Mandatory Vaccinations And Medical Exemptions

[HTT]

Would only be fair then that other people who are needing hospitalisation for their personal choices such as drug taking, smoking and other unhealthy lifestyle decisions should also not get medical attention in front of another who try’s to look after themselves

Medical apartheid suggestions should never happen in this country

Is there likely to be a surge of patients requiring such services, increasing so quickly hospitals simply cannot upscale in time?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

disgrace. one rule for the rich and another rule for the rest of us.

I don't think it's about the rich, but rather about the balance between public health and the economy.

Same as why during lockdowns my brother couldn't mow someone's front nature strip whilst working in his own, with no other human within 20m of him for a 10 minute job - but construction sites remained open.

And same as why I couldn't visit my parents, but I could go to a packed Coles.

The Boxing Day test and the Aus Open are huge for the economy, so the public health aspect will be sacrificed to some degree.

I'm not surprised. And to be honest, as much of a flog as Dokic is, I don't really mind either.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

would have thought that half of a vaccinated nightclub catching covid would have been proof to most normal people that the vaccine didn't work that well in terms of actually catching covid.

Not 'normal' people. Ill-informed and in many cases uneducated people will though.

Because data doesn't work like that. Analysis doesn't work like that. And science certainly doesn't work like that.

 

[Drought Break]

Not 'normal' people. Ill-informed and in many cases uneducated people will though.

Because data doesn't work like that. Analysis doesn't work like that. And science certainly doesn't work like that.

There is very little data on Omnicron at this stage.

data such as "estimates" and "predictions" with limited data with one link are not overly reliable

Would have thought that a few recent local outbreaks that have actually happened may be worth looking at but obviously not, lets go with the data, science and analysis.

look at some of the data that the Doherty institute has used for their "predictions" on cases including yesterdays classic of up to 200,000 cases a day. I guess if you pick a ridiculously high number as a worse case scenario you cant go wrong.



Just a query, where are they finding these people for their limited recent data on Omnicron?. Are they grabbing 500 unvaccinated people, put them in room A with a covid case for a few hours and then compare room B with 500 vaccinated people then crunch numbers? The covid case put in each room would have to be the same person or at least someone with the equal level of transmission. Hey Room A has 330 cases now as opposed to room B with 250. Amazing so many unvaccinated people are lining up for these studies.

 

[theyellowsash]

There is very little data on Omnicron at this stage.

data such as "estimates" and "predictions" with limited data with one link are not overly reliable

Would have thought that a few recent local outbreaks that have actually happened may be worth looking at but obviously not, lets go with the data, science and analysis.

look at some of the data that the Doherty institute has used for their "predictions" on cases including yesterdays classic of up to 200,000 cases a day. I guess if you pick a ridiculously high number as a worse case scenario you cant go wrong.



Just a query, where are they finding these people for their limited recent data on Omnicron?. Are they grabbing 500 unvaccinated people, put them in room A with a covid case for a few hours and then compare room B with 500 vaccinated people then crunch numbers? The covid case put in each room would have to be the same person or at least someone with the equal level of transmission. Hey Room A has 330 cases now as opposed to room B with 250. Amazing so many unvaccinated people are lining up for these studies.

You do realise there are countries outside of Australia, right?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

There is very little data on Omnicron at this stage.

data such as "estimates" and "predictions" with limited data with one link are not overly reliable

Would have thought that a few recent local outbreaks that have actually happened may be worth looking at but obviously not, lets go with the data, science and analysis.

Recent outbreaks are worth looking at. Absolutely.
From them, a hypothesis can be formed - but nothing beyond that. Then researchers and scientists will go about actually studying this stuff.

You don't start with one, or even a couple of examples in the press and make a conclusion FFS.

I mean, with all due respect, that's just ****ing stupid.

look at some of the data that the Doherty institute has used for their "predictions" on cases including yesterdays classic of up to 200,000 cases a day. I guess if you pick a ridiculously high number as a worse case scenario you cant go wrong.

You should do some reading on modelling. I don't think you understand it. Some high level basic stuff here for you:

Scary numbers and worst-case scenarios: Why modelling is not a forecast

COVID-19 modelling can make for grim reading, but leading epidemiologists say models aren’t meant to be precise predictions.

www.theage.com.au

Just a query, where are they finding these people for their limited recent data on Omnicron?. Are they grabbing 500 unvaccinated people, put them in room A with a covid case for a few hours and then compare room B with 500 vaccinated people then crunch numbers? The covid case put in each room would have to be the same person or at least someone with the equal level of transmission. Hey Room A has 330 cases now as opposed to room B with 250. Amazing so many unvaccinated people are lining up for these studies.

