iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,653
- AFL Club
- Carlton
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- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
It means you are a moron
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Glad you're oK, genuinely, and hope that whatever stopped you from posting for that recent period, it's all dissolved.
i thought getting up half an hour earlier than normal to get NBA bets on whilst centrebet are having this tremendous offer was bad gambler stuffWow.
That what you have (only) recently learnt about tout services has "blown your mind" says more about your naivete than anything else.
The tout will have plenty of business come his way. And he won't even have to bet Kelly.
That's because people like you do not really believe they can ever beat the market long term. When you don't believe you really can, you don't put in the effort. And effort is what seems to be evidently lacking around here from most people (bar I think Duritz and maybe a couple of others).
If you think you can look up a few ATS trends (useless in major international sports), check out a few previews, and read up up on a few forums, you are kidding yourself if you believe that modelling methodology has long term edge. Funnily enough I had a few meetings with a tout service that charge a substantial amount to its clientele, and as with the process as I described above, that was all they did (that actually blew my mind, they won't be in business for long).
If you ever listen to 2/5th's of f*ck all from what every chump had to say, you get no where in life.
That's because people like you do not really believe they can ever beat the market long term. When you don't believe you really can, you don't put in the effort. And effort is what seems to be evidently lacking around here from most people (bar I think Duritz and maybe a couple of others).
LOL. so unless i have all this textbook bullshit i can't have an edge? do me a favour then: use all these advanced models to tell me what the odds are that i can improve my bankroll 23x over 5 years just via dumb luckI either have built, am building, or know how to build everything that you could build yourself, so lay it on.
Regression models, logistic regression models, discriminant analysis, MCMC models, neural networks, decision trees, SVM's, naive Bayesian methodologies, vector based approaches, short term ATS approaches, situational ATS approaches, HFA approaches, the list goes on.
i don't profess to have an enormous edge but i frame my own markets using a combination of gut feel (low), accumulated data based on the season thus far and historical H2H type data and appear to have at least a small edge. by taking best odds across a series of books each game's market is around 101-102% anyway so it doesn't take an enormous edge to be profitable
there's also been mathematically taking advantage of bookie offers etc but that's understandably drying up
like i said, bad gambler stuff. why do you need to crush the market? why do you need to bend the market to your will? especially since you need to focus so intently on it that its to the detriment of your social life?Yeah sure, a person with a sharp mind and a little bit of rational investigation can exist on the periphery of the sports betting world, taking advantages of mis-priced props, other derivatives with small limits, bonus chasing, promos, steam chasing, etc. I am doing that too. I attack props with small limits all the time on US sports, I steam chase, I do a lot of these 'peripheral activities', and I can get by fine just doing that. There is no denying you likely have that capability yourself.
But you will never crush the main markets with big liquidity, and you will never bend the market to your will through the sheer weight of your bankroll. That is my goal, and I don't stop something until I achieve what I've set out to achieve.
LOL. so unless i have all this textbook bullshit i can't have an edge? do me a favour then: use all these advanced models to tell me what the odds are that i can improve my bankroll 23x over 5 years just via dumb luck
there is precisely one person in this thread that thinks he has some sort of special ability. this person has demonstrated how to lose a sizable chunk of his bankroll doing exactly what those with no special ability warned against (betting full kelly)Do you understand how to assess your performance in terms of standard deviation from an expected population of results? Again if you don't know what I'm talking about, you really are kidding yourself if you think you have some sort of special ability.
like i said, bad gambler stuff. why do you need to crush the market? why do you need to bend the market to your will? especially since you need to focus so intently on it that its to the detriment of your social life?
my goal, FWIW, is to pay off my mortgage via punting. a long way off but as the bankroll slowly grows and the mortgage slowly decreases, they will eventually meet. how does going "heh heh, my bet changed the markets from -3.5 to -4.5, **** i'm awesome" improve your life?
there is precisely one person in this thread that thinks he has some sort of special ability. this person has demonstrated how to lose a sizable chunk of his bankroll doing exactly what those with no special ability warned against (betting full kelly)
****ing LOL after how this thread has turned outWhy do you skirt all my questions? Is it because you can't answer any of them?
I'm not sure "bending the market" to ones will is really possible. Say you price up a team at 1.50 h2h and the market is 2.20, to back it to the point where you bend the market to your will is to back it right down to about 1.60. Problem is, it's not likely that your 1.50 assessment is accurate. Perhaps it'sreally a 2.0 chance. You have an edge at 2.20, 2.10 etc but if you're still backing it at 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, on the basis of your 1.50 assessment then you're really taking unders.