Racing October Daily Punt- A cup , A plate and trip up Everest

Remove this Banner Ad

OhhhhhCyril said:
Question for the punters, particularly horse racing. What sort of a betting strategy or staking plan do you generally try and stick to? My biggest issue is I get involved with races I really shouldn’t. Sometimes it turns profitable, but more often than not.

An example is those stupid midway races on a Saturday.. let’s be honest nobody should really get involved.. but ya know JMac Waller.. 1st up.. $2.50 ..

For me, Let’s say i’am walking into Caulfield on Saturday. Already having backed broadsiding at 4s.
I’ll have my “bank “ for the day let’s say it’s $1000..

Across the Melbourne/Sydney/Adeliade there are 30 odd races to choose from and no i’am not counting Wodonga or some Western Australian random track.

Ideally I find by 3 best bets regardless of the price and bet accordingly based on a % of bankroll and confidence. Maybe 10-15% Into a quaddie/doubles and a 10-15% fun bets to make it interesting.. nothing big but maybe a tri/f4 for interest.

Is there something else I can or should be doing that might help with my overall management and staking other than the obvious of punting at Doomban, Donald, Kemba ect;
Click to expand...
I'd steer clear of Adelaide and Perth for one. The level of racing is a rung below the eastern states. Its different folks for different strokes. I'm personally a win only bettor unless the horse I like is longer than 10/1. I proportional stake and always stake to win a certain amount on the race even if i back multiple runners. Do you monitor betfair? Often you can cotton onto a firmer before some of the bigger firms wake up to it. The last 5 minutes on betfair and the tote is where the bigger syndicates show their hand. if you can see the trend early you can almost guarantee to beat the SP
 

Log in to remove this ad.

A few at the early prices Saturday.

Rosehill R7#3 Attrition. Already been 26 into 17. Looks set to peak now at the 1900 and this isn't an overly strong race outside of the fave on the 7 day back up. Mertens flying up for the one ride is a pretty big indicator for me.

Caulfield
R5#16 Suparazi another that has been met with early market support. May want it a touch wetter, but looks a set play here 4th up with the senior rider going on and back down to the minimum after carry 60+kgs all 3 starts back. Arguably should have won first up. Jimmystar looks far too short to me

R7#6 Deny Knowledge. Looks the only speed here and her run was ok on paper first up. Normally improves into her prep i'd be more confident over slightly further, but Zahra on a plus
 
Everest and All Star Mile obtain G1 status. Heaps of Sydney pop up races receive black type status.

Lots of established races going to cop hits to their status as a result of this decision
 
Waca Jr said:
Broadsiding scared them all off. Looks a thin year, but still very much relevant. Guineas winners turn out to be the best sires
Click to expand...
Very much a fallacy. There has rarely been a decent sire recently, they just can charge heaps more at stud if they win it. There have been a few decent sires. but no superstar ones since probably Lohnro
 

Attachments

  • 1728469314434.png
    1728469314434.png
    10.6 KB · Views: 14

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Waca Jr said:
I'd steer clear of Adelaide and Perth for one. The level of racing is a rung below the eastern states. Its different folks for different strokes. I'm personally a win only bettor unless the horse I like is longer than 10/1. I proportional stake and always stake to win a certain amount on the race even if i back multiple runners. Do you monitor betfair? Often you can cotton onto a firmer before some of the bigger firms wake up to it. The last 5 minutes on betfair and the tote is where the bigger syndicates show their hand. if you can see the trend early you can almost guarantee to beat the SP
Click to expand...
I steer in to WA racing,especially dirt track action in the north/west.
Lean into Melbourne Spring Carnival.
NSW racing is a no-go zone.
 
Waca Jr said:
I'd steer clear of Adelaide and Perth for one. The level of racing is a rung below the eastern states. Its different folks for different strokes. I'm personally a win only bettor unless the horse I like is longer than 10/1. I proportional stake and always stake to win a certain amount on the race even if i back multiple runners. Do you monitor betfair? Often you can cotton onto a firmer before some of the bigger firms wake up to it. The last 5 minutes on betfair and the tote is where the bigger syndicates show their hand. if you can see the trend early you can almost guarantee to beat the SP
Click to expand...
I think us plebs are on a couple of seconds delay on betfair. The corporates and pros get a bit of a head start on exchange prices. I believe you can pay for a betfair premium account but I’ve never looked into it. It is a good feeling seeing something you backed get crunched late on betfair!
 
HeathySure said:
Very much a fallacy. There has rarely been a decent sire recently, they just can charge heaps more at stud if they win it. There have been a few decent sires. but no superstar ones since probably Lohnro
Click to expand...
You got the honour roll of the Coolmore by comparison though?
 
chunkylover said:
I think us plebs are on a couple of seconds delay on betfair. The corporates and pros get a bit of a head start on exchange prices. I believe you can pay for a betfair premium account but I’ve never looked into it. It is a good feeling seeing something you backed get crunched late on betfair!
Click to expand...
I think you may be right, the same privilege that the big syndicates get by cancelling bets 3s into the jump on the tote. Absolute rort.
 
I'll be taking on Mr Brightside at the shorts I think. Have never thought he was more than a miler and happy to go with that again. He has had 6 runs beyond the mile for 4 unplaced, a distant 3rd and that 2nd in the Cox Plate which stands out as a massive outlier to me where he got the absolute dream rails run and never had to go around a horse.
 
Jugada said:
I'll be taking on Mr Brightside at the shorts I think. Have never thought he was more than a miler and happy to go with that again. He has had 6 runs beyond the mile for 4 unplaced, a distant 3rd and that 2nd in the Cox Plate which stands out as a massive outlier to me where he got the absolute dream rails run and never had to go around a horse.
Click to expand...

He could very well get the dream rails run and not have to go around a horse on Saturday. Certainly looks that way on the map.
 

Remove this Banner Ad

Racing October Daily Punt- A cup , A plate and trip up Everest

Similar threads

juice t
Racing October Daily Punt: Planting a Cup on top of Everest
13 14 15 16 17
Replies
405
Views
21K
Big Bryza
B
balmainforever
Racing Paris's Two Cups and a Plate Comp
2 3 4
Replies
83
Views
4K
Peter Doherty
Peter Doherty
Viva la Mattner
Racing November daily punt - Xmas in Nov.. “aka” Derby Day and some 2 mile race
8 9 10 11 12
Replies
292
Views
14K
Hamingja
Hamingja
juice t
  • Sticky
Racing December Daily Punt: When Pikey loses your Christmas money
2
Replies
30
Views
2K
Lunchtime
Lunchtime
HeathySure
November Daily Punt - Cups Derbies Oaks Guineas and a Gong
6 7 8 9 10
Replies
249
Views
19K
Gresham2King
Gresham2King
HeathySure
Racing March Daily Punt - Monsoon Month in Sydney
2 3 4
Replies
98
Views
6K
Jugada
Jugada
HeathySure
February Daily Punt - Thread is late, like the horses I punt on
2
Replies
26
Views
2K
Areyoufireal
A

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top