Like Scratchy Bottom in the SA Derby
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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
May - Daily Punt
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iluvparis
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Interest really has totally fallen off a cliff now that The Championships are over!
Rooster Cogburn
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Tomorrow is a completely uninspiring day of racing.
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Yes not the best weekend but backing a group 1 winner pays punters the same as a winner elsewhere.
Just on Akzar - I note the form around it and new glamour import our Voodoo Prince is holding up with the 3rd place getter behind them the other day Trade Commissioner - also an import - taking out the Wagga Gold Cup
Just on Akzar - I note the form around it and new glamour import our Voodoo Prince is holding up with the 3rd place getter behind them the other day Trade Commissioner - also an import - taking out the Wagga Gold Cup
A11dAtP0w3R
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Ive found some good value at Caulfield today, as you said Gav, pays the same.
Adelaide is a very very hard card, add to that the heavy track, wont be playing too much there today..
Our Voodoo Prince is iluvparis Caulfield Cup tip isnt it?
Yep plenty of good value about today. The Hawkesbury card looks alright, betting wise as well.
Hawkesbury:
Race 6 - 3.3 Units Leebaz - on at the opening price of $2.
Gold Coast:
Race 7 - 1.75 Units - Leebaz into Junoob @ $4.75. 0.85 Units Leebaz into Streama @ $8.6.
If Leebaz goes under I'm out there but wanted to back both and this the only way I can, if I had to back one of them it would be Streama provided the track improves during the day.
Morphettiville:
Race 7 - 2.75 Units - Tango's Daughter.
Race 8 - 0.9 Units - Scratchy Bottom @ $7.80, I'm in Betfair trying to lay her @ $4.6 to get my 0.9 Units back. I liked Order of The Sun on a dry track but won't in on the HVY.
Basically my day revolves around Leebaz, if he rates to where he did last start with 54kgs he should win easily.
Race 6 - 3.3 Units Leebaz - on at the opening price of $2.
Gold Coast:
Race 7 - 1.75 Units - Leebaz into Junoob @ $4.75. 0.85 Units Leebaz into Streama @ $8.6.
If Leebaz goes under I'm out there but wanted to back both and this the only way I can, if I had to back one of them it would be Streama provided the track improves during the day.
Morphettiville:
Race 7 - 2.75 Units - Tango's Daughter.
Race 8 - 0.9 Units - Scratchy Bottom @ $7.80, I'm in Betfair trying to lay her @ $4.6 to get my 0.9 Units back. I liked Order of The Sun on a dry track but won't in on the HVY.
Basically my day revolves around Leebaz, if he rates to where he did last start with 54kgs he should win easily.
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
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Tango's ive been on the past two runs but unders at $2.50 atm for me (ive got at $3.30)
Did very well getting Leebaz at 2's mate. Ive got at $1.70, i thought that was short enough, but even less in some markets. Should win easily, but a no bet/value race for me sadly. Would be all over the 2's if still available.
SA Derby, very very hard race....specing a couple of them that i have overs, but nothing with any sort of confidence.
Doing some markets on GC features now, so i may or may not have a lil nibble up there today, good luck.
I'm on Tango's Daughter @ $2.80, thought that was reasonable enough, she is clearly the best horse in the race on my ratings, her peak rating is 3 lengths superior to the next best.
Admitedly the peak ratings came first and 2nd up this time in but she beat a better field last start, is a winner and is drawn for the dream run here, a $2.40-$2.50 chance in my opinion.
Admitedly the peak ratings came first and 2nd up this time in but she beat a better field last start, is a winner and is drawn for the dream run here, a $2.40-$2.50 chance in my opinion.
A11dAtP0w3R
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The one to beat (hot form around some good horses, youre right) but the heavy track (even though she has performed well on in the past in a much weaker race) has her unders on my market, $2.80 isnt a bad price, i have her fav, the one to beat, but Lady Lakshmi a lil bit closer on a heavy track than most markets suggest at $4. Her run last week when she was taken on by plenty in Sydney was fantastic, run before that when lead Tango's at SBP (leaders grave yard generally) was very good as well, still cant bet on her either at the $4.40 -$4.80 available, not quite enough V!
May spec Tikitour who despite having no wet track form what so ever is overs at $13, will keep the powder dry right now, think he could get out even further.
