Mandatory Vaccinations And Medical Exemptions

[kingswood71]

i agree it will likely become endemic and we will probably all catch it sometime (like chicken pox), i'm just concerned at the pace at which it spreads. we can look to the uk for an example of what will happen if it really takes hold. even with a lower hospitalisation rate, i doubt our hospital systems could handle tens of thousands of new cases a day, which NSW will reach pretty quickly on current trajectory. i would think the current wave is too new to see the flow on into the hospitals just yet.

"Though the next few weeks will provide a better idea of how cases match with increased hospitalizations, so far the data looks okay"
The next few weeks will be interesting.......

 

[kingswood71]

The hospitalisation numbers in NSW are worryingly skyrocketing over the past week...

The next couple of weeks will give better indicators.
I wouldnt call NSW hospitalization numbers skyrocketing though....Theres 382 in hospital, 53 in ICU. This looks favourable to Delta from Sept to Oct when there were 400-1200 in hospital every day. Increased vaccine rates would have helped this immensely.
I do support boosters and I do support some mask mandates. There needs to be some level of PH action to spread case numbers out, rather than a big mob all at once...
of course WA may end up with a delayed Delta outbreak first, before we even consider omicron

 

[kingswood71]

of course WA may end up with a delayed Delta outbreak first, before we even consider omicron

This looks increasingly likely with 5 new cases. The list of exposure sites will be large. Fully expect more cases over the next few days.

 

[sr36]

The confusion about the relative immunities from the vaccine or from natural infection, which I expressed a couple of posts ago, is (I suspect) partly due to different conceptions of "strength of immunity" - ie which is better at preventing reinfection, which is better at preventing serious illness, which lasts longer.

The two biggest studies came up with different findings regarding natural immunity and the vaccine. An Israeli one found natural immunity more effective, an American one found the vaccines more effective. So noone knows.

 

[bing181]

Yes I dont disagree. However, if it becomes endemic (which it likely will), people will catch it more than once like other Cov's, however it will cause a lot less disease

I'd be very careful about the "lot less disease" part. Too early to tell, and there are enough reports out there that it's only marginally less harmful than Delta to raise real concern.

The "Omicron is mild" discourse suits governments and individuals who are opposed to restrictions of any sort. (e.g., masking, health pass etc.), so it's being pushed from those quarters.

Be afraid.

 

[bing181]

I am generally quite confused about whether the immune protection (to infection and/or serious illness) is stronger from past infections or from vaccines. One minute you'll read an piece confidently stating one as fact, and the next an article stating the other, just as definitively, as fact. (Everything I read is mainstream media - I don't have access to scientific papers.)

Overall, immunity is both more effective and more predictable/controlled from vaccines. Not to mention, with Covid infection you run the risk of serious health issues from Covid itself, regardless of the variant. "It's not as bad as Delta" is a pretty low bar.

 

[bing181]

The two biggest studies came up with different findings regarding natural immunity and the vaccine. An Israeli one found natural immunity more effective, an American one found the vaccines more effective. So noone knows.

Yes we know, and there are more than 2 studies.

Also, in regards to Covid, all immunity is "natural" immunity - it's your body's immune system doing the work, no matter how it learnt to do so (vaccination or prior infection).

 

[kingswood71]

I'd be very careful about the "lot less disease" part. Too early to tell, and there are enough reports out there that it's only marginally less harmful than Delta to raise real concern.

The "Omicron is mild" discourse suits governments and individuals who are opposed to restrictions of any sort. (e.g., masking, health pass etc.), so it's being pushed from those quarters.

Be afraid.

As I also wrote: "Though the next few weeks will provide a better idea of how cases match with increased hospitalizations, so far the data looks okay..".......
And so far, the data does look okay....Will be interested to see if what the UK is finding continues as cases rise.
The NSW data will also be interesting as they have high vaccination rates. You'd expect that case numbers would rise but outcomes would be better.
As someone who is invested in keeping my patients alive, i have been afraid for 2 years ....

 

[Roby]

would it be best to do studies, data analysis in our own country with our climate, demographic, health of the population etc to see how we handle the situation thats applicable to us?

Crazy ideas indeed

 

[Roby]

We still really don't know the severity of Omicron.

The recent epidemiological studies that have come out have been wildly different in their analysis and conclusions. They are all suffering from background noise that is conflated with current immunity.

This talk about Omicron being more mild is just wishful thinking. The talk about it being much more mild is fantasy at best.

Look at it a different way.

There's been a thousands of variants of Covid, a lot have not even been detected. B.1.1.529 was detected and the reason you heard it about it was becsuse it sent people to hospital and killed them. It's not just that there was a lot of infections, it's that those infections led do disease and death. Just think about that for a second.

I know people are tired as we now are about to clock officially two years of knowing about Covid (for me it's been 20 years and I'm very ****ing tired) but you know what? The virus doesn't care you're tired, or when you took your vaccine, it'll just infect you and say thank you very much for your hospitality.

Until it literally becomes extinct, non-lethal or much, much, less virulent you'll just have to keep wearing a mask if you want to severely reduce the chances of getting sick or dying, or killing someone. You'll have to keep getting vaccinated.

Of course you don't have to wear a mask or vaccinate. Just like anyone can drive a car recklessly if they so choose to

 

[Roby]

By the way I had my Moderna shot on Tuesday after having both my Pfizer shots earlier this year.

No symptoms from Pfizer other than a sightly sore arm for a day. I had a very sore arm for two days from Moderna, and I was very lethargic after the shot that I took three days off work and just laid in bed. Only started feeling better today. I'll guess I'll enjoy this while it lasts as I'm due to have a heart attack any time soon, thanks Moderna!

