No club has ever started a season 0-3 and finished top 4 in the 18-team era

[Worm4]

Great point.

This explains why Carlton always get an easy ride for the first handful of games each season...

OBSESSION much

 

[Cleansweep17]

Umm, north won its first flag in 1975 after starting 0-4. And also finished top 3.

He said 18 team era

 

[Cleansweep17]

So the stat is wrong. Geelong 2004 and North Melbourne 2007 are two examples.

He said 18 team era, you know the harder one

 

[fusion]

He said 18 team era

Guess you didn't see that he edited the title/original post and also posted about making an error. Look at post #18 in the thread, which is only 9 posts above yours for his clarification.

 

[Roobs321]

Melbourne’s finishing position in 2006 also hides its run, spent six rounds in 3rd despite the 0-3 start. Compared to North 2007 and Geelong 2004 they were also seen preseason as a flag hopeful and expected to come good. Swans a bit similar in 2017, cursed handicap start but were one of the standout sides thereafter.

 

[JackOutback]

Teams that are 0-2 like to point out that it's not that significant, hard draw etc, but I think I also read that no team that starts 0-2 has won a grand final in the modern era.

Here it is, from the AFL website.

Since 2000, only 20 of the 114 teams who have made an 0-2 start to a season have gone on to play finals.

Only three of those have reached the Grand Final; the Pies fell just short in the 2018 decider and Sydney did it twice (in 2006 and 2014), but neither club was able to go all the way.

Yeah, this might be the year a club defies history, but it doesn't look good.

 

[PJays]

The AFL seems more even than its ever been, so the 0-2 starts aren't surprising. And they've had tough starts.

Collingwood has flown under the radar a little in terms of age, probably because Geelong won the flag in 22 with a very old team.

But Collingwood are very old. The oldest team in the Comp last round, by a decent margin. They played 8 who are 30 or more including 4 who are 33 or more. At the other end, Daicos their youngest player at 21. Only 4 players who were 23 or under.

It wouldn't be surprising if they've hit the proverbial wall. I tend to think they'll recover, starting this week, and finish 5-8.

 

[fusion]

North's first flag in 1975 is quite amazing. At that time the only team in the VFL without a premiership, and having lost the 1974 Grand Final (the clubs only previous GF was a loss to an Essendon side with John Coleman) went out and lost the first 4 games of the season. I'm not sure what the odds are of making the finals when starting 0-4 in the modern era, or even the VFL era, but they can't be good.

Here's a quote from an article from 2016 about it:

-North Melbourne opened the 1975 season with four straight losses, by an average of 24 points
-They recovered to finish third on the ladder in the 12-team competition, with a record of 14-8
-Despite losing their semi-final to Hawthorn, the Kangaroos made the most of their double chance to reach the grand final
-North smashed the Hawks by 55 points in the decider to snare the club’s maiden flag
*Since then, the past 51 teams to open a season 0-4 have failed to reach the finals that year

 

[Frank Grimes]

Hey OP, new thread idea:
"No club has ever won the flag after losing in Round 0."

No club has won the flag after winning round 0 either. I guess we can put a line through all those teams who played in round 0.

 

[PerthBoy86]

North's first flag in 1975 is quite amazing. At that time the only team in the VFL without a premiership, and having lost the 1974 Grand Final (the clubs only previous GF was a loss to an Essendon side with John Coleman) went out and lost the first 4 games of the season. I'm not sure what the odds are of making the finals when starting 0-4 in the modern era, or even the VFL era, but they can't be good.

Here's a quote from an article from 2016 about it:

Sydney 2017 started 0-6 and made finals.

 

[PerthBoy86]

There's even more footy media now and they make more of a noise. Collingwood did play two subpar games, but against two very good sides, so 0-2 alone doesn't say much. I think if they're 0-5 you can probably write them off as a premiership contender barring a mini miracle. They have looked a shadow of last year, but they weren't amazing every game last year. Just fell over the line a lot.

I'd actually be more concerned about Brisbane. I just don't think Fages has it in him for another tilt, and Coleman is a big loss. Andrews, Berry etc cant do it all themselves. McKenna been quiet. Have a lot of issues, and as good as Carlton were, allowing those runs of goals is concerning. Daniher and Hipwood are just too unreliable as key forwards, Cameron and Bailey imo are their best up forward. Rayner isnt consistent either. To get run down while leading by nearly 50 at home isn't what premiership sides do. I think they have the personnel and their window is still open, but they need a new coach or it'll pass them by.