Edit:
on Lady Lakshmi at $5 - win (betstar) 0.5 units
Lady Lakshmi at $1.95 - place (betstar) 1.25 units
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Caulfield
Race 12 - Under the Louvre
Race 32 - River Delta
Gold Coast
Race 110 - Monbazillac
Race 213 - Doughty
Race 516 - Srikandi
Race 62 - Benny's Buttons
Race 76 - Junoob
Hawkesbury
Race 22 - Charlie Royale
Race 32 - Harmonic
Race 47 - Grand Marshal
Race 515 - The Messina Nymph
Race 61 - Mouro
Race 84 - Pocket Rockets
Morphettville
Race 16 - Sheez On Top
Race 210 - Exalted Appeal
Race 65 - Lucky Symbol
Race 74 - Thomason
Race 81 - Gamblin' Guru
Race 914 - Wrist Watch
Race 12 - Under the Louvre
Race 32 - River Delta
Gold Coast
Race 110 - Monbazillac
Race 213 - Doughty
Race 516 - Srikandi
Race 62 - Benny's Buttons
Race 76 - Junoob
Hawkesbury
Race 22 - Charlie Royale
Race 32 - Harmonic
Race 47 - Grand Marshal
Race 515 - The Messina Nymph
Race 61 - Mouro
Race 84 - Pocket Rockets
Morphettville
Race 16 - Sheez On Top
Race 210 - Exalted Appeal
Race 65 - Lucky Symbol
Race 74 - Thomason
Race 81 - Gamblin' Guru
Race 914 - Wrist Watch
A11dAtP0w3R
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adding:
Smart Moochi 0.2 units - win (BT+) (ladbrokes)
Smart Moochi 0.4 units- place (Bof3T) (ladbrokes)
Smart Moochi 0.2 units - win (BT+) (ladbrokes)
Smart Moochi 0.4 units- place (Bof3T) (ladbrokes)
Retired Jimmy
Cancelled
Could be a disastrous day today ..... But here goes.
Caulfield:
R1: 8 Villopoto
R2: 8 Tooleybuc Kid
R3: 2 River Delta
R4: 1: Easy Drama
R5: 6: means a Lot
R6: 7 Loot N Run
R7: 6 Mighty Like
R8: 2 Happy as Hell
Caulfield:
R1: 8 Villopoto
R2: 8 Tooleybuc Kid
R3: 2 River Delta
R4: 1: Easy Drama
R5: 6: means a Lot
R6: 7 Loot N Run
R7: 6 Mighty Like
R8: 2 Happy as Hell
must have only been a finger nail in it.
On three today
Moe r6 - Vin De Vie @ $6.50 place
Moe r7 Chalumeau @ 5.50 win
Grafton r5 Hilltop ew @ $8/$2.50
Moe r6 - Vin De Vie @ $6.50 place
Moe r7 Chalumeau @ 5.50 win
Grafton r5 Hilltop ew @ $8/$2.50
Early thoughts for the Goodwood on Saturday.
Miracles of Life if the stand out in my opinion, she ran genuine Group 1 figures with her Caulfield wins as a 2yo, was okay but never reached those heights as a Spring 3yo but has been excellent this campaign. Ran very nice figures with good closing sectionals behind Minaj 2 starts back, her raw figures were 1.8 lengths superior to Drifontein who also won a sprint on that day, Miracles of Life did so carrying +2.5kgs on WFA whilst Drifontein carried WFA, either way you look at it Miracles of Life the superior performance, although Drifontein did ran the best closing sectionals of the day.
MOL improved that raw figure by almost a length last Saturday carrying +.05kgs on WFA and most importantly did so at 1200M.
She gets into this in peak form with 54kgs, has drawn ideally and has now shown that she handles all track conditions, this her biggest test to date but a repeat of her last 2 runs and she is very hard to beat, the one knock is the quick back up.
I also like Drifonteins chances who ran right up to her best last start and will need to again but hard to knock mares in form which she is, my concern with her however is the track condition, if it remains in the slow range I would be happy to go around her, an improving D5-D4 and I think she is the biggest threat to MOL.
Sessions brings strong Sydney Autumn form and is right in this if he runs up to that, importantly has had the month between runs from a tough TJ, will handle the slow but his barrier is going to make it particularly hard for him, they will need to be able to come from the back if he is to feature and he will need luck.
Other chances but with knocks, Platelet (barrier), Gregers (has become a non winner) and Pago Rock (consistent and well weighted but not sure he is up to this) whilst Office Bearer and Unpretentious wouldn't shock. To be honest it probably doesn't end there either.
I will be backing a few in the race but at this stage Miracles of Life is the only one I will definitely be on, the rest will depend on pattern/track conditions.
Miracles of Life if the stand out in my opinion, she ran genuine Group 1 figures with her Caulfield wins as a 2yo, was okay but never reached those heights as a Spring 3yo but has been excellent this campaign. Ran very nice figures with good closing sectionals behind Minaj 2 starts back, her raw figures were 1.8 lengths superior to Drifontein who also won a sprint on that day, Miracles of Life did so carrying +2.5kgs on WFA whilst Drifontein carried WFA, either way you look at it Miracles of Life the superior performance, although Drifontein did ran the best closing sectionals of the day.
MOL improved that raw figure by almost a length last Saturday carrying +.05kgs on WFA and most importantly did so at 1200M.
She gets into this in peak form with 54kgs, has drawn ideally and has now shown that she handles all track conditions, this her biggest test to date but a repeat of her last 2 runs and she is very hard to beat, the one knock is the quick back up.