Anyway have a good christmas (but only if you aren't anti-vaxx). Just kidding, merry xmas to you too you nice clever people.

 

[sr36]

Yes we know, and there are more than 2 studies.

Also, in regards to Covid, all immunity is "natural" immunity - it's your body's immune system doing the work, no matter how it learnt to do so (vaccination or prior infection).

The first sentence doesn't sit particularly comfortably with the paragraphs that follow.

 

[theyellowsash]

Yes I dont disagree. However, if it becomes endemic (which it likely will), people will catch it more than once like other Cov's, however it will cause a lot less disease, except in people without multiple exposures. Hcov-229E would be an example, where the people who get the most sick are under 5, simply because they havent had multiple exposures.
Case numbers largely become irrelevant if it has a low case fatality rate.
get boosters, see what happens i guess. this is especially the case for people at higher risk.
Looking at NSW hospital data, there are 382 people in hospital with covid. Back in Sept there were 1000+ but from less cases.
Though the next few weeks will provide a better idea of how cases match with increased hospitalizations, so far the data looks okay.....

looking at the stats, nsw hospitalisations and people on ventilation have almost exactly doubled in the past week. given their cases doubled overnight, and there is a lag in the case to hospitalisation numbers, id assume we will see it double again and at that point we're at peak delta numbers where the system was cloes to being essentially full.

i get the impression you work on the front lines, or at least in a position where you get good info. id be keen to know if youve noticed the increase and how you think the health system there is coping and will cope if the numbers double again.

 

[kingswood71]

looking at the stats, nsw hospitalisations and people on ventilation have almost exactly doubled in the past week. given their cases doubled overnight, and there is a lag in the case to hospitalisation numbers, id assume we will see it double again and at that point we're at peak delta numbers where the system was cloes to being essentially full.

i get the impression you work on the front lines, or at least in a position where you get good info. id be keen to know if youve noticed the increase and how you think the health system there is coping and will cope if the numbers double again.

I get decent info Not front line hospital though.
Yeah the numbers arent great in terms of increase, From Dec 1 to now, NSW ICU has increased from 25 to 61, but I suspect the cases to icu rate would be lower though.
Its a fine line between cases and being overwhelmed....

 

[fixxxer]

 

[HTT]

Would be interested to see how this graph would look for the multitude of other issues COVID causes to the body.

But good thing there’s two approved vaccines outside of Moderna you can choose between if you want anyway.

 

[theyellowsash]

 

[theyellowsash]

I get decent info Not front line hospital though.
Yeah the numbers arent great in terms of increase, From Dec 1 to now, NSW ICU has increased from 25 to 61, but I suspect the cases to icu rate would be lower though.
Its a fine line between cases and being overwhelmed....

last time there was 619 in hospital there was 71 in icu, so its about 1/3rd. thats the good news i suppose. the bad news is that at that time there was only 300 new cases in a single day, and the single day record to that point was just over 1600.

i still think we're being a bit blase around omicron. no use the virus being only 1/3rd as deadly if its also infecting 10 times more.

 

[Collingwood 4 eternity]

 

[kingswood71]

last time there was 619 in hospital there was 71 in icu, so its about 1/3rd. thats the good news i suppose. the bad news is that at that time there was only 300 new cases in a single day, and the single day record to that point was just over 1600.

i still think we're being a bit blase around omicron. no use the virus being only 1/3rd as deadly if its also infecting 10 times more.

Yes I agree with that. Its a fine line....Of course more cases will see more hospital admissions even if a lower case to admission ratio. We need sensible public health measures also, mainly to spread cases out rather than have legions at one time.

 

[theyellowsash]

 

[theyellowsash]

Yes I agree with that. Its a fine line....Of course more cases will see more hospital admissions even if a lower case to admission ratio. We need sensible public health measures also, mainly to spread cases out rather than have legions at one time.

Would be good if we didn't have the feds undermining the doctors and states

 

[mcnulty]

Yes I agree with that. Its a fine line....Of course more cases will see more hospital admissions even if a lower case to admission ratio. We need sensible public health measures also, mainly to spread cases out rather than have legions at one time.

School holidays, summer, people away from work should all help. Eating and drinking outside. I think we’re mainly at the stage where we need to put in back onto people to try and do the right thing, and hope the natural advantages of summer plus high vaccination rates see us through.

Mind you, this clearly hasn’t worked up until now anywhere around the world but I don’t think we have much choice now- people simply aren’t going to cop severe, prolonged restrictions, and we are heading into election seasons.

Modest distancing and testing requirements, relatively open borders (everywhere is pretty much as infected as everywhere else right now), and fingers crossed. Oh and boost, boost, boost.

 

[theyellowsash]

School holidays, summer, people away from work should all help. Eating and drinking outside. I think we’re mainly at the stage where we need to put in back onto people to try and do the right thing, and hope the natural advantages of summer plus high vaccination rates see us through.

Mind you, this clearly hasn’t worked up until now anywhere around the world but I don’t think we have much choice now- people simply aren’t going to cop severe, prolonged restrictions, and we are heading into election seasons.

Modest distancing and testing requirements, relatively open borders (everywhere is pretty much as infected as everywhere else right now), and fingers crossed. Oh and boost, boost, boost.

thats pretty much where we are at now, we're pretty much doing the bare bare minimum. i think we might need to go a tad further and implement some density limits again to slow it down a bit. we already have density limits for less likely (fire) or deadly (toilets) things, so density limits to control the spread of disease is consistent and logical.

 

[sr36]

School holidays, summer, people away from work should all help. Eating and drinking outside.

Weighed against the festive season and heaps of high risk occasions. It's going to continue to flourish.