Prediction Nick Daicos: The statistic that could prevent him from winning the Brownlow Medal .
- Thread starter Aristotle Pickett
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Personally I don't think so. Not that long ago other types of players - forwards and defenders - could actually get votes. Not anymore. The endless obsession with stats has meant those who get the most are the ones who get by far the most attention.
- Jul 13, 2015
- 38,629
- 43,771
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Even 30 years ago you needed to kick 8 goals to get a vote.
Lockett won on a low number of votes after a huge season. And still had to share it.
Dunstall and Hudson never won it - but both had votes taken by other Hawks.
- Mar 26, 2015
- 12,683
- 23,075
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Melb Tigers, Bendigo Braves, Aussie NBA
I actually think Bont could almost fall into this category.
Libba is the main one who will take votes off him, but he traditionally hasn't been a big vote getter. 2013 was his biggest haul, with 14 votes (Bulldogs highest vote getter, ironically the year before Bont arrived). Other than that, he's never polled more than 7 votes.
- Jul 13, 2015
- 38,629
- 43,771
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Or some sneaky at GCS or GWS. Greene probably doesnt get the votes he deserves so it opens the door for someone else.
- Mar 2, 2015
- 19,401
- 35,169
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
No.
The takeaway here is that James Worpel will probably poll more votes than you’d expect from his limited ability due to his contested ball-winning whereas the favourite, Nick Daicos might poll fewer votes than people think, if history is any guide, due to him receiving most of his possessions uncontested on the outside of the packs.
Food for thought, if anyone is thinking of taking the prohibitive odds of $1.72 about him winning the medal and betting the house on him.
Gamblers might find better value elsewhere… Tracc or Bont at $6.00… Taranto $15… Dawson $20… Neale $26… Butters & Rozee $34… Greene $50… Gulden $80… Anderson $100
Last edited:
I’m putting together a panel of experts to answer this question: Jobe Watson, Chris Grant, and Corey McKernan.
Absolutely it has.
SO many games now where the "big name" gets the votes over a more unheralded player who had more influence on the result.
Also, so many times (like the Lewis example mentioned above) where a player has been great all season but "under the radar", then there are some prominent articles talking them up as a Brownlow fancy and lo and behold, said player starts garnering votes for the first time at exactly that point of the season.
Then you also have the situation that occurred (as an example) in the early 2010's. In 2010, Dane Swan was clearly the best player in the comp (and Luke Hodge clearly second). Swan was first in the players MVP (Hodge 2nd), Coaches MVP and basically every media award. He was short price favourite (from Hodge) in the Brownlow market. Chris Judd (biggest name around at the time) had an ok season but no one had him in Brownlow contention. In fact, it created controversy when he made the bench of the AA. He then went on to win the Brownlow with Swan (and Hodge) receiving very few votes.
There was lots of media about the "Swan snub" following the Brownlow.
In 2011, Swan was still good but not at the level of 'best in the comp' from the season before. Sam Mitchell won most of the media awards (that follow Brownlow voting), with Marc Murphy prominent also. On Brownlow night, Swan got A LOT of 3 vote games, including ones that were a big surprise to the general public. He dominated the voting, winning the award (from Sam Mitchell), in what was clearly a reaction to his lack of votes from the year before.
Then, in 2012, Sam Mitchell was again very good but not really at the 'best in the comp' level from 2011 (and even missed All Australian). Perhaps in response to Swan pinching his Brownlow from the year before, Mitchell garnered plenty of votes and ended up (joint) winning the award (once Jobe was stripped).
The point being that clearly the umpire voting was a reaction to media attention that followed the previous year's Brownlow count. Just as all the calls that "such as such was robbed" in a certain game/season has led the umpires to more regularly award the 3 votes to the prominent names of the competition, leading to much higher tallies.
Noidnadroj
Norm Smith Medallist
- Dec 8, 2020
- 7,187
- 27,338
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Pies have won loads of games and he has nobody taking regular votes off him - there is nobody kicking bags of goals, Pendles and Sidey are past their prime, DeGoey is inconsistent and missed games, key backs like Moore rarely vote etc….
For example Oliver and Petracca share loads of votes, and it will happen again prior to Oliver’s injury. I’ll bet Petracca gets the most votes from the time of Oliver’s injury, but Daicos’s lead will be too great.
Bont has to ‘share’ votes with the likes of Libba, Macrae, English and Treloar.
Butters and Rozee and maybe Houston will likely share a heap of votes.
Whatever the case Daicos will be a worthy winner if he gets there. Although if he has a quiet month Petracca and even Bont may still reel him in.
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
For example Oliver and Petracca share loads of votes, and it will happen again prior to Oliver’s injury. I’ll bet Petracca gets the most votes from the time of Oliver’s injury, but Daicos’s lead will be too great.
Bont has to ‘share’ votes with the likes of Libba, Macrae, English and Treloar.
Butters and Rozee and maybe Houston will likely share a heap of votes.
