Picks For 2011

[Ollies]

Wow if Gibbs is a back than ill be locking him in very quickly if hes fit and healthy and gets through preseason.

Uncertainty in his role - Lots of talk about a move back into the midfield which i showed could mean a 110 avg if he is there full time. If not in the midfield he plays the halfback flank quarterback type role. Doesnt get massive numbers disposal wise, but still avg 96 or 97 last year. His durability is also as good as it gets and i would rate it alot better than Deledios even though they have similar amount of games played and missed in the past 3-4 years. Basically i say this because Deledio is carrying alot of tape and has had little problems like an elbow IIRC, a finger ect. Nothing major and hes continued to play on but has shown signs of missing games in the future.

I think some people miss the point in getting a potential midfielder in the backline who has unquestionable durability and avg 97 in that role last year. I just cant seem to see how he can go too far backwards. Similar as to why people picked Enright, Goddard ect last year. Not many though they had much improvement but getting a player who you can rely on as a premium/keeper with great durability especially in the backs is hard to get.

Gibbs is interesting. Much has been said about his move to the backline being a concern for DT but he actually had his highest score (166 vs WCE in round 10) playing the quarterback role across half back. In some later rounds he played predominantly midfield and scored much lower although it must be said that he usually had a job to do in those games.

Others have also scored just as heavily off half back as they have done in the mids. Its therefore probably his classification that is the key here as if he is classified as a back he does tick all the boxes as a premium back with the bonus of significant potential upside based on previous performances.

 

[borrat]

curnow should be a good pick once he fully recovers from his knee reco

and no sewell he would have been a really good dt/sc player

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

What do you think of Jack Grimes as a better option DWD?

Nah not for me, way to many question marks on durability. But he could be worth the risk. I might take both of them, havnt really looked at prices ect but wouldnt take him ahead of Gibbs.

curnow should be a good pick once he fully recovers from his knee reco

and no sewell he would have been a really good dt/sc player

Some good rookie and preseason draft picks. I think there will be plenty that get games as recruiters have gone for the more mature aged options.

Unfortunate Giles didnt get through to an AFL team that will be playing next year. Wouldve been good if he got to essendon and been a 4th ruck spot.

Curnow, Pederson ect should offer really good value but will depend on how many veterans those teams have and if any LTIs occur to know if they should be in our starting teams.

 

[Walesy]

Unfortunate Giles didnt get through to an AFL team that will be playing next year. Wouldve been good if he got to essendon and been a 4th ruck spot.

Should have a lock on the spot for 2012 though.

 

[Lakey91]

Gibbs is interesting. Much has been said about his move to the backline being a concern for DT but he actually had his highest score (166 vs WCE in round 10) playing the quarterback role across half back. In some later rounds he played predominantly midfield and scored much lower although it must be said that he usually had a job to do in those games.

Others have also scored just as heavily off half back as they have done in the mids. Its therefore probably his classification that is the key here as if he is classified as a back he does tick all the boxes as a premium back with the bonus of significant potential upside based on previous performances.

True, but I dont know if this is going to be a continuing trend into the future. The role of a defensive forward became more and more prominent throughout 2010 and I think in the future those quarterbacks are going to get less of a free run - particularly since those who have played that defensive HF role have overall been very very successful. Obviously there are those freaks who you can do nothing about when they play that role (eg hodge when he goes back there), but I dont think Gibbs fits this bill.

As you said though, he also got jobs.

See my previous post, but I think Gibbs was just being put through a development process, and that we should see him back into the midfield for the majority of his time in 2011.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Should have a lock on the spot for 2012 though.

I guess we have had some pretty good 3rd ruck options over the past years.

Warnock>Z.Smith>Giles

Even before these times i cant remember having a struggle to pick a 3rd ruck because there was none.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

True, but I dont know if this is going to be a continuing trend into the future. The role of a defensive forward became more and more prominent throughout 2010 and I think in the future those quarterbacks are going to get less of a free run - particularly since those who have played that defensive HF role have overall been very very successful. Obviously there are those freaks who you can do nothing about when they play that role (eg hodge when he goes back there), but I dont think Gibbs fits this bill.

As you said though, he also got jobs.

See my previous post, but I think Gibbs was just being put through a development process, and that we should see him back into the midfield for the majority of his time in 2011.

