Picks For 2011

[LemmingMaster]

I guess we'll see at the end of the season mate whether they are top 7 mids.
Because hey they may average 95-105, but my mentality is to look at the guys who will be in the top 7.

This is the more valid point in the whole discussion, I don't think they can viably average over 105. Someone like Murphy is a better option in my eyes for a cheap option that may improve his average.

I still have a little soft spot for Jack as well, if I thought Sydney were a top 4 team, I would almost lock Jack in for a high average in 2011.

 

[Tom12]

Even at his best he's unlikely to average to finish as one of top 7 mids.
He may turn it up from 2010 and increase his average, but history suggests he is not going to crack 105+, (at least it's what you'd want) therefore I see both of them as uncalculated risks.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

This is the more valid point in the whole discussion, I don't think they can viably average over 105. Someone like Murphy is a better option in my eyes for a cheap option that may improve his average.

I still have a little soft spot for Jack as well, if I thought Sydney were a top 4 team, I would almost lock Jack in for a high average in 2011.

Agree with Jack but not Murphy, although he has the potential to be anything still.

The only thing that turns me away from Jack was what i saw during the finals series, hes without a doubt sydneys new best midfielder and we arnt sure how attention with tags will affect him, hes also not a massive marker of the footy, although tags generally take away the easy marks anyway, so maybe wont affect him to badly. Against the doggies is the game im referring to, he dominated only got 22 posses but looked the goods, but the tag really affected his scoring, he was still one of the best on ground from memory but didnt score. Only 60ish.

I still think Murphy cant handle attention just yet and he and judd get severly tagged, the brownlow win to judd may work in his favour, but Murphy is very damaging when not manned up and his game ATM is to easy to shutdown.

Cooney and Griffen will never be 110-115 scorers, i dont think i said they would be top 7 mids, but hey. Saying that seem stuck couldve been said about both Swan and Boyd aswell.

I like Mitchell as an option. Finding that 3rd or 4th different mid to others will be important next year, whos going to be that player that goes from 95>105 or 100>110.

Also Swallow,Corey and Watson are interesting

edit: actually im really keen on Swallow now

 

[shiva25]

Cooney is coming off an injury interrupted season.
Griffens finals performance showed he could average 105+(while he copped the number 1 tag, he won't with Cooney back)

Cooney was injury free for the majority of last season and mixed his scores up far to much for me to consider him.Griffin is so inconsistant you cannot possibly consider him. Might of played well in the finals last season but the season is 22 games long and Griffen will never give you consistant enough scores over a 22 game season

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Cooney is coming off an injury interrupted season.

Was there anything beyond the late-season hammy? Even before that he was fairly inconsistent. What people seem to forget or ignore about Cooney though is he's still pretty young - he won his Brownlow at 22! - so there's still plenty of time for him to mature into the sort of solid fantasy performances we see in players' later twenties. Whether that coincides with a decent Dogs team is another matter, but they should at least be thereabouts for a couple of years. It's like the Thomas situation I think, the potential is there, it's just D) a matter of having the foresight to dodge the build-up years but own him when/if everything does finally click.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Was there anything beyond the late-season hammy? Even before that he was fairly inconsistent. What people seem to forget or ignore about Cooney though is he's still pretty young - he won his Brownlow at 22! - so there's still plenty of time for him to mature into the sort of solid fantasy performances we see in players' later twenties. Whether that coincides with a decent Dogs team is another matter, but they should at least be thereabouts for a couple of years. It's like the Thomas situation I think, the potential is there, it's just D) a matter of having the foresight to dodge the build-up years but own him when/if everything does finally click.

Inconsistancy comes with not being able to handle a tag. So if they can learn to handle a tag than that inconsistancy doesnt become an issue. Also Cooney due to that injury actually avg 96 last year, so he is already 5 underpriced. He also had a very limted pre season last year, unsure if this has changed. But i also remember someone saying he is still building his fitness up, was the most unfit player at the club in his first year.

