Oppo Camp Non-Essendon Football Thread XVI

[andleanback]

I have to say that Carlton is not playing as well as I thought it would.

If this is what they bring to the Gabba next week they're not going to be within 5 goals of Brisbane from midway through Q2.

But I think we need to have a more sophisticated approach to analysis of how a game looked, beyond just scoring shorts.

I'll pay Melbourne a win inside 2 kicks at the absolute most based on XG as I see the flow of the game.

Melbourne jumped Cartlon. Carlton then ground Melbourne down to control the game from about half way through Q1 to half time.

The number of scoring shots didn't differ greatly until half way through Q3 and Melbourne didnt dominate the momentum of the game. If Melbourne kicked more accurately the game would reset where Carlton controlled centre clearances. That gives the Blues a crack at the Melbourne back 6 without the whole ground structure.

The teams were both missing players but it is clearly the case that McKay was the most significant out. Lever and May can't gang up on Curnow if McKay is bossing marks at half forward (which he does even when spraying kicks at goal).

I still think Carlton has the ability to click and stun Brisbane and even win the whole thing. They're a bit banged up, though. I'm also still not convinced that they're good enough outside the contest to overcome everything that would be thrown at them in the next fortnight.

Everyone said the same thing last week though, that they wouldn’t be able to go with Melbourne if they played like they did against Sydney. Carlton have proven they can stand up to the intense pressure and hold until they can get momentum back on their terms

 

[yodellinhank]

Yeah, I agree with all of that.

Which makes me interested in how Scott goes in the next four years and where our build takes us. Tsatas is apparently a player that is build for where the game is heading, which is great, but what is our gameplan that makes Tsatas that player.

Can't kick and can't tackle is the future.

 

[jannissary]

Carlton was under achieving.

2 x Coleman medallists.

Cripps.

Walsh.

A gun key defender.

Saad.

That's an extremely good spread of top end talent.

Added to that was Hewett and playing Kennedy in the middle to create a fleet of hardball tanks (Hewett and Kennedy are top end endurance runners for inside mids). They added the class of Cerra and some direction and the result was living inside the top 8 in 2022 until the last round, pushing the best teams right until the end.

This seasons they started slowly because they were trying to sort out how to take the heat out of a game and play without the ball.

Now they've found elite Cerra, the massive work rate and intensity of Cotrill, who is more effective than I first thought. Cincotta is another competitor.

Acres is a gun who stands up in heat bringing genuine physicality to elite 2-way running power on a wing.

They've got competitors all over the place. They're built for the heat of finals. We are built for circle work that can fool an uninterested Melbourne in round 5.

It's only going to get worse. Carlton is going to soon add 23 round 4 quarter Hollands, to add more elite 2 way run, and Cowan to add another dynamic to half back. TDK is looking like he will fulfill his massive potential. We are going to add Jade Gresham to our list of pissants.

what works for carlton is that they’re all competitive & don’t give up (maybe excluding mckay let’s be real).

there’s a lot you could say about early draft picks, but the players they’ve bought in (hewitt, newman, saad, pitonett & cerra) are all extremely talented footballs who’ve played well in the second half of the year

 

[Phone]

what works for carlton is that they’re all competitive & don’t give up (maybe excluding mckay let’s be real).

there’s a lot you could say about early draft picks, but the players they’ve bought in (hewitt, newman, saad, pitonett & cerra) are all extremely talented footballs who’ve played well in the second half of the year

weird i don't remember this being said when they were losing. wonder what changed.

 

[BrunoV]

Everyone said the same thing last week though, that they wouldn’t be able to go with Melbourne if they played like they did against Sydney. Carlton have proven they can stand up to the intense pressure and hold until they can get momentum back on their terms

Brisbane is a scoring powerhouse, though.

There is a level of inefficiency in Melbourne's game, even when it is playing well, that keeps teams close. Carlton can slug it out with Melbourne in the middle. If McKay was playing it can also spread the Melbourne defence.

Carlton v Brisbane around the ball is pretty even. On the outside, Brisbane has the advantage again and will turn opportunities to scores. The loss of control of ball movement in 2 10 minute segments will be enough for Brisbane to kick away.

 

[jannissary]

weird i don't remember this being said when they were losing. wonder what changed.

losing to essendon changes mindsets

 

[brain taylor]

may is so good

 

[rumply]

Brisbane is a scoring powerhouse, though.

There is a level of inefficiency in Melbourne's game, even when it is playing well, that keeps teams close. Carlton can slug it out with Melbourne in the middle. If McKay was playing it can also spread the Melbourne defence.

Carlton v Brisbane around the ball is pretty even. On the outside, Brisbane has the advantage again and will turn opportunities to scores. The loss of control of ball movement in 2 10 minute segments will be enough for Brisbane to kick away.

