show up in a big way when my September Power Rankings are up on ESPN next week, with my level of conviction much higher on a lot of players who aren't receiving much or in some cases any coverage. And with the small sample size this year and limited to none last year for some states, that should be expected.

I make no apology for having my own position on any prospect, state leaguer, or AFL footballer past or present. Nor should anyone need apologise for having their own positions on players.

What this dynamic of such vast difference in opinion of players, and I'm not just talking about Horne-Francis who still fundamentally I rate on my board where others will have him on theirs, just with much milder expectation, it's a draft I'd be very happy to be largely trading out of in the early rounds to capitalise on the opportunities I'm seeing late to secure a number of guys who can outperform a good number of players projected to feature first round.

 

[Chris25]

Point of discussion: Any of the Jason Horne-Francis advocates ready to finally admit he wouldn't be a 30d+ player in the NAB League? Very interested in those Horne-Francis fans as to whether he has dropped down from that best SA prospect ever/since Gibbs/next Danger/next Dusty/next Petracca projections.

I had him at 28d if he's in the NAB League, but would even be tempted to revise him down to 26-27d, even if he's playing as a mid full time.

It depends if all you care about is stats, or if you actually watch and assess the impact he has. And if you think there's a great deal of difference between averaging 26 and 28, then obviously the stat sheet is what matters to you. But regardless he averaged 26 touches a game at U18 level last year as a 17 year old, and let's just say he hasn't gotten worse since then.

 

[blueiris]

Would the Lions go key positions this year they have 2 quality midfielders available in next years draft in Ashcroft and Fletcher who out of the key position players would be ready to play early next season?

 

[Davo-27]

It depends if all you care about is stats, or if you actually watch and assess the impact he has. And if you think there's a great deal of difference between averaging 26 and 28, then obviously the stat sheet is what matters to you. But regardless he averaged 26 touches a game at U18 level last year as a 17 year old, and let's just say he hasn't gotten worse since then.

productivity is a concern, his critique is valid.

 

[Chris25]

productivity is a concern, his critique is valid.

It’s really not a concern. But I’m sure a bunch of clubs hope North are overreacting to the stats sheet too.

 

[Swiggy]

Who’s a better fit for freo?
Amiss JVR or Williams?

 

[Knightmare]

It depends if all you care about is stats, or if you actually watch and assess the impact he has. And if you think there's a great deal of difference between averaging 26 and 28, then obviously the stat sheet is what matters to you. But regardless he averaged 26 touches a game at U18 level last year as a 17 year old, and let's just say he hasn't gotten worse since then.

Productivity and impact both matter. When assessing a footballer, it's not an either/or equation. It's both you want.

If you have both, you're going to be ahead of someone who only has one of those generally speaking. And if someone has a better combination of both, not always, but generally they're going to be the better footballer.

26d in the SANFL U18s doesn't directly equate to 26d in the NAB League. NAB League is not greatly, but certainly an incrementally higher standard of football with a greater number of capable footballers playing at the level. Watching NAB League each week, and watching a lot of Horne-Francis this year, his game doesn't translate to high disposal numbers. He could get to that 26-27d range on average, and he'd be around that 14 contested possession mark as he wins a high proportion at stoppages and feature high for tackles (he could average 6-7) and get roughly his goal per game. Those aren't scrub numbers. It's just a realistic projection of what he'd be finding against that standard of competition as he doesn't have an easy time finding it outside stoppages and can at stoppages be limited if he's manned up on someone who knows to take away his run at the football. As we see in the SANFL, he'd have his better and worse production games as a consequence of that.

I happen to agree with you that Horne-Francis is influential. Defensively as I've said consistently there are none better with how he chases and tackles to a best in draft calibre. And he has on top of that the capability to win it at stoppages on the move off the bounce and occasionally i50 fly for the footy which are his two other ways of impacting games at this stage.

As a prospect, I continue to hold Horne-Francis at the #2 spot in my power rankings, and I feel he's a safe pick. I don't however see the ceiling others are seeing. He's not someone where if he was thrown into a draft past that I'd be projecting him to be the best in that pool. He's for me at least a long way off being the generational kind of talent some, and maybe yourself believe he has the scope to be. He's closer to Ben Keays than he is a Danger/Dusty/Petracca. And I do believe he can be better than Keays as he's a little quicker and more of an aerial marking threat, but he's closer in terms of what he should develop into, to that style and calibre of footballer Keays has this year developed into. And I watch Adelaide. Keays is no scrub and one of their very best. But like Keays, I'm not expecting Horne to be that franchise player. I don't see many of those this year unless things really go right with a Darcy/Callaghan or some other later blooming type we're not at this stage expecting to reach that level.

