More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - featuring the mini-draft

[yaco55]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

I will declare my hand I know the O'Meara family, spoke to his old man three weeks ago.
He said that they are hoping one of the two wa clubs win a trade to gws.

So Jaeger can stay in WA, if they cant get a trade he will wait out for the draft next year.

Collingwood through Andrew Lockyer the former WA under 18 coach now collingwood's wa recruiting manager, has been into him a big way.

Jaeger hasn't been interested in going to Collingwood and told them so, but his old man is very impressed with Collingwood's professional approach.
Apart from WCE and Freo they have been the next club to keep in constant contact with them.
And yes he is very good in the Cotchin class as a junior.

I was alluding to the fact that O'Meara may decline to be a traded 17 year old - clubs cant come to an arrangement - My understanding is that GWS still have first DIBS in the following year - And if O'Meara has a GUN year in the juniors or even senior WAFL level - His trade value may increase !

This whole trading for GWS's four 17 year olds has many possible permutations.

 

[dajesmac]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

So does O'Meara think Freo or WC will finish bottom 2 in 2012? He won't end up there otherwise. Doesn't make sense to me. He'd be better off getting into a system a year early, get advanced training and make a player of himself. That extra year could make a big difference in terms of salary down the track.

This mini-draft isn't determined by where teams finish. I've heard mixed stories, but they trade with GWS for the rights to picks 1-4 in the draft. Jaeger, at this point, looks like being pick 1, which is what the Perth teams will be bidding for.

 

[Ants]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

I was alluding to the fact that O'Meara may decline to be a traded 17 year old - clubs cant come to an arrangement - My understanding is that GWS still have first DIBS in the following year - And if O'Meara has a GUN year in the juniors or even senior WAFL level - His trade value may increase !

This whole trading for GWS's four 17 year olds has many possible permutations.

The four picks can be traded either year, but it applies to different kids. Any picks for 17yr olds traded in 2012 instead of 2011 apply to 17yr olds for the 2012 draft - i.e. kids who would otherwise be eligible for the 2013 draft (although only about a third of the draft class are eligible for this as it only covers birth dates over January to April).

So if O'Meara declined to be included in the process this year, next year he would enter the draft just like any normal kid. Presumably go top 5, so unless WCE or Freo do a lot worse than expected he would probably be off interstate.

 

[Ants]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

So is the mini-draft guarenteed? It seems to be from this article
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But I'm a bit confused by all the posts saying things like "Bernie Vince for Ben Kennedy" and "O'Meara will only deal with WA clubs". If it's a mini-draft then it would seem like the 17 year olds don't have a choice just like every other draftee.

I've also heard that draft picks can't be used in the trade, is this right?

If it's a mini-draft and draft picks can't be traded, I would think that Freo have almost no chance of getting O'Meara.[/LEFT]

Yep, the article was already posted (but only 5 posts before you!).

Frankly, I think its still up in the air. You have this Age article referring to the mini-draft. You have the AFL article I linked to in the OP that says clubs nominate a player and the club and GWS directly negotiate a trade based on that player. This jells with the articles proposing Essendon trade for Danniher on a lower cost basis (since he's not pinching from the pool GWS could draft in 2012) and the talk of Adelaide targeting Viney. If its a draft, those players aren't certain.

It also fits better with the fact the picks can be split across two years, and the idea the club has to have talked to the player first and got permission.

But the articles/discussions on the mini-draft do continue. It would be nice of the AFL to declare absolutely what the position is.

 

[TigerTime88]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

So essentially he has a few options:

1. West Coast or Freo win the trade with GWS and he goes there and they get an absolute steal.

2. A Vic club that is into him like Coll/Ess/Rich win and he comes over to VIC

3. GWS Bound in the draft if he waits it out.

Surely if you were this kid and you couldn't go to a WA club you would prefer to move to Melbourne and play for a traditional club rather than GWS.

It sounds like he won't play ball though unless it's with a WA club so I can see them winning this. Essentially Sheedy deals with their offers or gets nothing.

Freo could offer up plenty of players as they have a great young list. Can see Sheedy loving someone like Michael Johnson packaged with Broughton to give them some senior experience. Would that be a fair trade?

West Coast have fringe players who are still young such as Brown, Masten ect that they could offer up.

Can see a deal being done between one of these two to be honest.

 

[Vader]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

one would assume draft picks can't be traded to get these kids.