There's a bit of a reality check in store for the Blues next game given they played their GF last night. But at least they got to play one unlike some teams I can think of.

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Max Gawn

11

Max Gawn

Age

33

Ht

209cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

6.7

4star

CL

2.8

4star

HO

35.3

5star

D

18.5

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

7.0

4star

CL

3.5

4star

HO

29.2

5star

D

8.4

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.8

4star

CL

1.0

3star

HO

15.6

5star

will be having “what if” nightmares about the goal he missed just before 3/4 time and his check side from the goal line (WTF was he doing?) with 5 minutes to go for the rest of his life.

I’ve heard Ling say the cats players of ‘08 think about the one that got away more than his 3 flags.

 

[fairbump_playon]

There is something about Goodwin. I can't quite put my finger on it.

He's not a person I would put anywhere near running a club.

There is too much smoke which relates to his integrity and intelligence.

The way he chops and changes with the forwards, it's almost like a gambling addict chasing losses.

He’s got problems for sure

Him and Bevo.. definitely keepers of the darkness.

Smart guys in their own way but the mix of success, ego, pressure is exposing cracks in their personalities.

Bevo comes off as the moody messiah who plays favourites. Goodwin with private issues with anger and impulsivity. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Nicholas61]

Brisbane is a scoring powerhouse, though.

They can pile it on very fast especially at the Gabba. If Melbourne got through they were no chance especially without Pickett (and Petty). Carlton have a small chance. McKay is an interesting one - last week he took some important strong marks that our guys can't - then if he starts turning sideways and missing shots from 20m those things can have a nasty flow on to the rest of the teams psychology, your almost better of without them.

Talking about marks a lot of the Melbourne smaller guys can take strong grabs. I don't think their forward line is that bad talent wise I think it is more a coaching thing and the quality of entries - it was almost Essington in the Davey Snr years bombing it onto the smallest guys head manned by two defenders (in this case Pickett). The amount of serious running tacklers and the lack of space in these games shows where we have to move but it doesn't seem we have caught on at this late stage.

 

[Nicholas61]

He’s got problems for sure

Him and Bevo.. definitely keepers of the darkness.

Smart guys in their own way but the mix of success, ego, pressure is exposing cracks in their personalities.

Bevo comes off as the moody messiah who plays favourites. Goodwin with private issues with anger and impulsivity. Just my opinion of course.

Remember when Melbourne had that guy set up as the outlet in the centre in that GF and Beveridge refused to change things and they went from 3 goals up to 8 goals down in no time.

 

[I Remember Bluey]

feel like the de koning brothers (twins?) are both really, really good & have both had great years

No not twins although they look more like twins, than most twins

Tom (Carlton) is the older @ 24 and Sam (Cats) is 22.

 

[fairbump_playon]

Brisbane is a scoring powerhouse, though.

There is a level of inefficiency in Melbourne's game, even when it is playing well, that keeps teams close. Carlton can slug it out with Melbourne in the middle. If McKay was playing it can also spread the Melbourne defence.

Carlton v Brisbane around the ball is pretty even. On the outside, Brisbane has the advantage again and will turn opportunities to scores. The loss of control of ball movement in 2 10 minute segments will be enough for Brisbane to kick away.

For this reason I’m hopeful that Brisbane might absolutely punish and embarrass Carlton

Sure a prelim is still a massive win for the Blues this year

But please, please no GF.

 

[mike ross]

There's a bit of a reality check in store for the Blues next game given they played their GF last night. But at least they got to play one unlike some teams I can think of.

Look, I think it's time to stop laying the boots into Fitzroy.

 

[brain taylor]

need me one of these for the next few weeks

 

[BrunoV]

There's a bit of a reality check in store for the Blues next game given they played their GF last night. But at least they got to play one unlike some teams I can think of.

I don't think they played their GF.

They didn't play close to their best. McKay and Martin return.

Voss has another few levels to sell.

 

[Lore]

GWS does social media pretty well, so this could be fun

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Vale Ronald Dale Barassi

 

[Lore]

Rest in peace.

 

[rumply]

I don't think they played their GF.

They didn't play close to their best. McKay and Martin return.

Voss has another few levels to sell.

I actually do hope you are right. As someone what has a couple of Carlton mates, last night was great fun.

But I've seen this movie many times before. Brisy will spank them.

 

[rumply]

I'll try again...


Amazing stat with GWS winning at 11 different venues this season.

 

[jmoo wan]

I'll try again...


Amazing stat with GWS winning at 11 different venues this season.

is that true? that is quite incredible!

 

[jannissary]

i’m going to make something incredibly unfunny if the orange team wins

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

They’ve been good to watch this season Giants .. hope they get up