Prediction Lions in 2020 (no hindsight required)

[Keays2myBeamas]

Is anyone interested in having a discussion about what the list might look like, in say, 2020? Perhaps a new thread.

-We currently have 34 senior players
-I think there will be a minimum of 12 draftees in the next 3 drafts.
-I'm going to guess only Barrett and McInerney are upgraded (and any rookies we pick up this year or next can stay as rookies in 2020).
-I'll guess Hodge and Martin retire at the end of 2019, and there are no other retirements
-I'll assume for now that Trade/FA ins = trade/FA outs, although I'm sure everyone would like it to be in the black.
-Given the club seems to be giving most draftees at least 3 years, let's assume none of the 2017 draftees are delisted at the end of 2019.
-I'll assume no changes to the list size/rookie list rules.

With all that in mind: 34 + 12 (+Barret+McInerney-Hodge-Martin) = 46
So we'll need to delist 6 players at a minimum over the next 2 seasons, and 1 more for each additional draftee, and 1 more for each surplus trade in.

So the 2020 list could look something like this (+- trades/FAs), with ages as at 1 September 2020. I've highlighted who I think our 10 most important players are, and 5 players that will likely be important in 2020.

Dayne Zorko 31.5
Mitch Robinson 31.2
Dayne Beams 30.5
Daniel Rich 30.2
Allen Christensen 29.3
Ryan Bastinac 29.2
Ryan Lester 28.0
Josh Walker 27.8
Sam Mayes 26.3
Charlie Cameron 26.1
Oscar McInerney 26.1
Tom Cutler 25.5
Lewis Taylor 25.5
Dan McStay 25.2
Nick Robertson 25.2
Archie Smith 25.1
Darcy Gardiner 24.9
Jake Barrett 24.8
Harris Andrews 23.7
Rhys Mathieson 23.6
Ben Keays 23.5
Sam Skinner 23.2
Cedric Cox 23.0
Eric Hipwood 22.9 ??
Jarrod Berry 22.6 ??
Hugh McCluggage 22.5 ??
Jacob Allison 22.4
Alex Witherden 22.0 ??
Connor Ballenden 21.5
2017 Pick 1 ~21.2 ??
2017 Pick 15 ~21.2
2017 Pick 18 ~21.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2

Average Age 24.1

+- Trade/FA

+Rookie List.

So there's a base for the 2020 list. I think it's a tad disappointing. Our best players really are quite concentrated at either end, with not much high quality in the prime ages. It really highlights the dire need for Witherden + McCluggage to resign, or else some A grade trade/FA ins. Does anyone see the list looking quite different? What adjustments can be made to get the most out of it?

 

[briztoon]

Is anyone interested in having a discussion about what the list might look like, in say, 2020? Perhaps a new thread.

-We currently have 34 senior players
-I think there will be a minimum of 12 draftees in the next 3 drafts.
-I'm going to guess only Barrett and McInerney are upgraded (and any rookies we pick up this year or next can stay as rookies in 2020).
-I'll guess Hodge and Martin retire at the end of 2019, and there are no other retirements
-I'll assume for now that Trade/FA ins = trade/FA outs, although I'm sure everyone would like it to be in the black.
-Given the club seems to be giving most draftees at least 3 years, let's assume none of the 2017 draftees are delisted at the end of 2019.
-I'll assume no changes to the list size/rookie list rules.

With all that in mind: 34 + 12 (+Barret+McInerney-Hodge-Martin) = 46
So we'll need to delist 6 players at a minimum over the next 2 seasons, and 1 more for each additional draftee, and 1 more for each surplus trade in.

So the 2020 list could look something like this (+- trades/FAs), with ages as at 1 September 2020. I've highlighted who I think our 10 most important players are, and 5 players that will likely be important in 2020.

