My 2017 team

[go you pups]

Another interesting discussion point for teams this year I think is the 3 Sydney backline options (a lot of teams will be going with one of these), and who represents the best value

Lloyd
Mills
Jones

This is a sydney midfield that has to replace Mitchell, a player that was able to gather enough ball to average triple figures. It is also a Sydney backline that is most likely phasing out McVeigh, a player who also managed to consistently average mid 90's playing out of the backline. To put it simply, there is a lot of ball available and these three players will be the main ones to capatalise on the opportunities

Now I think that in terms of expected averages that the pricing system has them allocated accordingly. I'd expect Lloyd to average the most, potentially looking at a 95+ average (depending on role). Mills if he shows the improvement expected, should be able to average 85 if not nudge close to 90. Jones is a bit of a wildcard, as he has never shown fantasy relevance or been touted as future fantasy relevant, but is heavily underpriced at an average of 55. For me the big determinant between these three will come down to midfield minutes. Whoever can spend more time in the middle and pad their tackle stats (whilst getting uncontested marks down back) will be the one to go for.

Lloyd is probably the only one I would be comfortable predicting could be a backline keeper. Mills you can save about 80k on but is highly unlikely to average enough to be a D6 come the end of the season (Still a chance to be Top 15 i'd say). The difference between Jones and Mills is about 100k, but the difference in average output could be anywhere from 5ppg to 20ppg, and is an almost certain upgrade requirement later on.

Right now I have Mills sitting at D4, but am really having a look at the other two options to either cement a potential keeper, or try a riskier mid price option.

I'd feel comfortable having only Lloyd, he's had 2-3 years of 80 odd averages now, time for him to improve output now, but not sure what his ceiling could be.


I feel Lloyd is very similar to Josh Smith from Collingwood though, can see them both averaging about 85-90. Smith would be a massive POD too imo, but I wonder if his job security is sound?

I have had Tuohy and Marchbank swapping in and out of team reshuffles at D4 though FWIW. Got Tuohy there at the moment.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Another interesting discussion point for teams this year I think is the 3 Sydney backline options (a lot of teams will be going with one of these), and who represents the best value

Lloyd
Mills
Jones

This is a sydney midfield that has to replace Mitchell, a player that was able to gather enough ball to average triple figures. It is also a Sydney backline that is most likely phasing out McVeigh, a player who also managed to consistently average mid 90's playing out of the backline. To put it simply, there is a lot of ball available and these three players will be the main ones to capatalise on the opportunities

Now I think that in terms of expected averages that the pricing system has them allocated accordingly. I'd expect Lloyd to average the most, potentially looking at a 95+ average (depending on role). Mills if he shows the improvement expected, should be able to average 85 if not nudge close to 90. Jones is a bit of a wildcard, as he has never shown fantasy relevance or been touted as future fantasy relevant, but is heavily underpriced at an average of 55. For me the big determinant between these three will come down to midfield minutes. Whoever can spend more time in the middle and pad their tackle stats (whilst getting uncontested marks down back) will be the one to go for.

Lloyd is probably the only one I would be comfortable predicting could be a backline keeper. Mills you can save about 80k on but is highly unlikely to average enough to be a D6 come the end of the season (Still a chance to be Top 15 i'd say). The difference between Jones and Mills is about 100k, but the difference in average output could be anywhere from 5ppg to 20ppg, and is an almost certain upgrade requirement later on.

Right now I have Mills sitting at D4, but am really having a look at the other two options to either cement a potential keeper, or try a riskier mid price option.

I've considered all 3, but have settled with Jones provided he is named on the ball next week. First round draft pick, same draft as Bont and Merrett, priced at 55 and likely to play a lot of midfield. I reckon' he's a bargain but it could definitely backfire.

Mills could easily average 90 IMO. There's been young guns that have averaged over 90 by their second year - Jelwood, Fyfe, O'Meara, Titch, B Crouch, Macrae, Wines, Zerrett, Bontempelli. If anyone is going to join this list, it's last year's rising star winner.

 

[Schulzenfest]

I've considered all 3, but have settled with Jones provided he is named on the ball next week. First round draft pick, same draft as Bont and Merrett, priced at 55 and likely to play a lot of midfield. I reckon' he's a bargain but it could definitely backfire.

Lol, what does that have to do with anything?

