Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[rko121]

Thoughts on this deal?

Deal 1:

Melb give Oliver & pick 25
Melb get Ben King & pick 4

GC give pick 4 & King
GC get Oliver & pick 25

Deal 2:

Melb give pick 4 & 5 (will be 5 & 6 after McKay compo)
Melb get pick 2

NM give pick 2
NM get pick 4 & 5

Deal 3:

Melb give pick 2, 13 & future 1st or Grundy compo
Melb get pick 1

WC give pick 1
WC get pick 2, 13 & future 1st or Grundy compo

Overall:

Melb: King & pick 1 (Reid)
GC: Oliver & Pick 25 (for academy points)
NM: Picks 4, 5, 14 & 20 (along with Mckay compo)
WC: Picks 2, 13 & future 1st round or Grundy compo pick (Will easily still get Curtin).

I don't see a loser in these deals.

So North potentially end up with picks 3,5 and 6 after Mckay's compo and West Coast get 2, 13 and F1?
No thanks!

 

[Dom sheed pocket]

Really hard to know targets currently.

Reid will go 1. Likely bid on Walter at 2. If North holds 2 and 3 would be shocked if we didn’t go Curtin Mckertcher. Hawks I had pinned for Dursma. If Eagles got that pick Dursma or Watson?

Next year 1st for Hawks would be dangerous for them. Could be a top 4 pick.

I don’t think it’s that hard to project the first 3.

Harley the obvious pick 1, North have been linked to both Watson and North with their picks.

If North decide not to take Curtin, West Coast would take him with one of their picks and they’d still be in play for one of McKercher/Duursma.

Spanner in the works would be Melbourne. If they trade Clarry to NM for eg.

Who would they take with that pick? Probably Duursma.

Either way you look at it, West Coast will have access to two of McKercher, Duursma Curtin.

 

[eaglevision]

I

I'd be more interested in that tbh, because we'll probably take the same player at Hawks pick as we would at North's.

2x top 5 mids next year would also be very appealing.

Not sure why Brockman would be a part of it though, considering O'Brien's answer about it yesterday.

would be very nervous assuming Hawks F1 is a top 5 pick.

 

[Farang83150]

WC stupid list decisions NM stupid list decisions

 

[bzparkes]

I

would be very nervous assuming Hawks F1 is a top 5 pick.

1 significant injury to Mitch Lewis and it will be.

They need to get Chol to have another target.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Damn VIC bias from checks notes 'SEN WA Breakfast'.


View attachment 1821675

"This is what I would do" is alot different to pretending to know what WC are thinking. Also no mention of what else comes with the trade? I'd do it too for 2&3.

Same guy also come out with these completely uncontroversial not meant for clicks takes

 

[bzparkes]

"This is what I would do" is alot different to pretending to know what WC are thinking. Also no mention of what else comes with the trade? I'd do it too for 2&3.

Same guy also come out with these completely uncontroversial not meant for clicks takes

Been taking notes from Kane Cornes, it seems.

Yes, Chesser will want to go home, despite not even entering year 1 of a 2 year contract extension, having his first year wiped out by injury and being given minutes to develop in the AFL when he wasn't deserving of them.

Literally just started his career and already needs a 'fresh start'.

Try again at the end of 2025.

What a ****ing idiot.

 

[Big_Birdy]

West Coast hasn’t even got in the car to drive down the road and meet Curtin by all accounts.

We could have picks 2,3,4 and 5 and I still doubt he ends up at the Eagles.

 

[Sphynx]

I don’t think it’s that hard to project the first 3.

Harley the obvious pick 1, North have been linked to both Watson and North with their picks.

If North decide not to take Curtin, West Coast would take him with one of their picks and they’d still be in play for one of McKercher/Duursma.

Spanner in the works would be Melbourne. If they trade Clarry to NM for eg.

Who would they take with that pick? Probably Duursma.

Either way you look at it, West Coast will have access to two of McKercher, Duursma Curtin.

