Pretty much.
Collingwood averaged 1636 over the first 12 games, 1698 over the last 10. I'll see if I can't dig up a script tonight to run it across all the teams. Then add in a filter for based on games played.-
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Picks For 2011
- Thread starter TheCerealKillee
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Pretty much.
Collingwood averaged 1636 over the first 12 games, 1698 over the last 10. I'll see if I can't dig up a script tonight to run it across all the teams. Then add in a filter for based on games played.
Activ8
Senior List
Hard part is getting the chicken when there is not enough egg.
This is what I believe will be the case too. Interchanges will go off the hook
next year with the one less bench player meaning there will be a higher need for rest. An equation for it may be 22 players x 100% each= 2200% now players will have to work harder to get to the 2200%.
2200/21= 104.76%... what I am trying to get at is players will have to work a little harder than usual meaning interchanges will increase due to the higher demands of running. I also think for the 'modern' day footballer rather than the footballers footballer it will swing in there favour as once again the demands for indurance will be upped.
PS you would be barking mad to not get Swan, I understand the theory but there isn't any two ways about it. Also people must remember for those that say I will get him at a certain time, that he may be out of your grasp (salary wise) by the time the opportunity comes around. Quite simple but I'm not sure everyone appreciates that fact.
Just a bit of food for thought (sorry for it being a bit jumbled) but the points are there.
This is what I believe will be the case too. Interchanges will go off the hook
Not sure if it is physically possible to increase the amount of interchanges when you have one less play on the bench. I would say that the upper interchange amounts will be around 100, with the lower limits around 80.
Are there stats going around on the number of interchanges over the years? By each game?
- Banned
- #531
It will be interesting thats for sure. I actually beg to differ but we wont know until the real season or NAB cup. I think it could be mayhem players will coming on and off alot IMO. The way teams and coaches like to operate now especially Collingwood is if you need a rest on the field a quick 1-2 minute rest than you come off for that rest. I remember listening to Pendlebury and he said he would come off about 2-3 times a quarter and only have 2 mins max rest on the bench. I know hes a genunine midfielder and that 8-12 rotations on the bench a game means around 176 if every player rotates 8 times a game. Personally i can see this continuing and i think players will rotate and only have closer to 1 minute on the bench.
Will be very interesting to see what happens and if it works. But i cant see it doing what the AFL wants and reducing the number of rotations drastically to around 80.
If you have more interchanges, then players are spending more time running on/off the ground. Maybe a reduced interchange will mean more minutes on the ground to get points?
RichoGun
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For me defeners are the worst ones to pick in honesty...Ive got NFI
Activ8
Senior List
Really? I find defenders easier to pick as there is a variety of cheaper options who could potentially average 85+ and become keepers.
The hardest picks for me are the Mids. Main factor being that you would want all the mids on the field to be averaging over 100+. There is a plethora of options to choose from and picking the ones that will breakout and average 20+ or more points over the season is'nt easy.
For example their are a few players who play midfield regularly but seem to struggle to consistently to crack the ton over the season.
Players like Adam Cooney, Luke Power, Bernie Vince, Jordan Lewis, Jarrad McVeigh, Brad Dalziell, Danyle Pearce just to name a few.
All are good players but seem to find it difficult to reach the top echelon of DT midfielders. I guess factors like tags, injuries etc play a big part.
Personally I might look to go the guns/rookie strategy in the mids with 3 rookies starting on the field and trade for guns when they drop in price.
Would be interested to hear other peoples opinions.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
I usually load up on mid rookies. It's where you're going to get the most value from the cheapies, and because there are so many more mid keepers than keepers in any other position, it's also where you're going to be the most likely to have a quality keeper falling in price at the right time, just because there are so many more options.
Pretty much.
So, I had a little look at the data, comparing the first 12 rounds to the last 10.
The two big things that I noticed were-
1. Man, Carlton fell away, didn't they!
2. While the overall count is pretty close to how the ladder played out, Freo shot the moon averaging the 3rd least DT points for the year.
Code:
team points games ave
GEE 21393 264 81.0341
WBD 20338 264 77.0379
STK 20171 264 76.4053
CAR 20140 264 76.2879
COL 19633 264 74.3674
ESS 19316 264 73.1667
BRL 19017 264 72.0341
MEL 18983 264 71.9053
SYD 18697 264 70.8220
HAW 18535 264 70.2083
ADE 18484 264 70.0152
FRE 18419 264 69.7689
WCE 18399 264 69.6932
KAN 18265 264 69.1856
PTA 18200 264 68.9394
RIC 16644 264 63.0455
GEE 17472 220 79.4182 - 1.6
STK 17083 220 77.6500 + 0.6
COL 16985 220 77.2045 + 3
WBD 16796 220 76.3455 - 0.8
MEL 15769 220 71.6773 - 0.3
SYD 15692 220 71.3273 + 0.5
ADE 15685 220 71.2955 + 1.2
HAW 15638 220 71.0818 + 0.8
KAN 15553 220 70.6955 + 0.8
ESS 15293 220 69.5136 - 3.6
BRL 15249 220 69.3136 - 2.7
CAR 15231 220 69.2318 - 7
WCE 14969 220 68.0409 - 1.7
PTA 14798 220 67.2636 - 1.7
FRE 14745 220 67.0227 - 2.7
RIC 14647 220 66.5773 + 3.5I tend to find that because of the high STD, forwards tend to become the biggest bargain thoughout the year.
