Nothing
Brownlow Medallist
- Jul 30, 2009
- 10,478
- 17,528
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
If it weren't for the absolutely ridiculous juice on these markets, I'd revive my thread. Stick with it, it will improve.
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Leaping Lenny's Lucky Leans
- Thread starter Lensen
- Start date
- Tagged users None
What's got you chancing GWS?
- Thread starter
- #104
- GWS competitive against Sydney & Port (for ~3 quarters)
- St Kilda lost to GC at home, I still maintain GWS are ahead of GC although that's partially offset by the Saints having some of their guns back
- GWS have the tall forwards to concern the Saints backline
Think the Saints should be favourites but GWS at that price is value IMO
- St Kilda lost to GC at home, I still maintain GWS are ahead of GC although that's partially offset by the Saints having some of their guns back
- GWS have the tall forwards to concern the Saints backline
Think the Saints should be favourites but GWS at that price is value IMO
- Thread starter
- #106
BTW, I've reduced the $$$ amount of my unit sizes significantly this round - given the growth in my bankroll over the last 18 months the unit value as a % increased significantly. But it's just too much to be betting and really does my ****ing head in so I'm stripping it back
This means that this week will probably be a winner
This means that this week will probably be a winner
BTW, I've reduced the $$$ amount of my unit sizes significantly this round - given the growth in my bankroll over the last 18 months the unit value as a % increased significantly. But it's just too much to be betting and really does my ******* head in so I'm stripping it back
This means that this week will probably be a winner
If you don't mind me asking, do you add to your bankroll from the outside often, or is this just betting growth?
I seem to recall you mentioning in the past that you bat through the mortgage offset account or somesuch , but just wondered about how this related to what to have defined as 'the bankroll' per se?
- Thread starter
- #108
It certainly was easier pre mortgage
Basically, when I first started I put money into a transaction account and used that to fund my betting activities - and withdrawals from books went there etc so it was entirely separate. One year in about 2005 maybe I put something small like $20 a week in on top but stopped doing that in favour of organic growth
Since I got the mortgage I put almost all the money that would otherwise be in the transaction account into the offset account, and draw on that as I go. I keep track of how much money in the offset is "betting" money so for all intents and purposes its still a separate betting fund
But yeah it's grown quite well but going the old 1 unit = 1% of the bank arrangement has me betting amounts that I'm not comfortable with. Even though it's "just" betting money it still obviously has a real world value so I've just reduced to something a bit more comfortable if I have one or two bad weeks
(I know that in effect it's going to make it very difficult to profit this year given I have to claw back 10+ "old" units and so basically need to make ~25 "new" units to get back square, but I'm ok with that)
It certainly was easier pre mortgage
Basically, when I first started I put money into a transaction account and used that to fund my betting activities - and withdrawals from books went there etc so it was entirely separate. One year in about 2005 maybe I put something small like $20 a week in on top but stopped doing that in favour of organic growth
Since I got the mortgage I put almost all the money that would otherwise be in the transaction account into the offset account, and draw on that as I go. I keep track of how much money in the offset is "betting" money so for all intents and purposes its still a separate betting fund
But yeah it's grown quite well but going the old 1 unit = 1% of the bank arrangement has me betting amounts that I'm not comfortable with. Even though it's "just" betting money it still obviously has a real world value so I've just reduced to something a bit more comfortable if I have one or two bad weeks
(I know that in effect it's going to make it very difficult to profit this year given I have to claw back 10+ "old" units and so basically need to make ~25 "new" units to get back square, but I'm ok with that)
Ta, I appreciate the info.
I guess I'm flying by the seat of my pants with my 1U = 5% of my bankroll at the moment, then. Hopefully I can stay lucky enough to build it up and get it closer to 1%. It is small enough in total value at the moment that I can take the lesson without losing my if/when it comes undone.
- Thread starter
- #110
yeah, that's probably long term unworkable - if you get the good end of variance upfront it will help but if you don't could wipe you out. obviously your call on the risk/reward situation there
effectively i've reduced my bankroll by 60% so it's still 1% of the "reduced" bankroll
- Thread starter
- #113
0.25u Luke Dahlhaus MGS @ $17
0.25u Jack Gunston MGS @ $15
0.25u Paul Stewart MGS @ $26
Roughies:
0.1u Trent Cotchin @ $51
0.1u Jamie Elliott @ $34
no roughie on the showdown
0.25u Jack Gunston MGS @ $15
0.25u Paul Stewart MGS @ $26
Roughies:
0.1u Trent Cotchin @ $51
0.1u Jamie Elliott @ $34
no roughie on the showdown
- Thread starter
- #116
nah, not this week. too many out to compete with the hawks IMO
- Thread starter
- #122
you'd know more about where he's going to play, but i think $17s on a bloke who's kicked 7 goals in 12 games (and no more than 2 in any of those) is a little skinny
but yeah, i'd expect 3 to win it here. sydney are 2nd and geelong equal 3rd in terms of the value 3 goals has in a most goals sense - i.e. how often 3 goals wins it in their games.
Jetta kicked 4 bags of 3+ at the SCG in their first 5 games there last year which I thought was interesting. Maybe teams worked him out a bit after that though.