I agree with the offensive forwards. A reason i was wary of picking these types of running backs last year.

The good thing with Gibbs is that if he does get shut down across half back than he is very capable of moving into the midfield or even playing forward as shown in his early days.

 

[Ollies]

True, but I dont know if this is going to be a continuing trend into the future. The role of a defensive forward became more and more prominent throughout 2010 and I think in the future those quarterbacks are going to get less of a free run - particularly since those who have played that defensive HF role have overall been very very successful. Obviously there are those freaks who you can do nothing about when they play that role (eg hodge when he goes back there), but I dont think Gibbs fits this bill.

As you said though, he also got jobs.

See my previous post, but I think Gibbs was just being put through a development process, and that we should see him back into the midfield for the majority of his time in 2011.

Defensive forwards have been a feature of the game for 3 years. Some such as Shaw have more difficulty handling them than others but the fact remains that the majority of the leading backs play that quarterback role. I'd go as far as to say that apart from Lake (for whom you could still mount a case) that the other top 10 all play a similar role to that being undertaken by Gibbs.

He may well get a defensive forward but he is reasonably well equipped to combat it as he has elite endurance and takes a good mark so his teamates have opportunity to exploit any weaknesses the defensive forward has. For example I'd back him in against the likes of Alwyn Davey and others of that ilk.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Defensive forwards have been a feature of the game for 3 years. Some such as Shaw have more difficulty handling them than others but the fact remains that the majority of the leading backs play that quarterback role. I'd go as far as to say that apart from Lake (for whom you could still mount a case) that the other top 10 all play a similar role to that being undertaken by Gibbs.

He may well get a defensive forward but he is reasonably well equipped to combat it as he has elite endurance and takes a good mark so his teamates have opportunity to exploit any weaknesses the defensive forward has. For example I'd back him in against the likes of Alwyn Davey and others of that ilk.

Yep, good post.

Also what Hodgey did was play on some good forwards that didnt have the defensive side to their game. We saw this with Motlop as an example when Gibbs played on him similar to that of what Hodge was doing in 08.

Also you cant shutdown every creative halfback a team has, otheriwse you will struggle to kick goals. Collingwood started having one of Maxwell, Obrien, H.Shaw tagged one week and the other two dominate the other week. Carlton have a very underrated HBF in Russell who will cut you up if let loose, so he will get attention aswell. Also the major strength as i mentioned for Gibbs is that he can play in any other position on the ground (forward, midfield).

Why are we talking about this when Gibbs will play midfield anyway

 

[Activ8]

Nah not for me, way to many question marks on durability. But he could be worth the risk. I might take both of them, havnt really looked at prices ect but wouldnt take him ahead of Gibbs.

Good answer. Agree if Gibbs is listed as a back he is a lock. One thing that concerns me about Carlton is that they have quite alot of players who rotate through the midfield who are capable of pinching points off each other.

ie. Judd, Murphy, Simpson, Gibbs, Mclean, Scotland, Russell even a Robinson. I guess the point I am trying to make is that I can't see one of these guys excelling to become a Swan/Goddard top echelon type player.

Understand the comparison between backs/mids isn't the best example however.... Although Grimes has been injury prone throughout his career, if he can manage to get on the park week in week out I think he is value. Similar to Gibbs as a defender.

With a developing team like Melbourne, who should go alright this year, I would expect a player like Grimes to gain further opportunities to score heavily. Also taking Bruce's exit into consideration, and the fact the guys like Scully / Trengrove are still developing, you'd think it would only enhance his chances.

 

[Lakey91]

Of course there have always been those good rebounding backman who have been given more attention. I think that the zone style play was revolutionised in 2009 by St Kilda (much like the pies have that forward pressure and ability to squeeze the opposition, causing errors across the ground - this was the feature of 2010 IMO), meaing that a lot of players were able to get free and rack it up behind the ball - particularly good ball users who were obviously given it by their team-mates. In 2010 though, we started to see basically every team working to shut down the oppositions best user in the back half. Normally people would just target the Shaws and Kennelly's, and when there isnt anyone just play like a normal forward. But these days, I reckon nearly every week there is a job for a defensive forward (whereas in the past this hasnt been the case).