Would the Lions go key positions this year they have 2 quality midfielders available in next years draft in Ashcroft and Fletcher who out of the key position players would be ready to play early next season?

I don't see Brisbane needing to go midfield heavy this year. Key position players if there is a value choice could be considered, though it's more general backs that need a boost, and perhaps some general forwards and outside types could also be considered if drafting for need.

Who’s a better fit for freo?
Amiss JVR or Williams?

JVR I really liked in defence on the weekend, so he appears to be the pick of the key defenders. Amiss given his late development though should be the preferred choice of forward. Amiss likely if there would be prioritised with that first pick if Fremantle were committed to going tall and local first up, as JVR and Williams aren't generally viewed as first round choices at this stage.

 

[Chris25]

Productivity and impact both matter. When assessing a footballer, it's not an either/or equation. It's both you want.

If you have both, you're going to be ahead of someone who only has one of those generally speaking. And if someone has a better combination of both, not always, but generally they're going to be the better footballer.

26d in the SANFL U18s doesn't directly equate to 26d in the NAB League. NAB League is not greatly, but certainly an incrementally higher standard of football with a greater number of capable footballers playing at the level. Watching NAB League each week, and watching a lot of Horne-Francis this year, his game doesn't translate to high disposal numbers. He could get to that 26-27d range on average, and he'd be around that 14 contested possession mark as he wins a high proportion at stoppages and feature high for tackles (he could average 6-7) and get roughly his goal per game. Those aren't scrub numbers.

Ignoring the Keays mention - his own mother wouldn't put him in the same sentence as Horne-Francis.

But again, you're so focused on stats. Productivity doesn't mean getting 30+ touches every game. It's such a random benchmark to say 30 is productive, but 26 is a concern. Like it really matters.

 

[Ah12]

Do you think Horne can increase his output in an AFL system? I don't know LDU’s stats as a junior but he was low production for years, now starting to find the pill. Same as Petracca, both similair athletes to that of Horne. In an AFL system where it becomes his life do they not teach him body positioning at centre bounce etc.?

 

[chopflop]

there is greater separation in my views to other draft watchers, and by a considerable margin.

And that doesn't preclude you from a respectful tone towards other views. Phrasing like "am I the only one that has x player on their board" implies everyone else is at best uninformed, or at worst, an idiot.

It's such a random benchmark to say 30 is productive, but 26 is a concern. Like it really matters.

I agree. Disposal averages here are completely arbitrary. The eye test on Horne on the weekend showed his midfield craft and positioning needed work but he will start out as a dynamic HFF and in time could become anything as a mid. At worst he is a can't miss 30 goal a season HFF.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Moore's xfactor is the most underrated part of his game, look at all of the stuff that Kozzy can pull off, it's freakish but Moore literally has the nickname Moorey Magic, he's unreal super underrated and is just a genuine under 22 star.

I don’t know who this player is

 

[Bojan KantKick]

It's not about what you do at your best, but what you do on average. Horne-Francis is sub 16d per game player in the SANFL at League level. And that does come with forward minutes of course.

I had him at 28d if he's in the NAB League, but would even be tempted to revise him down to 26-27d, even if he's playing as a mid full time. He's not someone who has an easy time finding a lot of the footy and at stoppages if you block his run at the footy, he's not going to get his hands on it a lot as per v WA where Sheldrick didn't allow Horne-Francis that run at the ball, and that's been a theme in those games where Horne-Francis has struggled to win much of it through the midfield.

He's not an elite accumulator or ball winner. He's not an easy accumulator, finding it hard to find much of it out the outside, and needing the conditions to be right at stoppages to win as much of the footy as he'd like.

Being an only moderate accumulator doesn't make Horne-Francis a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but for me it does cap his upside and seems to be the point - other than a lot of overrating of what he does forward of centre where I have much milder expectations than a lot of other draft watchers.

He'll get to learn from one of, if not the best pure stoppage player in the AFL in Ben Cunnington for the next 3-5 seasons. I'm sure he'll be fine.

