Prediction Our Chances in the 2019 finals

[Next Waiting]

We have to win every game from here on in thats all there is to. Whoever wherever we play.

The other results we need this weekend is Norf to beat and Freo to Bombres. The freo game is the most important and pies winning would be useful.

If those results dont go our way then we need the cats to beat lions away. May even be the 2nd most important game. Y? Because we need the lions to have a reason to beat Richmond (top 2) and the pies the hope of making the top 4 and a qf against cats at G to ensure they beat bombres in rnd 23.

 

[fronkalicious]

We can actually sneak in with 11 wins potentially. Weird

 

[Doggies_13]

So after playing around with the ladder predictor a bit. If we were to lose this week and Adelaide won we would need to win the last game against them by a certain margin to make up the percentage.

Currently we would need a 42 point win or there abouts to make up the percentage gap but if they were to say win by 10pts against the pies and we were to lose by 10pts to the giants, we would need to win by 52 points in the last game.

So basically if we don’t beat the giants and the pies don’t beat the crows we will need a near 10 goal win to make.

 

[Mofra]

I think we're a decent chance to sneak in. This season has shades of 2015 all over it, sneak into the finals than play a tough elimination final.

 

[X_box_X]

We've been in this position a few times over the years, where we needed to win our final two games to play finals. 2001, 2005 and 2017. Hopefully it's fourth time lucky.

 

[MYOB]

Was 2005 the Jeff White free kick

 

[maddog37]

Everyone would

Not me.

 

[go the dogs]

If we win both i think we are certainties to make it. We will know by Sunday how we are looking. We should all be pies and dockers supporters as well this week and even NORF. If we lose and the 1st 2 get up we will only need to win next week and need eagle to beat hawks and pies beat dons. If Norf beat power as well that will give us an extra option if Freo can beat Port last game aswell.

 

[bobs head soup]

The TAB had us a $3 chance this morning, now we're $2.75 so presumably someone with decent money likes our chances

 

[footyfan000001]

What a shame we lost to the suns at home and North before Rhys Shaw.

 

[Doggy]

The TAB had us a $3 chance this morning, now we're $2.75 so presumably someone with decent money likes our chances

$2.35 Ladbrokes

 

[bobs head soup]

$2.35 Ladbrokes

Follow the smart money

 

[In Repair]

I placed big dollars (for me anyway) on Essendon missing the 8 for $4 late last week so hoping freo and the pies can do me and the doggies a solid

 

[zucvv]

oh no, not a good look. Dons will bounce.

 

[Scott Tracy]

We've never won a round 23 game under Bevo.

We can blame Brad Lynch for one of those. It was a tough kick though

 

[Werewolf]

We've never won a round 23 game under Bevo.

I reckon we put the cue away in 2015 (conceded 6.6.42 without scoring from the start of the 2nd quarter) because we were locked into 6th. We were also locked into 7th in 2016, so no high stakes there. Opposition was just a little bit too good in '17 and '18.

 

[X_box_X]

I reckon we put the cue away in 2015 (conceded 6.6.42 without scoring from the start of the 2nd quarter) because we were locked into 6th. We were also locked into 7th in 2016, so no high stakes there. Opposition was just a little bit too good in '17 and '18.

Are you sure about that? Had Adelaide beaten Geelong in 2015, we would have fallen to 7th and surrendered a home final. Similarly in 2016, our match started at HT of the Collingwood v Hawthorn match. We were 11 points down at HT. Collingwood and Hawthorn went down to the wire, with the Hawks winning by one point. Granted, as the final siren sounded at the MCG, our position of 7th was locked in, but how do you explain being 11 points behind at HT?

 

[Werewolf]

Are you sure about that? Had Adelaide beaten Geelong in 2015, we would have fallen to 7th and surrendered a home final. Similarly in 2016, our match started at HT of the Collingwood v Hawthorn match. We were 11 points down at HT. Collingwood and Hawthorn went down to the wire, with the Hawks winning by one point. Granted, as the final siren sounded at the MCG, our position of 7th was locked in, but how do you explain being 11 points behind at HT?

That was the impression I got at the time. Brisbane were last going in (3-18) and smashed us after quarter time. Against Fremantle we were down 7.2.44 to 4.9.33 at HT so poor conversion was the main culprit yet again. Luckily it didn't return to haunt us in the following weeks!

We're usually a very good team when we do kick straight. Unfortunately poor kicking has cost us 2-3 games this year

 

[Braybrook Son]

We can blame Brad Lynch for one of those. It was a tough kick though

Incorrect. We can blame Bont. Missed an easier shot from 15 metres out, slight angle

 

[Finn Jim]

The Pies have found a bit of form, I'm hoping we can make your road a little easier by knocking Adelaide off the chase. (And the Bombers for that matter). I'm concerned that the Crows will play their hearts out against us and sneak a win, and the Pies will ease off knowing they are locked outside the 4. The way we've been playing, I have no idea which group of Magpies will be on the ground... the world-beaters or the VFL look-alikes.

It really comes down to Port doesn't it? They have North and Freo, both of whom will be playing for pride at that point, and I'm not sure the Dogs can get the percentage to catch them assuming both win out. You at least control your own destiny with regards to the Crows, but you guys are going to have a lot of nervous channel-changing these next few weeks. GWS is going to be tough as well.

Right now I'd say your chances are 40-60... but I hope you prove me wrong!

 

[TiAn_]

The Pies have found a bit of form, I'm hoping we can make your road a little easier by knocking Adelaide off the chase. (And the Bombers for that matter). I'm concerned that the Crows will play their hearts out against us and sneak a win, and the Pies will ease off knowing they are locked outside the 4. The way we've been playing, I have no idea which group of Magpies will be on the ground... the world-beaters or the VFL look-alikes.

It really comes down to Port doesn't it? They have North and Freo, both of whom will be playing for pride at that point, and I'm not sure the Dogs can get the percentage to catch them assuming both win out. You at least control your own destiny with regards to the Crows, but you guys are going to have a lot of nervous channel-changing these next few weeks. GWS is going to be tough as well.

Right now I'd say your chances are 40-60... but I hope you prove me wrong!

Yep.

Need to beat GWS on their home ground to have any hope. Big task. They have plenty to play for. If we lose this week, it’s probably all over.

Then, if we manage that, we still need to back up and beat the Crows in essentially an elimination final. They ran the Eagles to 10 points in Perth and on their day they aren’t a pushover.

If we pull off the above, we still need Port or Ess to drop one, otherwise we still miss out.

The three Saturday arvo/night games this week will determine whether we control our own destiny or not. Going to nervous viewing if they’re close games.

 

[Doggy Dan]

There is a very real chance that playing our last home game in Ballarat could cost us a finals spot. I hope like hell it doesn’t but this is how important these financial decisions the club make can have on our performance.

 

[Doggy Dan]

IMO - we need to win all 6 remaining games to be crowned premiers.

 

[Doggies_13]

We were reportedly offered to play our last game Saturday night at marvel and turned it down to honour our commitment to Ballarat

 

[maddog37]

There is a very real chance that playing our last home game in Ballarat could cost us a finals spot. I hope like hell it doesn’t but this is how important these financial decisions the club make can have on our performance.

Poppycock. The suns and Carlton games did that.