i have already well and truly put my money where my mouth is, don't worry about that. $3 was a great price this time last week, as a wang victory in the derby was only going to see them shorten up significantly. It was more the manner of the victory that is making $3 look way overs. But as i said the other day, it's a long season, and i reckon at this time last year yarra were odds on and didn't even make the GF.
And far from declaring wang over the line, i gave a fair assessment of how i thought the wang v rovers clash would pan out, which i might add was pretty close to the money. Wang backline just too strong for a very talented forward line, midfield even early but wang got on top through depth of quality in 2nd half and wang key forwards had it all over rovers tall defenders especially once the supply increased in both quantity and quality.
as for determining the value of the flag market, i look at it this way. There are 10 teams. You can immediately rule 6 out of contention for the flag - myrt, raiders, c/r, lavi, nth alb, alb. That leaves 4 live chances. Odds of 2-1 (ie $3.00 in current bookmaker speak) implies that wang has a 33.33% chance of winning the flag. Therefore, if the finals series was played 3 times, wang would be expected to win the flag once. Given there are only 3 other chances, they will each share the other 66.67% of winning opportunity. Split equally between rovers, wodonga and yarra, this would give each a 22.23% chance of winning the flag, which equates to odds of around 4.50 or 7/2 each. That is far too close in the market to the team that is clearly the best in the comp right now. Therefore, $3 was big overs.
well not only do you have too much time on your but you have just provided a very detailed mathematical (or chemical not sure) equation that proves nothing towards your originally argument... correct me if im wrong but you implied that an unknown somebody placed a BALLSY bet on maggies for the flag at $3...(forgive me for not knowing the bet amount!) now your equations and statistics are reflecting how the odds of $3 are way overs... to me, the fella who has obviously got money to spend, has placed a most logical bet as your jargon above highlights!! and i have not once stated that the wang odds are unders... so not sure if there should be any further argument?