Analysis On the road

[AwwThatsApples]

Not as bad as the Eagles' road record just yet, but footy classified showed our record on the road against top 8 teams since 2017 has been 6wins 13losses. This year, in particular, we didn't travel well going to Perth or Brisbane, admittedly it's better not to waste our best football prematurely at this time of the year, but I almost question if we undertake the right preparations leading up towards our travelling matches throughout the week. It was difficult this week for external reasons, but it realistically shouldn't have affected the playing group's motivation.

Our 6 wins on the road against top 8 teams since 2017 have been:

Sydney in 2017

West Coast in 2017

Sydney in 2018

West Coast in 2019

West Coast in Gold Coast* (Neutral game)

Collingwood in Brisbane* (Neutral game)

and not a single win against a top 4 team away from home throughout this time. Thankfully the Dogs away is our only other intensive travelling match anticipated for the rest of the minor round season, but it might be interesting if anybody can provide records on the specific venues we've travelled to in recent times to determine where our biggest needed improvements lie. And considering we haven't beaten Fremantle away since the 2014 SF and our recent encounters in Tasmania haven't been the best either, we have plenty of improvements we can build through in the remainder of this season. After all, we have to be up for a big afternoon at the G if we want to take it all.

 

[tribey]

and not a single win against a top 4 team away from home throughout this time.

Guess you don’t remember 2011, etc.

 

[PAFC66]

Guess you don’t remember 2011, etc.

Been a while and many years under ken since then

 

[tribey]

Been a while and many years under ken since then

It’s not the SANFL anymore, etc.

 

[bow and arrow]

Not as bad as the Eagles' road record just yet, but footy classified showed our record on the road against top 8 teams since 2017 has been 6wins 13losses. This year, in particular, we didn't travel well going to Perth or Brisbane, admittedly it's better not to waste our best football prematurely at this time of the year, but I almost question if we undertake the right preparations leading up towards our travelling matches throughout the week. It was difficult this week for external reasons, but it realistically shouldn't have affected the playing group's motivation.

Our 6 wins on the road against top 8 teams since 2017 have been:

Sydney in 2017

West Coast in 2017

Sydney in 2018

West Coast in 2019

West Coast in Gold Coast* (Neutral game)

Collingwood in Brisbane* (Neutral game)

and not a single win against a top 4 team away from home throughout this time. Thankfully the Dogs away is our only other intensive travelling match anticipated for the rest of the minor round season, but it might be interesting if anybody can provide records on the specific venues we've travelled to in recent times to determine where our biggest needed improvements lie. And considering we haven't beaten Fremantle away since the 2014 SF and our recent encounters in Tasmania haven't been the best either, we have plenty of improvements we can build through in the remainder of this season. After all, we have to be up for a big afternoon at the G if we want to take it all.

Have any of those wins been at night? I had a theory that playing at night after arriving the previous day always resulted in a loss but the weekend game threw that theory out the windows so I give up!

 

[AwwThatsApples]

Have any of those wins been at night? I had a theory that playing at night after arriving the previous day always resulted in a loss but the weekend game threw that theory out the windows so I give up!

I know Collingwood at the Gabba and West Coast at Optus are night games. Sydney in 2018 was a Sunday twilight and West Coast in 2020 was a Saturday afternoon. I don't recall the exact times for the 2017 matches.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Not as bad as the Eagles' road record just yet, but footy classified showed our record on the road against top 8 teams since 2017 has been 6wins 13losses. This year, in particular, we didn't travel well going to Perth or Brisbane, admittedly it's better not to waste our best football prematurely at this time of the year, but I almost question if we undertake the right preparations leading up towards our travelling matches throughout the week. It was difficult this week for external reasons, but it realistically shouldn't have affected the playing group's motivation.

Our 6 wins on the road against top 8 teams since 2017 have been:

Sydney in 2017

West Coast in 2017

Sydney in 2018

West Coast in 2019

West Coast in Gold Coast* (Neutral game)

Collingwood in Brisbane* (Neutral game)

and not a single win against a top 4 team away from home throughout this time. Thankfully the Dogs away is our only other intensive travelling match anticipated for the rest of the minor round season, but it might be interesting if anybody can provide records on the specific venues we've travelled to in recent times to determine where our biggest needed improvements lie. And considering we haven't beaten Fremantle away since the 2014 SF and our recent encounters in Tasmania haven't been the best either, we have plenty of improvements we can build through in the remainder of this season. After all, we have to be up for a big afternoon at the G if we want to take it all.

