Mythbuster - Blues will struggle without Fev

[Moss Rocket]

Find it interesting that everyone seems to think we will be stuffed without Fev.
Just checked out the stats from the 13 wins we had in 2009. We would have won 9 of them if Fev had not even troubled the scorers. That's right in 9 of our wins, Fevs contribution was less than our winning margin.
The other 4 games, i think we would have won three of them if Fev wasnt there. Defeated Lions by 19 (Fev 5 goals), Freo by 15 (Fev 3 goals) and North by 10 (Fev 5 goals)
Brisbane win by 6 points when Fev kicked 8 would have been a loss.
Certainly interesting stats.

 

[Collingwood 4 eternity]

There is the Blues slogan for 2010

"They think we'll be stuffed without Fev"

 

[BlueTouchPaper]

Yes I too fail to see how losing the premier FF of the competition will harm our chances!

 

[LJ Garner]

They're not that interesting... Carlton without Fev...

Think Bulldogs of 09, except weaker backline, weaker midfield and weaker forward line.

He may not have contributed on the scoreboard, but one thing Fev has done plenty of was chasing, being the large target, allowing crumbers to do their work.

If you're delivery skills were as sharp as the Dogs, yeh we'd all agree that you're not stuffed... But they're not, and you don't have a tall target...

 

[chop_me]

Great thread

Myth busted... yay!

 

[deledio7]

Don't kid yourself mate.

 

[Quinz]

So you'd win 40% of your games without Fev? Fair enough.

 

[Duskfire]

Its not just about the goals though, its about Fev taking the best defender. Its about Fev being the focus of every opposition team you play. Now the likes of Lake, Scarlett, Glass etc etc will play on... I dont even know who Fevs replacement is meant to be. Waite? It has so much more to it then kicking goals, although that didnt hurt.

I think Carlton made a good move and will help them in the long run. But I cant see it not being at least bad for a season or two.

 

[jonoman89]

We will miss him no doubt, but probably not as massively as some expect. It's not like we are minusing 90 goals from our total tally. Someone like Waite could kick 40-50 from FF, so we're only minusing about 40 or so goals in total.

Plus factor in the improvement in the midfield and defence to further close the gap.

 

[Donakebab]

Clearly ignoring the fact that he takes the best defender (or 2) week in week out.

Long term not having Fev will help as the team will benefit from not having a one dimentional forward line. Short term, will struggle, especially with your next best forward Waite coming back from a knee reco.

 

[The Panther]

Pencil them in for 10 wins at max.

 

[hawks_time]

You fail to realise that Fev demanded the most attention from defenders in your side, take him out and there's a more even spread amongst your more 2nd class forwards (compared to Fev).
Also you don't just take out a Coleman medalist from your side and think you're going to be just as well off.

 

[Bosk]

Pencil them in for 10 wins at max.

That's being a tad generous I think. Have you looked at what remains of their forward line?

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

Find it interesting that everyone seems to think we will be stuffed without Fev.
Just checked out the stats from the 13 wins we had in 2009. We would have won 9 of them if Fev had not even troubled the scorers. That's right in 9 of our wins, Fevs contribution was less than our winning margin.
The other 4 games, i think we would have won three of them if Fev wasnt there. Defeated Lions by 19 (Fev 5 goals), Freo by 15 (Fev 3 goals) and North by 10 (Fev 5 goals)
Brisbane win by 6 points when Fev kicked 8 would have been a loss.
Certainly interesting stats.

So, all else being equal, Carlton will win 9 games in 2010. Hurrah!

Realistically, I think there will be a period of serious adjustment for Carlton- it is not only about the goals fev kicks, he is just absolutely fundamental to your structure, and everyone in the side is going to have to dramatically adapt to that. This will probably set Carlton back a few years whilst the list adapts, but long term, you got a decent deal and you will be okay - just means your run will come a few seasons later

If god really wanted to smite you down, (and the good lord knows, I pray for such things daily) he would have Waite reinjure his knee. Then things would get very very hairy in your kpp lineup for the foreseeable future.