As for Griffen his inconsistancy is far to overrated.

Rule out his 38 against the dons due to injury and his 69 against Port R16 due to injury. This than gives him only 3 scores under 82. One being against Sydney which happens to most and the other 2 against the premiership side Collingwood. So very much overrated. He definitely has more upside than Cooney, closer to 110.

 

[Ollies]

I find it strange that people want to rule out low scores to justify a selection. The season is 22 games long and to expect an injury free run right through (especially for players who have regularly suffered monir injuries and played through them like Cooney and Griffen) is being unrealistic. Might as well rule out their high scores too due to whatever reason you wish. Averages are averages taking in highs and lows and over a 22 game season tell a pretty fair story.

What does change the equation is role change and reaching an endurance level necessary for improved performance for those players who have been burst players in the past.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I find it strange that people want to rule out low scores to justify a selection. The season is 22 games long and to expect an injury free run right through (especially for players who have regularly suffered monir injuries and played through them like Cooney and Griffen) is being unrealistic. Might as well rule out their high scores too due to whatever reason you wish. Averages are averages taking in highs and lows and over a 22 game season tell a pretty fair story.

What does change the equation is role change and reaching an endurance level necessary for improved performance for those players who have been burst players in the past.

I cant see a problem with it at all. If injury occurs in a game it affects the players game, eg: they dont play the whole game than it shows potential improvement.

You should have told us that with Pendlebury and Harvey last year, let me know how they went this year compared to the year before.

Last year i had people telling me that Pendlebury avg 103 and not 98. I always had the mindset he avg 98 and was a good pick, unfortunatly i got talked out of it, but he wouldve been a great pick up, went on to avg 106+ the next year.

Same goes for Harvey people were telling me he avg only 82 but in my mind it was 88 so he was 6 under priced. He than went on to avg 94+ the next year.

I guess its of personal opinion of how you see it. Shown above is the way i see it but its different for others. Having that history though, it shows me the importance to look for games which are affected by injury.

 

[Lakey91]

Dont blame other people for guys you didnt pick DWD. Dont follow so much, make your own decisions, back yourself and suffer the consequences (good and bad). If you like a player, just pick him - dont wait for others to talk you out of it nor into someone else.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Dont blame other people for guys you didnt pick DWD. Dont follow so much, make your own decisions, back yourself and suffer the consequences (good and bad). If you like a player, just pick him - dont wait for others to talk you out of it nor into someone else.

Was on the top of my learnt list, Lakey.

 

[54Dogs]

I find it strange that people want to rule out low scores to justify a selection. The season is 22 games long and to expect an injury free run right through (especially for players who have regularly suffered monir injuries and played through them like Cooney and Griffen) is being unrealistic. Might as well rule out their high scores too due to whatever reason you wish. Averages are averages taking in highs and lows and over a 22 game season tell a pretty fair story.

What does change the equation is role change and reaching an endurance level necessary for improved performance for those players who have been burst players in the past.

Cooney has historically been highly durable. I don't think it's unreasonable to factor out 3 games at the end of the year, 2 at half rat power and the other injured in the first 10 mins when trying to establish what he would do in a normal year.

Surely you don't expect Volt to score a 20 this year and be out for the next 11, and hence you would consider the 20 has left him underpriced. On top of this the 68 and 71 as he was phased back in with reduced TOG have added to his value this year.

 

[bigbuddyboy]

I reckon Brad Sewell could be a good pick. Had a poor pre-season last year and a bit of an injury interrupted start. He's being mentioned as one of pre-season highlights so far this pre-season, and with Bruce taking up some tagging role it could free sewell up to get back to that 101 average (he is priced at 82).

 

[Tom12]

At 82 you'd want a pretty big increase, arkwardly priced. Not sure if he's worth it when IMO the best way to treat the midfield this year is an aggressive guns/rookies lineup.

