Prediction Our Rebuild Will Ultimately Fail - Prove Yourself Correct - 5YR Ladder Prediction

[1970crow]

Isn't the rebuild a failure once Nicks is actually sacked?

It can be a failure before that happens.

 

[AFC979810]

Isn't the rebuild a failure once Nicks is actually sacked?

I think most people realized the Stuart Dew "rebuild" was a failure in about year 4. Same as Alan Richardson.

He would have to be odds on to be gone within the next 18 months surely.

 

[Cap]

It can be a failure before that happens.

Fair point , where is the line?. When has this rebuild failed and when does the next one start.

Are we underwater again preseason 2025 ?

I think most people realized the Stuart Dew "rebuild" was a failure in about year 4. Same as Alan Richardson.

He would have to be odds on to be gone within the next 18 months surely.

I think so too, that's why I wonder if it's officially done then.

Or are we saying rebuild 1 failed, rebuild 2 underway pending Nick's sacking we then start on rebuild 3.

 

[ABAB]

Cut him some slack, who would have thought Nicks would double down on his shit selection from last year and not only continue with them this year but also include these 4-5 carried players in this new shit game plan for the first 4 weeks.

 

[ABAB]

I think most people realized the Stuart Dew "rebuild" was a failure in about year 4. Same as Alan Richardson.

He would have to be odds on to be gone within the next 18 months surely.

GCS rebuild didn't failed, they assembled a good list as proven this year.

 

[1970crow]

Fair point , where is the line?. When has this rebuild failed and when does the next one start.

Are we underwater again preseason 2025 ?

I think so too, that's why I wonder if it's officially done then.

Or are we saying rebuild 1 failed, rebuild 2 underway pending Nick's sacking we then start on rebuild 3.

If you asked the board, their view would be that the rebuild was a success when we were still competing for a spot in the 8 in round 24 last year. Not all rebuilds are designed to achieve the same end.

 

[AFC979810]

GCS rebuild didn't failed, they assembled a good list as proven this year.

Oh yeah - their meteoric rise from 15th in 2023 to sitting 13th after 19 rounds is evidence that the rebuild has been successfully completed.

Did you go to the Mathew Nicks school of success?

 

[Greenfinger]

A graphic depiction of our failed rebuild . We forgot about the middle .

 

[maxlilly]

View attachment 2064110
A graphic depiction of our failed rebuild . We forgot about the middle .

And the coloured bits on top must be all our failed draft picks

 

[ABAB]

Oh yeah - their meteoric rise from 15th in 2023 to sitting 13th after 19 rounds is evidence that the rebuild has been successfully completed.

Did you go to the Mathew Nicks school of success?

You mean only 2 games outside the 8 so late in the season? Watch them next year, they will make the 8.

 

[texanmike]

You mean only 2 games outside the 8 so late in the season? Watch them next year, they will make the 8.

Respect your opinion but we will never make finals under Matthew Nicks.

 

[ABAB]

Respect your opinion but we will never make finals under Matthew Nicks.

I was talking about GCS making the Finals next year. I think Nicks will make the same obvious mistakes 3 years in a row and will be sacked towards the end of season next year.

 

[GROTTO]

Respect your opinion but we will never make finals under Matthew Nicks.

Correct.

Even with a dream draw, we will always drop games to poor teams and are not good enough to make them up against superior teams.

In 2025, our draw will be just as challenging IMO. Its been such an even year, our double up games next year will always make it tough on us.

If we play North and Hawks twice next year as an example, that could easily be 0-4 in 2025.

 

[pjcrows]

We'll be a sub-8 win team this year and next, leading ultimately to Nicks' departure.

Impossible to say after that, tbh. But for the sake of the thread, I will say 14th, 13th, 13th, 12th, 12th.

Furthermore if I had to guess I'd say we're more likely to be out of the finals most years over the next decade, than contending during that time. We don't have the core player talent to see "Sando spikes", either.

Five years of terrible drafting and average coaching does that.

Geez I wasn't half bad...

 

[AFC979810]

You mean only 2 games outside the 8 so late in the season? Watch them next year, they will make the 8.

So has our rebuild not failed?

The difference between our ladder position and Gold Coasts is 6 points (if we won rd 1 we would be ahead of them on the ladder).

 

[Danger in Texas]

Gut feel is that we spend the next 2 1/2 seasons in the wilderness. I would’ve said we’d be looking at finals in 2023 if you asked me six months ago, but the improvement just isn’t there right now

2022: 15th (continue to see more of the same)
2023: 16th (more stagnancy)
2024: 12th (would have to get a new coach by this point, start to see structural and individual improvement but still largely inconsistent as a side)
2025: 7th (things start to click into gear as Rachele, Soligo, RT etc start to come into their own)
2026: 5th (one of our peak years but still not quite enough to put us over the top)

Well my initial guess could still be right… then again, we won’t have a new coach still

 

[ABAB]

So has our rebuild not failed?

The difference between our ladder position and Gold Coasts is 6 points (if we won rd 1 we would be ahead of them on the ladder).

There's a quality core of youngsters coming through after the full rebuild so it hasn't failed and I'm more confident Fogarty can fill a bit of the void left by Walker after seeing this year but Thilthorpe will definitely need to step up. If Walker had the season like he did last year then we will be in Finals contention right now despite the shit mistakes Nicks has made this year, we would have won the Essendon, Collingwood and Brisbane games with a few more goals from him. Laird, Smith and ROB have all been meh so we aren't losing any quality when they retire.

 

[Jarman3]

There's a quality core of youngsters coming through after the full rebuild so it hasn't failed and I'm more confident Fogarty can fill a bit of the void left by Walker after seeing this year but Thilthorpe will definitely need to step up. If Walker had the season like he did last year then we will be in Finals contention right now despite the shit mistakes Nicks has made this year, we would have won the Essendon, Collingwood and Brisbane games with a few more goals from him. Laird, Smith and ROB have all been meh so we aren't losing any quality when they retire.

While we already have the pieces to replace Laird and Smith, he problem with ROB is that he's clearly hit the wall physically but we haven't even started developing a replacement. Have we even drafted a ruck since Strachan? At least when Jacobs finally fell over, we had ROB there who had been developing in the wings for a few years.

If we draft a ruck this year, it's likely to be at least 2-3 years before they're really ready for AFL footy. In the meantime we have to either trade for one or try to scoop up a DFA somewhere to fill the gap (both cases meaning your only options are players not wanted by their old clubs) or, more likely, just keep on dragging along a knackered ROB for a couple of years too long like we did with Jacobs.

 

[AFC979810]

GCS rebuild didn't failed, they assembled a good list as proven this year.

This just keeps getting better and better.

 

[ABAB]

This just keeps getting better and better.

Watch and learn next year We know they don't travel well this year and were only a slim chance of making Finals but another preseason under Hardwick.

 

[AFC979810]

Watch and learn next year We know they don't travel well this year and were only a slim chance of making Finals but another preseason under Hardwick.

They might turn it around next year. Who knows.

But they are the same Gold Coast they have been for the past two seasons. There is no evidence from this year to suggest a successful rebuild and the only one who would agree with you is Mathew Nicks.

 

[ABAB]

They might turn it around next year. Who knows.

But they are the same Gold Coast they have been for the past two seasons. There is no evidence from this year to suggest a successful rebuild and the only one who would agree with you is Mathew Nicks.

They have one of the best coach in the AFL so are not the "same", win a few games away and they would be in the 8 right now late in the season.

 

[GreyCrow]

They have one of the best coach in the AFL

So do North

 

[ABAB]

So do North

Which is why you are seeing improvement from them this year but they are coming from a longer way back than GCS.