All the details of studies and conditions are explicitly listed in the published papers. And what you've mentioned is actually the type of stuff that peer reviewers look for, and people will consider when reading papers.

These conditions are what separate good studies and papers, from shit ones.

 

[Drought Break]

You do realise there are countries outside of Australia, right?

would it be best to do studies, data analysis in our own country with our climate, demographic, health of the population etc to see how we handle the situation thats applicable to us?

Crazy ideas indeed

 

[HirdsTheWord]

so whats your view that close to half of the vaccinated people in that nightclub caught covid?

You said to provide a source or its bullshit, which I did. BTW that outbreak at the Argyle nightclub spread to many of the pubs and clubs in those few days. We now have close to 6000 cases in the area.

my ****ing god. why do people keep saying this crap?

Getting the vaccine does not stop you getting COVID. It was never designed nor marketed to stop you getting COVID.

The point of the vaccine is that if you do get COVID you are far less likely to require hospitalization and or die from it.

 

[Drought Break]

Recent outbreaks are worth looking at. Absolutely.
From them, a hypothesis can be formed - but nothing beyond that. Then researchers and scientists will go about actually studying this stuff.

You don't start with one, or even a couple of examples in the press and make a conclusion FFS.

I mean, with all due respect, that's just ******* stupid.


Also be stupid to go on just one report that the vaccine "could" prevent catching Omnicron by 30 to 40%.

You should do some reading on modelling. I don't think you understand it. Some high level basic stuff here for you:

Scary numbers and worst-case scenarios: Why modelling is not a forecast

COVID-19 modelling can make for grim reading, but leading epidemiologists say models aren’t meant to be precise predictions.

www.theage.com.au

All the details of studies and conditions are explicitly listed in the published papers. And what you've mentioned is actually the type of stuff that peer reviewers look for, and people will consider when reading papers.

These conditions are what separate good studies and papers, from sh*t ones.

ok, can i have a look at the published papers on the recent Omnicron report that stated that the vaccine is "estimated" to be 30 to 40% more effective in prevention of catching Omnicron if vaccinated? Has it been peer reviewed in these early days?

 

[Drought Break]

my ******* god. why do people keep saying this crap?

Getting the vaccine does not stop you getting COVID. It was never designed nor marketed to stop you getting COVID.

The point of the vaccine is that if you do get COVID you are far less likely to require hospitalization and or die from it.

considering myself and Sr36 were having a discussion on the chances on CATCHING Omnicron whether vaccinated or not I dont see where your coming from

There was no mention of how sick you will get, hospitalization, chances of dying etc.

Go back and read the posts again

 

[HirdsTheWord]

considering myself and Sr36 were having a discussion on the chances on CATCHING Omnicron whether vaccinated or not I dont see where your coming from

There was no mention of how sick you will get, hospitalization, chances of dying etc.

Go back and read the posts again

why are you even discussing it in the first place? it is a dumb, unhelpful discussion.

the vaccine does not stop you contracting COVID it never did and never will. its purpose is to relive pressure on the health system by minimizing your chance of needing to be hospitalized or worse, dying from COVID.

This is the entire point why the continuation of counting daily cases is mind boggling stupid. We should be focusing on Hospitalization and deaths ONLY, and more importantly the split of vaccinated vs non vaxxed of which currently are the far majority.

 

[theyellowsash]

would it be best to do studies, data analysis in our own country with our climate, demographic, health of the population etc to see how we handle the situation thats applicable to us?

Crazy ideas indeed

yes, lets arbitrarily ignore studies that can incorporate potentially hundreds of thousands of people. Because australia. I mean its not like other places have weather, right?

I suppose you dont take any other medicine not 100% created and tested in Australia?

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

ok, can i have a look at the published papers on the recent Omnicron report that stated that the vaccine is "estimated" to be 30 to 40% more effective in prevention of catching Omnicron if vaccinated? Has it been peer reviewed in these early days?

Why are you asking me?

Besides, I'd suggest those numbers are more data driven, as opposed to a study as such.

 

[sr36]

The protection against Omicron infection that vaccines offer is really unknown. Some are suggesting 0-20%, others 30-40%, lab testing, which only looks at antibodies, close to zero.