Whatever the case Daicos will be a worthy winner if he gets there. Although if he has a quiet month Petracca and even Bont may still reel him in.
Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
- Oct 19, 2020
- 26,494
- 36,694
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #37
I
I think Daicos will get a heap of 2 votes.
Hmmmm.
I've done some analysis and Naicos is well under the odds at $1.70.
I have Petracca currently neck and neck with him, and Bont breathing down their necks.
With Nick getting the Finn tag this weekend, we can assume it will be another vote free weekend for the little maestro. This means he could possibly be third going into the final three rounds of the season.
Reckon with Bont and Petracca having the runs on the board over many years, the umpires will not miss them, whilst we can't be so sure about Nick (despite the hype from the start of the season).
I've done some analysis and Naicos is well under the odds at $1.70.
I have Petracca currently neck and neck with him, and Bont breathing down their necks.
With Nick getting the Finn tag this weekend, we can assume it will be another vote free weekend for the little maestro. This means he could possibly be third going into the final three rounds of the season.
Reckon with Bont and Petracca having the runs on the board over many years, the umpires will not miss them, whilst we can't be so sure about Nick (despite the hype from the start of the season).
Why would the best player in the game worry about being tagged by a player the quality Finn? Guess his reluctance to take contact was exposed for all to see on Friday night and if anyone missed it Kano highlighted it again on FC.
Rightly or wrongly umpires like contested beasts so it will be interesting to se how he polls.
- May 19, 2017
- 9,439
- 10,992
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Daics at 1.10 to shit his pants this week as he is forced unintentionally into an inside contest.
that is brilliant.Did that just come to you, or have you been saving it up?
I have one for you. $81, that is the odds of St Kilda, a team sitting 5th on the ladder to win the flag
Nobody takes your teams seriously, so I doubt whether your dismal troll attempts will do much better.
Thanks for playing though.
- May 19, 2017
- 9,439
- 10,992
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Like I said, $1.10.
Did that just come to you, or have you been saving it up?
I have one for you. $81, that is the odds of St Kilda, a team sitting 5th on the ladder to win the flag
Nobody takes your teams seriously, so I doubt whether your dismal troll attempts will do much better.
Thanks for playing though.
get on it before it drops drastically just prior to game time.
I think you may still be a little upset about when he taught your minnow of a club a lesson this year.
42 disposals and the perfect 10 coaches votes
.Please don't be upset, learn from it, get better players.
Yes I know Degoey and others knocked your team back because they not only wanted to play in front of more than 3 people but they also wanted to win.
And Yes I am well aware that Nick not only would be by far your best player but most likely your captain.
You proudly show the team you support on your avatar, so being ridiculed and laughed at wouldn't be new to you.
That being said though, your little digs must have received a great response from your little school friends, so you wanted to share.
Thank you for sharing.
Now go grab a tissue, look at your list, scream "WHY" and cry yourself to sleep.
- May 19, 2017
- 9,439
- 10,992
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
That's well and fine dude, except that my life dosen't care too much about the results of a football game. My investment seems way less to yours and your offence over Daics, its ok...you too will one day find much more important things in life than a game of football.I think you may still be a little upset about when he taught your minnow of a club a lesson this year.
42 disposals and the perfect 10 coaches votes
Please don't be upset, learn from it, get better players.
Yes I know Degoey and others knocked your team back because they not only wanted to play in front of more than 3 people but they also wanted to win.
And Yes I am well aware that Nick not only would be by far your best player but most likely your captain.
You proudly show the team you support on your avatar, so being ridiculed and laughed at wouldn't be new to you.
That being said though, your little digs must have received a great response from your little school friends, so you wanted to share.
Thank you for sharing.
Now go grab a tissue, look at your list, scream "WHY" and cry yourself to sleep.
By the way have you got on yet?
Daics now at $0.95 to shit the bed, dont delay!
Your welcome.
- May 19, 2017
- 9,439
- 10,992
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Even I, will agree with that.I have no funds for this bet, as I have put everything on St Kilda to miss finals.
It is a much safer bet
Just.
I reckon Bontempelli has been ahead in Brownlow voting throghout most of the season and should win it now. Doesn't necessarily make him the best player (Toby Greene's been more influental). The Bont has only played a couple of poor games.
STRONGandBALD
Club Legend
- Jun 13, 2023
- 1,185
- 738
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Banned
- #48
Trac as well
- Jun 12, 2018
- 5,024
- 9,399
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
Yes goal kickers don’t poll
modra wasn’t top ten in 93 ave 5.6goals 12 possessions
He won the Coleman in 97 got 1 vote for the season.
Like op has said clearance player award for the best part.
That’s why Fyfe has the best votes per game ave of the AFL era
Finn is the best tagger in the game, look what he did a few weeks ago to a seasoned player in Josh Kelly.
Daicos' challenge will be how best to ensure one player's sole focus being on him, to make it to the advantage of the team.
Quite the compliment for a second year player.
Similar threads
