My official betting thread

[brett128]

Doesn't a half win suggest you are returning half a dividend, as in a dead heat situation?

By your logic, 0-0-100 would be a 50% win rate, which doesn't seem right.

It's 50%.

Cover ATS = 1
Half win ATS = 0.75
Push ATS = 0.5
Half Loss ATS = 0.25
Loss ATS = 0

Half wins and half losses ATS only usually come into play when handicap betting on soccer. I.e: Lines in increments of '0.25'. ie: +0.25 or -1.75 etc.

 

[Borgsta]

I've never heard anyone count a push that way.

 

[Princess Wafflewaffle]

West coast -16.5 1 unit @$2.02 Betfair
Kangaroos -48.5 1 unit @1.98 Betfair

 

[brett128]

I've never heard anyone count a push that way.

I've never met or heard anyone that doesn't count a push in that way.

Even the most 'prestigious' ATS contest on the planet (the LVH NFL handicapper's contest) counts a push as '0.5' towards your total score.

 

[brett128]

Melbourne vs Penrith UNDER 42.5 @ 57% (Centrebet)

I'm down on this now before it moves to 42.

 

[brett128]

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne UNDER 191.5 @ 55%

 

[Princess Wafflewaffle]

Posting from my phone

Nth over 40, collingwood +7.5 Brisbane +43.5 0.5 units @$2.27
Nth bulldogs over 175.5 * he's port under 192.5 1 unit @ $1.91
Collingwood +7.5 brisbane +31.5 nth melb win. 3 units @ $1.85

 

[brett128]

GWS vs PORT UNDER 182.5 @ 57%

 

[brett128]

Knights +4 @ 55%

 

[brett128]

Sharks +7.5 @ 62%

(Or 60% at +7 if you can get it)

I could do a very similar write up on this game as per last week. All components of the model are looking towards a Sharks cover.

 

[madpunter]

Hi Brett,

Interested in your thoughts early on re the GWS vs PORT game... I have it miles different to the market, which has the line at +46.5 GWS.

FWIW... I didn't actually have GWS winning! The line was never in danger though.

Love their theme song...

 

[brett128]

Chiefs vs Sharks UNDER 42.5 @ 55%

 

[Princess Wafflewaffle]

Sharks +7.5 @ 62%

(Or 60% at +7 if you can get it)

I could do a very similar write up on this game as per last week. All components of the model are looking towards a Sharks cover.

Tailing this for 1.5 units. Sharks +7.5 @$2 tab

Lol didn't even get a sweat on his game. I am not a rugby expert but the chiefs negative defensive tactics were laughable and the fact the umpires let it go killed the contest

 

[robstewart23]

I was sure the bulldogs would cover the line today, which I got at 52.5. They had 17 more inside 50's than north in first half. Lake the ******* gives away a free and Petrie kicks a goal after the siren in the third quarter and WB kicked 8.13 for the game. Result - lose by 54. FFS!!!

 

[brett128]

I got them at the QTR time line so I fortunately covered.

 

[brett128]

North Queensland -2 @ 60%
North Queensland OVER 41.5 @ 60% (Centrebet)

 

[brett128]

St Kilda +15.5 @ 60%

 

[brett128]

Brisbane vs Richmond OVER 189.5 @ 55%

 

[brett128]

Brisbane +9.5 @ 57%

 

[madpunter]

Brett you seem to have fixed %'s for your predictions. EG, how come nothing is ever 58%?

 

[brett128]

Hawthorn -21.5/-22.5 @ 62% LOSS
Western Bulldogs 1st QTR ONLY +11.5 @ 60% WIN
GWS 1st QTR ONLY +12.5 @ 60% WIN
Fremantle +17.5 @ 58% WIN
Hawthorn vs Geelong OVER 188.5 @ 57% WIN
Collingwood vs St Kilda OVER 188.5 @ 55% LOSS
Roosters +5 @ 55% WIN
Roosters vs Dragons UNDER 40.5 @ WIN
Melbourne vs Penrith UNDER 42.5 @ 57% (Centrebet) LOSS
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne UNDER 191.5 @ 55% WIN
GWS vs PORT UNDER 182.5 @ 57% WIN
Knights +4 @ 55% LOSS
Sharks +7.5 @ 62% LOSS
Chiefs vs Sharks UNDER 42.5 @ 55% LOSS
North Queensland -2 @ 60% LOSS
North Queensland OVER 41.5 @ 60% (Centrebet) LOSS
St Kilda +15.5 @ 60% WIN
Brisbane vs Richmond OVER 189.5 @ 55% WIN
Brisbane +9.5 @ 57% LOSS

10-9 so far this weekend

68-67-1 all up

 

[brett128]

Brett you seem to have fixed %'s for your predictions. EG, how come nothing is ever 58%?

I'm inclined to bet them in brackets for two reasons:

1. If it's anywhere between one win % grade and another, that acts as a sort win % 'buffer' in case i've overestimated win %.

2. When time pressure is on with very late betting activity, I know how to size these plays (simultaneously or not) without having to use a Kelly calculator.

 

[Jan Juc]

Post #415

 

[brett128]

Cronulla +6.5 @ 60%

 

[brett128]

NZ vs Cronulla UNDER 40.5 @ 55%