We haven't played that many top 4 teams away from home and a couple of times we had the chance to win but umpiring intervened.

2017 Lost to Geelong 2pts the Dixon 30 seconds crap. Crows at AO 84pts is one of the 13 losses. GWS 31pts.

2018 Lost to Coll by 51pts. Hawks finished 4th, out in straight sets so 5th by 3pts in Tassie. 11x50m penalty.

2019 Lost to Rich 38pts, Collngwood 39pts, Brisbane 2nd but out in straight sets so 5th by 17 pts.

2020 Lost to Brisbane 37pts and Geelong 60pts

We beat top 4 sides at home and lose away from home. nothing that usual about that.

Very few non Vic sides would have a 50% win away from home record against top 8 sides over a 4 or 5 year period.

Do the same exercise for Richmond away from home state against top 8 and top 4 sides and you will see they wouldn't be over 50%, but at least they would probably have 3 or 4 wins against top 4 sides away from home. But they didn't travel much between 2017-19 years.

We only get 1 more chance to play a current top 4 side away from home in 2021 and that's the Bulldogs at Docklands in Rd 23. that will tell us a fair bit how ready we are for finals.

 

[Interstater]

I don't want this being turned into another chokers thing, I'm sure the VFL old boys media club are looking for any armour chinks.

 

[philreich]

Our 2004 premiership team played the Dogs in Darwin on a Saturday night, and then backed up against Collingwood in Melbourne 6 days later - winning both games easily. This current team clearly isn't capable of performing such heroics, such is their apparent stage fright away from home against a quality opponent.

Come round 23, we'll hopefully have our best 22 available (no guarantees of course) against the Dogs. Only our very best footy will help us bring home the 4 points: it'll be interesting to see how much the team has improved by then.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Richmond against top 4 sides away from MCG
2017 lost to Adelaide, GWS and Geelong at Kardinia Park
2018 lost to WCE
2019 lost to GWS in Canberra (beat them at MCG)
2020 lost to Port. Did beat Brisbane and Geelong at Carrara

 

[FishingRick04]

Richmond against top 4 sides away from MCG
2017 lost to Adelaide, GWS and Geelong at Kardinia Park
2018 lost to WCE
2019 lost to GWS in Canberra (beat them at MCG)
2020 lost to Port. Did beat Brisbane and Geelong at Carrara

They haven't played many away

 

[agmsy]

Losing to top 8 teams on the road is just a subset of losing to top 8 teams.

2020 is the only year where Hinkley has had a better than 50% H&A record against teams who finished the year in the top 8.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

They haven't played many away

Correct that's why its wrong to compare Port away game results to Victorian sides away game result as an apples vs apples type comparison because the volume is so different.

Sure we have to do better but compare us to non Vic sides for a better gauge of ability to win on the road.

Do the exercise for WCE, Adelaide, GWS and Sydney between 2017-2020 and there wouldn't be a lot of difference.

 

[El Zorro]

Richmond against top 4 sides away from MCG
2017 lost to Adelaide, GWS and Geelong at Kardinia Park
2018 lost to WCE
2019 lost to GWS in Canberra (beat them at MCG)
2020 lost to Port. Did beat Brisbane and Geelong at Carrara

You can't compare Richmond with interstate teams. We know that interstate teams need to work harder to win flags, it's the nature of the competition. Richmond can lose every H-A interstate game and still finish top 4. And with a bit of luck, play all their finals at their home ground. Can't compare.

edit: you actually just said this in a subsequent post.

 

[El_Scorcho]

I don't think it's a specific away thing. It's a problem where sometimes we just don't turn up and get spanked. Where we get monstered in the midfield, where we revert to hospital ball forward entries that give us no chance of scoring.

You can usually tell 5 minutes in whether we've shown up or not. And we can't seem to turn it around either. I can't think of a time where we've been down by 4 goals and come back to win.

Hinkley sucks.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

I don't think it's a specific away thing. It's a problem where sometimes we just don't turn up and get spanked. Where we get monstered in the midfield, where we revert to hospital ball forward entries that give us no chance of scoring.

