Player Watch Lachie Schultz

[Carlthetruth]

More bad news for Shooter haters, 18.40 in Footy Class, Mathew Lloyd "Judge him after 3 years, I think he'll play 200 games for Collingwood" So for those going off prematurely, you can get a nasal spray for that!

 

[Vankri]

The main challenge here has nothing to do with his performance but everything to do with the team’s and how poorly the season has gone because of the price we’re going to end up paying. The club took a gamble and lost, it happens and I don’t think it was unwarranted. You have to take risks in the window with an aging list and we would have a couple of wins/couple less injuries away from competing for top 4 right now and no one would complain about our second most prolific goal scorer.

Worth also noting that even structurally our team’s deficiencies have had nothing to do with forward pressure or ground ball game F50. In fact that’s been a strength and he’s been part of it despite spending large portions of the year without McCreery and Elliott not to mention Checkers and McStay. We’ve had much much larger problems as an inside midfield unit and in our zone defence in our post Murphy reality, as well as inability to keep leads when trying to stifle the game (the opposite of manic forward pressure which you have to tone down when you play defence first positioning further down the field).

All that being said I’m still a bit disappointed in one thing and that’s nailing his set shots at key moments and it’s because I rated him highly in the first place and didn’t expect this to be such a problem. When you get 10-15 possession a game you have to make them count and as tough as it is for small forwards that includes goal kicking accuracy.

Still think he’ll be good for us next year and beyond but to be great he’s going to have to improve his conversion.

 

[partypie]

How about you stop acting like you know more about AFL coaching than our actual coaches do. Fly made very it very clear, blaming is loser behaviour, it's an actual quote from his last presser that I and a lot of other people happen to believe so if anyone wants to blame Shooter for the clubs performances that's their choice.

Another typically hyperbole-fuelled response from someone who (I'm now having to assume) thinks everyone should get a gold star and a pat on the back whether they've done something well or not.

Failure and the criticism that comes with it (both self- and external) is an actual driver of improvement last time I checked, people are so frigging sensitive about any form of non-positive feedback nowadays it's almost pathetic.

If you can't handle seeing a bit of criticism without hysterically blowing it up to infer something that wasn't written or said and without becoming ultra-defensive about it then, with all due respect, you can feel free to piss off and moan about the bad people who have non-positive things to say to someone who actually cares.

TL;DR - Both Schultz and our coaching panel have some work to do to improve on things they didn't appear to do well enough this year, hopefully those failures are the sort of driver for some real improvement. Giving everyone a pass grade, a pat on the back and then just glossing things over regardless of how they've performed is not how we will get to where we want to be.

 

[jmac70]

Says the guy who throws the club under the bus from the first breath of someone you never even heard of before without any evidence.

The CEO is not the club. I also acknowledged that he is entitled to his day in court.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Exactly, don't blame, it's a loser behavior, thanks for reinforcing the point.

Ignore Pie Beast. Perhaps the most annoying character around here.

 

[rand corp]

Agree with the notion it is not Lachie's fault, but the price we paid for him was just way too high

 

[sr36]

The main challenge here has nothing to do with his performance but everything to do with the team’s and how poorly the season has gone because of the price we’re going to end up paying. The club took a gamble and lost, it happens and I don’t think it was unwarranted. You have to take risks in the window with an aging list and we would have a couple of wins/couple less injuries away from competing for top 4 right now and no one would complain about our second most prolific goal scorer.

Worth also noting that even structurally our team’s deficiencies have had nothing to do with forward pressure or ground ball game F50. In fact that’s been a strength and he’s been part of it despite spending large portions of the year without McCreery and Elliott not to mention Checkers and McStay. We’ve had much much larger problems as an inside midfield unit and in our zone defence in our post Murphy reality, as well as inability to keep leads when trying to stifle the game (the opposite of manic forward pressure which you have to tone down when you play defence first positioning further down the field).

