Opinion Our Current Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Me Wrong

[LoBu]

The rebuild is going to take longer than I first thought.

I don't have us with a premiership-contending team until 2027, a full five years from now. That will be 10 years since 2017 - which makes sense I guess.

To do this, we need to have an average of 125 games per team member, which is not easy from our position of most inexperienced squad out of all clubs.

We need to continue to gain Free agents to booster this, and most important, get games into a core group.

We should target Redman (2023) and Cox (2024) as FA, and draft Moir and Welsh.

My 2027 finals team (accounting for playing approx. 80% of games only) will have 123 games experience on average. It has 4 players not in our squad, and 4 not currently in best 22 (this year).

The team is (with estimated game experience):

Rachele 108 Fogarty 153 Moir 76
McAdam 138 Welsh 58 Rankine 143
Dawson 181 Berry 130 Soligo 111
Worrell 100 Cox 177 Redman 175
Michalanny 82 Butts 138 Doedee 166
Thilthorpe 120 Dowling 82 Pedlar 100

Hinge 141 Schoenberg 167 Milera 95 Nankervis 58

There's clearly room for about 1/3 of the team to not make it, and for players left out to make it in, but this has to be close or else we are in trouble list-wise.

 

[pushintheback]

The rebuild is going to take longer than I first thought.

I don't have us with a premiership-contending team until 2027, a full five years from now. That will be 10 years since 2017 - which makes sense I guess.

To do this, we need to have an average of 125 games per team member, which is not easy from our position of most inexperienced squad out of all clubs.

We need to continue to gain Free agents to booster this, and most important, get games into a core group.

We should target Redman (2023) and Cox (2024) as FA, and draft Moir and Welsh.

My 2027 finals team (accounting for playing approx. 80% of games only) will have 123 games experience on average. It has 4 players not in our squad, and 4 not currently in best 22 (this year).

The team is (with estimated game experience):

Rachele 108 Fogarty 153 Moir 76
McAdam 138 Welsh 58 Rankine 143
Dawson 181 Berry 130 Soligo 111
Worrell 100 Cox 177 Redman 175
Michalanny 82 Butts 138 Doedee 166
Thilthorpe 120 Dowling 82 Pedlar 100

Hinge 141 Schoenberg 167 Milera 95 Nankervis 58

There's clearly room for about 1/3 of the team to not make it, and for players left out to make it in, but this has to be close or else we are in trouble list-wise.

Moir could be around the mark with our first pick. He's a gun. Provisional first pick is #5. We need speed and more mid depth imo. We have a reasonably good draft hand in 2023 with 5, 19, 26, 56 & 79. If we can get another 1st or 2nd round pick that will go a long way in contending in 2027ish.

 

[LoBu]

Moir could be around the mark with our first pick. He's a gun. Provisional first pick is #5. We need speed and more mid depth imo. We have a reasonably good draft hand in 2023 with 5, 19, 26, 56 & 79. If we can get another 1st or 2nd round pick that will go a long way in contending in 2027ish.

Might need another ruck and another taller defender (195cm+) too.

 

[GreyCrow]

Rachele 108 Fogarty 153 Moir 76
McAdam 138 Welsh 58 Rankine 143
Dawson 181 Berry 130 Soligo 111
Worrell 100 Cox 177 Redman 175
Michalanny 82 Butts 138 Doedee 166
Thilthorpe 120 Dowling 82 Pedlar 100

Hinge 141 Schoenberg 167 Milera 95 Nankervis 58

I appreciate the time and thought gone into this - but if this is the case then we havent/wouldnt have learned anything on our past issues ie continuing to pick players because of continuity

Thats a team for a 1 off flag - Milera hangs around 5 years for only 21 more games? Delist

We still have McAdam at 32? Delist

My main point is not who is in the team but who isnt? Where are the kids - from MY point of view we need 4 players with less than 50 games in the side.

Again good thought but 125 isnt a magical number - most flag sides have 10 x 100+ game players with a few 200+

 

[adelaidecrows]

Honestly, if our team keeps improving and we continue to attract star players home like Rankine and Dawson, well I think we are in with a shot at leaving this nightmare behind us. The only problem is we lack that genuine midfield general. Until we get that sorted we will always rebuild for a top 8 side but the top 4 will be beyond us.

