Prediction Our Chances in the 2019 finals

[X_box_X]

There's a fair chance Carlton will beat Adelaide for the Kreuzer MK2 Cup.

 

[hoianbulldog]

I don’t like our chances. Would be surprised if any of the top 6 miss the finals and despite their struggles I think Adelaide will win their next four (GC away, Essendon home, Carlton away, St Kilda home) which would take them to 12-7 and almost certainly seal their finals spot. They’re no certainty to go 4-0 in those games but will definitely be heavy favourites in each.

As has been said with our percentage chances are against us making it. We’ve either got to get to 13 wins or have two or three 10 goal wins to get our percentage above the rest of the chasing pack. Neither look like more than a slim possibility.

 

[flamethrower]

Max Gawn is likely to be back this week. He basically beat us single handedly twice last year, so we have to find away to win this week first.

 

[stmookeyj]

It may come down to the last 2 games (Giants in Sydney, Crows in Ballarat) if we keep our form up (which is a big IF). When I inputted what I think may happen on the AFL predictor, I have us finishing 9th on percentage (same wins as GWS and Port). The squiggle predictor with my inputs has us also finishing 9th again on percentage with GWS 8th. Both times I had us LOSING the northern away trips.

 

[LondonBulldog]

If we win the next 3, ill be a little excited. If we win 5 and lose 2 we should sneak into 8th.

I did the ladder predictor as well picking favourite's then home side's on the 50/50 games.

Definitely a chance if they can keep the tempo up they had on sat night against Geelong.

 

[Scary_Foot_9]

I think we'll get to 11-11 and it will depend on if other results go our way.

 

[grassman75]

And set up a first final at the G against Richmond....now that would be fun

 

[go the dogs]

If we win 5 we make it i reckon. Favourites our next 3 and should win the way we are playing. That would give us 5 on the trot and plenty of confidence. Going to Brisbane we beat them once could see us being a sneaky chance. 50 50 Essendon. Think we lose to the Giants as they should be getting players back by then. Adelaide at Mars for a spot in the finals i would back us to get it done.

 

[theburst]

Pumped we’re talking Finals chances again and experts giving us the next 3, but can we just get past the Demons first.
Saying that we’ll have a ripper squad into the last Rounds when Libba,Morris,Daniel are all in.

 

[go you pups]

If we’d won two of the the GC, Blues, North games, we’d be 6th on the ladder.
It’s all hypotheticals but all those three games were more than winnable ( we’d be equal 3rd if won all three )

It’s a pretty good reflection on how good this team can be and the damage we can do if we do manage to sneak in to the finals.

Gold Coast, Fremantle and Collingwood second time were the 3 we blew for mine

Carlton spanked us, deserved to lose that. We only played one period of footy against North either side of 3QT, deserved to get done there too.

 

[Mattdougie]

I’ve picked teams on CURRENT form against each other, if in doubt taken home team and this is what I ended up with

 

[hoianbulldog]

 

[Mojorisin]

Hard to see it this year but if we’re any chance, we must win our next 3. Barrett made a good point on FC last night. We play our better footy as underdogs. Possibly be favourite for our next 3. Big test of our maturity. Need to start getting ourselves ‘up’ for every team, not just those above us on the ladder.

Wash your mouth out

 

[BallaratBulldog]

 

[Werewolf]

This time two years ago (after R16, 2017) we were 7-8 with 92.4%. Same W/L now, but with a slightly better percentage...

 

[BallaratBulldog]

This time two years ago (after R16, 2017) we were 7-8 with 92.4%. Same W/L now, but with a slightly better percentage...

2005 we were 6-10 and stormed home to 11-11 only to just miss out losing one to Melbourne a bit controversially.

 

[Braybrook Son]

Not to burst our bubble, and I know a lot of you will take this as a negative post, but the reality is the last two wins, although they were great, came against two good sides that kicked very poorly at goal against us.

