My official betting thread

[Lensen]

Well yes you are dodging questions.

apart from the questions about "have you considered the derivatives of the z axis" zzzz type stuff, which I've already said I'm vaguely aware of the concepts, but have no idea about implementing them, what questions have I dodged? I've already argued that you don't need all of these textbook concepts to be able to have a winning edge

It all depends on what odds you have been taking, the amount of bets, and your inferred win % on these bets, etc. You send me your betting history (if you do actually have an assigned probability of winning), and I'll tell you how far it deviates from chance.

Please don't waste my time with BS scenarios, this only requires a very basic knowledge of the normal distribution. The last 'challenge' I got was this harebrained example about backing and laying off peanut, who thinks he can make money out of thin air.

ffs you need to model everything down to the nth degree, just give me a ballpark figure of a zero edge bettor beating the market every year for 5 years and growing a bankroll 23x. use 10 bets a week of between 1-3% of bank if you like (i've bet up to 5% but they are rare)

in any case, all of this is moving away from my original point that you've reached "bad gambler" stage by putting punting ahead of everything else in your life. that this has coincided with a ~80% reduction in your bankroll gives an indication you're obsessing about it. it's not healthy.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Dude, I took literally $20 when starting off playing SHNL Hold Em' online, and 3 years later had $70K in my accounts (18 months of which was full time work).

70k for three years work, half of which was fulltime? Dude, you would make a better income working at KFC.

 

[DavidPhantom]

I think he means, He got the $70K (gambling) even though he wasn't gambling exclusively the whole time as he had a job for 18 months?

 

[Dominion]

Brett I've got a question, I figure you woulda looked at this sorta stuff...

Say an afl game is priced at 1.20 vs 4.80, and I KNOW (ie assume I'm right) that 4.80 is too high (or alternatively 1.20 is too high, not just talking about outsiders). Without knowing anything about what a fair head start would be for the outsider, can I just assume a bet on the spread is +ve if a bet on the ML is? Or are there actually situations where say a team that wins 2/9 is priced at $5 but doesn't get enough +points at the line?

 

[Duritz]

Brett I've got a question, I figure you woulda looked at this sorta stuff...

Say an afl game is priced at 1.20 vs 4.80, and I KNOW (ie assume I'm right) that 4.80 is too high (or alternatively 1.20 is too high, not just talking about outsiders). Without knowing anything about what a fair head start would be for the outsider, can I just assume a bet on the spread is +ve if a bet on the ML is? Or are there actually situations where say a team that wins 2/9 is priced at $5 but doesn't get enough +points at the line?

My answer would be: you can assume.

 

[balmainforever]

I'm yet to see the complete "fool-proof" model to beating the bookies.
Don't think i will or anyone ever will.

 

[Duritz]

I'm yet to see the complete "fool-proof" model to beating the bookies.
Don't think i will or anyone ever will.

If people had it, why would they be showing you?

 

[stuziman]

If people had it, why would they be showing you?

Hehe

 

[balmainforever]

....and why would they be on this website for???

 

[Duritz]

....and why would they be on this website for???

Because it's fun of course, and - wait, I mean, no, they wouldn't. Definitely not.

 

[brett128]

I'll address some of these questions later. I'm busy.

As to my spelling/grammar, I actually did my undergrad in Business/Arts and did very well. I can read and write the Queen's English just fine. Geez I didn't know I was so beholden to my captivated audience!

Apologies for not monitoring my posts, but when you're doing about five different things at once (ie. working), vigilance does tend to slip.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I think he means, He got the $70K (gambling) even though he wasn't gambling exclusively the whole time as he had a job for 18 months?

Which begs the question what was he doing for the other 18 months? Either way my point stands.

 

[KardiniaPark]

So basically (keep it basic i dont understand all that yz stuff) you lost 86% of your bank? Is it even possible to come back from that? If you had a really good AFL season (or even one as expected) where would your bank be in percentage terms? You are a bit of a w***er but you have also been riled up a bit...good luck with the AFL.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

So basically (keep it basic i dont understand all that yz stuff) you lost 86% of your bank? Is it even possible to come back from that? If you had a really good AFL season (or even one as expected) where would your bank be in percentage terms? You are a bit of a Moo but you have also been riled up a bit...good luck with the AFL.