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
That's not really the point I was making. Even though if you picked one premium forward and one premium midfielder, it's more likely that the particular forward will be a bargain buy at some point, considering the ratio of midfield premiums to forward premiums you're still more likely to have at least one midfield premium at a bargain price on any given week than a forward premium.*
*This isn't based on actual research, just an educated guess.
*This isn't based on actual research, just an educated guess.
I just find it hard to see how they can maintain the high level of rotations with one less player on the bench. At best I can see it maintaining the same level as last year, but personally I see it decreasing.
Still the only real concern is will this decrease the possession counts due to the rule changes. If the possession counts do decrease, that could affect some of the established players a little more. The decrease in bench sizes could also affect the number of cheap rookie options that you can trust. I think the GC factor may help this problem as there should be plenty of cheap cheap options, but it will still be interesting.
Activ8
Senior List
Yeah I agree with what you are saying. Also you can possibly pick a guy like Barlow who would've been a keeper if it was'nt for that terrible injury.
Guess it's about having a good mix of players and trading in the premiums when they fall in price.
When establishing the initial squad I tend to select keepers who have good durability. Although at times I think these sort of players don't get you the extra points you need to be a top contender.
As an example Pavlich is one of the durable players I would select over someone who is injury prone like Chapman. However as we saw this year Chapman outscored Pavlich by 337 points for the year.
I guess thats where a bit of luck comes into it I suppose.
How is this so?
Just because the midfield premiums average higher than any other position, it doesn't mean there are more keepers in the midfield. You still have to nab 6/7 of the top 10 or so premiums from each position in order to have any sort of chance.
Generally your top 5 or so midfield premiums have a low standard deviation and it is quite difficult to get them at a cheaper price (Swan, GAJ). Unlike backs/forwards where you are almost certain of getting them at the low to mid $300k mark (based on 2010 numbers).
Schulzenfest
TheBrownDog
I try to trade in midfield premiums who'll average 100+ and forward/back premiums who'll average 90+ (obviously going higher-end if you can). Last year, 12 forwards averaged 90+, and from there it dropped right down to 87, three points below that threshold. 10 defenders averaged 90+ with two 89's and 4 87's. There were 17 midfielders who averaged 100+, as well as two 99's and a 98. That's the way I look at it.
timster
Team Captain
Yeah great points in the post. The mids are the "easiest" position to fill as you have so many more options compared to other positions. You can probably afford to make more mistakes by in this area compared to say the forwards - where if you don't pick the best players early or from the start you fall behind too quickly.(for overall position anyway).
If you are going for league win it's not such a big deal as tend to have the chance to trade in the forwards at a cheaper price during the season as some stage.
I have a feeling next season - the key will be durability and flexibility. With some many holes to fill during the year with buys and the almost certain rotation of GC players - there will be lots of 0's if you are not careful.
I try to focus on picking the best 2-3 premium keepers in the forwards and backs first then focus on the midfield.
Dunn - Well Done
Cancelled
- Banned
- #545
I agree with what Narkee is saying
You cant state that their are more keepers in the midfielde than in any other position. Because a keepers score is relevant to that of the scores of other players in that position. Lets say you have another position to pick from in DT for case point ill call it "swingman group". However these players are really low scoring but you must pick 6 on the field and 2 on the bench same as the mids for an example. The top player in that group only avgs 30 than you have 17 above the 25 avg similar to that of 17 above the 100 avg in the midfielders in your research. So if your saying players that score above 25 in the "swingman group" and players that score 100 in the midfield group are all keepers than its the same.
Its all relevant to the scoring of that position (120 points is around the highest scoring mid,105 is around the highest scoring forward and 113 i think was the highest scoring back). You cant say one position has more keepers than the other. I hope this is explained half well (really hard to explain). But just because the midfielders score more doesnt mean they have more keepers.
Theres also another way to look out it. Midfielders come with more consistancy because they rely on possessions for the majority of their scoring. Possessions are lowing scoring eg: 2 for handballs, 3 for kicks. Where as some forward rely upon goals worth 6 points for their scoring so some of these players can be quite inconsistant. eg: Fevola when he was a keeper last year (2009) he could kick 10 a game or none. So one game he might score big and another game he might score very little. Also with running backs i feel they can be shut down quite easily with the new offensive tagger role. Fishers, H.Shaw, Gilbees of the DT game can have a huge range of scoring from their worse to their best. Whereas the midfielders have a lesser range of scoring.