 

[Slipps]

I've considered all 3, but have settled with Jones provided he is named on the ball next week. First round draft pick, same draft as Bont and Merrett, priced at 55 and likely to play a lot of midfield. I reckon' he's a bargain but it could definitely backfire.

Mills could easily average 90 IMO. There's been young guns that have averaged over 90 by their second year - Jelwood, Fyfe, O'Meara, Titch, B Crouch, Macrae, Wines, Zerrett, Bontempelli. If anyone is going to join this list, it's last year's rising star winner.

It is a very hard choice which ever one i pick if i did will be the wrong one... There is a few potential breakouts in the mids aswell but dont know which one to pick if i do Crouch, Kelly, Dumont, Steele then theres players like Heppell, Prestia, Murphy that could be keepers so hard to pick i feel like u have to take at least one or two and hope u have the right one

 

[doona]

Another interesting discussion point for teams this year I think is the 3 Sydney backline options (a lot of teams will be going with one of these), and who represents the best value

Lloyd
Mills
Jones

This is a sydney midfield that has to replace Mitchell, a player that was able to gather enough ball to average triple figures. It is also a Sydney backline that is most likely phasing out McVeigh, a player who also managed to consistently average mid 90's playing out of the backline. To put it simply, there is a lot of ball available and these three players will be the main ones to capatalise on the opportunities

Now I think that in terms of expected averages that the pricing system has them allocated accordingly. I'd expect Lloyd to average the most, potentially looking at a 95+ average (depending on role). Mills if he shows the improvement expected, should be able to average 85 if not nudge close to 90. Jones is a bit of a wildcard, as he has never shown fantasy relevance or been touted as future fantasy relevant, but is heavily underpriced at an average of 55. For me the big determinant between these three will come down to midfield minutes. Whoever can spend more time in the middle and pad their tackle stats (whilst getting uncontested marks down back) will be the one to go for.

Lloyd is probably the only one I would be comfortable predicting could be a backline keeper. Mills you can save about 80k on but is highly unlikely to average enough to be a D6 come the end of the season (Still a chance to be Top 15 i'd say). The difference between Jones and Mills is about 100k, but the difference in average output could be anywhere from 5ppg to 20ppg, and is an almost certain upgrade requirement later on.

Right now I have Mills sitting at D4, but am really having a look at the other two options to either cement a potential keeper, or try a riskier mid price option.

I watch every Sydney game, know our team in and out and Mills was never on my radar. Quality player but at his price he has to be a keeper (pushing the top 6 defenders) which I am not sold on.

I have Lloyd @ D4 in my team and I think that he will be in the top 6 defenders/pushing them come the end of the year.

Jones I have thought about as he is a terrier in the middle and I think that if he was played full time mids would have that 80's to 90's average. The reason his average is so low last year was mainly role based. Saying that, I am not comfortable in selecting him and adding another mid pricer especially with Horse and some of his tactics. If I am picking someone ~300K+ I want them to be in my team come the end of the season. Plus downgrading Lloyd to Jones, there is nothing I want to do with the money that justifies the risk

 

[doona]

Mills could easily average 90 IMO. There's been young guns that have averaged over 90 by their second year - Jelwood, Fyfe, O'Meara, Titch, B Crouch, Macrae, Wines, Zerrett, Bontempelli.

You are listing all players that played midfield in the AFL. Mills played as a defender last year and I think he is going to play a lot off the half backline this year. He will play through the middle but not as much as the players you mentioned.

As a Swans supporter, I would actually prefer Jones running through the midfield to take Titches spot as he is a terrior and would give JK3 awesome support at the coal face.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Lol, what does that have to do with anything?

He was rated as a better midfielder than Zerrett when taken in the draft. Other guys his age have broken out already; it could be Jones' time.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

You are listing all players that played midfield in the AFL. Mills played as a defender last year and I think he is going to play a lot off the half backline this year. He will play through the middle but not as much as the players you mentioned.

As a Swans supporter, I would actually prefer Jones running through the midfield to take Titches spot as he is a terrior and would give JK3 awesome support at the coal face.

Yes. Which is why I said I have locked Jones before the other two. If Mills played pure midfield he'd go 90+, but that's unlikely.

