Ovens and Murray

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i have already well and truly put my money where my mouth is, don't worry about that. $3 was a great price this time last week, as a wang victory in the derby was only going to see them shorten up significantly. It was more the manner of the victory that is making $3 look way overs. But as i said the other day, it's a long season, and i reckon at this time last year yarra were odds on and didn't even make the GF.

And far from declaring wang over the line, i gave a fair assessment of how i thought the wang v rovers clash would pan out, which i might add was pretty close to the money. Wang backline just too strong for a very talented forward line, midfield even early but wang got on top through depth of quality in 2nd half and wang key forwards had it all over rovers tall defenders especially once the supply increased in both quantity and quality.

as for determining the value of the flag market, i look at it this way. There are 10 teams. You can immediately rule 6 out of contention for the flag - myrt, raiders, c/r, lavi, nth alb, alb. That leaves 4 live chances. Odds of 2-1 (ie $3.00 in current bookmaker speak) implies that wang has a 33.33% chance of winning the flag. Therefore, if the finals series was played 3 times, wang would be expected to win the flag once. Given there are only 3 other chances, they will each share the other 66.67% of winning opportunity. Split equally between rovers, wodonga and yarra, this would give each a 22.23% chance of winning the flag, which equates to odds of around 4.50 or 7/2 each. That is far too close in the market to the team that is clearly the best in the comp right now. Therefore, $3 was big overs.

well not only do you have too much time on your but you have just provided a very detailed mathematical (or chemical not sure) equation that proves nothing towards your originally argument... correct me if im wrong but you implied that an unknown somebody placed a BALLSY bet on maggies for the flag at $3...(forgive me for not knowing the bet amount!) now your equations and statistics are reflecting how the odds of $3 are way overs... to me, the fella who has obviously got money to spend, has placed a most logical bet as your jargon above highlights!! and i have not once stated that the wang odds are unders... so not sure if there should be any further argument?
 
anyone see any of the O&M games over the weekend? anything noteworthy to report?

Corowa won by 4 goals, could have won by 14 goals if they had of kicked straight. Very lacklustre game. Carpenter was probably the best for Corowa.

Murray Longmire returned to the club to help Toss out on gamedays. Will only be part time for the first few games due to work but will give some good advice to the young blokes at the club. Very smart football brain.
 

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Can anyone out there tell me how the two Corryong boys Evan Nicholas and Matty Jefferies went playing for Myrtleford on saturday? I see Matty got a best - was this a legitimate best or just Myrtleford trying to bribe him into staying with them?
 
Just a couple of thoughts.

Wouldn't mind spending some time talking about the Panthers, a team which is often neglected in this thread, probably due to the dearth of supporters.

How would other keen followers rate the Panthers this year? From my point of view, I liken them to North Melbourne of 2007. A team which isn't riddled with super stars, but are coached well with a clever game plan which is built around the strengths of the team. I don't think it's a stretch to say Lavington have one of the fittest lists in the leagues following a big pre-season, and have had some really good additions to the list, in particular Luke Norton-Smith. Norton-Smith was in the top couple of ruckmen in the SydneyAFL (representing the league on a couple of occasions) and has impressive skills for a big man, as well as having the ability to push up forward and expose his direct opponent.

Away from the Panthers, is it too early to say that the Rovers have been a little overrated by some? I know I pencilled them in for a top three finish at the start of the year, but they had a disappointing result against Lavington in partcular, a game they would've expected to win going into it.

Some food for thought.
 
Just a couple of thoughts.

Wouldn't mind spending some time talking about the Panthers, a team which is often neglected in this thread, probably due to the dearth of supporters.

How would other keen followers rate the Panthers this year? From my point of view, I liken them to North Melbourne of 2007. A team which isn't riddled with super stars, but are coached well with a clever game plan which is built around the strengths of the team. I don't think it's a stretch to say Lavington have one of the fittest lists in the leagues following a big pre-season, and have had some really good additions to the list, in particular Luke Norton-Smith. Norton-Smith was in the top couple of ruckmen in the SydneyAFL (representing the league on a couple of occasions) and has impressive skills for a big man, as well as having the ability to push up forward and expose his direct opponent.

Away from the Panthers, is it too early to say that the Rovers have been a little overrated by some? I know I pencilled them in for a top three finish at the start of the year, but they had a disappointing result against Lavington in partcular, a game they would've expected to win going into it.

Some food for thought.

Lavington were very very good against a below par Rovers outfit on the weekend and i believe and i have said it before that lavington could be the smoky this year... you are right in saying they are well coached too... very disciplined and structured performance against rovers!!

as for the rovers, overrated or just not playing to their strengths or to the best of their ability at the moment they are a very good side when they stick to their gameplan of moving the ball quick and relentless running not disimilar to hawthorn but that just hasnt happened the first few weeks and if they dish up what they did on saturday night in the future the same result will occur...however the first 3 weeks i believe they have played 3 of the top 5 teams in the comp and are 1-2 beating the bulldogs comfortably playing 2 quarters of decent footy losing the derby to a classy magpie outfit after only playing 1 quarter of their brand of footy and still being within a couple of kicks up until halfway through the last and last week played half a quarter against lavi who should have probably put them away... im not making excuses because if they cant get their game together against the good sides then that proves they arent up to it but i just think being a young team with alot of good players, we may see the best of them a bit later on...
 