 

[Danger_zone]

Honestly, if our team keeps improving and we continue to attract star players home like Rankine and Dawson, well I think we are in with a shot at leaving this nightmare behind us. The only problem is we lack that genuine midfield general. Until we get that sorted we will always rebuild for a top 8 side but the top 4 will be beyond us.

I hear Holland’s has great leadership qualities, tall, big bodied midfielder…

 

[AFC979810]

The rebuild is going to take longer than I first thought.

I don't have us with a premiership-contending team until 2027, a full five years from now. That will be 10 years since 2017 - which makes sense I guess.

Predicting rebuilds is tough work! Especially 5 years from now. Who could have imagined all that would transpire from our Grand Final appearance 5 years ago to now. We had not heard of 2/3 of our current list in 2017.

We SHOULD be making a big step up in 2023. For a rebuilding side - we have had a head coach and (hopefully) gameplan now settled for 4 preseasons.

Our list profile is young - 23.8 years average, 53.4 games. But lets not hide from the fact its equal to or older than both 2021 (23.6 years/ 54.2 games) and 2022 (23.5 years/45.6 games) when we won 7 & 8 games. We have also added in Rankine - an elite talent.

I am yet to find a reason as to why we shouldn't improve in 2023 and if that occurs - that will significantly change when we can contend. Once more - look at Collingwood / Fremantle. They both had very similar list profiles to us entering 2022 and both made finals in 2022.

If Nicks is the guy (and I have my doubts), barring an absolutely catastrophic injury list, we should be pushing the 8.

 

[Soggy2112]

Predicting rebuilds is tough work! Especially 5 years from now. Who could have imagined all that would transpire from our Grand Final appearance 5 years ago to now. We had not heard of 2/3 of our current list in 2017.

We SHOULD be making a big step up in 2023. For a rebuilding side - we have had a head coach and (hopefully) gameplan now settled for 4 preseasons.

Our list profile is young - 23.8 years average, 53.4 games. But lets not hide from the fact its equal to or older than both 2021 (23.6 years/ 54.2 games) and 2022 (23.5 years/45.6 games) when we won 7 & 8 games. We have also added in Rankine - an elite talent.

I am yet to find a reason as to why we shouldn't improve in 2023 and if that occurs - that will significantly change when we can contend. Once more - look at Collingwood / Fremantle. They both had very similar list profiles to us entering 2022 and both made finals in 2022.

If Nicks is the guy (and I have my doubts), barring an absolutely catastrophic injury list, we should be pushing the 8.

Who has the experience and is in the right stage of their career is important though, not just the raw numbers.

50+ game players on our list (I’ve bolded those I’d consider good or elite in their position):

Jones, Keays, Murphy, Crouch, Sloane, Seedsman*, Dawson, Walker, Laird, Milera, Fogarty, Smith, Doedee, O’Brien

There’s not just a lack of experience, there’s a lack of quality players with experience.

It’s a lot to expect guys like Thilthorpe, Rachele, Berry, Rankine, McAdam, Schoenberg etc. to drive us to a finals birth without that experience.

Comparatively, yes the Pies were young and inexperienced, but heading into the 2022 season they had the following high level players with 50+ games experience:

De Goey, Grundy, Elliott, Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, Crisp, Moore, Maynard, Howe

Freo similar:

Darcy, Fyfe, Brayshaw, Walters, Ryan, Mundy, Lobb

Expecting this list to make finals is unrealistic.

9-10 wins is a good barometer of success for us this year.

 

[AFC979810]

Comparatively, yes the Pies were young and inexperienced, but heading into the 2022 season they had the following high level players with 50+ games experience:

De Goey, Grundy, Elliott, Pendlebury, Adams, Sidebottom, Crisp, Moore, Maynard, Howe

Freo similar:

Darcy, Fyfe, Brayshaw, Walters, Ryan, Mundy, Lobb

Expecting this list to make finals is unrealistic.

9-10 wins is a good barometer of success for us this year.

We won 8 games in 2022 and lost 3 games by 5 points or less. Why is 1-2 wins more the high end of success? Another preseason - no subtractions from the team and the addition of Rankine.