 

[go you pups]

He was rated as a better midfielder than Zerrett when taken in the draft. Other guys his age have broken out already; it could be Jones' time.

Jones is a linebreaker


His attributes suit him playing off half back or on the wing, can see Sydney using him as a Jetta replacement due to his speed.

Imo he's a vastly different player to his big brother.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

Jones is a linebreaker


His attributes suit him playing off half back or on the wing, can see Sydney using him as a Jetta replacement due to his speed.

Imo he's a vastly different player to his big brother.

Fair enough. So yes or no on Jones? He scored well in the JLT... Surely he can avg more than 55.

 

[go you pups]

Fair enough. So yes or no on Jones? He scored well in the JLT... Surely he can avg more than 55.

No

More of a AFL Fantasy pick, can't see him doing enough to be a keeper.

Think Guthrie, Jetta etc, that's Jones in a nutshell imo.

 

[CJApples87]

You are listing all players that played midfield in the AFL. Mills played as a defender last year and I think he is going to play a lot off the half backline this year. He will play through the middle but not as much as the players you mentioned.

As a Swans supporter, I would actually prefer Jones running through the midfield to take Titches spot as he is a terrior and would give JK3 awesome support at the coal face.

Before the last JLT game Horse said that Mills will more than likely play predominantly in the backline this year with Lloyd and Jones being pushed in to the midfield with Heeney out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[happy_eagle]

I watch every Sydney game, know our team in and out and Mills was never on my radar. Quality player but at his price he has to be a keeper (pushing the top 6 defenders) which I am not sold on.

I have Lloyd @ D4 in my team and I think that he will be in the top 6 defenders/pushing them come the end of the year.

Jones I have thought about as he is a terrier in the middle and I think that if he was played full time mids would have that 80's to 90's average. The reason his average is so low last year was mainly role based. Saying that, I am not comfortable in selecting him and adding another mid pricer especially with Horse and some of his tactics. If I am picking someone ~300K+ I want them to be in my team come the end of the season. Plus downgrading Lloyd to Jones, there is nothing I want to do with the money that justifies the risk

Agree on most of that, except I think you have set too high a criteria on mid-pricers (300k+)
There are some players within the 300k mark that are awesome value picks (Roughead, O'Meara) but are unlikely to be top 6/7 in their position.
I wouldn't want to spend 400k on a player unless I was seriously confident they would be there at the end, which is why maybe Jones might be a better pick than Mills.

I guess its typical Guns and Rookies vs mid-pricers argument. You could argue that spending 300k on Jones is too much if he's not going to be there at the end, and you can save money on a rookie. The benefit of going mid-price however
1. Jones will likely score at least 20 points per week more than a rookie (55 vs 75 lets say)
2. Jones will reach a higher upgradable price before any rookie should
3. I would imagine Jones has a pretty confirmed job security

 

[woofta]

Before the last JLT game Horse said that Mills will more than likely play predominantly in the backline this year with Lloyd and Jones being pushed in to the midfield with Heeney out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Would never trust a horse but Lloyd played mainly wing/fwd last year anyway.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

No

More of a AFL Fantasy pick, can't see him doing enough to be a keeper.

Think Guthrie, Jetta etc, that's Jones in a nutshell imo.

I think Jones has far more inside potential than Jetta. Respect your opinion, though. We shall see by the end of the year!

 

[doona]

Agree on most of that, except I think you have set too high a criteria on mid-pricers (300k+)
There are some players within the 300k mark that are awesome value picks (Roughead, O'Meara) but are unlikely to be top 6/7 in their position.
I wouldn't want to spend 400k on a player unless I was seriously confident they would be there at the end, which is why maybe Jones might be a better pick than Mills.

I guess its typical Guns and Rookies vs mid-pricers argument. You could argue that spending 300k on Jones is too much if he's not going to be there at the end, and you can save money on a rookie. The benefit of going mid-price however
1. Jones will likely score at least 20 points per week more than a rookie (55 vs 75 lets say)
2. Jones will reach a higher upgradable price before any rookie should
3. I would imagine Jones has a pretty confirmed job security

All players over 300k (200k) for that matter I have chosen as keepers. JOM (M8/M9), Nankervis (F7 to cover rucks) and Roughy F6 (forwards are lower average this year and he can be F6).

I am then running guns and rooks strategy bar those 3.

