Preview Next 5 games

[Bigger]

Thats a tough run. Four of those clubs are in the fight for the 8 and maybe even also port. No free lunch these days.

I reckon 12 wins + percentage gets you in 8 and 16 wins means the top four.

I have talked about this elsewhere. There's plenty of predictive models out there that has a team missing out the 8 with 13 wins.

We need to win 14 to even be certain of being in the 8.

All 4 home games will do it, but we are playing at Marvel for all of the away, so why not dream big.

#DoItForDave

 

[SiempreFreo]

How big a factor will be wet (and cold) weather in Melbourne?

The Tiges-Blues game has just started & from the look of things the ball weighs a ton - game seems treacly.

 

[dockerfemme]

How big a factor will be wet (and cold) weather in Melbourne?

The Tiges-Blues game has just started & from the look of things the ball weighs a ton - game seems treacly.

All our Melbourne games are under the roof at Marvel.

 

[Madas]

How big a factor will be wet (and cold) weather in Melbourne?

The Tiges-Blues game has just started & from the look of things the ball weighs a ton - game seems treacly.

TBH they played a lot better footy with a wet ball than we do
Scary stuff !

 

[Belnakor]

Blues are struggling with personnel, may go down to Tigers tonight then us the following week.

We have a terrible record against the blues and not much better against the saints. If we can split those two we will be in business.

Voss is coaching Carlton like Ross Lyon - it’s all about effort so they are losing steam in the 2nd half of the year which is good too. But still a very tough game.

 

[sumavich]

Lost the first, win the next 4.
Beat Port, beat Saints, beat Swans and then Richmond at Marvel.
Not a Top 4 side after today though, too many got beat

 

[StingBitten]

It's not looming as likely the next 8 weeks could go anywhere.

Much more looking like a 5-8 side with the very tough draw we have remaining and the young side, I'd take it but jesus the idea of a double-chance was looking good.

Hope we can get bounce back quickly.

 

[hoss]

Lost the first, win the next 4.
Beat Port, beat Saints, beat Swans and then Richmond at Marvel.
Not a Top 4 side after today though, too many got beat

I think if we win the next 4, we have every right to consider ourselves one of the teams playing for top 4. Still some winnable games after the next four and like us, competing sides to us will also face each other.

On Pixel 4a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[sumavich]

Unfortunately I can’t see us beating Saints now. Was a big loss to Carlton, really set us back

 

[SPEEDWAGON]

Saints were outplayed, Carlton should have put them away in q3

 

[Purple Jesus]

Unfortunately I can’t see us beating Saints now. Was a big loss to Carlton, really set us back

I didn't see anything scary about how the Saints played that tbh.

 

[Freomaniac]

V Carlton Marvel -50/50
V Port Optus - Should win.
V Saints Marvel -50/50
V Swans Optus -50/50
V Tigers Marvel - We need to win this one.

I got similar thoughts.

I hope it's 3 wins out of 5. hoping to beat port and swans at home. Then either saints or tigers away.

 

[Freomaniac]

I have talked about this elsewhere. There's plenty of predictive models out there that has a team missing out the 8 with 13 wins.

We need to win 14 to even be certain of being in the 8.

All 4 home games will do it, but we are playing at Marvel for all of the away, so why not dream big.

#DoItForDave

If we win 3 out of the next 5, don't care who it is, it will be immense.

That means 13-5 record. 12-6 won't be bad either.

Just means we need to nail those games vs West coast and GWS.

 

[Madas]

Unfortunately I can’t see us beating Saints now. Was a big loss to Carlton, really set us back

We’ll beat the saints

 

[freo_leo29]

We’ll beat the saints

Saints at marvel though, we couldnt manage Carlton at marvel

I think marvel doesn't really suit us under JL, much prefer the MCG

 

[arsesmart]

Saints at marvel though, we couldnt manage Carlton at marvel

I think marvel doesn't really suit us under JL, much prefer the MCG

I wouldn't be reading too much into our form at Marvel from that last game against Carltoon, especially given some of the potential confounding variables at play. Also, we're 1 & 1 at Marvel this season.

Then there's the fact that we're going back after only two weeks, which I think always helps to neutralise the away ground factor by degrees.

 

[gungho]

Tough run home but confident about the top 4 when you consider that we should win the last 2 games against Eagles and GWS.
Normally 15 wins will get you a top 4 finish but think it might be 16 needed this year. If you consider we already have 11, then all we need is to win 3 of the next 5. Reckon anything could happen if we make the top 4.

 

[salim malik]

3 more wins should give us a home final and 4 wins top 4.

 

[King Huskii]

3 more wins should give us a home final and 4 wins top 4.

Hope so

I hate that Freo travel on.a 6 day break to play a rested Saints on 8 days without travel factor

Gotta love equality

 

[Fyfe! The Musical]

I have talked about this elsewhere. There's plenty of predictive models out there that has a team missing out the 8 with 13 wins.

We need to win 14 to even be certain of being in the 8.

All 4 home games will do it, but we are playing at Marvel for all of the away, so why not dream big.

#DoItForDave

All predictive models tend to herd around the mean, this is a result of models assigning half a win to each team in a 50/50 game. As the season goes on and the wins are achieved, the models start to skew more. Even the most pessimistic model for North's fortunes would have predicted around 4-5 wins. They aren't going to get that.

Squiggle and other models now have 9th finishing on 12 wins.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Had a few goes at the ladder predictor trying to account for different results and every time a team missed out on 13-9. We need a minimum 3 more wins out of the 7 just to guarantee finals. Teams like Collingwood and Richmond have very soft runs.

Strange year coming off last year where both 7th and 8th had 11 wins.

 

[Freomaniac]

Hope so

I hate that Freo travel on.a 6 day break to play a rested Saints on 8 days without travel factor

Gotta love equality

Sad thing despite their loss to Richmond, west coast are becoming semi competitive.

Eagles might get one more home win from now until the end of the season. Just hope it's not the Derby

 

[Mogumber]

We'll have too much to play for, toast not so much.
Reckon we win, but it won't be a gimmee!
We are just playing ok at present, not Top 4 atm

 

[88mph]

We'll have too much to play for, toast not so much.
Reckon we win, but it won't be a gimmee!
We are just playing ok at present, not Top 4 atm

Port was playing like an elimination final and we can expect that for most of the remaining games given how tight the 8 is.

Good training for the actual finals.