There's nothing in the rules to prevent this from happening. All the rules state are:

36.9 Trade Incentives – 2011 and 2012
(a) In addition to the permitted exchanges under Rule 4.3 and 36.8, in 2011 WSFC will be provided with the opportunity to on trade to another Club the right to select up to four 17 year olds (born January – April 1994) during the period determined by the General Manager – Football Operations and in accordance with guidelines established by the AFL.
(b) Should WSFC not on trade the opportunity select all four 17 year olds under Rule 36.9(a) in 2011, WSFC will be provided with the opportunity to on trade to another Club the right to select further 17 year olds (born January – April 1995) during the period determined by the General Manager – Football Operations and in accordance with guidelines established by the AFL, provided that no more than four 17 year olds in total are in traded under this Rules 36.9.

I don't see anything there about what can or cannot be traded - therefore I conclude that draft picks can be traded to GWS in order to obtain the rights to participate in the mini-draft.

the whole point of this process was to get some senior guys into the GWS set up and gives club garuanteed access to some top line youngsters....

I agree with you 100% - GWS should be forced to trade for players, not picks. Unfortunately, that's not the way the rules are written.

 

[Prem87]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

If Freo get him I'd be livered...their midfield will be something else.

So we can trade draft picks with GWS and vice versa?

Eg. ASelwood + SSelwood + Pick 18 for Omeara + Pick 11...would that work hypothetically

 

[liz]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

So essentially he has a few options:

1. West Coast or Freo win the trade with GWS and he goes there and they get an absolute steal.

2. A Vic club that is into him like Coll/Ess/Rich win and he comes over to VIC

3. GWS Bound in the draft if he waits it out.

Surely if you were this kid and you couldn't go to a WA club you would prefer to move to Melbourne and play for a traditional club rather than GWS.

Why would he be GWS bound if he waits it out. Their domination of the first round of the ND is at the end of this season, not 2012. Of course there is a decent chance they will finish close to the bottom in their maiden season and hence qualify for a highish draft pick, but there is no guarantee they will have the first pick in 2012.

Not sure why you think a player who has to leave his home state would prefer to go to Melbourne than GWS. The reality is that, for most kids, once they get used to the idea of leaving their home state, they will settle anywhere they are sent. The prospect of being involved in a start-up club with an exciting young list might be just as attractive as playing for what you term "the traditional" clubs. And if his aim is to get back to WA as soon as possible, I suspect GWS will be a better launching pad that most other clubs because they will probably be more willing to trade some of their highly talented young players in their first few years of existence as they gradually try and build a balanced squad.

 

[Lach72]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

If Freo get him I'd be livered..

Mmmm...pate.

Duffield has signed until 2014, but he's the type I'd be looking at.

Durable, only 25/6 years old, good disposal and run. Johnson I'd chuck in for free.

If Daniel Rich decides to come home, it could change things for WC a fair bit.

Personally, I'd be going for him IF he's that good with anything bar Fyfe, Mundy, Hill, McPharlin, Pav, Sandi, Broughton and Barlow.

Picking him up, would allow us to go tall at the next draft and cull a bit harder and pick up some promising rookies.

 

[Danair]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

If O'Meara is as good as everybody is saying he is then the teams from WA or Collingwood will need to give up something valuable (A grade player, high pick) to get him!

Offering up list cloggers isn't going to do it.

With all due respect to the talent GWS have and will get they are most likely to finish at the bottom next year, so they could draft O'Meara in 2012. He is good mates with Stephen Coniglio.

 

[yaco55]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

The four picks can be traded either year, but it applies to different kids. Any picks for 17yr olds traded in 2012 instead of 2011 apply to 17yr olds for the 2012 draft - i.e. kids who would otherwise be eligible for the 2013 draft (although only about a third of the draft class are eligible for this as it only covers birth dates over January to April).

So if O'Meara declined to be included in the process this year, next year he would enter the draft just like any normal kid. Presumably go top 5, so unless WCE or Freo do a lot worse than expected he would probably be off interstate.

The whole scenario is a touch confusing - but it seems as though the rules are ambigous - At least GWS has FLEXIBILITY.

 

[Turbocat]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Whens the deadline , I suspect it will go to the wire with the real interest starting after the champs and peaking just before the deadline.

 

[Ants]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Whens the deadline , I suspect it will go to the wire with the real interest starting after the champs and peaking just before the deadline.

Don't know, but would guess start of trade week. Similar to the cut-off for them taking players from the lower leagues.

If a mini-draft occurs, that would probably happen later after the trades.

 

[Hank93]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Matt Rendall on Five AA sounded like he even didn't know how the 17 year old trades worked. He said it was quite messy and didn't think the AFL executed the purpose of it correctly. If GWS really though these 17 year olds were that good, then they would just wait for 2012 draft when they can get them.

However he mentioned that the bidding apparently occurs in August 2011. What a dumb time of the year. He didn't sound very keen to get involved.