I may have to trade them moving forward but I don't want to select players like Swallow/Jones/Sandi/etc..... That don't have a purpose. 300k players can make money, but nothing like rooks can.

There is an argument Jones could be D7 comes season end but he is not as assured as JOM or could cover rucks like Nankervis

It allows me from the outset to choose players I know are top of their positions and will be.

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[doona]

No

More of a AFL Fantasy pick, can't see him doing enough to be a keeper.

Think Guthrie, Jetta etc, that's Jones in a nutshell imo.

Jones is going to be an inside mid that can play outside. He is nothing like Jetta mate

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[WCE1987]

Pretty set just confirming rookies. Thoughts?

 

[happy_eagle]

All players over 300k (200k) for that matter I have chosen as keepers. JOM (M8/M9), Nankervis (F7 to cover rucks) and Roughy F6 (forwards are lower average this year and he can be F6).

I am then running guns and rooks strategy bar those 3.

I may have to trade them moving forward but I don't want to select players like Swallow/Jones/Sandi/etc..... That don't have a purpose. 300k players can make money, but nothing like rooks can.

There is an argument Jones could be D7 comes season end but he is not as assured as JOM or could cover rucks like Nankervis

It allows me from the outset to choose players I know are top of their positions and will be.

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Some good points
What do you (and everyone) reckon will be the cutoff average for D6, M8, R2, F6 at the end of the season
For a quick guess i'd say
D6: 95
M8: 100
R2: 98
F6: 93

 

[doona]

happy_eagle I think I didn't respond to the jones argument and I think that Jones has 100% job security. My concern with him is he will play a week in the mids and get a ton, then a couple of weeks back and get 50's. I think that Heeney out he will have a higher scoring potential to when Heeney comes back in. With our injuries he has an opportunity to turn into a true mid and through performances force his way in.

Like my last post, the question is more Lloyd v jones + 170K. Lloyd wont cost me a trade, where as Jones most likely will.

I am actually curious to know if there are many players that turn a 50 average into a 90 average in one season? As most players have a few steps in between.

 

[go you pups]

Jones is going to be an inside mid that can play outside. He is nothing like Jetta mate

On Nexus 6P using BigFooty.com mobile app

Has speed though, something you guys don't have much of imo

Like what I compared him with Guthrie also, Guthrie is a capable mid/HB/wing type, but he's regularly used in roles that utilise his pace as Geelong didn't have much down back with Enright and co previously since Wojcinksi retired. At least Tuohy helps in that regard for them but he has a DT game himself. I haven't really seen much of a DT game previously with Jones.

 

[woofta]

Some good points
What do you (and everyone) reckon will be the cutoff average for D6, M8, R2, F6 at the end of the season
For a quick guess i'd say
D6: 95
M8: 100
R2: 98
F6: 93

Will be a lot more than 8 mids who ave 100+

 

[go you pups]

happy_eagle I think I didn't respond to the jones argument and I think that Jones has 100% job security. My concern with him is he will play a week in the mids and get a ton, then a couple of weeks back and get 50's. I think that Heeney out he will have a higher scoring potential to when Heeney comes back in. With our injuries he has an opportunity to turn into a true mid and through performances force his way in.

Like my last post, the question is more Lloyd v jones + 170K. Lloyd wont cost me a trade, where as Jones most likely will.

I am actually curious to know if there are many players that turn a 50 average into a 90 average in one season? As most players have a few steps in between.

Wouldn't be many imo, unless it was injury related keeping their scores low.

Many 65-75 types do however

 

[happy_eagle]

Will be a lot more than 8 mids who ave 100+

Yeh but how many sides last year finished with the exact Top 6 or 8 in each position
You could probably get away with the 10th or 12th best midfielder at M8 if they still average over 100
Could be the difference between someone that averages 100, and 101.3 it really doesn't matter

 

[CJApples87]

Pretty set just confirming rookies. Thoughts?View attachment 346721

I'm not a fan of Boyd this year. I think he'll get plenty of games off like he did in 2015. Last year he played a lot because he had to. He's also under an injury cloud, though should play.

The midfield is too light on. Six rookies is too much considering I don't think those Adelaide boys will get a run. You need one or both of O'Meara and Swallow in my opinion.

Devon Smith seems to have had his DT friendly game usurped by Toby Greene.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk