Kynge of Begrem
Norm Smith Medallist
Why do you take so much time betweeen updating your index?
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AFLW 2024 - Round 7 - Pride Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
My official betting thread
- Thread starter brett128
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- #1,402
The oldest and easiest thing in the world to do, is to criticise.
Rooster Cogburn
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I think you'll find that title belongs to prostitution 
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- #1,404
I think you'll find that title belongs to prostitution
Ah yes. The 2nd easiest and oldest then. Plus criticising is much cheaper.
Nothing
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- Jul 30, 2009
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You can get cheap prostitutes, or so I hear.
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Been busy steam chasing the **** out of Australian books to get a BR recharge. It's been working well until I've had my first restrictions today.
Week 16 NFL:
OAK +9.5 @ 55%
BUF +4.5 @ 60%
NO +1 @ 57%
NYG -1 @ 60%
CLE +13 @ 60%
SEA 0 @ 62%
NYJ -1 @ 57%
Week 16 NFL:
OAK +9.5 @ 55%
BUF +4.5 @ 60%
NO +1 @ 57%
NYG -1 @ 60%
CLE +13 @ 60%
SEA 0 @ 62%
NYJ -1 @ 57%
- Thread starter
- #1,408
Which pros are you talking about? I've NEVER come across a 'pro' that doesn't insist the NFL cannot be beaten. The only person that I've ever seen remarking that the NFL is not beatable was Ken Pomeroy. He should stick to what he knows (college baskets).
You can beat it at 55% AT LEAST.
We recently finished a pure HFA model of the NFL. HFA, being independent from game variables, means you can look at an aspect of the game that has remained relatively static year on year. It offers a good longitudinal insight to long term win %.
We have an NFL HFA database going back to 1970. Testing 2000-2011 out of sample, showed that we could more efficiently allocate HFA by about 1.25 points than the market (1.25 points was also the same figure in sample). On average, 1.25 points would equate to about 54% win %. That is JUST looking at HFA. A smoothed 1 season moving average showed a relatively stable win % also. The market didn't understand how HFA worked 40 years ago, and neither does it now.
Then we throw in models based on team performance and game variables, and you're pushing over 55%. Combining that with low vig -105 lines, and you're making good money.
asanque
Premium Platinum
How are you tracking with NFL alone this year?
I'm not sure how you went earlier this year, but weeks 15 and 16 aren't looking very good.
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I'm not taking any sides, I'm just being objective. Not defending, persecuting or raising anyone up. Just being objective.
Kynge of Begrem
Norm Smith Medallist
Why the delay between updating your index? Makes it hard for people to check back over plays to make sure you aren't fudging the figures...oh, never mind
- Mar 4, 2012
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Brett's Busy chasing tail!!
Yes.
somethingrandom
Team Captain
Kynge of Begrem
Norm Smith Medallist
...and?
ThePeanutGallery
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Today is Brett's favourite day.
New Index: 100
Afterall, everyone starts a new record at the start of the year don't they.
Go your hardest mate, see if you can get this one to last longer than 6 months. I hear there is a decent model doing the rounds.
New Index: 100
Afterall, everyone starts a new record at the start of the year don't they.
Go your hardest mate, see if you can get this one to last longer than 6 months. I hear there is a decent model doing the rounds.
http://www.latimes.com/sports/football/nfl/la-sp-nfl-betting-20130101,0,6526047.story
The way I read this, everyone made money on NFL this season. Even those not university-educated, as well as those whose only claim to fame is frequenting internet forums...
The way I read this, everyone made money on NFL this season. Even those not university-educated, as well as those whose only claim to fame is frequenting internet forums...
Actually, to me it gives a bit more credence to Brett's system perhaps not being that bad.
The public probably win on one in 10 (conservatively) seasons on any sport. You don't really want a system (sorry, model) that wins in this 1/10 year. You want something that's going to cash in on the more probable bookie winning seasons.
Of course, if you then have the arrogance to think your model is foolproof and foolishly bet fully kelly on it, well, we can all see those results.
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- #1,423
Yes agree with this... all very well to say "Kelly is the bankroll maximising optimal method", but that statement ASSUMES your probabilities of victory are 100% accurate... and in sports/racing forecasting, that's never the case.
Chism
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O.k.
I just went through the last few pages of this thread and if all you want to do is lay the boot into others and talk crap etc you will be off the board. If you do not like Bretts tips or cannot post constructively stay out of the thread. This is the only warning i am giving and it applies for every thread contained in this Sub board as well. ThePeanutGallery i am looking at you.
I just went through the last few pages of this thread and if all you want to do is lay the boot into others and talk crap etc you will be off the board. If you do not like Bretts tips or cannot post constructively stay out of the thread. This is the only warning i am giving and it applies for every thread contained in this Sub board as well. ThePeanutGallery i am looking at you.
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