 

[theGav56]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Personally, I'd be going for him IF he's that good with anything bar Fyfe, Mundy, Hill, McPharlin, Pav, Sandi, Broughton and Barlow.

Picking him up, would allow us to go tall at the next draft and cull a bit harder and pick up some promising rookies.

Morabitto? Ballantyne maybe? I'd have Mora ahead of Broughton, but wouldn't trade either in this deal.

 

[Turbocat]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Matt Rendall on Five AA sounded like he even didn't know how the 17 year old trades worked. He said it was quite messy and didn't think the AFL executed the purpose of it correctly. If GWS really though these 17 year olds were that good, then they would just wait for 2012 draft when they can get them.

However he mentioned that the bidding apparently occurs in August 2011. What a dumb time of the year. He didn't sound very keen to get involved.

How do they get "them" . One maybe but not multiples. I suspect if they find a right kid that would be happy to come to them , there is no way in hell they will deal on them but its long way before nov2012 and picking the #1 pick then is very long odds

 

[Yoda_]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Playing dumb here, but, who would be the top 4 - 5 17 year olds going around?

 

[Toadvine]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Off the top of my head...

O'meara
Yarran
Kennedy
Stringer (before broken leg)
and maybe....Nick Vlastuin?

 

[yaco55]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Matt Rendall on Five AA sounded like he even didn't know how the 17 year old trades worked. He said it was quite messy and didn't think the AFL executed the purpose of it correctly. If GWS really though these 17 year olds were that good, then they would just wait for 2012 draft when they can get them.

However he mentioned that the bidding apparently occurs in August 2011. What a dumb time of the year. He didn't sound very keen to get involved.

Doesn't that mean that GWS could offer up no 5 to 8 of the best 17 year olds - And hope to get one or two of the 1-4 ranked players. And they could still get decent players as a trade.

Gotta like the flexibility !

 

[Ants]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

How do they get "them" . One maybe but not multiples. I suspect if they find a right kid that would be happy to come to them , there is no way in hell they will deal on them but its long way before nov2012 and picking the #1 pick then is very long odds

Exactly.

What is more - these guys only represent one third of the draft. Anyone born between May and December isn't eligible for this scheme, and must go through the draft. If GWS think there is some quality players in that part of the draft for their first pick (they only get regular picks in 2012) they would be morons not to trade them. And what are the odds all the good kids come from 4 particular months and not the other 8 months?

 

[look at him goooo!]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Exactly.

What is more - these guys only represent one third of the draft. Anyone born between May and December isn't eligible for this scheme, and must go through the draft. If GWS think there is some quality players in that part of the draft for their first pick (they only get regular picks in 2012) they would be morons not to trade them. And what are the odds all the good kids come from 4 particular months and not the other 8 months?

About 50-55% of all AFL players are born in the first four months of the year. Its called the 'birthday effect' or something along those lines. Due to the cut off being the 31st December in junior footy, the kids born in the first 4 months of the year were physically more mature than others. This lead to the jan-apr players standing out more in games, due to being physically more developed, which lead to increased confidence, belief, importance, greater involvement in games than other players. this in turn allowed them to develop more as footballers. The draft up until recently had an effect, with players between jan-apr getting two chances at being drafted, while those born in the last 8 months only got 1.

This has been curbed somewhat though by the draft eligibility changing, so the figure would be around 45-50% now, but its much higher than the 33% you'd naturally expect

I just went over the collingwood senior list, exactly 50% (20 out of 40) senior listed players are born between January and April. Try it with your teams list see what you get!

 

[Vader]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

I just went over the collingwood senior list, exactly 50% (20 out of 40) senior listed players are born between January and April. Try it with your teams list see what you get!

14 out of 39 for Adelaide. Much closer to 33% than 50%.

 

[Danair]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

Exactly.

What is more - these guys only represent one third of the draft. Anyone born between May and December isn't eligible for this scheme, and must go through the draft. If GWS think there is some quality players in that part of the draft for their first pick (they only get regular picks in 2012) they would be morons not to trade them. And what are the odds all the good kids come from 4 particular months and not the other 8 months?

You'r right, Lachie Whitfeld looks like being the 2012 number 1 pick and he's born outside the trading scheme window.

 

[Buzzasto DaSilva]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

I don't believe the whole "birthday effect" thing. It is nothing more than a coincidence.

Don't lock Whitfield in for number #1 in 2012 either. There are a couple of SA boys coming through that look unbelievable.

 

[Turbocat]

Re: More clarity on GWS U17yr old trades - no mini-draft

I just went over the collingwood senior list, exactly 50% (20 out of 40) senior listed players are born between January and April. Try it with your teams list see what you get!

15 out 47 for Cats. I wonder if this is more relative for early picks than late.