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KardiniaPark said:
It's been like that for 58 pages :confused:
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If i was to clean up the whole thing the thread would no longer exist!

On a serious note play nice fellas. :thumbsu:
 
Chism said:
O.k.

I just went through the last few pages of this thread and if all you want to do is lay the boot into others and talk crap etc you will be off the board. If you do not like Bretts tips or cannot post constructively stay out of the thread. This is the only warning i am giving and it applies for every thread contained in this Sub board as well. ThePeanutGallery i am looking at you.
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That is fine, I take that onboard. I expect I am not the only one to be put off by Brett and his arrogance, but others might keep it to themselves. Keeping it to themselves helps no-one, as people who are tailing don't know the full score.

I do find it very ironic you phrased it as "if all you want to do is lay the boot into others and talk crap etc you will be off the board", for the simple fact that this is exactly Brett's MO. He joined laying the boots into others, others who he did not even know, but stereotyped massively, as losing punters.

The talking crap part has been found out over the last few months, as per his record.

But I do thank you Chism for the heads up. Appreciated.
 

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ThePeanutGallery said:
That is fine, I take that onboard. I expect I am not the only one to be put off by Brett and his arrogance, but others might keep it to themselves. Keeping it to themselves helps no-one, as people who are tailing don't know the full score.

I do find it very ironic you phrased it as "if all you want to do is lay the boot into others and talk crap etc you will be off the board", for the simple fact that this is exactly Brett's MO. He joined laying the boots into others, others who he did not even know, but stereotyped massively, as losing punters.

The talking crap part has been found out over the last few months, as per his record.

But I do thank you Chism for the heads up. Appreciated.
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No worries and the last thing we want to do is kick people off boards and Infract hence the warning. :thumbsu:

What people really need to is report posts etc as it is no use saying "others are doing this and i was just defending myself" etc etc, when we don't know about it and we all have lives and don't see everything that gets posted! Unless you report it, don't sook up about others breaking rules and being a pain in the arse when many posters that reply to crap do the exact same thing then complain after the fact when they are Infracted.

The board is here to help each other out , have a chat about punting and whatever else tickles your fancy punting related. If you see a thread that you can't reply maturely in or in good light hearted fashion just stay out of it and report anything suss and let us handle the crap. ;)
 
brett128 said:
And my proposition to Tants stands for anyone here: If you think I talk a whole lot of ****, i'm happy to take on anyone up to $10K in a season long ATS competition. We can start in a couple of months with the NFL, or wait for the NBA.
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will you do this for the AFL or the NRL?
 
CIN +4.5 @ 57%
SEA -3 @ 55%
BAL -7 @ 55%

Will update and look at all the posts here on Sunday night.
 
SEA +3 @ 60% ($1.85)
HOU +9.5 @ 57%

Long anticipated updates later this evening but probably tomorrow.
 
Cal Santa Barbara +15 @ 55% WIN
Long Beach State + 20 @ 55% LOSS
Vanderbilt + 11.5 @ 55% WIN
AR Little Rock + 20 @ 55% LOSS
NYK +7 @ 55% WIN
Maine +19 @ 55% LOSS
Akron +10.5 @ 55% LOSS
Nebraska Omaha +30.5 @ 55% WIN
North Dakota +15.5 @ 55% LOSS
STL AT BUF OVER 42 @ 55% LOSS
ARZ AT SEA UNDER 36 @ 55% LOSS
West Virginia -7 @ 55% LOSS
Binghamton +37.5 @ 55% WIN
Minnesota -14.5 @ 55% LOSS
LAC -3 @ 55% WIN
BKN +3.5 @ 55% WIN
WAS +5.5 @ 55% WIN
Oregon State -11 @ 55% LOSS
Fairfield -11 @ 55% WIN
Towson +18 @ 55% WIN
Savannah State +22.5 @ 55% LOSS
CHI +3 @ 55% WIN
LAC -8 @ 55% LOSS
DAL +6 @ 55% WIN
ORL +5 @ 55% LOSS
Fresno State +2.5 @ 55% LOSS
Wichita State h2h @ 57% LOSS
Idaho State +17 @ 55% WIN
NYK -5.5 @ 55% WIN
Charlotte University +7.5 @ 55% LOSS
Dayton -16.5 @ 57% WIN
Georgia Southern +17 @ 55% WIN
Texas State +16 @ 55% WIN
Canisius +20.5 @ 55% LOSS
Nebraska +13.5 @ 55% LOSS
East Carolina +16.5 @ 55% WIN
IUPUI +7.5 @ 55% WIN
Syracuse -20.5 @ 55% LOSS
ORL +1 @ 55% WIN
OAK +10.5 @ 55% LOSS
KC +7 @ 55% LOSS
SD +9.5 @ 57% WIN
TEN +5 @ 55% WIN
BUF -3 @ 60% LOSS
CIN -3.5 @ 60% LOSS
MIA +10.5 @ 57% LOSS
GB -6.5 @ 62% WIN
PHI +4.5 @ 55% LOSS
STL -1 @ 62% LOSS
TB +3.5 @ 60% LOSS
ARZ +6 @ 60% WIN
HOU -9.5 @ 55% WIN
CHI +3 @ 60% LOSS
JAC +8 @ 55% LOSS
CAR +3 @ 55% WIN
KC +3 @ 57% LOSS
NE -4 @ 62% LOSS
DEN AT BAL UNDER 48 @ 57% LOSS
OAK +9.5 @ 55% LOSS
BUF +4.5 @ 60% LOSS
NO +1 @ 57% WIN
NYG -1 @ 60% LOSS
CLE +13 @ 60% LOSS
SEA 0 @ 62% WIN
NYJ -1 @ 57% LOSS
WAS -4.5 57% WIN
ARZ +7 @ 57% (-115 @ Pinnacle) LOSS
BUF -3.5 @ 57% WIN
NE -10 @ 57% WIN
IND +7 @ 57% WIN
WAS -3.5 @ 55% WIN
GB -3.5 @ 60% LOSS
CAR +5 @ 55% WIN
ARZ +16.5 @ 60% WIN
SEA -10.5 @ 57% LOSS
CIN +4.5 @ 57% LOSS
SEA -3 @ 55% WIN
BAL -7 @ 55% WIN