I also like Drifonteins chances who ran right up to her best last start and will need to again but hard to knock mares in form which she is, my concern with her however is the track condition, if it remains in the slow range I would be happy to go around her, an improving D5-D4 and I think she is the biggest threat to MOL.
Sessions brings strong Sydney Autumn form and is right in this if he runs up to that, importantly has had the month between runs from a tough TJ, will handle the slow but his barrier is going to make it particularly hard for him, they will need to be able to come from the back if he is to feature and he will need luck.
Other chances but with knocks, Platelet (barrier), Gregers (has become a non winner) and Pago Rock (consistent and well weighted but not sure he is up to this) whilst Office Bearer and Unpretentious wouldn't shock. To be honest it probably doesn't end there either.
I will be backing a few in the race but at this stage Miracles of Life is the only one I will definitely be on, the rest will depend on pattern/track conditions.
A11dAtP0w3R
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Pago Rock will more than likely be my biggest bet in this race, can see him coming up overs on my market, $26 seems very luxurious. Been lumping massive weights and running some beauties at WFA as well during the autumn, class isnt a worry, my only concern is that he has been up along time (Hayes very good at this though) but the previous start showed no signs or ill effects with a massive performance coming from last at Caulfield, albiet in weaker grade. Beat MOL out of sight four runs back at Flemington and meets her 5.5kgs better off for it. Handles all conditions.
Think Sessions is defiantly the danger, but needs things to suit, classy galloper but very disappointing autumn for mine, maybe needs a drier track?
Chances to Driefontein, Gregers Sistine Demon and at bigger odds Smokin Joey and Ready to Rip. Very open race.
MOL seems to race very well in SA, that her plus for me, but everytime she has been in this sort of class out of age restricted races she has failed. Unpretentious has the ability but needs a firm track to perform at her best, even with a drier week in Adelaide i dont think she gets a good track. Will be avoiding these two, think they will be well under the odds once i have done a market.
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MOL was first up against Pago Rock whilst he was well and truly up and running, she was also first time down the straight, she has rated nearly 6 lengths better than that performance her last 2.
I give Pago Rock a definite chance as I did in the Newmarket when he got down in the weights but he never performed that day, rated well below his best.
For mine he is very consistent and has a few career spikes (last start an example, was good in the Lightning also) but I can see him finding one or two better again here.
I give Pago Rock a definite chance as I did in the Newmarket when he got down in the weights but he never performed that day, rated well below his best.
For mine he is very consistent and has a few career spikes (last start an example, was good in the Lightning also) but I can see him finding one or two better again here.
A11dAtP0w3R
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I think ill be willing to take my chances at $26 on Pago with a 5.5kg swing on beating MOL on that Flemington run, first up, maybe an excuse, but i know even before doing a market that i wont be diving into MOL at the $6.50.
Respect your judgement, MM, you could very well be right, but just with the way my bets are placed/structured you couldnt hold me at gun point and tell me to take the $6.50
That's fair enough but Id be careful basing investments on one example, if the run down the straight was all we had to go by then no doubt Pago Rock beats her but that's not how it works, she has found many lengths since whilst he has run to his usual consistent level, his biggest asset here is the weight advantage but as I said earlier he got down in the weights in the Newmarket and rated well below his capabilities, even though I use weights to get to my final ratings I feel weight is sometimes given too much credence, it varies for different horses which makes it hard to gauge.
Its likely he will end up one of my bets with 3 or 4 of them running for the same 4-5 unit result but at this stage for me she is the one I find it hard to knock and the only one I definitely want to be backing.
Remember she was a Blue Diamond winner a little over 12 months ago, she rated well in doing so and beat horses such as Gregers/Shamus Award/Dissident/Guelph so it's no shock to see her now fulfilling her talent now, she is a very good horse.
On her last 2 ratings she wins this race more than 1.4 ($7.50) times out of 10 (more like 4-5), now of course you cannot say she is certain to run to that level again because if it was that easy to predict we would all be millionaires but importantly she is racing at her peak, is drawn well and handles the conditions which will means she gets every opportunity to run to that level, which makes the $7.50 available a fair price in my opinion.
Its likely he will end up one of my bets with 3 or 4 of them running for the same 4-5 unit result but at this stage for me she is the one I find it hard to knock and the only one I definitely want to be backing.
Remember she was a Blue Diamond winner a little over 12 months ago, she rated well in doing so and beat horses such as Gregers/Shamus Award/Dissident/Guelph so it's no shock to see her now fulfilling her talent now, she is a very good horse.
On her last 2 ratings she wins this race more than 1.4 ($7.50) times out of 10 (more like 4-5), now of course you cannot say she is certain to run to that level again because if it was that easy to predict we would all be millionaires but importantly she is racing at her peak, is drawn well and handles the conditions which will means she gets every opportunity to run to that level, which makes the $7.50 available a fair price in my opinion.
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