 

[Giant Pete]

GWS have a lot of good mids, but it's a lot of similar mids.

Callaghan would in a GWS context be a contrasting mid. I think they hold the pick and take him at 2. Horne if he were to be available similarly I think they'd take as again a different mid.

No doubt GWS will discuss others, but 2 is entirely too early to go tall.

Do we know exactly how good a runner Callaghan is?

 

[Knightmare]

Ignoring the Keays mention - his own mother wouldn't put him in the same sentence as Horne-Francis.

But again, you're so focused on stats. Productivity doesn't mean getting 30+ touches every game. It's such a random benchmark to say 30 is productive, but 26 is a concern. Like it really matters.

Keays isn't an empty possession getter, and that's exactly why I bring him up as he's not that household name and other than probably Adelaide fans there isn't a widespread realisiation as to how good he is. He might be Adelaide's best midfielder as we speak. He's absolutely finding and winning a lot of the footy in bunches, but his tackling, pressure acts and tackles i50 are all elite by position which is where I see Horne-Francis' edge being at the next level and what I'll be looking for him also to excel at if he's to fulfill his potential, as a major component of his game as it is for Keays. Keays can use the footy, he's not a liability with it, move pretty well and as he showed as a junior can also be a threat forward of centre, and he still kicked some goals this year. I don't see Horne-Francis developing his endurance to as high of a level or necessarily even being as high volume of an accumulator. He might not even be as good of a ball user as Keays.

The point you're missing when I'm talking about Horne-Francis being a 26-27d per game player in the NAB League is I'm not citing that as a point of particular concern. It's merely a prediction of how much of the footy I believe he would be accumulating against that level of competition. Just as I'd say during the U19 Championships if that were to go ahead in full he'd probably be around that 16-18d per game mark. For many months now, my thesis with Horne-Francis has been that if he's not finding a lot of the footy, he's still impacting games due to what he does defensively as that staple to his game, which is why I rate him at #2 on my board at this time.

Offensively and as an accumulator/ball winner is where I tend to be on the more conservative side with Horne-Francis. And others are welcome to have their own opinions as they should. That's the point of contribution on here being a forum. But my view is ball use is only average, enough to get by without worrying, but in no sense a weapon. While he'll win it on the move, it's generally a shallow run rarely covering more than 5m before disposing of the ball - so there is nothing Danger-esque there. And struggling when not getting that free run at the ball it also caps him as a ball winner/accumulator.

Do you think Horne can increase his output in an AFL system? I don't know LDU’s stats as a junior but he was low production for years, now starting to find the pill. Same as Petracca, both similair athletes to that of Horne. In an AFL system where it becomes his life do they not teach him body positioning at centre bounce etc.?

Given Horne-Francis is a 15-16d player in the SANFL, I do think at AFL level he'll be a good amount better than that.

LDU is a 22-23d per game mid and maybe he gets to somewhere around that 24-26d mark when he peaks. Horne-Francis probably will find similar footy, though should do so in a quicker time horizon than with LDU given his junior play surprisingly slow to get up to pace.

And that doesn't preclude you from a respectful tone towards other views. Phrasing like "am I the only one that has x player on their board" implies everyone else is at best uninformed, or at worst, an idiot.

I agree. Disposal averages here are completely arbitrary. The eye test on Horne on the weekend showed his midfield craft and positioning needed work but he will start out as a dynamic HFF and in time could become anything as a mid. At worst he is a can't miss 30 goal a season HFF.

My implication is my view differs dramatically to anyone else regarding this year's draft pool. I don't share the optimism around a lot of those expected to feature early and there will be a good number of uniques on my board who others won't have anywhere near their top-20 which is just the way things are moving this year. Rightly or wrongly, only hindsight will give us the answer, and with it will come the opportunity to learn from those hits/misses on either side of the ledger.

He'll get to learn from one of, if not the best pure stoppage player in the AFL in Ben Cunnington for the next 3-5 seasons. I'm sure he'll be fine.

Cunnington has proven an effective leader and young player developer. He has done wonders to his credit with Tarryn Thomas who has transformed into a seriously good footballer now.

Do we know exactly how good a runner Callaghan is?

I'll defer to others for any athletic testing data if they have it on hand, but his movement is Bont-like. In game though (this is what I care about): Compared to Bont: similar agility, movement through traffic and burst of speed, though I'd even say with a greater degree of evasion in how he moves. His movement is that special sauce with Callaghan at that height that makes him of early draft interest.

