Jaysus, there are a lot of quite probable scenarios over the next three weeks where we end up 9th and Hawthorn 8th. We def want Carlton to beat them this weekend.
Those scenarios involve us going 1-2. If that happens we are cooked anyway and don't belong in the finals.
If Carlton beat Hawthorn and go 3-0, then we will likely miss out on a home final if we do indeed go 2-1. I've got us finishing 7th and playing away to Geelong in 6th if all the favourites win and Carlton beat Hawthorn. And Carlton will be top 4 (puke).
If Carlton lose to Hawthorn, then we would be in line (again based on favourites winning all the games) for a home final against the Blues.
Obviously there can (and probably will) be upsets to mess this all up, but it's not clearcut that we want Carlton to win.