Dayne Zorko 31.5
Mitch Robinson 31.2
Dayne Beams 30.5
Daniel Rich 30.2
Allen Christensen 29.3
Ryan Bastinac 29.2
Ryan Lester 28.0
Josh Walker 27.8
Sam Mayes 26.3
Charlie Cameron 26.1
Oscar McInerney 26.1
Tom Cutler 25.5
Lewis Taylor 25.5
Dan McStay 25.2
Nick Robertson 25.2
Archie Smith 25.1
Darcy Gardiner 24.9
Jake Barrett 24.8
Harris Andrews 23.7
Rhys Mathieson 23.6
Ben Keays 23.5
Sam Skinner 23.2
Cedric Cox 23.0
Eric Hipwood 22.9 ??
Jarrod Berry 22.6 ??
Hugh McCluggage 22.5 ??
Jacob Allison 22.4
Alex Witherden 22.0 ??
Connor Ballenden 21.5
2017 Pick 1 ~21.2 ??
2017 Pick 15 ~21.2
2017 Pick 18 ~21.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2

Average Age 24.1

+- Trade/FA

+Rookie List.

So there's a base for the 2020 list. I think it's a tad disappointing. Our best players really are quite concentrated at either end, with not much high quality in the prime ages. It really highlights the dire need for Witherden + McCluggage to resign, or else some A grade trade/FA ins. Does anyone see the list looking quite different? What adjustments can be made to get the most out of it?

Are there any other decent QLD'ers playing interstate that we could entice home?

Who are the players over the next 3 years we could look to entice up north, similar to Luke Hodge, to provide similar leadership and on field coaching? We might need an extended coaching list.

Otherwise we have no option but to keep building through the draft and hope that all our draftees stay.

Our list will be close to something similar to an expansion teams list. Just not with same the numbers of high draftees.

As for your highlighted players, I sincerely hope Cedric Cox has replaced Daniel Rich by 2020.

 

[SizeMatters]

Is anyone interested in having a discussion about what the list might look like, in say, 2020? Perhaps a new thread.

-We currently have 34 senior players
-I think there will be a minimum of 12 draftees in the next 3 drafts.
-I'm going to guess only Barrett and McInerney are upgraded (and any rookies we pick up this year or next can stay as rookies in 2020).
-I'll guess Hodge and Martin retire at the end of 2019, and there are no other retirements
-I'll assume for now that Trade/FA ins = trade/FA outs, although I'm sure everyone would like it to be in the black.
-Given the club seems to be giving most draftees at least 3 years, let's assume none of the 2017 draftees are delisted at the end of 2019.
-I'll assume no changes to the list size/rookie list rules.

With all that in mind: 34 + 12 (+Barret+McInerney-Hodge-Martin) = 46
So we'll need to delist 6 players at a minimum over the next 2 seasons, and 1 more for each additional draftee, and 1 more for each surplus trade in.

So the 2020 list could look something like this (+- trades/FAs), with ages as at 1 September 2020. I've highlighted who I think our 10 most important players are, and 5 players that will likely be important in 2020.

Dayne Zorko 31.5
Mitch Robinson 31.2
Dayne Beams 30.5
Daniel Rich 30.2
Allen Christensen 29.3
Ryan Bastinac 29.2
Ryan Lester 28.0
Josh Walker 27.8
Sam Mayes 26.3
Charlie Cameron 26.1
Oscar McInerney 26.1
Tom Cutler 25.5
Lewis Taylor 25.5
Dan McStay 25.2
Nick Robertson 25.2
Archie Smith 25.1
Darcy Gardiner 24.9
Jake Barrett 24.8
Harris Andrews 23.7
Rhys Mathieson 23.6
Ben Keays 23.5
Sam Skinner 23.2
Cedric Cox 23.0
Eric Hipwood 22.9 ??
Jarrod Berry 22.6 ??
Hugh McCluggage 22.5 ??
Jacob Allison 22.4
Alex Witherden 22.0 ??
Connor Ballenden 21.5
2017 Pick 1 ~21.2 ??
2017 Pick 15 ~21.2
2017 Pick 18 ~21.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2018 Draftee ~20.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2
2019 Draftee ~19.2

Average Age 24.1

+- Trade/FA

+Rookie List.

So there's a base for the 2020 list. I think it's a tad disappointing. Our best players really are quite concentrated at either end, with not much high quality in the prime ages. It really highlights the dire need for Witherden + McCluggage to resign, or else some A grade trade/FA ins. Does anyone see the list looking quite different? What adjustments can be made to get the most out of it?

