Speculation Liam Baker

[Jeremias]

Time for some house cleaning.

1) Do not drag discussions or individual posts over here from other threads or boards.

Feel free to respond to those posts wherever they were posted, if you so choose.

2) Enough with the personal attacks. It’s a long season and this one may go the distance, so if you want to remain a part of the discussion, do it respectfully.

We will use thread bans and infractions if necessary.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

Nothing is guaranteed in footy. Nothing.

Liam Baker could have a career ending head knock in his first game as an Eagle.

We could get 6 years out of him, we could 0 games out of him.

Established players are no more certain than draft picks.

Well, they are more certain, because they're a known quantity.

 

[Tonythetiger]

Well, they are more certain, because they're a known quantity.

Yeah he's talking absolute nonsense, because if you want to apply the "He could get a career ending injury first game" then it has to apply to every single player in the league, therefore it has nil affect on his value or anyone elses.

Draft picks for players are trades for potential output on both sides. The draft picks has value because of the people potential career a player has ahead but has a penalty put on it because of a lack of exposed form at senior level. A traded in player has exposed form and thus a value can be determined based on age and potential career remaining.

Baker is the kind of player you want to have around your club, he plays above his height and size, he will be rated within your club but criminally underrated by other clubs. We will get what we perceive as unders for sure and Eagles fans may feel like they are paying overs. I doubt either side walks away thinking that fair value is achieved.c

 

[tiger_tough]

 

[tigs2010]

Lmao Ralphy with the journo version of ner ner I told ya so

 

[Philhawk]

Jon Ralph uses his articles as fan fiction for his Richmond supporting group chat with his buddies.

 

[tigs2010]

Everyone knows this is my pet hate

 

[TY24]

Well, they are more certain, because they're a known quantity.

They’re lower risk, sure. But for you to say ‘Liam Baker is guaranteed player and he will give you 6 years of service’ that is just an educated guess.

Yeah, he probably will play for us for a long time. Just like whoever we hypothetically take at Pick 3 is probably going to be a jet of a player as well.

There’s certainly no such thing as a ‘guarantee’ here.

 

[eastfreo75]

Everyone knows this is my pet hate

Same. Points are totally faulty.

If you at previously pick trades, the teams trading up pay an extra 30-50% depending on the draft and team requirements.

Look at the previously pick trades

https://www.draftguru.com.au/trades/2023-picks-gold_coast-melbourne - moving up cost an extra 1000 points but pick 11 and 14 is only 200 points different

https://www.draftguru.com.au/trades/2023-picks-essendon-geelong - from 12 to 11 cost pick 31.

https://www.draftguru.com.au/trades/2019-picks-greater_western_sydney-st_kilda - moving up from 6 to 12 cost pick 18. Extra 300 points.

Moving 3 to 6 would something like this pick 3 for pick 6 and 12.

 

[Barrybran]

Lmao Ralphy with the journo version of ner ner I told ya so

'Great to see the CEO confirming they are open to all options to maximise their draft hand' is less about the first part of the sentence and more about the second part. Ralphy is just communicating what Richmond wants. First pick 6 for Rioli. Now pick 3 for Baker.

Let's start the bidding then. 3 + something for 6, 9 and Baker. You fill in the blanks.

 

[eastfreo75]

'Great to see the CEO confirming they are open to all options to maximise their draft hand' is less about the first part of the sentence and more about the second part. Ralphy is just communicating what Richmond wants. First pick 6 for Rioli. Now pick 3 for Baker.

Let's start the bidding then. 3 + something for 6, 9 and Baker. You fill in the blanks.

Too bad pick 6 isn't going to the Tigers.

 

[bzparkes]

Everyone knows this is my pet hate

Lol, Ralph is very much making shit up, as usual. Pyke said nothing of the sort.

Said pick 3 'could' be used as part of a trade to bring in mature talent, whilst maximizing our draft hand.

Never said it would be used in a direct trade involving Baker himself.

 

[Barrybran]

Too bad pick 6 isn't going to the Tigers.

I still think it would be mad for the Suns to trade that pick

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

They’re lower risk, sure. But for you to say ‘Liam Baker is guaranteed player and he will give you 6 years of service’ that is just an educated guess.

Yeah, he probably will play for us for a long time. Just like whoever we hypothetically take at Pick 3 is probably going to be a jet of a player as well.

There’s certainly no such thing as a ‘guarantee’ here.

Great strawman, well done.

My OG premise when discussing this scenario was this:

It's absolutely a different argument.

Do you want pick 25, or a bloke that will give you a guaranteed 100 games?