I am not sure about Gibbs motor being that big a factor either - maybe through the middle - but in the back half you still need discipline to be close enough to any potential contest to have an impact (particularly in that role). I also think his ability to break a tag isnt something we know a great deal about - and we also might never find out as long as judd is around. So I think the jury is out on this one.

He isnt likely to play on an alwyn davey either - defensive forwards are typically stronger bodied players IMO.

Overall, I am of the opinion that Gibbs was pushed down back as part of his development in 2010, and that he will return to the midfield in 2011. Even if he stays down back though, its hard to see him not averaging at least the same - I just dont think an increase in output is definite if he plays that quarterback role due to the counteractive roles and structures clubs now use against these players.

Hope this all makes sense.

EDIT: The idea of pinching points isnt *that* valid IMO. Top teams (Geelong, Saints, eg) have multiple high scorers and they share the ball around more. Maybe by game to game the scores might be 120, 120, 100, 80 between 4 players in a gun side like this, but throughout the season they have enough 120s to counteract any of the 80s they cop. I would also rate gibbs a much better accumulator than just about anyone in the blues side - Judd and Murphy up there too.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Good answer. Agree if Gibbs is listed as a back he is a lock. One thing that concerns me about Carlton is that they have quite alot of players who rotate through the midfield who are capable of pinching points off each other.

ie. Judd, Murphy, Simpson, Gibbs, Mclean, Scotland, Russell even a Robinson. I guess the point I am trying to make is that I can't see one of these guys excelling to become a Swan/Goddard top echelon type player.

Understand the comparison between backs/mids isn't the best example however.... Although Grimes has been injury prone throughout his career, if he can manage to get on the park week in week out I think he is value. Similar to Gibbs as a defender.

With a developing team like Melbourne, who should go alright this year, I would expect a player like Grimes to gain further opportunities to score heavily. Also taking Bruce's exit into consideration, and the fact the guys like Scully / Trengrove are still developing, you'd think it would only enhance his chances.

Dont worry about this when picking players or not

Geelong with Ablett, Bartel, Chapman, Selwood, Corey, S.Johnson didnt have a problem with it.

Stkilda with Hayes, Goddard, Montagna, Dal Santo also didnt have that problem

Hawthorn the same in there 08 season. Hodge, Lewis, Mitchell, Sewell, Bateman, Crawford ect

Collingwood aswell Swan, Pendles, Didak, Davis (certain years), Thomas, Ball ect.

The better the team the more points they score is generally the way it works. However with Melbourne they have shown they are a good scoring even though not that good. So they could see a continue rise in improvement from several players including possibly Grimes.

 

[Tom12]

It becomes relevant in some cases, Kelly for example.
His scores are greatly improved when key personnel from Geelong's midfield are missing.

 

[Activ8]

Good points you make guys.

Will be interesting to see how Carlton performs in 2011. I was under the impression they would've performed a little better in 2010, potential top 4 contender possibly. I'm not sure if they will get to the dominance level of Collingwood / Geelong next year.

A good comparison is the Hawks in 08 where they pulled out a big year and became major contenders. I would'nt think that a big year for Carlton would be out of their reach in 2011.

Will have to wait and see.

 

[Lakey91]

Youre in the minority then if you thought carlton was looking the goods for 2010. I think most people had them finishing outside the eight - with fev gone, most people wondered how things would work up front for them (ie, they thought it wouldnt work at all). A year of consolidation was always on the cards IMO, and they did well to win a final (thats improvement right there). 2011 could be the year of improvement though with the Dogs ageing, and Geelong having its own concerns and Freo carrying a lot of tired young bodies with them.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

I certainly wont pick Lids as a midfielder but im saying if hes a back hes just about a lock.

Err...

Gibbs and Deledio

Both would be in my side and my plans for next year where ever they are positioned.

 

[Pumbi]

Err...

Trust me, I wouldn't even bother.

 

[Ollies]

Of course there have always been those good rebounding backman who have been given more attention. I think that the zone style play was revolutionised in 2009 by St Kilda (much like the pies have that forward pressure and ability to squeeze the opposition, causing errors across the ground - this was the feature of 2010 IMO), meaing that a lot of players were able to get free and rack it up behind the ball - particularly good ball users who were obviously given it by their team-mates. In 2010 though, we started to see basically every team working to shut down the oppositions best user in the back half. Normally people would just target the Shaws and Kennelly's, and when there isnt anyone just play like a normal forward. But these days, I reckon nearly every week there is a job for a defensive forward (whereas in the past this hasnt been the case).