You cant state that their are more keepers in the midfielde than in any other position. Because a keepers score is relevant to that of the scores of other players in that position. Lets say you have another position to pick from in DT for case point ill call it "swingman group". However these players are really low scoring but you must pick 6 on the field and 2 on the bench same as the mids for an example. The top player in that group only avgs 30 than you have 17 above the 25 avg similar to that of 17 above the 100 avg in the midfielders in your research. So if your saying players that score above 25 in the "swingman group" and players that score 100 in the midfield group are all keepers than its the same.
Its all relevant to the scoring of that position (120 points is around the highest scoring mid,105 is around the highest scoring forward and 113 i think was the highest scoring back). You cant say one position has more keepers than the other. I hope this is explained half well (really hard to explain). But just because the midfielders score more doesnt mean they have more keepers.
Theres also another way to look out it. Midfielders come with more consistancy because they rely on possessions for the majority of their scoring. Possessions are lowing scoring eg: 2 for handballs, 3 for kicks. Where as some forward rely upon goals worth 6 points for their scoring so some of these players can be quite inconsistant. eg: Fevola when he was a keeper last year (2009) he could kick 10 a game or none. So one game he might score big and another game he might score very little. Also with running backs i feel they can be shut down quite easily with the new offensive tagger role. Fishers, H.Shaw, Gilbees of the DT game can have a huge range of scoring from their worse to their best. Whereas the midfielders have a lesser range of scoring.
L_W_P
@peteplatinum on Instagram
Goddard, Deledio, Bock, Bob Murphy, Adcock, Tarrant, Otten
Swan, Hodge, Judd, Pav, Kerr, Dave Swallow
Sandilands, Petrie
N. Riewoldt, Brennan, Waite, Sidebottom, Tippet, Fevola, Knights
Bench: Hunt, Mzungu, Matt Watson // Wallis, Krakour, Libba // Cordy, Currie // Harper, Matera, Prestia
40k in the bank
This is possible accourding to the Fanplanner website. Took me all of 10 mins to whip up. I get the feeling that we are all going to end up with very much the same team like this year. The deciding factor will be how quickly you get there and who you had as captain along the way.
Hopefully in 2012, when there will be no bye, we can get a price increase and thus less chance of people picking so many guns from the start.
Swan, Hodge, Judd, Pav, Kerr, Dave Swallow
Sandilands, Petrie
N. Riewoldt, Brennan, Waite, Sidebottom, Tippet, Fevola, Knights
Bench: Hunt, Mzungu, Matt Watson // Wallis, Krakour, Libba // Cordy, Currie // Harper, Matera, Prestia
40k in the bank
This is possible accourding to the Fanplanner website. Took me all of 10 mins to whip up. I get the feeling that we are all going to end up with very much the same team like this year. The deciding factor will be how quickly you get there and who you had as captain along the way.
Hopefully in 2012, when there will be no bye, we can get a price increase and thus less chance of people picking so many guns from the start.
timster
Team Captain
hmm perhaps you may have misinterpreted. Your right the level of scoring is not relevant between positions. Just cause mids score/avergage higher doesn't mean there are more keepers.
There are more keepers available to choose from in the mids cause:
- there are more players allocated as Mids then any other position.
- more players average within 5% of the top scoring mid then any other position. There are more mids within 5% of the top scorer than there are forward within 5% of the top forward player etc.
So you have more flexibility and options to choose from when selecting mid keepers.
I doubt all teams are going to look the same.
Bolded players are ones I won't be going near for some reason or another.
Midfield premiums are often higher in quantity, that is you get at least 15-20 that average a level high enough to warrant keeping in your side. However someone like Jobe Watson who average 95-100 in 2010, while a keeper by numbers is not going to average enough to finish in the top 6. The amount of guys who averaged 100+ is higher, which is a good point, though regardless injuries/form mean it is important to pick the top echelon of these players to avoid inconsistency especially as upgrading to the top players may need to be doen early. Picking these upgrades from our rookies is pivotal.
L_W_P
@peteplatinum on Instagram
Not the team I'm going with.
I just jumped on FanPlanner to see how quickly I could build a team of 'Name' players with a bunch of premiums in there. My feeling: Too many. If I went with a pure prem/rookie plan it would be even worse.
I'm just tired of going into a league and seeing that we all have basically the same premium players and rookies. Almost everyone on this board will have the following in their initial team:
Goddard, Deledio (If he's a defender), Swan, Hodge, Pav, Sandilands, Riewoldt, D.Swallow, Mzungu
With a fair few more having Petrie and Otten as returning injured players. That would make 1/3 of our teams pretty much the same.
For me it just saps some of the fun out of it when the only thing making a difference in each game is injuries or captain choice. I'd prefer it if the prices were raised so that, at least in the initial teams, we can't all afford to jump on these guys.
Make people do some thinking or go with their gut. Make the hard calls on players early and make having a guy like Swan or Goddard an absolutle blessing rather than the norm.
Just my 2c