Sheesh.



Pick 25 is dartboard material.

Pick 25 was the pick value for Baker after a (possible) pick swap of 3 & 9 that had been floated.
If it becomes 3 & 6 it values him at pick 37.


Of course you'd take the (low) risk of pick 3 over Baker. Everyone would.

I also realise that whichever club Baker picks is in the box seat and holds most of the cards because he's OOC. Not everyone on here is an unrealistic ass.

I'll state again, for what feels like the umpteenth time, I think (most) Richmond fans will be disappointed for what we get in return for Baker. Circumstances dictate this. And I'm cool with it.

Go well Bakes, and thanks.

 

[richcogs]

Bakes is my favourite player at the club. His hardness for the contest is inspirational. He’s been a wonderful player and servant during our premiership years. Make sure he goes to the club of his choice! We want get what we feel is fair but that doesn’t matter.

For what it’s worth I think he fits West Coasts needs very well as a swing player for can cover their holes and support the teenagers.

On ya Bakes!

 

[MisterMarcus]

All this media speculation and scenarios seems to be making this trade way more complicated and silly than it needs to be.

WCE will have Pick 21-ish won't they? Baker for 21 done deal, no mess no fuss, seems like one of the easier and least controversial trades of this season. Am I missing something?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

All this media speculation and scenarios seems to be making this trade way more complicated and silly than it needs to be.

WCE will have Pick 21-ish won't they? Baker for 21 done deal, no mess no fuss, seems like one of the easier and least controversial trades of this season. Am I missing something?

That Nick Daicos is apparently a poor mans Liam Baker so Baker is worth a top 10 pick according to the Vic nedia

 

[Obeanie1]

Can't wait to see who we pick with pick 3

Heads up on our board from an ITK poster with links to the club.

If we do trade pick three it will be for a higher ranked player than Baker.

May not work out but that is the current plan.

So the only players in recent trade discussions ranked hight than Baker would be Kossie, Bolton or Warner.

I do hope this is true because splitting pick 3 just to land Baker is plain crazy.

 

[juss]

Pick 3 for Baker and 6 doesn't make sense to me,

In this draft there's not enough between 3 and 6 to add Baker in as the sweetener, I think it just cheapens Baker's value too much.

 

[My_Username]

Same. Points are totally faulty.

If you at previously pick trades, the teams trading up pay an extra 30-50% depending on the draft and team requirements.

Look at the previously pick trades

https://www.draftguru.com.au/trades/2023-picks-gold_coast-melbourne - moving up cost an extra 1000 points but pick 11 and 14 is only 200 points different

https://www.draftguru.com.au/trades/2023-picks-essendon-geelong - from 12 to 11 cost pick 31.

https://www.draftguru.com.au/trades/2019-picks-greater_western_sydney-st_kilda - moving up from 6 to 12 cost pick 18. Extra 300 points.

Moving 3 to 6 would something like this pick 3 for pick 6 and 12.

You also need to factor in likely academy/FS picks.

So 3 for 6 probably becomes something like 4 or 5 for 8

 

[Purple Suit]

'Great to see the CEO confirming they are open to all options to maximise their draft hand' is less about the first part of the sentence and more about the second part. Ralphy is just communicating what Richmond wants. First pick 6 for Rioli. Now pick 3 for Baker.

Let's start the bidding then. 3 + something for 6, 9 and Baker. You fill in the blanks.

Pick 3 plus F1 for 6, 9 & Baker

 

[Barrybran]

Pick 3 plus F1 for 6, 9 & Baker

Jon Ralph is going to love this

 

[Obeanie1]

Pick 3 for Baker and 6 doesn't make sense to me,

In this draft there's not enough between 3 and 6 to add Baker in as the sweetener, I think it just cheapens Baker's value too much.

Pick 3 and anything related to Baker makes no sense to anyone bar Vic media dopes and some Richmond supporters. Not all.

But just to compare to previous pick swaps.three drafts ago the Eagles traded pick 12 for 14 and got Ports future 2nd.

A mid to late 1st round pick swap.

So dropping 3 places from 3 to 6 should cost/ be valued more than a future 2nd shouldn't it?

 

[Obeanie1]

Pick 3 plus F1 for 6, 9 & Baker

Pick 3 and Eagles F1st for Bolton, Baker and a couple of 3rd rounders they won't use.

Now that's starting to look crazy.

Big gamble that would be from the Eagles.

 

[tiger_tough]

Pick 3 plus F1 for 6, 9 & Baker

 

[Purple Suit]

Everyone will hate it, therefore it’s on the money on value.