No club has ever started a season 0-3 and finished top 4 in the 18-team era

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Crows won't make finals.
Too many teams have improved in the meantime. St Kilda, Geelong, Fremantle, GWS, Sydney, Carlton, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast.

Melbourne look the same side as last year and will make finals again.

Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Collingwood, Brisbane . . . . they haven't improved at all. They look worse and some will be sitting 0-2 & 0-3.
 
West Coast had a dodgy start in early 1992, when they were 2-1-3 after seven rounds.

Some of our worst 90s form came in the first several weeks of '92, still outside the top 6 in Rnd10, and entered finals in 4th.

R1 - Bye
R2 - lose to Sydney by 3
R3 - beat Saints by 33
R4 - lose to Geelong by 24 (at home, conceded 95pts in 1st half)
R5 - draw Brisbane (first time they hadn't lost to us)
R6 - beat Tigers by 1
R7 - lose to Roys by 20

So by end R7, we'd almost failed to beat any of the bottom 4 from '91. West Coast won just as many games (21) in '91 as they did, combined!

We are failing to win in places like the SCG, Carrara, North Hobart. i.e. places that Vic teams would have to travel to as well.
 
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Several teams are staring down the barrel of an 0-3 start right now. Collingwood are already there, Richmond will likely get there later today with a probable loss to Port, Brisbane will get there if they lose to Collingwood on Thursday night, the 0-2 Crows have a daunting trip to Perth to face the undefeated Dockers next week and could end up 0-3, North will most likely end up 0-3 as they are facing Carton next week and one of West Coast or the Bulldogs will probably get there too considering they face each other next week.

It's entirely possible that six teams will start the 2024 season 0-3.
You’re making an assumption that the Eagles will lose to GWS today.















call the midwife GIF by PBS
 
I thought we did it in 2007?

Yep we did. Close the thread lol

Mind you the Cats turnaround was even more impressive that season, and they won the flag.
Mate Geelong started 6 and 2 in 2007 only losing to Bulldogs by 20 and Hawthorn by 4. Thats not a resurgence and they absolutely smacked teams that season including a record breaking Grand Final margin
 
Mate Geelong started 6 and 2 in 2007 only losing to Bulldogs by 20 and Hawthorn by 4. Thats not a resurgence and they absolutely smacked teams that season including a record breaking Grand Final margin

we started 2-3, so that’s not possible.

We lost to Hawthorn, Dogs and North inside the opening 5 rounds.
 
In my best Richie Benaud voice,

Port Adelaide started Owen Twoooo in Twoooo thousand and Two… and then proceeded to loooose only twooo more H&A games to finish top of the ladder, a lovely four (that) games inside the top four.


(before choking in the finals 🤢 yes I know, as is our wont)
 
Absolutely. Two key points to bear in mind are:

- the season is longer than it has ever been, both in number of matches and total.time (with both Brisbane and Collingwood having extra week to rest)

- the AFL has increasingly weighted the early season fixture so that good teams play other good teams, bad teams get wins against bad teams, etc. Collingwood are 0-2 precisely because they played two likely contenders. Brisbane also played a top 4 opponent and a mid table team (last year) away. The flipside is those teams have an easier run later in the year.

What it means is that it is more likely than it used to be that a good team starts 0-3, and if they do they have more games to catch up, more rest and time to reshuffle.tactically, and more easy games coming.

So comparing to historical records isn't that meaningful, as we know from last year.
good points....

once we have a 24 game regualr season, I wont be shocked if some sides still make finals despite a 0-2 or 0-3 or even a 0-4 record.

Swans were 0-6 in 2018 and made finals with a 14 wins and 8 loss record.

not exactly a 0-3 record, your mob carlton was like 3 and 7 or had a 3 win and 8 loss record and made finals with 13 wins, 9 losses and a draw.
 
In my best Richie Benaud voice,

Port Adelaide started Owen Twoooo in Twoooo thousand and Two… and then proceeded to loooose only twooo more H&A games to finish top of the ladder, a lovely four (that) games inside the top four.


(before choking in the finals 🤢 yes I know, as is our wont)
It was exactly the same in 2003 as well
 
In my best Richie Benaud voice,

Port Adelaide started Owen Twoooo in Twoooo thousand and Two… and then proceeded to loooose only twooo more H&A games to finish top of the ladder, a lovely four (that) games inside the top four.


(before choking in the finals 🤢 yes I know, as is our wont)
Your post was absolutely maaarvellous.
 

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In my best Richie Benaud voice,

Port Adelaide started Owen Twoooo in Twoooo thousand and Two… and then proceeded to loooose only twooo more H&A games to finish top of the ladder, a lovely four (that) games inside the top four.


(before choking in the finals 🤢 yes I know, as is our wont)
super stuff that
 
I thought we did it in 2007?

Yep we did. Close the thread lol

Mind you the Cats turnaround was even more impressive that season, and they won the flag.
And now brisbanes season was even more impressive than yours in 2007 and they were 0-4 and won the flag from 5th
 
Stastically speaking, teams that start a season 0-3 in the 18-team era (2012-23) have only qualified for finals 6.2% of the time and none have gone on to finish top 4 or play in the grand final. In the top 8 finals era (1994-2023) teams that start 0-3 have made the finals 15.4% of the time, have finished in the top 4 just 2.8% of the time and have never made the grand final.

Reigning grand finalists Collingwood and Brisbane are both staring down the barrel of 0-3 starts to their season and if it happens to both then history suggests they are unlikely to even make the finals, let alone finish in the top 4.

Are we about to see a changing of the guard at the top end of the AFL?
Well lions just came from 0-4 and won the flag from 5th position which is much more impressive than winning it with a second chance up your sleeve.
 
He said 18 team era, you know the harder one
Now it’s the harder one: the first two years of the 18 team era was equal to the 16 team era, only difference was every team got a percentage boost for the first two or so years whenever they played suns or gws. So that would make the hawks 3-peat almost on terms with the lions 3-peat, only real
difference is they got that boost on % from two teams getting flogged every week 😂
 
Now it’s the harder one: the first two years of the 18 team era was equal to the 16 team era, only difference was every team got a percentage boost for the first two or so years whenever they played suns or gws. So that would make the hawks 3-peat almost on terms with the lions 3-peat, only real
difference is they got that boost on % from two teams getting flogged every week 😂

Yeah maybe but when Richmond 17-20 came around GWS was already in prelims. So yeah 18 team comp vs 16 team comp. Ours is harder.
 
Stastically speaking, teams that start a season 0-3 in the 18-team era (2012-23) have only qualified for finals 6.2% of the time and none have gone on to finish top 4 or play in the grand final. In the top 8 finals era (1994-2023) teams that start 0-3 have made the finals 15.4% of the time, have finished in the top 4 just 2.8% of the time and have never made the grand final.

Reigning grand finalists Collingwood and Brisbane are both staring down the barrel of 0-3 starts to their season and if it happens to both then history suggests they are unlikely to even make the finals, let alone finish in the top 4.

Are we about to see a changing of the guard at the top end of the AFL?
Brisbane won the 2024 flag despite being 0-3 and 2-5
 
Melbourne’s finishing position in 2006 also hides its run, spent six rounds in 3rd despite the 0-3 start. Compared to North 2007 and Geelong 2004 they were also seen preseason as a flag hopeful and expected to come good. Swans a bit similar in 2017, cursed handicap start but were one of the standout sides thereafter.
Another reason to have a 24 game season.

Imagine going 0-4 or 0-5 and manage to make finals with 15 wins and 9 losses
 

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No club has ever started a season 0-3 and finished top 4 in the 18-team era

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