What we do know though is that in highly vaccinated places, this thing is going to double it's new case numbers every couple of days and continue to do so until it starts hitting greater levels of immunity or social patterns change to reduce social contact (which isn't likely during the festive season), because it starts running out of people who it can infect. Although in the data, it may appear to slow sooner than it really does, because testing won't keep up and people will stop lining up. It's going to rip through really quickly regardless of vaccine status. And whether or not you allow unvaxed with a slightly higher likelihood of carrying it into a crowd doesn't really matter, when multiple others in the crowd will be already carrying it.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

The protection against Omicron infection that vaccines offer is really unknown. Some are suggesting 0-20%, others 30-40%, lab testing, which only looks at antibodies, close to zero.

What we do know though is that in highly vaccinated places, this thing is going to double it's new case numbers every couple of days and continue to do so until it starts hitting greater levels of immunity or social patterns change to reduce social contact (which isn't likely during the festive season), because it starts running out of people who it can infect. Although in the data, it may appear to slow sooner than it really does, because testing won't keep up and people will stop lining up. It's going to rip through really quickly regardless of vaccine status. And whether or not you allow unvaxed with a slightly higher likelihood of carrying it into a crowd doesn't really matter, when multiple others in the crowd will be already carrying it.

I think it does matter.

Getting it isn't necessarily the issue. It's everyone getting it at once that is the problem, and precisely what the preventative measures are all about. Well, that and not getting seriously ill when you do get it.

Reducing the transmission by even 20% hugely significant in managing the spread.


Having said that, some studies are showing that boosters provide strong protection from transmission. The below mentioned haven't been peer reviewed, but I also read another one where they found that people that had had COVID previously and been vaccinated, had very strong resistance to transmission. They believe that the booster mimics that scenario (ie. having already had COVID).



The study was conducted by researchers at Denmark's top infectious disease authority, Statens Serum Institut (SSI). It analysed data from three million Danes gathered between Nov. 20 and Dec. 12.


Among those who recently had their second vaccine dose, effectiveness against Omicron was measured at 55.2% for Pfizer-BioNTech and 36.7% for Moderna, compared to unvaccinated people.

But that protection quickly waned over the course of five months, the researchers said.


"We see that the protection is lower and decreases faster against Omicron than against the Delta variant after a primary vaccination course," study author Palle Valentiner-Branth said.

However, a third dose of Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine restored protection to 54.6% in people aged 60 or more who had been inoculated 14 to 44 days earlier, compared to those with only two doses.


The study confirms the findings of a recent British study, which also showed a rapid decline in protection against Omicron over time and an increase following a booster with Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine.

 

[sr36]

I think it does matter.

Getting it isn't necessarily the issue. It's everyone getting it at once that is the problem, and precisely what the preventative measures are all about. Well, that and not getting seriously ill when you do get it.

Reducing the transmission by even 20% hugely significant in managing the spread.


Having said that, some studies are showing that boosters provide strong protection from transmission. The below mentioned haven't been peer reviewed, but I also read another one where they found that people that had had COVID previously and been vaccinated, had very strong resistance to transmission. They believe that the booster mimics that scenario (ie. having already had COVID).



The study was conducted by researchers at Denmark's top infectious disease authority, Statens Serum Institut (SSI). It analysed data from three million Danes gathered between Nov. 20 and Dec. 12.


Among those who recently had their second vaccine dose, effectiveness against Omicron was measured at 55.2% for Pfizer-BioNTech and 36.7% for Moderna, compared to unvaccinated people.

But that protection quickly waned over the course of five months, the researchers said.


"We see that the protection is lower and decreases faster against Omicron than against the Delta variant after a primary vaccination course," study author Palle Valentiner-Branth said.

However, a third dose of Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine restored protection to 54.6% in people aged 60 or more who had been inoculated 14 to 44 days earlier, compared to those with only two doses.


The study confirms the findings of a recent British study, which also showed a rapid decline in protection against Omicron over time and an increase following a booster with Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine.

It might flatten the curve in a miniscule manner. But this thing is going to sweep through so quickly that third shot protection needs to already be in people's arms and the vaccine rate will slow during the holiday period as it does every weekend - and even more so with hubs closing down for Christmas and the never ending supply chain bungles. We're letting it rip with our fingers crossed that it's not as deadly, which does appear to be the case globally. The good news is that if it is milder - it'll wipe out Delta.

 

[Malifice]

The protection against Omicron infection that vaccines offer is really unknown. Some are suggesting 0-20%, others 30-40%, lab testing, which only looks at antibodies, close to zero... whether or not you allow unvaxed with a slightly higher likelihood of carrying it into a crowd doesn't really matter..