All that being said I’m still a bit disappointed in one thing and that’s nailing his set shots at key moments and it’s because I rated him highly in the first place and didn’t expect this to be such a problem. When you get 10-15 possession a game you have to make them count and as tough as it is for small forwards that includes goal kicking accuracy.

Still think he’ll be good for us next year and beyond but to be great he’s going to have to improve his conversion.

It actually wasn't even a greater risk. Season went to shit and it'll probably be about pick 9 0r 10 - roughly 50% chance of getting 100 games from that pick. Much the same for Schultz - I'd say a bit higher than that. He'll give us the average return for a pick in that range with far less chance of giving us nothing.

The pick was more likely to end up worse than pick 10 but will end at the bottom of likely range, but even where it is we'll most likely get an average return for that recruiting chip.

The pick is much better if building for the future as much higher chance of being elite, which is the really hard thing to find when building for the future, but for the time frame a team in the window would benefit most from the return from that recruiting chip - trading was safer.

 

[Vankri]

It actually wasn't even a greater risk. Season went to shit and it'll probably be about pick 9 0r 10 - roughly 50% chance of getting 100 games from that pick. Much the same for Schultz - I'd say a bit higher than that. He'll give us the average return for a pick in that range with far less chance of giving us nothing.

The pick was more likely to end up worse than pick 10 but will end at the bottom of likely range, but even where it is we'll most likely get an average return for that recruiting chip.

The pick is much better if building for the future as much higher chance of being elite, which is the really hard thing to find when building for the future, but for the time frame a team in the window would benefit most from the return from that recruiting chip - trading was safer.

I agree with the sentiment obviously but I think you’re underestimating the value of a top 8-10 pick. Every year that passes is a step towards more professional junior pathways and stronger club talent ID, not to mention population growth and a bigger national talent pool. I’m not saying hold on to the picks at all cost but I’d say soon enough they’ll be seen like you currently see a top 5 pick so you’d want more than Schultz. Regardless we don’t know exactly what it’ll end up and it’s not like we gave the pick knowing what it would be.

 

[sr36]

I agree with the sentiment obviously but I think you’re underestimating the value of a top 8-10 pick. Every year that passes is a step towards more professional junior pathways and stronger club talent ID, not to mention population growth and a bigger national talent pool. I’m not saying hold on to the picks at all cost but I’d say soon enough they’ll be seen like you currently see a top 5 pick so you’d want more than Schultz. Regardless we don’t know exactly what it’ll end up and it’s not like we gave the pick knowing what it would be.

You could e right. The youngsters are certainly coming on quicker than they used to.

 

[Seedsfan]

More bad news for Shooter haters, 18.40 in Footy Class, Mathew Lloyd "Judge him after 3 years, I think he'll play 200 games for Collingwood" So for those going off prematurely, you can get a nasal spray for that!

He may play 200 AFL games as he has a long term deal but he will never play 200 club games

 

[Carlthetruth]

Another typically hyperbole-fuelled response from someone who (I'm now having to assume) thinks everyone should get a gold star and a pat on the back whether they've done something well or not.

Failure and the criticism that comes with it (both self- and external) is an actual driver of improvement last time I checked, people are so frigging sensitive about any form of non-positive feedback nowadays it's almost pathetic.

If you can't handle seeing a bit of criticism without hysterically blowing it up to infer something that wasn't written or said and without becoming ultra-defensive about it then, with all due respect, you can feel free to piss off and moan about the bad people who have non-positive things to say to someone who actually cares.

TL;DR - Both Schultz and our coaching panel have some work to do to improve on things they didn't appear to do well enough this year, hopefully those failures are the sort of driver for some real improvement. Giving everyone a pass grade, a pat on the back and then just glossing things over regardless of how they've performed is not how we will get to where we want to be.

