ladder 2003

[Macca19]

Originally posted by ok.crows
OK, we'll go with that if you insist Macca.

Last year Crows forward line struggled a bit - but Crows still got the fourth highest overall score. From that 2002 forward line the Crows have lost Bienke & Fitzgerald, and IMO it is unlikely they will play Schell this year.

OK, in 2002 Bienke = 10 goals, Fitzgerald = 8 and Schell = 9 for a total of 27.

In 2003 Macca thinks 50 to 70 goals between Burns & Carey is LIKELY.

An improvement of at least 23 goals then Macca, and maybe as many as 43? And that is not even counting the possibility that Crows can get more games out of Welsh this year than they did last year.

I'll take it!

Maybe two or even three more wins this year over last if that happens Macca, 17-18 wins & a top 2 placing is on the cards then, do you think?

You wont hear me complaining. Ive got money on the crows winning the flag this year!

BUT...its all well and good on how your forward line will improve, but where will it decrease?? I dont think Burton will kick 52 goals this year....i think he will play more in the mifield and will kick 20 or so goals for the year. I can see Stevens playing more in defence this year, so his 38 goals might well drop as well. So these 23-43 extra goals suddenly goes down to around 5-25 extra goals.

Its just not that simple to work it out that way. For example Port has added Byron Pickett, who kicked 40 goals, to its forward line. Its to simple just to say 'so tahts en extra 40 goals this year'. If thats so we wont lose a game all year including finals.

Not to mention that in your theory you are implying that the rest of the competition will not improve and will stay the same as this year - which obviously will not happen. It is most likely that the teams around the Crows have improved as well which cancels out some of hte Crows imrpvement. Theres nothing stopping Port or Brisbane or Collingwood improving 30-40 goals as well.

 

[Ausgard]

Originally posted by Kenny_01
If that. I would say between 35-50.

Its injuries that will be ther killer

If they get 10 games out of Carey then they would probably be happy with 35 (though obviously not with only playing 10 games)

If Carey Plays 20 games he will probably kick 50-70 goals himself because even though he spent last year out of football the delivery of Adelaide is going to be better than what he got at north melbourne and he will be most likely be playing out of Full Forward rather than Centre Half Forward.

Ronnie Burns I still don't rate so if they can get 20 goals out of him they will be lucky

 

[ok.crows]

Originally posted by Macca19
...BUT...its all well and good on how your forward line will improve, but where will it decrease?? I dont think Burton will kick 52 goals this year...
I can see Stevens playing more in defence this year, so his 38 goals might well drop as well.

I wouldn't mind if Burton moved to a wing as I think that is probably his best spot. In fact I think a centreline of Stenglein, McLeod, Burton would be wicked, with two tall mobile wingers. This will only happen if the forwardline has a replacement for Burton though. So if there is say more games from Welsh and/or someone else takes a role up forward (say Basett, or Hentschell) - then & only then would Burton move from the forward line.

Its just not that simple to work it out that way.

Have to agree with you here, howver I do think there is some legitimacy in saying that the inclusion of Carey & Burns and omission of Fitzgerald, Bienke & probably Schell has got to be to Crows advantage, and not disadvantage surely?

Not to mention that in your theory you are implying that the rest of the competition will not improve and will stay the same as this year - which obviously will not happen. It is most likely that the teams around the Crows have improved as well which cancels out some of hte Crows imrpvement. Theres nothing stopping Port or Brisbane or Collingwood improving 30-40 goals as well.

While I agree that it is not impossible that Port or Brisbane can improve, I do suggest that there is not a case to make for either of those teams improvement as strong as the case for Crows - mainly because the Crows can point to a highly likely improvement in the one area they were weak in - whereas Port & Brisbane did not have such an obvious weakness last year. That is a two-edged sword - it means that Port & Brisbane were better but it also means that it will be relatively harder for those sides to identify areas ripe for improvement.

 

[nut]

From december. How things change. Even in preseason.

 

[jc67]

more here http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&threadid=62468

 

[luthor]

Originally posted by Mead
From memory, it hasn't stayed the same at any time in the last ten years... anyone want to pull me up on this?

It won't stay the same again, unless an extraordinary series of coincidences come into play. There are so many variables which decide which team finishes where- injuries, player form, even what sort of draw they get- (a middle of the road team which plays the wooden spooners twice and the best team in the league once has an effective 2 game lead over a middle of the road team who gets their fixtures the other way round).
I'm willing to put $20 down on the table that the top four will NOT consist of all four of Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and Collingwood, in any order, if anyone wants to take the bet.

Bad call

 

[luthor]

Originally posted by luthor
You're a shrewd footy follower old son.

I won't be betting against you.

Anyone who does should want a LOT better than even money

Worse call.

 

[luthor]

Originally posted by Porthos
No-one would at even odds....they've only got one chance of being right, whereas you'd have the full spread of other options.

I'll put 50c against your $20 though, if you're interested.

Good call.

 

[luthor]

Originally posted by Mead
er... you know, I think i'll pass

Great call.

I said you were pretty shrewd

 

[flying_monk3y]

Originally posted by willijn33

10 saints will not make the 8 as you cant go from bottom to top.

1st of all it has happened before.

2nd of all u say bulldogs will go from 16 - 6 but st kilda cant go from 11 - top 8

 

[flying_monk3y]

Originally posted by Generalissimo

16. Carlton Three spoons in a row is, I believe, Carlton's awful fate. You'll have to wait until 2005, I'm afraid.

are you stupid? obviously yes! carlton wont finish last and wher do u get 3 wooden spoons in a row. if u had any track of the ladder u would kno we finished 2nd last 2 bulldogs

 

[jc67]

Originally posted by flying_monk3y
are you stupid? obviously yes! carlton wont finish last and wher do u get 3 wooden spoons in a row. if u had any track of the ladder u would kno we finished 2nd last 2 bulldogs

Hey Monkey this is a thread from last year, try http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=1547463#post1547463

 

[Chris_Judd]

I was doing some reading up.... interesting to see who people thought would make the finals and not make the finals in 2003.... fair to say certain people were way off.