Only if North is involved in a trade.

 

[Sphynx]

This is just delusional. No recruiter in the league would take McKercher over Reid.

Walter is the closest prospect to Reid and that is because he is KPP. Reid is clearly the best talent in the draft as it stands.

Still think WCE should create a bidding war and cash in on the hype. But even accounting for the hype McKercher is not on his level.

Yes, he's ahead of him on most boards, but there's not a huge gap like is made out.

McKercher won the Morrish medal off of 9 games with 6 BOG's going at 34 disposals and 1.2 goals per game with elite speed and power.

He backed that up by averaging 33 touches and 0.8 goals per game at the carnival.


You can bookmark this for next year and the year after if you like.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Yes, he's ahead of him on most boards, but there's not a huge gap like is made out.

McKercher won the Morrish medal off of 9 games with 6 BOG's going at 34 disposals and 1.2 goals per game with elite speed and power.

He backed that up by averaging 33 touches and 0.8 goals per game at the carnival.


You can bookmark this for next year and the year after if you like.

There’s a great chance McKercher will end up a better player. I have been big on the fact that Reid will more than likely not be the best player of this draft. That doesn’t mean he isn’t the clear number 1 (disregarding Walter).

What you said was North and others would currently prefer McKercher over Reid. I think that is incredibly delusional. Why target pick 1 at all then?

 

[Sphynx]

There’s a great chance McKercher will end up a better player. I have been big on the fact that Reid will more than likely not be the best player of this draft. That doesn’t mean he isn’t the clear number 1 (disregarding Walter).

What you said was North and others would currently prefer McKercher over Reid. I think that is incredibly delusional. Why target pick 1 at all then?

I said the supporters would prefer McKercher.

I agree, as I think from a list balance perspective, he suits us a lot better.

I never stated he was #1 on our or any boards, when I said Reid wasn't #1 on half the boards in the AFL, I was referring to Walter.

 

[Barrybran]

It's not horrible. It's not going to get over the line either.

What does Hawthorn expect for Brockman?

I think the Hawks are pushing close to the 8 and potentially even fighting for an elimination final next year. That makes their F1 somewhere between 6-11. West Coast board are chasing Brockman for a third rounder.

The risk of losing out on Reid or McKercher is partially mitigated by the ability to get Duursma. If North take some combination of Sanders, Watson and Curtin we would get McKercher at a bargain price.

This pretty much makes this deal, on average, 3, 8 and a third rounder. It's close but it's missing something.

 

[the big lebowski]

My gut says Duursma will be a star.



On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

My gut says I need to go to the toilet

 

[Hava Alle]

So North potentially end up with picks 3,5 and 6 after Mckay's compo and West Coast get 2, 13 and F1?
No thanks!

Trade somebody of value and get a compo pick if you want more.

 

[HeHateMe]

It's not horrible. It's not going to get over the line either.

What does Hawthorn expect for Brockman?

I think the Hawks are pushing close to the 8 and potentially even fighting for an elimination final next year. That makes their F1 somewhere between 6-11. West Coast board are chasing Brockman for a third rounder.

The risk of losing out on Reid or McKercher is partially mitigated by the ability to get Duursma. If North take some combination of Sanders, Watson and Curtin we would get McKercher at a bargain price.

This pretty much makes this deal, on average, 3, 8 and a third rounder. It's close but it's missing something.

Understand the point but us pushing for the 8 is the most optimistic view. Have a look at the teams we would need to move past, your most likely outcome is we tread water again or move up a place or 2.

What 5 clubs of the following will Hawthorn move past....
Gold Coast, Fremantle, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Sydney, St.Kilda

You could mount an argument for a couple but not really a confident one on most.

Pick 3 - 6 range is probably a fairer take than 8.

 

[Barrybran]

Understand the point but us pushing for the 8 is the most optimistic view. Have a look at the teams we would need to move past, your most likely outcome is we tread water again or move up a place or 2.