 

[Rustin Cohle]

I hear that Judd will be playing full forward next year. He'll also play in the midfield. He might spend a bit of time in defence, too.

Tim Lane will love it:

"Judd spoils, handballs to Judd, kicks long to JUDDY!!! Ah, a little too much on the kick there from the champ, Judd picks up the loose ball, snaps for a... Behind."

 

[BABYBOMBERS2007]

Surely this thread must be a joke

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Find it interesting that everyone seems to think we will be stuffed without Fev.
Just checked out the stats from the 13 wins we had in 2009. We would have won 9 of them if Fev had not even troubled the scorers. That's right in 9 of our wins, Fevs contribution was less than our winning margin.
The other 4 games, i think we would have won three of them if Fev wasnt there. Defeated Lions by 19 (Fev 5 goals), Freo by 15 (Fev 3 goals) and North by 10 (Fev 5 goals)
Brisbane win by 6 points when Fev kicked 8 would have been a loss.
Certainly interesting stats.

So, without Fev, Carlton wouldn't have made the finals?

Nice!

 

[HFF]

In trouble.

That's all I have to say.

 

[Invigoration]

I'm sure that is how it works, just simply take out his scoring contribution from the total and you're done!
I'm sure the fact that something like 70% of ball goes through him might make a difference, scoring assists and simply bringing the ball to ground.
The losses you guys have will now be significantly worse as well which will obviously have an effect overall (percentage, moral etc). Things like Fevola kicking 8 against the Hawks, you would have been smashed without him.

How do you figure you would have won the NM game if you won by 10 points and Fev kicked 5? You probably would have lostt he game against WC as well without Fev's contribution of 6 goals, it is all well and good to win by 40 with your FF firing, take out his contribution and the rest of the team can't ski as much.
You left out the Richmond game you won by 20 odd points with Fev kicking 9 as well.

I think that makes boil down to 8 wins before worrying about where that 70% of ball is going to go, leaves you about the same as NM, so congrats.... You won't struggle at all.
Comparing to your 8 years before this one, it'll probably be considered a huge win for the club.

 

[EagleMan87]

I remember a bunch of threads similar to this when Cousins and Judd left West Coast.

Seriously, it's one thing to win a game or two without a star, but to no longer have them at your club at all is completely different.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Will miss the finals IMO.

Like others said, its not just the goals he kicks, but he made opposition defences accountable, their other forwards are going to cop attention that they just aren't used to. Henderson isn't ready to play 22 games a year... can you imagine blokes like Cloke, Fisher and O'hAilpin being manned by Scarlett, Lake, Merrett, Rutten, Glass, Bolton, Bock etc...

Unless the AFL gifts them a chariot ride for the first 3 rounds, they very well could be 0-3 when Judd comes back in. That is a long way back without your Coleman medallist and trying to implement a new forward structure on the run.

The Blues are going to go backwards again before they go forwards.

 

[WaltzingMatera]

I remember a bunch of threads similar to this when Cousins and Judd left West Coast.

Seriously, it's one thing to win a game or two without a star, but to no longer have them at your club at all is completely different.

I was about to write the same thing.

The snowball effect can be massive. Carlton supporters should have their fingers and toes crossed and hope for a par season. It appears more likely that Carlton will fall off a cliff than do any challenging next year.

 

[Donakebab]

 

[cradle of filth]

Unless we see a more focussed and disciplined Carlton in light of the Fev booting, i think it's more than likely that this will hurt the blues next year. I'm not saying that they will completely drop off the pace,(they already have enough young and improving players to keep them on track) but there were quite a few games that Carlton won because of Fevola's influence. I guess the real concern is that without him, Carlton probably have the worst forward line in the AFL. That's something that's going to be hard to make up for.

In the long run i think getting rid of Fevola will help Carlton, but with no obvious replacements as early as next year, it's going to hurt for a while.

 

[Makka]

Of course losing a Coleman Medalist will have no effect on the team!