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Prediction Our Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Yourself Correct - 5YR Ladder Prediction
- Thread starter Carmo
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Update: reckon finals (albeit the lower end of the eight) in 2024 is realistic now, I’m not quite as low on our future as I was when this was posted. Particularly if we’re able to add a defensive reinforcement (ie Redman or HH)
Can’t see us reaching top 4 until 2026/27 at the earliest, though
2023 - 14th
2024 - 11th
2025 - 7th
2026 - 6th
2027 - 5th
Just typing that was depressing. I just can’t see a top 4 side in our current list. Even if we get some great picks in ‘23 and ‘24 they are unlikely to be at their best until after 2027.
If we can get some more semi-mature Dawson/Rankine level types in the next couple years I might feel more positive.
Hopefully I’m wrong, and we’ll do a Sydney/Brisbane.
2024 - 11th
2025 - 7th
2026 - 6th
2027 - 5th
Just typing that was depressing. I just can’t see a top 4 side in our current list. Even if we get some great picks in ‘23 and ‘24 they are unlikely to be at their best until after 2027.
If we can get some more semi-mature Dawson/Rankine level types in the next couple years I might feel more positive.
Hopefully I’m wrong, and we’ll do a Sydney/Brisbane.
I think this is overly negative. Brisbane and Sydney have both been in the bottom 4 in very recent times.
I know. And Brisbane drafted and traded in elite talent, and Sydney are never down for long because of their culture.
We have minimal talent, and a mediocre culture.
Minimal talent is definitely overly negative. We’re decently well stocked, but still lacking a few key pieces
Culture is building, but yeah nowhere near Sydney’s as of right now
We drafted badly in 2016-2019. That's granted.
But 2020-2022 looks much better. And it's not like we don't have elite talent.
Thilthorpe, Fogarty, Rachele, Rankine, Dawson, Soligo are in my opinion elite talents.
Berry, Worrell, Michalanney, Pedlar, Schoenberg, Butts, Jones are all coming along to varying degrees.
Then there's plenty of untapped potential still in Doedee, Milera, Taylor, Cook, Nankervis etc who could all move into the above group of players who will drive us forward.
It's fanciful to think 2023-2025 will deliver any top 4 finishes, but beyond that I think there's enough there if we a smart about who pickup in that period.
Good culture, good recruiting, and never-ending concessions which are not tied to Sydney’s performance but to the AFL’s commercial ambitions.
Remove Heeney, Mills, Blakey, and Campbell and how does their list look? I’ll give them Gulden because he went late.
I agree that Sydney get a great leg up but so do the Suns, and look at them. Sydney have had to work for their culture and make good decisions to maintain it.
haven't seen your prediction yet and it's you having a crack at others.
There’s also the issue of media harassments for a good 3-4 years regarding the camp. The “camp saga” effectively became a saga only because the media kept on piling allegations every regular intervals, timed to perfection when we were on losing streaks. This surely would have played some part in negatively influencing the perceived club culture.
I don’t think there had been that kind of media scrutiny/attack towards a club in the last few decades that kept going on and on etc. Particularly when you compare to the much more serious recent allegations regarding Clarkson when at Hawthorn, the media has barely reported anything that was going to cause more flames to the scene.
dogs105
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2023. 3rd.
Mr MysteryGuest
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I doubt you would have said that about them at the start of 2019.
Brisbane are probably the rebuild to emulate given where our list is at. Both had a few misses before course correcting and then they built up with good trades.
We’ve started that with Dawson and Rankine. Need a couple more though, with at least one in midfield.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
Probably something like:
23: 10 wins
24: 11 wins
25: 15 wins
26: 6 wins
27: 14 wins.
The major risk is Nicks becoming stale, seeing the last two years have been well coached with a side who had the worst list on paper (seeing it was an aggressive list culling, and is now starting to get out of that phase + seeing what Hawthorn have done, is likely to become the model on how to rebuild). Otherwise, he's developing a side that is nails tough and is starting to get the talent needing to push upwards with Rankine (+ Rachele/Thilthorpe and others). He also has a good coaching group around him with standouts like Rahilly and Burgess and has done a fair bit to reverse the brain-drain we underwent in the mid-2010s (though it's also a never-ending need). The other main risk is administration over this period, especially as Olsen will definitely depart in the next 5 years. That decision on who replaces him will decide how this rebuild goes. Get it wrong, and everything will inevitably be handicapped from it, as we saw from both Trigg and Fagan.
So my rough guess at how it all pans out is we'll be in footballs wasteland for the next two years with Rankine being the shining light and everything slowly building around it. Then a spike with Rachele and Thilthorpe breakout campaigns before a sharp regression (and Nicks being sacked, because no coach survives a whole rebuild). Followed by a bounceback for a few years of a sustained shot in the late 2020s-early 2030s. Get that admin switch wrong and we'll probably get capped in the mid-table, get it right and we should be well placed to win at least one flag seeing there is enough talent to build a top 4 team and plenty of time to find that game changer (and we likely have it with Rankine coming aboard and looking well placed for a midfield switch).