What 5 clubs of the following will Hawthorn move past....
Gold Coast, Fremantle, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Sydney, St.Kilda

You could mount an argument for a couple but not really a confident one on most.

Pick 3 - 6 range is probably a fairer take than 8.

3 is very 'optimistic' (doesn't really work when you're trying to move up the ladder, does it? ) but I understand your point. FWIW I think Richmond slides while Fremantle, Geelong and Essendon are unknowns. Gold Coast, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Sydney and St Kilda should all be better.

4 is the absolute highest that pick will land. Combining our posts, I'd say 6-7 is more likely. Hawthorn are going to be a competitive team this year and will add either a pick 1 or 3 to their line up.

 

[Bestbird]

Understand the point but us pushing for the 8 is the most optimistic view. Have a look at the teams we would need to move past, your most likely outcome is we tread water again or move up a place or 2.

What 5 clubs of the following will Hawthorn move past....
Gold Coast, Fremantle, Richmond, Geelong, Essendon, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Sydney, St.Kilda

You could mount an argument for a couple but not really a confident one on most.

Pick 3 - 6 range is probably a fairer take than 8.

If i'm West Coast i would rather Hawthorn trade their future pick for one this year.

 

[A1fromDay1]

Realistically the only 2 clubs that can make a deal with the Eagles are North & Hawthorn.

The eagles will ensure that if they get rid of pick 1 they are still getting someone from the top tier in the draft.

Kangas pick 2 + both of next years compensation picks that are end of first round or Hawthorn pick 3 + future 1st seem like fair deals.

 

[Cursedsword02]

Realistically the only 2 clubs that can make a deal with the Eagles are North & Hawthorn.

The eagles will ensure that if they get rid of pick 1 they are still getting someone from the top tier in the draft.

Kangas pick 2 + both of next years compensation picks that are end of first round or Hawthorn pick 3 + future 1st seem like fair deals.

We're not after "fair" though, we're after something that favors us. Basically we're saying "You want Harley, cough 'em up"

 

[ep2018]

North is the only club we'll deal with as we'd only trade down for Curtin imo however appreciate Hawks getting involved now, puts pressure on North of offer more for pick 1. A pseudo bidding war.

 

[A1fromDay1]

North is the only club we'll deal with as we'd only trade down for Curtin imo however appreciate Hawks getting involved now, puts pressure on North of offer more for pick 1. A pseudo bidding war.

From what I've heard Curtin isn't a target for the Roos if they stay put at 2 & 3.

Sounds like McKercher & Watson 2/3.

Which suits Hawthorn as we are eyeing Duursma if we stay put.

 

[Cursedsword02]

From what I've heard Curtin isn't a target for the Roos if they stay put at 2 & 3.

Sounds like McKercher & Watson 2/3.

Which suits Hawthorn as we are eyeing Duursma if we stay put.

Poor Aidan Corr's gonna have to carry the backline on his shoulders next year if that's the case.

 

[A1fromDay1]

Poor Aidan Corr's gonna have to carry the backline on his shoulders next year if that's the case.

Even if they did draft Curtin I don't think even the Roos would be dumb enough to send an 18 year old kid to the wolves.

He wouldn't be asked to replace McKay in year 1.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

It's not horrible. It's not going to get over the line either.

What does Hawthorn expect for Brockman?

I think the Hawks are pushing close to the 8 and potentially even fighting for an elimination final next year. That makes their F1 somewhere between 6-11. West Coast board are chasing Brockman for a third rounder.

The risk of losing out on Reid or McKercher is partially mitigated by the ability to get Duursma. If North take some combination of Sanders, Watson and Curtin we would get McKercher at a bargain price.

This pretty much makes this deal, on average, 3, 8 and a third rounder. It's close but it's missing something.

Eagles need a 3rd top 20 pick. Maybe Hawks grab Norths 2024 pick 19 to add it in.

Still think we say no even to that