Long time reader first time poster. Currently living in London and will be for the 2008 season after playing most of the last 8 years in the comp, hoping to keep a bit of an eye on the league.
I see wang will be the team to beat, i'm sure they'll enjoy that after the horror run they had some years back.
Good to see Lavi have made a decent start to the year. Can't believe the old fossil K Bahr is back playing again, he loves it, but he prob still can't kick over a jam tin.

Keep up the discussions, opinions, rumours and occasional 'facts'.
 
Long time reader first time poster. Currently living in London and will be for the 2008 season after playing most of the last 8 years in the comp, hoping to keep a bit of an eye on the league.
I see wang will be the team to beat, i'm sure they'll enjoy that after the horror run they had some years back.
Good to see Lavi have made a decent start to the year. Can't believe the old fossil K Bahr is back playing again, he loves it, but he prob still can't kick over a jam tin.

Keep up the discussions, opinions, rumours and occasional 'facts'.
does that 'head16' have a distinctive box shape:cool:
 

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does that 'head16' have a distinctive box shape:cool:

Yes it is rather Boxish in shape. Prob wasn't the most secretive of names i could've chosen, but believe it or not Box16 was already taken and i'm not worried too much about remaining anonymous. Being on the other side of the world will mean i won't have lots to contribute, but we'll see what happens.:D
 
Anyone hear how the tigers/pigeons game panned out, just wondering what is it that the tigers lack that will allow them to beat the better sides in the competition, on paper the side is good enough to be more than competitive. Do they need to inject some pace into the midfield and look at more rotations? Only slight changes have to be made for the tigers to be a real threat in 08. Can anyone update me on the form of young mulraney in the early game?
 
Anyone hear how the tigers/pigeons game panned out, just wondering what is it that the tigers lack that will allow them to beat the better sides in the competition, on paper the side is good enough to be more than competitive. Do they need to inject some pace into the midfield and look at more rotations? Only slight changes have to be made for the tigers to be a real threat in 08. Can anyone update me on the form of young mulraney in the early game?

Talented young player has moved to Albury from Queanbeyan Tigers via Sydney. His name is Scott Campbell. Just wondering if anyone has picked him up yet ?.
 
Can anyone out there tell me how the two Corryong boys Evan Nicholas and Matty Jefferies went playing for Myrtleford on saturday? I see Matty got a best - was this a legitimate best or just Myrtleford trying to bribe him into staying with them?


I went down to have a look on Sat. Myrt pretty similar to previous weeks in that they seem to really have a crack for first 2 qtrs only to loose focus and the smaller players got sucked into contests which ment their opponents got 50-100 mtrs in the clear. Consequently Dogs ran them off their legs.

Dogs looking good. Found many goal kickers even when Bradshaw got smashed by Martinelo who was rightly judged best for Myrt. Shir not in best but it was obvious he such a key player for them. Made alot of saints players look silly with his ubundant class.

Speaking of Corryong boys, Cam Purss is starting to look fit and had some great patches of play and another one of the Purss's, I think Tristen took about 12-14 marks starting at full fullward before pushing up the ground to fill the hole McIntyre left, who seems lost at CHF. I think they confussed the 2 when giving the best.

In answer to your question. I did see a tough new face on the backline, prob Jeffries. He did actually play quite well. Myrt would love him on the list. It is prob a bit of both as far as getting him to sign.
 
I went down to have a look on Sat. Myrt pretty similar to previous weeks in that they seem to really have a crack for first 2 qtrs only to loose focus and the smaller players got sucked into contests which ment their opponents got 50-100 mtrs in the clear. Consequently Dogs ran them off their legs.

Dogs looking good. Found many goal kickers even when Bradshaw got smashed by Martinelo who was rightly judged best for Myrt. Shir not in best but it was obvious he such a key player for them. Made alot of saints players look silly with his ubundant class.

Speaking of Corryong boys, Cam Purss is starting to look fit and had some great patches of play and another one of the Purss's, I think Tristen took about 12-14 marks starting at full fullward before pushing up the ground to fill the hole McIntyre left, who seems lost at CHF. I think they confussed the 2 when giving the best.

In answer to your question. I did see a tough new face on the backline, prob Jeffries. He did actually play quite well. Myrt would love him on the list. It is prob a bit of both as far as getting him to sign.

Yeah if Myrt can have all purss boys in top form at once they'll definately have some options for athletic talls around the ground.

Also heard jeffries went well from a fellow player. has good attack on the ball, very rarely intimidated by bigger opponents. only thing which may let him down at OM level is his fitness with a minimal preseason
 
I went down to have a look on Sat. Myrt pretty similar to previous weeks in that they seem to really have a crack for first 2 qtrs only to loose focus and the smaller players got sucked into contests which ment their opponents got 50-100 mtrs in the clear. Consequently Dogs ran them off their legs.