You can usually tell 5 minutes in whether we've shown up or not. And we can't seem to turn it around either. I can't think of a time where we've been down by 4 goals and come back to win.

Hinkley sucks.

It happens more often away from home than at home. The players get affected by the crowd.

4 goals down from when in the game??

Showdown before the China game in 2018 was bizarre. 1 goal to 4 at quarter time, 2 goals to 7 half way thru the 2nd quarter, 4 goals to 8 at 1/2 time, 11 goals to 10 at 3/4 time, 13 goals to 11 with 3 minutes to go, they kick 3 to take lead, then we depend on some Motlop Magic to win the game.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

I don't think it's a specific away thing. It's a problem where sometimes we just don't turn up and get spanked. Where we get monstered in the midfield, where we revert to hospital ball forward entries that give us no chance of scoring.

You can usually tell 5 minutes in whether we've shown up or not. And we can't seem to turn it around either. I can't think of a time where we've been down by 4 goals and come back to win.

Hinkley sucks.

Port remains undefeated as West Coast wallows

Power continues its best start to a season as Eagles' woes continue

www.afl.com.au

A long time ago yes but thought it was worth mentioning.
Plus the match in round 13 the same year when we came back from 3 goals down against Sydney.
Plus the second showdown and our 4 goal turnaround in the final 5 minutes.

We were also down by nearly 5 goals in the duress of the second quarter in the first 2018 showdown.

If it was purely his fault we couldn't have won any of these matches.

 

[AwwThatsApples]

I actually think making good work of the competition's bottom 10 teams is more beneficial and often easier for ladder stability. We were the one and only team in 2020 with a 100% winning record against every bottom 10 team in the competition I think.

 

[EskimoPAFC]

It’s not the SANFL anymore, etc.

It's a tough road and someone's gotta lose on it.

 

[snozulu]

 

[It Just Is]

2017 is an odd cut off point and if you look at our ladder positions in that time it’s not surprising. We were a mid table team for most of that time and our good year had less games to balance that out.
2017 - 5th (lost to 8th in the elimination final)
2018 - 10th
2019 - 10th
2020 - 1st (in a shortened season)

We have consistency issues but they aren’t limited to the road.

 

[agmsy]

Losing to top 8 teams on the road is just a subset of losing to top 8 teams.

2020 is the only year where Hinkley has had a better than 50% H&A record against teams who finished the year in the top 8.

Here's our win-loss stats against top 8 sides since 2013:

YEAR	GAMES	HOME WINS	HOME LOSSES	AWAY WINS	AWAY LOSSES	NOTES
2013	9 (10)	2	4	0	3 (4)	brackets incl. ESS and CARL
2014	9	3	2	0	4
2015	13	3	4	3	3	Lost home Showdown; won away Showdown
2016	10	0	6	1	3	Lost both Showdowns
2017	9	0	3	2	4	Lost both Showdowns
2018	9	2	3	1	3
2019	10	1	4	2	3

2020 is a bit funny. Against the top 8:

• We went 2-1 at Adelaide Oval
• We won another "home" game at Metricon
• We went 0-1 playing away at the opposition's actual home ground
• We went 1-1 in "away" games at the Gabba and Metricon

Still, I don't think it's playing away that's the problem. We don't beat good teams enough whether we play at home or on the road.

 

[Us against the rest]

I actually think making good work of the competition's bottom 10 teams is more beneficial and often easier for ladder stability. We were the one and only team in 2020 with a 100% winning record against every bottom 10 team in the competition I think.

So you are saying that we are flat track bullies.

 

[GremioPower]

So you are saying that we are flat track bullies.

No. One cannot call having 100% v. Bottom and 50% v. Top as flat-track bullies.

Actually, if we had that record, it would be great.

 

[Del165198]

Wouldn't this be more or less the same for all clubs, exceptions being maybe Richmond or Geelong?

Of course we'll have a better record against poorer teams, because they aren't as good. And it follows that unless you're consistently top 2 every year, your record against the top 8 is going to be less than 50/50.

The issue is that we just haven't been good enough overall. I think there would be equally as much outcry if we kept upsetting top teams but then consistently drop games against the bottom 6.