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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
March - Daily Punt
- Thread starter Drakescoffeecake
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- Oct 16, 2008
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**** me, Brad Rawiller's ride on Philippi looks even worse on replay.
Rooster Cogburn
Premiership Player
- Dec 16, 2010
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Worst ride of the day, by far. Brad must be feeling comfortable again...
- Oct 16, 2008
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Oh, you like to race handy do you, i'll pull you to the back of the field then. Did nothing while they cantered out in front, staying on the fence as if he was coaxing a sprinter to get the distance, thinking the suck run would open up in a full field.
Very similar to his slaughter of PDL before the Bendigo Cup win.
(I'm definitely talking through my pocket.)
ThePeanutGallery
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- Sep 26, 2012
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Two meetings in a row now a late scratching has affected the races.
ThePeanutGallery
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Legend Express was disadvantaged yesterday with the late scratching taking away a big portion of pace in his race.Yeah, I followed you on Fat Choi, which got scratched. Then for some reason I left Jolly Victor alone...
iluvparis
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Swap the runs with it and Rebel Dane and Rebel Dane wins by at least half a length I reckon - sadly that is racing
Pool now at $16.3k according to my TAB app, WTF could have happened here???
Do they outlay these large bets, cancel half an hour before the race which allows them to manipulate pools, for reasons why I don't know?
Definitely saw the $60k in there earlier.
Very strange
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
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So did it work out for you Jan? If you weren't trying to lay it at a smaller price on an exchange then i have my doubts
- Thread starter
- #41
Gawler
R5 ASSASSINATION win
R6 DAMAGES each way
R7 KELLERMAN each way
R8 SUPER SILKS win
Newcastle race 5, SANDRIO each way @ $32/$8
R5 ASSASSINATION win
R6 DAMAGES each way
R7 KELLERMAN each way
R8 SUPER SILKS win
Newcastle race 5, SANDRIO each way @ $32/$8
ThePeanutGallery
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Happy Valley
Race 4 Young Talent
Race 6 Lucky Omens
Race 7 You Know I Win
Race 8 Rainbow Fighter
Race 4 Young Talent
Race 6 Lucky Omens
Race 7 You Know I Win
Race 8 Rainbow Fighter
article about that $60k bet for those interested:
http://www.news.com.au/sport/superr...e-bet-at-sandown/story-fndpqu3p-1226591940588
http://www.news.com.au/sport/superr...e-bet-at-sandown/story-fndpqu3p-1226591940588
Very interesting.
Surprised chap was allowed to cancel the bet.
Flemington Super Saturday - note Super Cool has been sensationally backed to win Australian Cup.
Was $10 on weekend. Was into $7 Monday and now is $4.60 second favoruite (G Moon favourite).
big go.
A few on the day look near on good things.
Race 5 Flemington – Norzita @ $1.80 (55%) – Looks the good thing of the day, unfortunately the $2.40 that went up Wednesday lasted no more than half an hour.
Race 7 W-Farm – Bennetta @ $2.40 (41%) – Up there with Norzita as the best filly in Australia, looking to make it 4 on the trot and very hard to beat.
I was also very keen on Chase The Rainbow who came up @ $7s in Race 9 but has been scratched, Fawkner now looks hard to beat.
The Australian Cup looks extremely open, I think up to 6 can win and it could come down to how the track plays, likely to be rock hard at that stage of the day which should suit those in front, if its playing that way then Glass Harmonium will be hard to catch but I will likely be sitting out of this one.
1:55 pm – Race 4 Flemington – Puissance De Lune @ $4.8 (20%) (Centrebet) – Went from a back marker that savaged the line at lower levels to the current Melbourne Cup favourite after 2 devastating wins at the end of the Spring. Yes they were at staying distances and yes this is first up at a mile but there has been a precedent set with both Green Moon (won this race first up last year coming off the Caulfield Cup) and Manighar (known as a dour stayer) winning first up over the mile in their Autumn campaigns last year, both in dominant fashion, neither of those horse had shown anywhere near the brilliance of Pussiance in their previous campaigns. The figures and sectionals he was producing at the end of his staying races were exceptional putting him into the elite category of horses in Australia, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he blows them away on Saturday.
NOTE: Has to be question marks at this distance but I’m expecting his brilliance to get him thru, time and time again you see class horses winning first up at unsuitable distances against inferior horses. He doesn’t have to beat much, Callanish not going well enough, Wall Street hasn’t won for 3 years and Dany The Fox is horribly in at the weigths.
SPEED MAP: Drawn the inside but only a small field, there are 3 horses likely to go forward and set the speed, at worst I think it will be an even tempo which will have Puissance stalking them and ready to pounce, if they set a strong speed he can sit back and run over them.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $3.0 + (33%) – Went up $6 and has been backed already.