37-40 for the period

60+% = 106-100-5 (0.514) Actual vs expected Z score: -2.54
57+% = 94-90-2 (0.511) Actual vs expected Z score: -1.63
55+% = 108-114-1 (0.487) Actual vs expected Z score: -1.90

Current Index Number: 14

308-304-8 (0.503)
 
Random question, can anyone list any square -110 books that do NCAAB?

I've outstayed my welcome with steam at a few Aussie books so far, but I can't really go less than $1.91 and still be profitable with the other books that offer NCAAB at $1.88 and the like.
 
brett128 said:
Random question, can anyone list any square -110 books that do NCAAB?

I've outstayed my welcome with steam at a few Aussie books so far, but I can't really go less than $1.91 and still be profitable with the other books that offer NCAAB at $1.88 and the like.
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You have lost 86% of your money, how on earth could you have outstayed your welcome? o_O
 

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Lenny29 said:
Actually, to me it gives a bit more credence to Brett's system perhaps not being that bad.

The public probably win on one in 10 (conservatively) seasons on any sport. You don't really want a system (sorry, model) that wins in this 1/10 year. You want something that's going to cash in on the more probable bookie winning seasons.

Of course, if you then have the arrogance to think your model is foolproof and foolishly bet fully kelly on it, well, we can all see those results.
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The betting public had their best year in over 10 years. Big square games this year (games with >75% of public money on one side of the line) had a positive fumble differential of +21. Splitting this over all these games means that the betting public games on average did about 54% ATS on all games with heavy public action.

My NFL results mirror this image with a net fumble differential of -22 (however this is over more games). I did around ~50% ATS on NFL this year, compared to 62% in 2011, which I don't think will ever happen again (I also had a positive fumble differential in 2011). This was related to the game being affected by the strike. Offenses maintained structures better than defenses, and so team power/power rankings became less compressed (and thus easier to predict).

Generally, if the betting public is doing well, no one else is.
 
brett128 said:
Yeah sure, just PM me and we'll sort something out. I'm happy to do this for AFL. I've been working daily on upgrading my AFL model since early November.
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Look forward to seeing your results.

Out of interest, why don't you do more NBA? I've only really been following it this year but it seems very beatable to me - I've spotted a bunch of severely mispriced lines over the course of the season. Seems bookies have a tough time quantifying effects of travel/schedules which I've noticed you've done a fair bit of work on as part of the WAFL model.
 
d3ft said:
Look forward to seeing your results.

Out of interest, why don't you do more NBA? I've only really been following it this year but it seems very beatable to me - I've spotted a bunch of severely mispriced lines over the course of the season. Seems bookies have a tough time quantifying effects of travel/schedules which I've noticed you've done a fair bit of work on as part of the WAFL model.
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Hhmm.... no it's not IMHO. The AFL can be well beaten, the NBA (like any other major American market) is tough, real tough. One thing I've learned from my steam chasing exploits is that if anything, the 'per-capita' ratio of steam signals to games is much higher in NCAAB. I think there's such an abundance of opportunities because I'm seeing syndicates/conference specialists who specialize in incorporating little known qualitative information to exploit lines that essentially have only been set using power ratings. This is not the case in the NBA.
 
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