Dogs looking good. Found many goal kickers even when Bradshaw got smashed by Martinelo who was rightly judged best for Myrt. Shir not in best but it was obvious he such a key player for them. Made alot of saints players look silly with his ubundant class.

Speaking of Corryong boys, Cam Purss is starting to look fit and had some great patches of play and another one of the Purss's, I think Tristen took about 12-14 marks starting at full fullward before pushing up the ground to fill the hole McIntyre left, who seems lost at CHF. I think they confussed the 2 when giving the best.

In answer to your question. I did see a tough new face on the backline, prob Jeffries. He did actually play quite well. Myrt would love him on the list. It is prob a bit of both as far as getting him to sign.

I'm pretty sure Mcintire took the 12-14marks? Thought bradshaw was well and truly done by martinello.
 
Yes it is rather Boxish in shape. Prob wasn't the most secretive of names i could've chosen, but believe it or not Box16 was already taken and i'm not worried too much about remaining anonymous. Being on the other side of the world will mean i won't have lots to contribute, but we'll see what happens.:D

Minding those Pommy kids would be a tad harder than beating Rexy in a 50 metre sprint wouldn't it?????;)
 
Minding those Pommy kids would be a tad harder than beating Rexy in a 50 metre sprint wouldn't it?????;)

Well done Head16 for basically making yourself known(Lavington I presume). Not many others are keen to follow your example. I don't think I know you but I am now keen for you to bag the s... out of someone to see if we get some interesting replies to you personally?

Want to have a crack considering you are OS? Best /worst players maybe?
 
I'm pretty sure Mcintire took the 12-14marks? Thought bradshaw was well and truly done by martinello.

Yeah I saw him get a few cheap ones on the boundary. Had zero impact. For someone who is rated highly by some, it is interesting that the saints fail often across chf when he plays there. Tristen did take alot of marks tho and most were contested.

Anyones thoughts on Raiders? I haven't read much about them on here. Would be difficult for Prior to get a taste of the pill with the ball at the other end....
 
Minding those Pommy kids would be a tad harder than beating Rexy in a 50 metre sprint wouldn't it?????;)

Very good comment. Seriously i've got a better chance of beating rex over 50m than i have managing some of the kids over here. It'd prob involve me kicking him in the shins at the start and cutting him off in the last few steps but i figure i'm used to doing that sort of stuff. I'll have a go at it when i get back
 
Well done Head16 for basically making yourself known(Lavington I presume). Not many others are keen to follow your example. I don't think I know you but I am now keen for you to bag the s... out of someone to see if we get some interesting replies to you personally?

Want to have a crack considering you are OS? Best /worst players maybe?

Yeah mate, panthers are my team. Interesting idea you have, i'd love to tee up on one and all. but unfortunately my alias means they'd have a very good chance of knowing who i am, and unfortunately i was no superstar when i managed to pull the jumper on.
Who knows a few pints one nite and i mite open up.
i'm prob more likely to stir up a few Lavi boys then anything else. I don't care if i upset them.

Best players in the league, most of these will be the main ball winners and prob mid-fielders. They'll be in no particular order, unable to inlcude new players as i haven't seen them.

McCormick
Maher
Stevens (knee, i know)
Shir
Doswell
McMillan (think he's gone, but he smashed me a few times)
X Leslie
Ednie
Butler
Cosgriff
MacAllister
Piltz
Schmidt
D Leslie
McKimmie
A Hill
Tucci
Pendergast (not guy)
Myrt ??
Raiders ??

Some i've prob left out, and i've prob put in more panthers than anyone else, but i've seen the Lavi boys play week in week out for years so i know their value.
But i'd reckon the blokes i've listed would get their fair share of votes in their respective B&F's come years end.

There you go chew on that for a while.
 
Yeah mate, panthers are my team. Interesting idea you have, i'd love to tee up on one and all. but unfortunately my alias means they'd have a very good chance of knowing who i am, and unfortunately i was no superstar when i managed to pull the jumper on.
Who knows a few pints one nite and i mite open up.
i'm prob more likely to stir up a few Lavi boys then anything else. I don't care if i upset them.

Best players in the league, most of these will be the main ball winners and prob mid-fielders. They'll be in no particular order, unable to inlcude new players as i haven't seen them.

McCormick
Maher
Stevens (knee, i know)
Shir
Doswell
McMillan (think he's gone, but he smashed me a few times)
X Leslie
Ednie
Butler
Cosgriff
MacAllister
Piltz
Schmidt
D Leslie
McKimmie
A Hill
Tucci
Pendergast (not guy)
Myrt ??
Raiders ??

Some i've prob left out, and i've prob put in more panthers than anyone else, but i've seen the Lavi boys play week in week out for years so i know their value.
But i'd reckon the blokes i've listed would get their fair share of votes in their respective B&F's come years end.

There you go chew on that for a while.

I thought that hog (and no i dont mean someone who doesnt pass the ball) runnin around for lavy this year was Guy Pendergast. Geez those boys look the same. Im only goin off that picture on the back page of the border mail a few weeks ago as a reference :thumbsu:
 
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