I am not sure about Gibbs motor being that big a factor either - maybe through the middle - but in the back half you still need discipline to be close enough to any potential contest to have an impact (particularly in that role). I also think his ability to break a tag isnt something we know a great deal about - and we also might never find out as long as judd is around. So I think the jury is out on this one.

He isnt likely to play on an alwyn davey either - defensive forwards are typically stronger bodied players IMO.

Overall, I am of the opinion that Gibbs was pushed down back as part of his development in 2010, and that he will return to the midfield in 2011. Even if he stays down back though, its hard to see him not averaging at least the same - I just dont think an increase in output is definite if he plays that quarterback role due to the counteractive roles and structures clubs now use against these players.

Hope this all makes sense.

EDIT: The idea of pinching points isnt *that* valid IMO. Top teams (Geelong, Saints, eg) have multiple high scorers and they share the ball around more. Maybe by game to game the scores might be 120, 120, 100, 80 between 4 players in a gun side like this, but throughout the season they have enough 120s to counteract any of the 80s they cop. I would also rate gibbs a much better accumulator than just about anyone in the blues side - Judd and Murphy up there too.

I understand your point about being positioned to contest but my point about Gibbs motor is that when the ball turns over he is well place to make position to receive and create the run forward.

I beg to differ about the type of players that are traditionally defensive forwards.

Anyway probably time to move on from Gibbs. The consensus appears to be that if he is a back he's a safe premium pick as he will score well enough to be in the top ten backs even if played as a back by Ratten and if played midfield then even better. Mind you same can be said for Deledio, Broughton and Grimes and we can't pick them all can we?

Lakey touched on a point I'd like to elaborate on about good sides having plenty of good scorers rather than players pinching points from each other. This is very true particularly with regard to mids.

The top ten mids all came from the top four sides. Only Kane Cornes ,Brad Green and Andrew Swallow made the top 20 from sides outside the eight. Lesson 1 Pick premium mids from the top four sides. Challenge : First correctly predict who the top four sides will be.

The top backs also correlate with ladder position although not as closely as for the mids. Whereas you might expect otherwise with the bottom sides having the ball in their defence for longer periods the top 10 backs are all from the top 8 sides.

The trend is weaker again when we look at forwards but nevertheless 7 of the top 10 are from the top eight sides. Over the years the likes of Pavlich have been able to score well from bottom sides but it takes very good players to do this.

Interestingly the top rucks come from the bottom sides. More contested game styles?

So in summary most of our premiums with the exception of the rucks should come from the top sides.

No surprises saying that conversely most of the good cash cows come from bottom sides as they are the first picked in the draft and get games more readily in lower sides.

The mid pricers are interesting. The sides whose first bye is latest are Essendon, Richmond and Port. These three abound with mid priced promise and it would make good sense to select mid pricers from these sides if you find players you like as the timing will be right for their upgrading. Gray, Trengove, Salopek and Stewart from Port, Cotchin, Morton, Astbury and White from Richmond and Hurley, Jetta, Zakarakis and Myers from Essendon are all worth keeping tabs on over pre-season and NAB Cup.

 

[borrat]

could have another if not better version of podsiadly in callinan next year

and he will be bottom price as well

 

[chadleverington]

could have another if not better version of podsiadly in callinan next year

and he will be bottom price as well

If he gets games, wonder how well he will score.

 

[borrat]

well according to the article in todays herald sun adelaide are desperate for a small forward

so i think he could maybe score 60+ if/when he gets promoted of course

 

[chadleverington]

adelaide are desperate

certainly agree with that

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Err...

Referring more to Gibbs with it wouldn't matter where he is positioned.

Also by saying they would be in my plans at this time of season just means they will be considered.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

It becomes relevant in some cases, Kelly for example.
His scores are greatly improved when key personnel from Geelong's midfield are missing.

Well how did Kelly go this year? Geelong still had all there guns playing in the midfield as usual.

He improved because he was fit for once and was able to play a full season in a good side.

 

[mehow2g]

If Andrew Gaff impresses during NAB cup he will be selected at round 1, the boy can find the pill alot... worth looking at for a sub role.