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS: If anything is to beat him I think it is Wall Street but I will be going 1 out.
3:15 pm – Race 6 Flemington – Moment Of Change @ $3.0 (33%) (Bet365) – Before his last run in the Lightning Stakes I stated that he was my early selection for the Newmarket Hcp and the only thing that has changed since then is the price available, could have got $12+ in futures markets before his outstanding 2nd to Black Caviar in the Lightning. Deserved favourite for the race, showed his class last campaign winning the Group 1 Rupert Clarke producing outstanding figures, comfortably beat a subsequent Group 1 winner in that race. His effort in the Lightning was as good of a lead up run for this race as there has been in recent years, his performance rated 2.7 lengths superior to that of Hay Lists lead up run before winning this race last year with 58kg. Looks extremely hard to beat.
NOTE: I believe there are only 3 winning chances in the race and he is clearly on top, wish I had taken my own advice and taken the big odds a few weeks back.
SPEED MAP: Drawn the middle which is perfect, not huge speed engaged but not really an issue either way as he has a high cruising speed and will be in the perfect spot in the run.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $2.80 + (35%) – I think we might get $3.20 + on the day so wait, certainly won’t start shorter than the current quote.
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS: I think the only horse that could possibly beat him is Better Than Ready with the 50.5kgs.
3:35 pm – Race 5 W-Farm – Riva De Lago @ $4.40 (22%) (TAB) – I like him here as I think he has 2 distinct advantages on the field he faces, he is racing in career best form and every other horse in the race is first up, some of which are also unsuited at the distance. The form out of the races behind him is good and he has been winning by big spaces, seems him extremely well placed and if he runs up to his last 2 starts then he should prove hard to beat.
NOTE: Has been known to be a talented money muncher in the past but seems to have put it together since moving to the Waller stable, form is hard to fault.
SPEED MAP: My one concern, doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace, will need to be ridden more forward than usual but given he will not have to be used up to do so he will still have his sprint.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $3.80 (26%)
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS: Even behind him.
4:40 pm – Race 8 Flemington – Spirit Song @ $6.01 (16%) (Betfair) – She is the best mare in the race who looks much better suited here than when first up. Her first up effort was very good, she had the big weight, got back on a slow tempo and hit the line strongly under no riding whatsoever, continually running up the back end of horses she probably wins if she sees daylight. Her 2nd to Solzhenitsyn in the Group 1 Toorak in the Spring wins this race easily, her form over 1600M and on Good tracks is outstanding, no good thing but looks well placed, her class will take her a long way here.
NOTE: Mares races are typically even but she is the class horse (her peak figure from the Toorak is 5 lengths superior to any horse in the race), she never runs a bad race and sure to be in the finish.
SPEED MAP: Not a great deal of speed in the race but I expect Craig Willams to take a forward of midfield position and produce her in the straight.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $5.0 + (20%)
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS:
BEST BET: Race 4 Flemington - Puissance De Lune
Good Luck
Race 5 Flemington – Norzita @ $1.80 (55%) – Looks the good thing of the day, unfortunately the $2.40 that went up Wednesday lasted no more than half an hour.
Race 7 W-Farm – Bennetta @ $2.40 (41%) – Up there with Norzita as the best filly in Australia, looking to make it 4 on the trot and very hard to beat.
I was also very keen on Chase The Rainbow who came up @ $7s in Race 9 but has been scratched, Fawkner now looks hard to beat.
The Australian Cup looks extremely open, I think up to 6 can win and it could come down to how the track plays, likely to be rock hard at that stage of the day which should suit those in front, if its playing that way then Glass Harmonium will be hard to catch but I will likely be sitting out of this one.
1:55 pm – Race 4 Flemington – Puissance De Lune @ $4.8 (20%) (Centrebet) – Went from a back marker that savaged the line at lower levels to the current Melbourne Cup favourite after 2 devastating wins at the end of the Spring. Yes they were at staying distances and yes this is first up at a mile but there has been a precedent set with both Green Moon (won this race first up last year coming off the Caulfield Cup) and Manighar (known as a dour stayer) winning first up over the mile in their Autumn campaigns last year, both in dominant fashion, neither of those horse had shown anywhere near the brilliance of Pussiance in their previous campaigns. The figures and sectionals he was producing at the end of his staying races were exceptional putting him into the elite category of horses in Australia, I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he blows them away on Saturday.
NOTE: Has to be question marks at this distance but I’m expecting his brilliance to get him thru, time and time again you see class horses winning first up at unsuitable distances against inferior horses. He doesn’t have to beat much, Callanish not going well enough, Wall Street hasn’t won for 3 years and Dany The Fox is horribly in at the weigths.