It's quite clear who is becoming hysterical, I haven't launched into an essay length word salad of trying to justify blame, scapegoating and making calls on small samples. Again, as Fly said in his presser, blaming is a losing behavior, doesn't mean you can't do it as this thread amply exemplifies.

 

[Carlthetruth]

I agree with the sentiment obviously but I think you’re underestimating the value of a top 8-10 pick. Every year that passes is a step towards more professional junior pathways and stronger club talent ID, not to mention population growth and a bigger national talent pool. I’m not saying hold on to the picks at all cost but I’d say soon enough they’ll be seen like you currently see a top 5 pick so you’d want more than Schultz. Regardless we don’t know exactly what it’ll end up and it’s not like we gave the pick knowing what it would be.

I think you're overestimating the value of a top 10 pick if it's a Danny Roach, Scharenberg or Nathan Freeman, look them up.

 

[stormskye]

I think you're overestimating the value of a top 10 pick if it's a Danny Roach, Scharenberg or Nathan Freeman, look them up.

For every buddy Franklin there’s a Richard Tambling.

 

[TW Sherrin]

it isn't his fault the club paid overs for him. that's Wrights error. protecting picks in trades should be available.

everyone can see he's missed some chances yet he is averaging the exact same number of shots he did at Freo last season whilst competing with Elliot, Hill and co. his accuracy has been the issue.


goals / points
2022 1.03 / 0.83
2023 1.43 / 0.83
2024 1.22 / 1.06


these are his down stats:

free kicks FF / FA
2022 1.09 / 1.52
2023 1.09 / 0.78
2024 0.61 / 0.78

contested possession / uncontested possession
2022 5.43 / 8.80
2023 5.52 / 10.13
2024 4.00 / 7.50

 

[Vankri]

I think you're overestimating the value of a top 10 pick if it's a Danny Roach, Scharenberg or Nathan Freeman, look them up.

For every buddy Franklin there’s a Richard Tambling.

Well aware of these thank you. They are examples from 10 or 20 years ago. When you look at the trend of games played by top 10 picks and immediate impact it’s very clear that clubs are getting better at identifying talent at the pointy end whilst there is at the same time a growth of the talent pool to choose from. The draft game has changed and I'll provide a few examples.

2023 draft: the average games played by the top 10 last year is 12.5 games, that's more than half the season so far (and Caddy and Read bring the average down and I don't think you'd bet against them to outperform the rest of the draft longer term).
2022 draft: Do the same exercise for the year prior and it's 30 games on average played for the top 12 which is incredible for a bunch of 18/19yos. If you want further proof of what I'm talking about there are only two players from that draft outside the top 12 that do better than that average and they were pick 18 and 19 so not that deep at all (Michalanney and Weddle).
2021 draft: The average games for the top 10 is 40 games and there are 2-3 players that beat that average further down the draft but you'd be crazy to think they have anywhere the same impact as the top end of JHF, Darcy, Callaghan, Naicos, Mac Andrew, Ward, Rachele, Amiss.

There are some outliers of course but they are getting rarer and rarer. The main one I can find in the past 4y is Gulden and that's because everyone was scared by his short height not to mention the impact of Covid on recruitment.

All this to say the professionalisation of the draft and the evolution of top 10 picks has been very clear to me for years and I think it will continue on until you can safely bank on the top end of the draft to be the best barring injuries and rare outliers. So whilst 10 years ago I would have considered Pick 8 a bit of a gamble anyway, I just see it differently today and think the club should too.

 

[sr36]

I think you're overestimating the value of a top 10 pick if it's a Danny Roach, Scharenberg or Nathan Freeman, look them up.

In fairness he did say he thinks things have changed due to better pathways and greater population, etc..

If you look at recent drafts, it does seem that the top end of drafts are getting stronger and deeper. However it is a year by year thing. 2020 is looking like a dud year for example.