Port kicked 5.11 in the wet, Geelong kicked 7.13, which is the first time this season, Geelong have kicked more behinds than goals in any game. I think we got a lot of luck our way in both games because of this. I feel that we have a big chance to win 4-6 games coming home, but I can’t help but feel we’re only one poor goalkicking game away from losing one of those games that we have to win.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Not to burst our bubble, and I know a lot of you will take this as a negative post, but the reality is the last two wins, although they were great, came against two good sides that kicked very poorly at goal against us.

Port kicked 5.11 in the wet, Geelong kicked 7.13, which is the first time this season, Geelong have kicked more behinds than goals in any game. I think we got a lot of luck our way in both games because of this. I feel that we have a big chance to win 4-6 games coming home, but I can’t help but feel we’re only one poor goalkicking game away from losing one of those games that we have to win.

It's a fair point but I think the last few weeks we're better at the deeper defence and putting pressure on the ball carriers more, so set shots are taken from further out by more tired players. It's a delicate balance though, there's a good chance we can't keep it up every week and that's when we get the Curnow's and Darling's tearing us a new one.

 

[Bald]

Not to burst our bubble, and I know a lot of you will take this as a negative post, but the reality is the last two wins, although they were great, came against two good sides that kicked very poorly at goal against us.

Port kicked 5.11 in the wet, Geelong kicked 7.13, which is the first time this season, Geelong have kicked more behinds than goals in any game. I think we got a lot of luck our way in both games because of this. I feel that we have a big chance to win 4-6 games coming home, but I can’t help but feel we’re only one poor goalkicking game away from losing one of those games that we have to win.

Fair and reasonable point.

Here are 4 games where we either equalled or had more scoring shots though. Goes both ways.

7.26 against Gold Coast (+10 scoring shots)
9.15 against Fremantle (+1 scoring shot)
13.12 against North (equal scoring shots)
10.13 against Collingwood (+6 scoring shots)

 

[bobs head soup]

2005 we were 6-10 and stormed home to 11-11 only to just miss out losing one to Melbourne a bit controversially.

Ugggh, that brings back bad memories. Jeff fricken White....

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Fair and reasonable point.

Here are 4 games where we either equalled or had more scoring shots though. Goes both ways.

7.26 against Gold Coast (+10 scoring shots)
9.15 against Fremantle (+1 scoring shot)
13.12 against North (equal scoring shots)
10.13 against Collingwood (+6 scoring shots)

9.14 not 7.26 v Suns.

 

[ScragCity]

If we win 5 we make it i reckon. Favourites our next 3 and should win the way we are playing. That would give us 5 on the trot and plenty of confidence. Going to Brisbane we beat them once could see us being a sneaky chance. 50 50 Essendon. Think we lose to the Giants as they should be getting players back by then. Adelaide at Mars for a spot in the finals i would back us to get it done.

We will beat Essendon. Only team we have never lost to under Bevo.

 

[gangsta deluxe]

Need to win the next three in a row. Drop any one and we are cooked.

 

[Bald]

9.14 not 7.26 v Suns.

Ah, I just googled 'Western Bulldogs Fixture' and it said we had kicked 7.26 lel. Still! Equal scoring shots.

 

[Luder]

Not to burst our bubble, and I know a lot of you will take this as a negative post, but the reality is the last two wins, although they were great, came against two good sides that kicked very poorly at goal against us.

Port kicked 5.11 in the wet, Geelong kicked 7.13, which is the first time this season, Geelong have kicked more behinds than goals in any game. I think we got a lot of luck our way in both games because of this. I feel that we have a big chance to win 4-6 games coming home, but I can’t help but feel we’re only one poor goalkicking game away from losing one of those games that we have to win.

I get what you're saying, and there is some truth to it, but I don't think it's that simple. I think we cause the other team to look poorer because of the level of pressure our guys have been applying the last few weeks, as well as the intensity the game is being played at. This really takes it out of you - it's part of the appeal of the quick handball hot potato strategy we've adopted, in that it forces the opposition to constantly chase while our guys are relatively stationary. This saves our energy for the quick bursts, while also tiring the opponent. Tired legs means poor goalkicking.

I don't think it's just "luck" that we've come up against Collingwood, Port and Geelong sides that all looked to be underperforming. I think that was more to do with us having control of the game and having it played on our terms, rather than just getting lucky and having 3 top team at their worst