SPEED MAP: Drawn the inside but only a small field, there are 3 horses likely to go forward and set the speed, at worst I think it will be an even tempo which will have Puissance stalking them and ready to pounce, if they set a strong speed he can sit back and run over them.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $3.0 + (33%) – Went up $6 and has been backed already.
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS: If anything is to beat him I think it is Wall Street but I will be going 1 out.
3:15 pm – Race 6 Flemington – Moment Of Change @ $3.0 (33%) (Bet365) – Before his last run in the Lightning Stakes I stated that he was my early selection for the Newmarket Hcp and the only thing that has changed since then is the price available, could have got $12+ in futures markets before his outstanding 2nd to Black Caviar in the Lightning. Deserved favourite for the race, showed his class last campaign winning the Group 1 Rupert Clarke producing outstanding figures, comfortably beat a subsequent Group 1 winner in that race. His effort in the Lightning was as good of a lead up run for this race as there has been in recent years, his performance rated 2.7 lengths superior to that of Hay Lists lead up run before winning this race last year with 58kg. Looks extremely hard to beat.
NOTE: I believe there are only 3 winning chances in the race and he is clearly on top, wish I had taken my own advice and taken the big odds a few weeks back.
SPEED MAP: Drawn the middle which is perfect, not huge speed engaged but not really an issue either way as he has a high cruising speed and will be in the perfect spot in the run.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $2.80 + (35%) – I think we might get $3.20 + on the day so wait, certainly won’t start shorter than the current quote.
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS: I think the only horse that could possibly beat him is Better Than Ready with the 50.5kgs.
3:35 pm – Race 5 W-Farm – Riva De Lago @ $4.40 (22%) (TAB) – I like him here as I think he has 2 distinct advantages on the field he faces, he is racing in career best form and every other horse in the race is first up, some of which are also unsuited at the distance. The form out of the races behind him is good and he has been winning by big spaces, seems him extremely well placed and if he runs up to his last 2 starts then he should prove hard to beat.
NOTE: Has been known to be a talented money muncher in the past but seems to have put it together since moving to the Waller stable, form is hard to fault.
SPEED MAP: My one concern, doesn’t look to be a great deal of pace, will need to be ridden more forward than usual but given he will not have to be used up to do so he will still have his sprint.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $3.80 (26%)
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS: Even behind him.
4:40 pm – Race 8 Flemington – Spirit Song @ $6.01 (16%) (Betfair) – She is the best mare in the race who looks much better suited here than when first up. Her first up effort was very good, she had the big weight, got back on a slow tempo and hit the line strongly under no riding whatsoever, continually running up the back end of horses she probably wins if she sees daylight. Her 2nd to Solzhenitsyn in the Group 1 Toorak in the Spring wins this race easily, her form over 1600M and on Good tracks is outstanding, no good thing but looks well placed, her class will take her a long way here.
NOTE: Mares races are typically even but she is the class horse (her peak figure from the Toorak is 5 lengths superior to any horse in the race), she never runs a bad race and sure to be in the finish.
SPEED MAP: Not a great deal of speed in the race but I expect Craig Willams to take a forward of midfield position and produce her in the straight.
RECOMMENDED PRICE: $5.0 + (20%)
INVESTMENT: 1 UNIT
SAVERS:
BEST BET: Race 4 Flemington - Puissance De Lune
Good Luck
DragzLS1
Team Captain
What about Ortensia in the NewMarket and Green Moon in the Aus cup? Looks like everybody is jumping on super cool for the Aus cup. p.s I dont know much about horse racing
- Jul 3, 2001
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Green Moon and Better than Ready for me.
But my big bucks will be going on Norzita, Benetta and Secret Admirer
Feeling I've forgotten one..
The Champ (Puissance De Lune) I don't expect to win
But my big bucks will be going on Norzita, Benetta and Secret Admirer
Feeling I've forgotten one..
The Champ (Puissance De Lune) I don't expect to win
I thought she came up short enough, was impressive enough in her wins but only rated ok with me, I actually think its a competitive race.
I understand why people are concerned about PDL but Green Moon and Manhighar have shown that high class stayers will beat the 2nd tier milers when first up, PDL is a more brilliant horse than both of them.
The big thing for me was the price they went up with, with all the hype surrounding him and the Green Moon result last year I thought he would be at best $3s and therefore was going to steer clear but the $6s was just too appealing for a horse of his capabilities.
Not concerned about the distance, I remember his 2nd start in Australia over 1800M when sitting 3 wide no cover but closer to the speed, he destroyed them and although he didn't beat a lot he was untouched and the figures for him on that day were good enough to win this race. Better horse now too, they key to him is being ridden closer to the speed, wherever you put him in the run he travels at his own leisure, a serious animal and I'm definitely expecting him to win tomorrow.
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