Trading those future firsts is probably as much about how well you evaluate the future draft as anything else. And by the sounds of it, we've picked a shit year to trade out of- with the the teens picks and beyond supposedly much better prospects than normal - so even if we did have a good year on field - the pick was probably still too high.

 

[black is White]

it isn't his fault the club paid overs for him. that's Wrights error. protecting picks in trades should be available.

everyone can see he's missed some chances yet he is averaging the exact same number of shots he did at Freo last season whilst competing with Elliot, Hill and co. his accuracy has been the issue.


goals / points
2022 1.03 / 0.83
2023 1.43 / 0.83
2024 1.22 / 1.06


these are his down stats:

free kicks FF / FA
2022 1.09 / 1.52
2023 1.09 / 0.78
2024 0.61 / 0.78

contested possession / uncontested possession
2022 5.43 / 8.80
2023 5.52 / 10.13
2024 4.00 / 7.50

That's not a good defence. Everyone knows Bobby has had a down year and Elliot has struggled with injury and hasn't been at his absolute best and your telling us Shultzs best is level with both the other two in down years for them?

 

[sr36]

it isn't his fault the club paid overs for him. that's Wrights error. protecting picks in trades should be available.

everyone can see he's missed some chances yet he is averaging the exact same number of shots he did at Freo last season whilst competing with Elliot, Hill and co. his accuracy has been the issue.


goals / points
2022 1.03 / 0.83
2023 1.43 / 0.83
2024 1.22 / 1.06


these are his down stats:

free kicks FF / FA
2022 1.09 / 1.52
2023 1.09 / 0.78
2024 0.61 / 0.78

contested possession / uncontested possession
2022 5.43 / 8.80
2023 5.52 / 10.13
2024 4.00 / 7.50

Not just goals though - he just hasn't been as composed with the ball as I was expecting, considering the hype of him being an AA standard small forward (I hadn't paid any attention to him previously). Everything else about his game is very good though. So I'm hoping him being rushed and fluffing chances this year has been a transition and pressure thing that he'll overcome next year. Was he more composed with the footy at Freo?

 

[loki04]

More bad news for Shooter haters, 18.40 in Footy Class, Mathew Lloyd "Judge him after 3 years, I think he'll play 200 games for Collingwood" So for those going off prematurely, you can get a nasal spray for that!

So 25 games a season for 8 years ey? He's 27 in November.

 

[Mollythedolly]

So 25 games a season for 8 years ey? He's 27 in November.

I think the inference was he’ll be a 200+ game player, just worded it badly. Could still take another 4-5 years with good durability to even reach that mark so nothing is assured.

 

[Kappa]

I think the inference was he’ll be a 200+ game player, just worded it badly. Could still take another 4-5 years with good durability to even reach that mark so nothing is assured.

He'd have to still be best 22 by then. Once he loses a bit of pace he's in big trouble

 

[Mollythedolly]

He'd have to still be best 22 by then. Once he loses a bit of pace he's in big trouble

Not currently reliant on outright pace so shouldn’t be an issue.

 

[Kappa]

Not currently reliant on outright pace so shouldn’t be an issue.

I would argue he is. His pressure is the main thing he brings to the table, and once he slows down a yard that'll be the first to go

 

[Abdul_The_Bull]

I'm still willing to bet that this year is an outliner in terms of Shooter's role and we will all be better off with him in the team in the long run. He (and the team) will be better placed in a less injury-affected forward line where he will be playing his true role.

It's also worth noting that he has still managed to kick the second most goals for the Pies this year....

 

[FromTheBoundaryLine]

I'm still willing to bet that this year is an outliner in terms of Shooter's role and we will all be better off with him in the team in the long run. He (and the team) will be better placed in a less injury-affected forward line where he will be playing his true role.

It's also worth noting that he has still managed to kick the second most goals for the Pies this year....

Agree. Especially if we have Cox, Mihocek and McStay playing together regularly and someone like McCreery transitions to more midfield time or Hill spends a bit of time upfield.