I personally don't believe we will make finals because I don't think Nicks is a good coach.

But I just can't understand the questions on the list. A worse version of our 2023 list won 7 games in 2021 and 8 games in 2022 and now we have added Rankine.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I cautiously think we'll be good-ish this year.

6th-10th

Reasoning:
We're settling a defence. Butts, Murray, Dude, Parnell, Hinge, Smith, Jones played a fair bit of footy together last season

We've got three tall forwards; Walker still producing, Fogarty now with a good half season behind him and Thilthorpe 3rd preseason in.

We've recognised that our small forwards are - to put it kindly - limited... so drafted Rachele and recruited Rankine.

ROB couldn't surely dish up the same uninspired blancmange he did last season. We should drop him every week and then bring him in as a late change.

Which leaves the midfield. Yeah, OK. 6th-10th might be optimistic. Let's go 8th-10th. Hopefully we do every single thing completely differently with regards to our midfield.

Riders:
Dawson wing
Sloane, Crouch, Keays to not soak up 75% of centre square midfield time

 

[Klug]

We had a pretty good injury run overall in 2022 compared to other sides.

Butts Walker and Thilthorpe will be incredibly important to keep fit and on the park for us to have the improvement we all hope we see.

If we start well, but then get injury hit and finish bottom 4, I wonder how the Crows board will assess our year?

 

[pushintheback]

we cant afford to drop the close games or too many home games in 2023, they just kill ya when its so tight to make the 8. We definitely need more mid depth. Keays will improve but against the likes of Cripps, Bont, Danger we just get just get smacked. Im optimistic about our fwds. Tex still has a couple of years in him. Thilthorpe and Fogarty should be better in 2023 and then the smalls R&R will work well together. R&R will make many defences very nervous if we get enough footy deep I50. Even a few dirty balls in would be better than the perfect hit up. I agree the defence is settling and should be better in 2023. Mids and speed is the issue for me. If we can win the close ones and get back to winning at home I'm optimistic we can make the 8.

 

[LoBu]

I appreciate the time and thought gone into this - but if this is the case then we havent/wouldnt have learned anything on our past issues ie continuing to pick players because of continuity

Thats a team for a 1 off flag - Milera hangs around 5 years for only 21 more games? Delist

We still have McAdam at 32? Delist

My main point is not who is in the team but who isnt? Where are the kids - from MY point of view we need 4 players with less than 50 games in the side.

Again good thought but 125 isnt a magical number - most flag sides have 10 x 100+ game players with a few 200+

This analysis shows we clearly need 4 more more free agents (Redman, Cox and 2x others unknown by me), which puts the team up to 10 players not currently in the team or in the squad who make this team.

We also have more first-round picks not in here which could be converted to trades - e.g. a Hollands, but it's so unrealistic that we would get Hollands that it's hardly worth putting in.

McAdam only just made this team, could easily go for a Gollant or Cook, and Milera is only in the team if he makes an impact this year. McAdam is currently best of all these so he stays in.

 

[LoBu]

we cant afford to drop the close games or too many home games in 2023, they just kill ya when its so tight to make the 8. We definitely need more mid depth. Keays will improve but against the likes of Cripps, Bont, Danger we just get just get smacked. Im optimistic about our fwds. Tex still has a couple of years in him. Thilthorpe and Fogarty should be better in 2023 and then the smalls R&R will work well together. R&R will make many defences very nervous if we get enough footy deep I50. Even a few dirty balls in would be better than the perfect hit up. I agree the defence is settling and should be better in 2023. Mids and speed is the issue for me. If we can win the close ones and get back to winning at home I'm optimistic we can make the 8.

That would be amazing if we made the 8 this year, like you say everything needs to come together.

 

[kirky]

We had a pretty good injury run overall in 2022 compared to other sides.

Butts Walker and Thilthorpe will be incredibly important to keep fit and on the park for us to have the improvement we all hope we see.

If we start well, but then get injury hit and finish bottom 4, I wonder how the Crows board will assess our year?

Everyone gets a contract extension.

 

[Golumless]

The rebuild is going to take longer than I first thought.

I don't have us with a premiership-contending team until 2027, a full five years from now. That will be 10 years since 2017 - which makes sense I guess.