This is what I don't get. this guy is slagging off people who win, on the basis that they haven't won over a long enough period. YET, he has lost 86 per cent of his money. seriously wtf?

 

[Duritz]

There's a very good reason I'm not potting Brett like others are... I know lots are pissed off at him for arrogance, and probably rightly so, but I don't think someone who puts their balls on the line like he has/is, deserves to be potted.

It takes a shitload of guts to punt for a living, and make it. Not many do. Brett hasn't yet, but I will never pot someone for trying. It's a wonderful goal, but a bloody hard one to achieve.

Also, he's human. He's going through this on his own, trying to solve this thing. It's hard, and he's human. Very easy to sling mud. Harder to say, "I'm leaving work, and punting for a living."

Think about that. It's a big bloody step.

 

[Lensen]

There's a very good reason I'm not potting Brett like others are... I know lots are pissed off at him for arrogance, and probably rightly so, but I don't think someone who puts their balls on the line like he has/is, deserves to be potted.

It takes a shitload of guts to punt for a living, and make it. Not many do. Brett hasn't yet, but I will never pot someone for trying. It's a wonderful goal, but a bloody hard one to achieve.

Also, he's human. He's going through this on his own, trying to solve this thing. It's hard, and he's human. Very easy to sling mud. Harder to say, "I'm leaving work, and punting for a living."

Think about that. It's a big bloody step.

And if he started posting here with the attitude "this is what im doing what do you think" not "I know everything bow before me peasants" he'd probably not cop anything

 

[Duritz]

And if he started posting here with the attitude "this is what im doing what do you think" not "I know everything bow before me peasants" he'd probably not cop anything

Do unto others? Would you want to be slammed like he's been if you'd acted similarly?

 

[Lensen]

Do unto others? Would you want to be slammed like he's been if you'd acted similarly?

I expect that if I put myself in a position where I portray superiority and belittle others that some schadenfreude would come my way if it went to shit

 

[Duritz]

I expect that if I put myself in a position where I portray superiority and belittle others that some schadenfreude would come my way if it went to shit

And if it did, would you want others to slam you for it? Or, given that you'd be so clearly aware of your error, would you prefer that they were more polite, and allowed you to learn from your mistake without ridicule?

 

[Lensen]

And if it did, would you want others to slam you for it? Or, given that you'd be so clearly aware of your error, would you prefer that they were more polite, and allowed you to learn from your mistake without ridicule?

I'd never like to be slammed for anything but I don't put myself in the position for it to come my way. Id also show some semblance of admitting I was too boastful and conceited which hasn't happened either

 

[Duritz]

I'd never like to be slammed for anything but I don't put myself in the position for it to come my way. Id also show some semblance of admitting I was too boastful and conceited which hasn't happened either

Yes, and I'd be the same way, or at least I like to think I would... But this is a bloke getting slammed en masse in a very typical example of bullying... the guy has acted like a knob, no doubt, but he doesn't deserve to be slammed, and what internet hero's have to remember is, would they act this way in real life, and would they want to be treated this way, in real life.

Not my normal kind of shit, I know, but the group bullying on internet forums annoys me.

Edit: maybe it's because I have 4 bloody daughters... last thing I want is to be hunting down some pimple infested keyboard warrior.

2nd edit: And I wouldn't bloody have to - my older brother is ex SAS in the Aus army, so any of your freak children come hitting on my girls, I'm getting my SAS brother onto them, RIGHT!!!??11111

 

[KardiniaPark]

A/S/L of your daughters?

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

I either have built, am building, or know how to build everything that you could build yourself, so lay it on.

Regression models, logistic regression models, discriminant analysis, MCMC models, neural networks, decision trees, SVM's, naive Bayesian methodologies, vector based approaches, short term ATS approaches, situational ATS approaches, HFA approaches, the list goes on.

is it just me or is Brett chanelling Hudson from Aliens?

'I'm ready, man, check it out. I am the ultimate badass! State of the badass art! You do NOT wanna f--k with me. Check it out! Hey Ripley, don't worry. Me and my squad of ultimate badasses will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a city with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... '

 

[Lensen]

A/S/L of your daughters?

Would've thought the s part of the equation to be redundant

 

[Duritz]

A/S/L of your daughters?

The oldest is 8..........



(Ringing the police as we speak...)