Really shows that even by 2020 we are still years off contending. KPPs usually start to perform consistently once they hit 24 years or so.

 

[cubansombrero]

I think we'll be okay - genuine improvement in 2018/2019 and plenty of cap space mean we should be in the market to trade in a few players in that middle age bracket/bring in some talented FAs. If we do that and back the club in to retain talent, then I don't see any reason why we can't be making/winning finals by 2020.

The more interesting question for me is our drafting strategy - realistically we're not going to continue to get multiple first round picks in every draft without giving something up. That means we either need to get better at identifying talent late in the draft/in our academy (since we can bundle multiple lower picks to get a talented kid) or we need to be willing to lose some of our mid-tier or slightly better players (guys like Cutler spring to mind, even though I really want him to succeed at our club).

 

[briztoon]

I think we'll be okay - genuine improvement in 2018/2019 and plenty of cap space mean we should be in the market to trade in a few players in that middle age bracket/bring in some talented FAs. If we do that and back the club in to retain talent, then I don't see any reason why we can't be making/winning finals by 2020.

The more interesting question for me is our drafting strategy - realistically we're not going to continue to get multiple first round picks in every draft without giving something up. That means we either need to get better at identifying talent late in the draft/in our academy (since we can bundle multiple lower picks to get a talented kid) or we need to be willing to lose some of our mid-tier or slightly better players (guys like Cutler spring to mind, even though I really want him to succeed at our club).

The problem is, we're not a destination club, and we're not i Melbourne. Short of talented QLD'ers wanting to come home, like Dayne Beams or Charlie Cameron, it's going to be incredibly hard for us to attract top tier talent to QLD. Having cap space is no guarantee of being able to lure quality players. Look at North Melbourne this year, they threw truckloads of money around and still couldn't attract anyone.

Also, bundling multiple lower picks to match a bid on highly rated (read first round) academy or F/S talent, really does mean we have to be able to identify late draft talent. With the rule that you can only take as many picks to the draft as you have vacant list spots, it likely means that we'll be drafting two highly rated kids and two kids at the back end of the draft.

We will be reliant on our academy to fill out the back end of our roster and rookie selections, especially if we run a short senior list for the sake of extra draft picks.

 

[jjami15]

The problem is, we're not a destination club, and we're not i Melbourne. Short of talented QLD'ers wanting to come home, like Dayne Beams or Charlie Cameron, it's going to be incredibly hard for us to attract top tier talent to QLD. Having cap space is no guarantee of being able to lure quality players. Look at North Melbourne this year, they threw truckloads of money around and still couldn't attract anyone.

Also, bundling multiple lower picks to match a bid on highly rated (read first round) academy or F/S talent, really does mean we have to be able to identify late draft talent. With the rule that you can only take as many picks to the draft as you have vacant list spots, it likely means that we'll be drafting two highly rated kids and two kids at the back end of the draft.

We will be reliant on our academy to fill out the back end of our roster and rookie selections, especially if we run a short senior list for the sake of extra draft picks.

I wouldn't use North Melbourne as a reference point as when you look at their list it isn't a selling point. However using Carlton is more to the point as their list is building however I also believe that we are doing the same as well and this is evident with the players from other teams making similar comments. The clubs focus on the draft for 3 yrs and also the acquisition of quality academy players to keep building a promising young team will be important. You are correct that we are not a destination club but I feel that if we can get to a stage where we have a strong list it will be to identify holes on our list and the acquisition of those types and most probably not the upper echelon of players but players who can play their roles.

2020 is the year I reckon that we won't be so reliant on the likes of Zorko or Beams (as they'll be 30ish) and our young KPP will start to come into their own and we should be in discussions about making finals as Saints and Melbourne were this year. Will be happy with 7/8 wins (more would be better) and another improvement in 2019.