Well it does matter. Even a 10 percent reduction in rates of transmission is huge when you consider how quickly this thing snowballs. If 1 in 10 peope that would have otherwise gotten it, dont get it, then they cant pass it on to others.

A more infectious (check) but less deadly (probable) variant is actually worse for our hospitals reaching capacity. As callous as it sounds, dead patients don't take up hospital beds or doctors time.

We're lucky in that this thing will be hitting us in Summer when we're outdoors more. That should slow it down as well.

 

[sr36]

Well it does matter. Even a 10 percent reduction in rates of transmission is huge when you consider how quickly this thing snowballs. If 1 in 10 peope that would have otherwise gotten it, dont get it, then they cant pass it on to others.

A more infectious (check) but less deadly (probable) variant is actually worse for our hospitals reaching capacity. As callous as it sounds, dead patients don't take up hospital beds or doctors time.

We're lucky in that this thing will be hitting us in Summer when we're outdoors more. That should slow it down as well.

It would matter in an infinite population, where you will be stopping people getting exposed to Omicron. But when most are going to get exposure to the virus soon anyway, the benefit is significantly diminished.

Australia is going with the early 2020 Boris Johnson, let it rip until there's herd immunity strategy. Hopefully the combination of vaccine and a hopefully milder strain means that the strategy works.

The unvaxed are going to disproportionately contribute to maxing out hospitals, but the reduced spread argument is no longer particularly strong.

I'd be adding a medicare levy surcharge.

 

[Malifice]

It would matter in an infinite population, where you will be stopping people getting exposed to Omicron. But when most are going to get exposure to the virus soon anyway, the benefit is significantly diminished.

The benefit is slowing the spread to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed and everyone gets the best possible treatment they can.

 

[sr36]

The benefit is slowing the spread to ensure hospitals are not overwhelmed and everyone gets the best possible treatment they can.

I'm suggesting that it's a tokenistic move at this stage. The way I see it everyone who goes to vax only events are likely to get exposed anyway, so the vax only part becomes irrelevant in terms of spread - except for the unvaxed. Thus I see no real incentive for somewhere like NSW to re-tighten that aspect of their response.

 

[kingswood71]

The unvaxed are going to disproportionately contribute to maxing out hospitals, but the reduced spread argument is no longer particularly strong.

If you factor in booster doses, then it does make a difference in regards how many actual cases you will have. Boosters seem to increase the effectiveness against infection back up to the 80%'s. Of course, we dont know how long this level of protection lasts for.

 

[sr36]

If you factor in booster doses, then it does make a difference in regards how many actual cases you will have. Boosters seem to increase the effectiveness against infection back up to the 80%'s. Of course, we dont know how long this level of protection lasts for.

Yes, but this Omicron wave is looking like being really steep and probably quite short due to its steepness. Over the holiday period, with many hubs closed and people less likely to get vaccinated - as we've seen every weekend, are enough going to get boosters in time to make a difference - other than to themselves? It's likely to play out before 3rd dose rates become significant. I personally think we should be back to early stages of vaccine program and just pushing through as many high risk individuals as quickly as possible.

 

[kingswood71]

Yes, but this Omicron wave is looking like being really steep and probably quite short due to its steepness. Over the holiday period, with many hubs closed and people less likely to get vaccinated - as we've seen every weekend, are enough going to get boosters in time to make a difference - other than to themselves? It's likely to play out before 3rd dose rates become significant. I personally think we should be back to early stages of vaccine program and just pushing through as many high risk individuals as quickly as possible.

I suspect Australia's omicron wave will be prolonged. We dont have the added luxury of many past infections. I think the wave will be high and stay high for months
I agree, get boosters into the high risk groups asap.

 

[deck]

Well it does matter. Even a 10 percent reduction in rates of transmission is huge when you consider how quickly this thing snowballs. If 1 in 10 peope that would have otherwise gotten it, dont get it, then they cant pass it on to others.

A more infectious (check) but less deadly (probable) variant is actually worse for our hospitals reaching capacity. As callous as it sounds, dead patients don't take up hospital beds or doctors time.

We're lucky in that this thing will be hitting us in Summer when we're outdoors more. That should slow it down as well.

Yeah they do. They are are usually in hospital on a ventilator for days and days before they die.

 

[Malifice]

I'm suggesting that it's a tokenistic move at this stage.

I disagree. We're at the early stage, with still a lot not know about the new variant. That's a good enough reason to keep the mandates in place for now (as an added benefit they also push people into getting vaccinated).

If a month or so goes past, and hospitalizations remain low, and infections stabilize, we can back them off.