 

[GC2015]

Collingwood did play two subpar games, but against two very good sides, so 0-2 alone doesn't say much. I think if they're 0-5 you can probably write them off as a premiership contender barring a mini miracle. They have looked a shadow of last year, but they weren't amazing every game last year. Just fell over the line a lot.

Looking better tonight. Still early in the game though.

 

[Mr.X]

Well the distrigram also went over the ordivian

long way to go

 

[PerthBoy86]

Looking better tonight. Still early in the game though.

Guess its returning to the pattern of the first 2 games. The Mason Wood injury seems to have given them something. Will be interesting to see how the Pies adjust.

 

[GC2015]

Guess its returning to the pattern of the first 2 games. The Mason Wood injury seems to have given them something. Will be interesting to see how the Pies adjust.

It's official. Collingwood are 0-3 to start the 2024 season. Brisbane at the Gabba up next for the Pies.

Can they defy history and make something of this season and or are they already cooked?

 

[PerthBoy86]

It's official. Collingwood are 0-3 to start the 2024 season. Brisbane at the Gabba up next for the Pies.

Can they defy history and make something of this season and or are they already cooked?

Nah they're cooked. Just lack the desire but have been worked out. Saints impressive though, could be top 4, but I still think they finish about 6th.

 

[RUNVS]

To make the top 4 last year you needed 16 wins.

With 3 losses that means Collingwood have 19 games to go. It means they need to win 16 of 19 to make the top 4.

 

[Obeanie1]

The AFL are creating the anomalies with the fixture.

The fixture has always been skewed but they have taken it to the next level in the last few years.

Good teams deliberately get a hard start to the season for ratings. s**t teams / teams AFL propping up in expansion markets deliberately get an easy start to the season to try and build momentum on and off field (memberships).

100% spot on.

And the teams that finish last and 17th. Both played away against top finalists and current year top four prospects.

 

[SC_Power]

Umm, north won its first flag in 1975 after starting 0-4. And also finished top 3.

And anyone who dismisses that because there weren’t as many teams,
Making top 5 out of 12 is harder than making top 8 out of 18.

(Now I could argue that it was just a state comp back then, but time and place, time and place )

 

[SC_Power]

Did you know that Port Adelaide, undefeated and with the leagues highest percentage, weren’t even top 4 at the end of Round 1?

Lies, lies, and damned statistics.

Collingwood probably will be ok.

 

[Run n Spread]

Guess we'll be first

 

[ashep]

In 2017 we started 0-6 and finished 6th.

Starting losses/x = ladder position/x
X = 2
∆ Swans started 0-3 and finished 3rd

Check mate atheists.

 

[Kommbat]

To make the top 4 last year you needed 16 wins.

With 3 losses that means Collingwood have 19 games to go. It means they need to win 16 of 19 to make the top 4.

they have 20 games left to play in the season, no?

 

[HorusMenes]

Umm, north won its first flag in 1975 after starting 0-4. And also finished top 3.

This is true but it was a 12 team competition and only the top five qualified. NM lost three times to Hawthorn that season but thumped them in the final. I think what the point is being made is it's even harder in the 18 team era.

 

[HorusMenes]

Ahh I see what's happened here. The source was referring to the 18-team era from 2012 onward:

Apologies for the confusion. OP and thread title updated.


Well done I'll extend on your research to include results between 1994-2006 as that's the entire 8-team finals series era:

Between 1994-2006 there were 4 of 25 teams that started the season 0-3 and went on to make the finals. Only one finished in the top 4 - Geelong in 2004.

2006 - Melbourne 0-3 (7th)
2004 - Geelong 0-3 (4th)
2001 - Adelaide 0-3 (8th)
1999 - Sydney 0-3 (8th)

Combine that with your stats from 2007-2023 to include all years containing the 8-team finals series between 1994-2023. That gives us 11/71 teams (15.4%) that made the finals after starting the season 0-3 and 2/71 (2.8%) that finished in the top 4.


Correct. In the last 30 seasons (1994-2023) teams that start 0-3 have made finals 15.4% of the time, have made the top 4 2.8% of the time and have made the grand final 0% of the time. In the 18-team era (2012-) we've seen 28 teams start the season 0-3 and only 7.1% of those 0-3 teams have made finals, 0% of teams that start 0-3 have made the top 4 and 0% of teams that start 0-3 have made the grand final 0%. So it's statistically even more difficult to come back from an 0-3 start in the 18-team era than it was in the 16-team era, which makes sense mathematically because more total teams with the same amount qualifying for finals should mean more wins are required to make it.

exactly