 

[Billyc]

I watched the game on the weekend. I agree with Knightmare’s critique of Horne-Francis’ game. If I wasn’t watching him specifically because I was expecting/wanting to see something to justify the hype, I’d have barely noticed him. Also agree with critique of Johnson’s game, who I found impressive. Whether he’s another Dom Tyson

21

Dom Tyson

Age

31

Ht

186cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.3

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

12.0

5star

M

4.3

4star

T

3.5

5star

CL

3.8

5star

No current season stats available

D

14.0

4star

K

5.0

2star

HB

9.0

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

2.4

5star

or someone who can translate better to AFL I don’t know, but he was clean, skilful and damaging.

 

[Knightmare]

I watched the game on the weekend. I agree with Knightmare’s critique of Horne-Francis’ game. If I wasn’t watching him specifically because I was expecting/wanting to see something to justify the hype, I’d have barely noticed him. Also agree with critique of Johnson’s game, who I found impressive. Whether he’s another Dom Tyson or someone who can translate better to AFL I don’t know, but he was clean, skilful and damaging.

My thing with Johnson is, that's the fourth game of his I've seen this year.

The first three were complete flops that I saw, and it was during the first half of the season. That's why he has dropped so far down my board compared to where he started the year.

He has however come good in more recent weeks and was for mine the best midfielder afield and was my choice of best afield. He certainly has the tricks with ball in hand. But he will need to show he can find and win it every week and become that consistently influential player. He'll need to continue improving.

For me he's a real boom/bust pick. His ceiling is incredibly high if everything really works out, but it's going to come down to how he develops. He reminds me a lot of Will Setterfield as that skilled tall mid who I just hope can become that consistent accumulator and ball winner through the midfield. He might be one where if drafted by a good team, he could be really good, but if picked by a team without the veteran leadership and good coaching may as with Setterfield have a hard time developing to potential. If things go right, there are those Pendlebury-esque vibes. No way he will be as good from my viewings this year, but perhaps he could be somewhere inbetween the two and maybe be a David Mundy or something closer to that calibre if things work out.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey KM,

Has your view on Dylan Stephens

15

Dylan Stephens

Age

24

Ht

184cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

10.3

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.7

4star

CL

0.0

1star

change since draft year? I'm seeing some decent weapons, but I think his ceiling is probably a wingman like Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

36

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

, which wouldn't be a bad result.

If Stephens was in this year's draft, where would you consider him?

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Ignoring the Keays mention - his own mother wouldn't put him in the same sentence as Horne-Francis.

But again, you're so focused on stats. Productivity doesn't mean getting 30+ touches every game. It's such a random benchmark to say 30 is productive, but 26 is a concern. Like it really matters.

Keays has been outstanding this year. Not sure why you would take exception to the comparison. He’s become avery high caliber mid at Adelaide. Just because he went in the 20’s doesn’t stop him becoming an excellent player worthy of comparison.. let’s not forget Fyfe went at 20 and he has 3 AA and a Brownlow.

My thing with Johnson is, that's the fourth game of his I've seen this year.

The first three were complete flops that I saw, and it was during the first half of the season. That's why he has dropped so far down my board compared to where he started the year.

He has however come good in more recent weeks and was for mine the best midfielder afield and was my choice of best afield. He certainly has the tricks with ball in hand. But he will need to show he can find and win it every week and become that consistently influential player. He'll need to continue improving.

For me he's a real boom/bust pick. His ceiling is incredibly high if everything really works out, but it's going to come down to how he develops. He reminds me a lot of Will Setterfield as that skilled tall mid who I just hope can become that consistent accumulator and ball winner through the midfield. He might be one where if drafted by a good team, he could be really good, but if picked by a team without the veteran leadership and good coaching may as with Setterfield have a hard time developing to potential. If things go right, there are those Pendlebury-esque vibes. No way he will be as good from my viewings this year, but perhaps he could be somewhere inbetween the two and maybe be a David Mundy or something closer to that calibre if things work out.

Setterfield was an absolute star. Never recovered from a wretched run of injuries in his first or second year of NEAFL when with GWS. He was on track to be very very good back then. Broken unit now poor bloke.

 

[HumanMeatball]

Overall is it a better draft than last year?