To do this, we need to have an average of 125 games per team member, which is not easy from our position of most inexperienced squad out of all clubs.

We need to continue to gain Free agents to booster this, and most important, get games into a core group.

We should target Redman (2023) and Cox (2024) as FA, and draft Moir and Welsh.

My 2027 finals team (accounting for playing approx. 80% of games only) will have 123 games experience on average. It has 4 players not in our squad, and 4 not currently in best 22 (this year).

The team is (with estimated game experience):

Rachele 108 Fogarty 153 Moir 76
McAdam 138 Welsh 58 Rankine 143
Dawson 181 Berry 130 Soligo 111
Worrell 100 Cox 177 Redman 175
Michalanny 82 Butts 138 Doedee 166
Thilthorpe 120 Dowling 82 Pedlar 100

Hinge 141 Schoenberg 167 Milera 95 Nankervis 58

There's clearly room for about 1/3 of the team to not make it, and for players left out to make it in, but this has to be close or else we are in trouble list-wise.

I think it's reasonable to expect that 2027 is around the point we'll have a squad that can compete for a premiership, if all is going well, considering we are entering 2023 with a young list. That said, I don't think we'd be in any strife if 1/3rd of that list didn't make it, depending on who it is - after all, that's a very reasonable turnover in the next four years.

Really, whether we're in trouble or not come 2027 likely depends on: Thilthorpe, Dawson, Rachele, Rankine, Soligo and maybe Berry/Fogarty. After all, that's Adelaide burgeoning core (and A graders) at this point. Probably more in particular, if Rankine and Rachele can shift into midfield roles (likely one would have to switch permanently) and Thilthorpe can blossom into the next star key forward (or ruck I guess, but it feels a bit of a waste for someone who just seems like he could be one of the best key forwards in the league). Plus if we can add to it or not, seeing we probably need 3-4 extra lads to really push themselves into that group. Get that, and the rest should sort itself out on the list development side, seeing it's just kids/role players.

 

[Bob Neil]

I take no satisfaction in bumping this thread. The issues that were apparent two years ago are now playing out in real time.

 

[Multiballz]

I take no satisfaction in bumping this thread. The issues that were apparent two years ago are now playing out in real time.

So do we re-start our re-build?

 

[dogs105]

So do we re-start our re-build?

Just keep it going...

 

[1970crow]

So do we re-start our re-build?

What we've got to do is forget about wringing every last drop out of Sloane and smith in the ridiculous hope they're experience will turn a loss into a win. When Milera returns, we need to have little patience with him as well. Then play the next group on the cusp ie Hamill, Ned et al and if they aren't up to it by now, they're gone too at end of year. Our aim is to finish around the 8 the next two years, we should be finishing bottom 4 and selecting the best available mids.

 

[LoBu]

What we've got to do is forget about wringing every last drop out of Sloane and smith in the ridiculous hope they're experience will turn a loss into a win. When Milera returns, we need to have little patience with him as well. Then play the next group on the cusp ie Hamill, Ned et al and if they aren't up to it by now, they're gone too at end of year. Our aim is to finish around the 8 the next two years, we should be finishing bottom 4 and selecting the best available mids.

Sounds reasonable, but when we play our kids in the key roles and lose, everybody seems to lose their minds.

 

[George Kramer]

Sounds reasonable, but when we play our kids in the key roles and lose, everybody seems to lose their minds.

Nope

 

[LoBu]

Nope

OK, very cryptic.

 

[George Kramer]

OK, very cryptic.

You made a wrong statement. If we play “quality” kids in key positions and lose, we aren’t blaming the kids. Eg Max, Rachelle and Soligo.

But when we have so very few of them and when our senior players let us down, then we get upset.

 

[LoBu]

You made a wrong statement. If we play “quality” kids in key positions and lose, we aren’t blaming the kids. Eg Max, Rachelle and Soligo.

But when we have so very few of them and when our senior players let us down, then we get upset.

No, and to make it clear I'm not talking about you personally as I don't have a clue what you think except you can be sensitive about sweeping statements, but everyone is blaming Nicks. And I'm not trying to summarise BF, just the general public sentiment from broader media sources.

Expecting our 4-5senior players to pull us over the line is a bit rich too, since you brought that up.