 

[briztoon]

I wouldn't use North Melbourne as a reference point as when you look at their list it isn't a selling point. However using Carlton is more to the point as their list is building however I also believe that we are doing the same as well and this is evident with the players from other teams making similar comments. The clubs focus on the draft for 3 yrs and also the acquisition of quality academy players to keep building a promising young team will be important. You are correct that we are not a destination club but I feel that if we can get to a stage where we have a strong list it will be to identify holes on our list and the acquisition of those types and most probably not the upper echelon of players but players who can play their roles.

2020 is the year I reckon that we won't be so reliant on the likes of Zorko or Beams (as they'll be 30ish) and our young KPP will start to come into their own and we should be in discussions about making finals as Saints and Melbourne were this year. Will be happy with 7/8 wins (more would be better) and another improvement in 2019.

I'm curious how we are going to target the 2018 draft.

We don't have any player assets I'd be willing to trade for a second, first round pick.

That really only leaves trading a future 2019 pick. And more than likely, it would be trading with a team with a later first round pick in 2018, for our 2019 first round pick which likely projects to be a top 10 pick.

 

[M Malice]

I'm curious how we are going to target the 2018 draft.

We don't have any player assets I'd be willing to trade for a second, first round pick.

That really only leaves trading a future 2019 pick. And more than likely, it would be trading with a team with a later first round pick in 2018, for our 2019 first round pick which likely projects to be a top 10 pick.

The only way we would be any chance of getting a mid to high first round pick next year would be if we were willing to trade out an older high end talent to a side in their premiership window eg. Zorko. The only older player I would be willing to do this for is Stefan Martin but he'll be 32 next year so probably too old by then.

Or heaven forbid Witherden and/or McCluggage want to go "home".

 

[jjami15]

I'm curious how we are going to target the 2018 draft.

We don't have any player assets I'd be willing to trade for a second, first round pick.

That really only leaves trading a future 2019 pick. And more than likely, it would be trading with a team with a later first round pick in 2018, for our 2019 first round pick which likely projects to be a top 10 pick.

I don't see anyone trading out of the first round next year (silly W.C.) it is just too valuable IMO. In saying that I would hope that we don't trade our second rounder either as I think that there will be quality around those picks also. There are 3 FA's from Wester Bulldogs I think we would be sniffing around in Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis and also Cam Guthrie from Geelong is another that I would like for the Lions to make a play at. Not sure who is out of contract but would rather not use any picks from 2018 but have no problems with 2019 picks. Next year is the last of the '3 year draft focus' that the club has stated and hope that the club sticks to it and then refocus on another strategy after this.

 

[Elixuh]

I am interested to see how Zorko goes. Genuinely think he could play until 34 or 35.

 

[cotter101]

I am interested to see how Zorko goes. Genuinely think he could play until 34 or 35.

Agreed. I think that too. Even if you stick him in a forward pocket nearer to the end.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Is anyone interested in having a discussion about what the list might look like, in say, 2020?

Only if you rename the thread “Operation Lions in 2020.”

 

[countryVicLion]

I don't see anyone trading out of the first round next year (silly W.C.) it is just too valuable IMO. In saying that I would hope that we don't trade our second rounder either as I think that there will be quality around those picks also. There are 3 FA's from Wester Bulldogs I think we would be sniffing around in Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis and also Cam Guthrie from Geelong is another that I would like for the Lions to make a play at. Not sure who is out of contract but would rather not use any picks from 2018 but have no problems with 2019 picks. Next year is the last of the '3 year draft focus' that the club has stated and hope that the club sticks to it and then refocus on another strategy after this.

Keep away from the bulldog boys, Stringer the scape goat, Libba will now stand out more than ever as the bad influence that wasn’t highlighted as SOG, Wallis to slow, Dahlhaus just has come on as everyone expected, Guthrie won’t leave as his brother there now coming through.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jivlain]

Only if you rename the thread “Operation Lions in 2020.”

Dear god in heaven why would you want that. "Operation Collingwood Flag 2020" would be a much better thread title.

 

[Toffee Lion]

Hello to those reading in 3 years time, I hope we're half-decent now, thanks.

 

[dlanod]

Only if you rename the thread “Operation Lions in 2020.”

That's one way to ensure the club has folded in the next two years.