23: 10 wins
24: 11 wins
25: 15 wins
26: 6 wins
27: 14 wins.
The major risk is Nicks becoming stale, seeing the last two years have been well coached with a side who had the worst list on paper (seeing it was an aggressive list culling, and is now starting to get out of that phase + seeing what Hawthorn have done, is likely to become the model on how to rebuild). Otherwise, he's developing a side that is nails tough and is starting to get the talent needing to push upwards with Rankine (+ Rachele/Thilthorpe and others). He also has a good coaching group around him with standouts like Rahilly and Burgess and has done a fair bit to reverse the brain-drain we underwent in the mid-2010s (though it's also a never-ending need). The other main risk is administration over this period, especially as Olsen will definitely depart in the next 5 years. That decision on who replaces him will decide how this rebuild goes. Get it wrong, and everything will inevitably be handicapped from it, as we saw from both Trigg and Fagan.
So my rough guess at how it all pans out is we'll be in footballs wasteland for the next two years with Rankine being the shining light and everything slowly building around it. Then a spike with Rachele and Thilthorpe breakout campaigns before a sharp regression (and Nicks being sacked, because no coach survives a whole rebuild). Followed by a bounceback for a few years of a sustained shot in the late 2020s-early 2030s. Get that admin switch wrong and we'll probably get capped in the mid-table, get it right and we should be well placed to win at least one flag seeing there is enough talent to build a top 4 team and plenty of time to find that game changer (and we likely have it with Rankine coming aboard and looking well placed for a midfield switch).
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WaynesWorld19
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I just feel like there is no one really tacking to be elite in the midfield. Who is going to be our Dusty, Petracca, Oliver, Danger? etc
I'm a big Berry fan and he is elite defensively but the proper elite players are elite offensively and he's a long way off that.
I don't see us making the top 4 in the next 5 years. If we didn't make finals all together I wouldn't blink to be honest.
The point of a rebuild is to have a crack at a flag and rip on the 2017 team all you want but I consider it a success. The current rebuilds ceiling is just scraping into the top 8, not a proper threat to anyone. I hope our list management team recognises this and hits the draft/trading hard but that would be conceding that stuffed up the early stage of the rebuild; and we know they won't do that.
I'm a big Berry fan and he is elite defensively but the proper elite players are elite offensively and he's a long way off that.
I don't see us making the top 4 in the next 5 years. If we didn't make finals all together I wouldn't blink to be honest.
The point of a rebuild is to have a crack at a flag and rip on the 2017 team all you want but I consider it a success. The current rebuilds ceiling is just scraping into the top 8, not a proper threat to anyone. I hope our list management team recognises this and hits the draft/trading hard but that would be conceding that stuffed up the early stage of the rebuild; and we know they won't do that.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
I also agree, the build in the late 2000s was a genuinely successful one. After all, it got us a shot, despite how much damage that the mismanagement the club admin heaped on throughout its run.
If only the admin was up to the task in the last decade, we probably have a handful of flags from the last 5-6 years.
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Our top four chances in 26/27 and beyond are certainly hinging on us getting our hands on our version of Bont/Rozee - a guy who can be an first class AA-calibre mid within three or four years. I’m confident Soligo and Berry can be a part of that rotation, hell I reckon Soligo and Berry have a very good chance of being A grade players, as it currently stands. We need that A+ guy, though
Maybe that can be Ashton Moir, if he shows more through the middle of the ground in his 18th year next season? I like Will Lorenz too
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It's absolutely zero surprise teams with garbage admin (North, Dons etc) have performed so poorly on the field. Look at the havoc Burton caused for us. There's so many moving parts you need to get right but the right list is one of if not at the top.
Lol we wish we would've had a handful of flags. I'm as big of a realist as they come and obviously we got pumped in the granny but I just wonder how it would've gone done if it was held at Adeladie Oval. Tigers always looked like a different team here. Furthermore if we never lost Danger, his inclusion would've really changed the team. Obviously neither would've happened but is a better judge of what we tried to build.
The thing is you just can't cherry pick a gun mid either. Melbourne went through plenty of top 10 potatoes midfielders before they landed Trac and Oliver.
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I've said a few times that I honestly believe that if Danger didn't leave that we would have won the Flag either in 2016 or 2017.
We were on the cusp in 2016 and playing great football, we just crashed and burned in that last round which cost us a top 2 finish.
Put Danger into that 2016 side and we would have finished 1st or 2nd and made a GF.
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We lost by 48 points, I don't think Danger alone makes up that difference. Tigers at home were amazing with their pressure, 2 more flags proved that.
So much tougher for interstate teams.
