Prediction Rd 5 Changes vs Port

[Superkoops]

WAFL level wise I think he dominated last weekend and finally showed he’s capable taps aside.

He dominated taps but didn’t dominate around the ground at all. Peel got smashed on the spread.

Reidy had every right to dominate ruck taps. The main ruck for Subiaco is 194cm and 84kg (Kody Eaton). They then also used Borchett and Mayo for support.

Reidy dominated ruck taps and was ok around the ground. His mobility after the ruck contest is my biggest issue. He will get slaughtered by Soldo and Dixon.

I guess the match committee felt he played well enough to earn a late call-up but he would be on standby really.

 

[freo_leo29]

If expected score mattered we'd be the 2013 premiers.

The Dees took their chances, but Port absolutely smashed them in every stat and still lost and they have history in that space. They have an amazing record against bottom 10 teams under Hinkley and a toilet one against top 8 and especially top 4 teams.

I'm not changing my opinion until they actually beat a decent volume of top 8 and top 4 teams. Until then, I've got them in the flat track category.

It's fair but that is still an massive outlier on expected scores, they'd win that game like 8/10 times if all the shots were retaken

It's obviously not everything but yeah


I'm more worried about our AO history against port 0/6 and 3/8 against other teams, not a great record

 

[Joao]

It's fair but that is still an massive outlier on expected scores, they'd win that game like 8/10 times if all the shots were retaken

It's obviously not everything but yeah


I'm more worried about our AO history against port 0/6 and 3/8 against other teams, not a great record

Yeah that's the thing about flat trackers, you know what we'll get from Port.

I don't have nearly as much confidence with predicting our performance. We don't turn up and they'll flat track us (like the Bombers), if we do it's game on.

I don't expect us to beat Port even if we play well. Missing too many important players for that.

 

[Nothing]

Sounds like we started copping it around the same time.

 

[Purple Suit]

I'm confident with this one. I feel like two games in a row on the same deck and the bonding experience with the umpire shafting will have us come out breathing fire.

The who said what last week cup.

 

[Madas]

It's fair but that is still an massive outlier on expected scores, they'd win that game like 8/10 times if all the shots were retaken

It's obviously not everything but yeah


I'm more worried about our AO history against port 0/6 and 3/8 against other teams, not a great record

Carlton were 0-7
Just saying

 

[freo_leo29]

Carlton were 0-7
Just saying

Yeah and they beat us who were like 3/13

We really should have beaten them


Carlton weren't playing Port or Crows who have good home records...

 

[Madas]

Yeah and they beat us who were like 3/13

We really should have beaten them


Carlton weren't playing Port or Crows who have good home records...

Fair enough
I’m digging for something because I got nothing
Could be one of those Dockery , against all odds wins though but I doubt it .

 

[ignoramus]

It's fair but that is still an massive outlier on expected scores, they'd win that game like 8/10 times if all the shots were retaken

It's obviously not everything but yeah


I'm more worried about our AO history against port 0/6 and 3/8 against other teams, not a great record

I personally never put much stock in these super specific win-loss records. AO has had football since 2014. We've been a bottom 8 team from 2016 to 2021, with Port better over that period, and Adelaide better for parts of it. HGA to the SA teams and travel for Freo are always going to give the SA teams an edge all other things being equal.

Not in the least saying we're going to romp it in tomorrow (though it remains possible), but if we lose, it's not because there's something about AO specifically, putatively revealed in our win-loss record over the last 10 years, that makes it harder than, say, the MCG.