 

[54Dogs]

I reckon Brad Sewell could be a good pick. Had a poor pre-season last year and a bit of an injury interrupted start. He's being mentioned as one of pre-season highlights so far this pre-season, and with Bruce taking up some tagging role it could free sewell up to get back to that 101 average (he is priced at 82).

IIRC that average was due predominently to Hodge in the backline, Mitchell injured and now there's Burgoyne as well. Less chance IMO

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

He shows potential value for that reason - hes average 101 before or the year before. But if i was coaching Hawthorn he would become an actual tagger next year or maybe even play in the back half like his early days as a shutdown type. Bruce will be filling/doing roles around the ground and i now have doubts whether he is a lock best 22. Sewell didnt really spend alot of time taggin last year anyway from what i saw, yeah every now and again but not full on. Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Bateman, Burgoyne, Rioli, Young, Ellis are looking like a dangerous midfield.

 

[Tom12]

Might improve, but better options even at his price means he won't get a look in most sides.

 

[Jolldo87]

Griffens finals performance showed he could average 105+(while he copped the number 1 tag, he won't with Cooney back)

How does 125, 84 & 71 show an ability to average 105+?

 

[yogibbear]

Here's my picks:

Kelly
Ebert
Liberatore
Lake
Ibbotson

Ugle
NicNat
Didak
Enright
Riewoldt
Walters
O'Keefe
Ottens
Deledio

 

[s1bbald]

What's the go with M. Morton? I'm seeing him in a lot of planned FWD lines, and I'm not getting the hype... Have I missed an article somewhere along the line or what??

 

[Walesy]

What's the go with M. Morton? I'm seeing him in a lot of planned FWD lines, and I'm not getting the hype... Have I missed an article somewhere along the line or what??

Not just an article, a whole *season*!!

Last year, he put his hand up to go down to the VFL, learn how to play in the midfield.

Came back to the seniors later in the year and averaged 105- through the midfield.

 

[Pumbi]

How does 125, 84 & 71 show an ability to average 105+?

Maybe statistically it doesnt add up but surely you understand where he is coming from?

- Playing on one leg for the whole final series
- No Cooney, who would usually take the number 1 tag
- The Bulldogs got smashed in their first final, somehow managed to beat Sydney and then in the wet, were gallant against the Saints. To put their performances into context, Matthew Boyd scored 107, 91 and 83.

I agree with you that he wont average 105, but what cross#4 said has merit.

 

[Jolldo87]

Maybe statistically it doesnt add up but surely you understand where he is coming from?

- Playing on one leg for the whole final series
- No Cooney, who would usually take the number 1 tag
- The Bulldogs got smashed in their first final, somehow managed to beat Sydney and then in the wet, were gallant against the Saints. To put their performances into context, Matthew Boyd scored 107, 91 and 83.

I agree with you that he wont average 105, but what cross#4 said has merit.

Forgot about him being injured during the finals series. Still, according to FanFooty he wasn't tagged during the first final in which the 125 came. Collingwood elected to tag Boyd instead which I find interesting. Don't think this would happen very often but it does show that some teams are willing to let Griffin run free.

I'd suggest that if Griffin did start to average 105 then he would start to get the number 1 tag ahead of Cooney which would then reduce his average imo. Just couldn't see Griffin avoiding the hard tag if he lifted his game to the next level.

 

[Tom12]

105 would be a good effort, but it's a tough ask to pick that sort of improvement. And even then, with so many coaches going after the super premiums early you could still lose ground!

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Forgot about him being injured during the finals series. Still, according to FanFooty he wasn't tagged during the first final in which the 125 came. Collingwood elected to tag Boyd instead which I find interesting. Don't think this would happen very often but it does show that some teams are willing to let Griffin run free.

I'd suggest that if Griffin did start to average 105 then he would start to get the number 1 tag ahead of Cooney which would then reduce his average imo. Just couldn't see Griffin avoiding the hard tag if he lifted his game to the next level.

IMO he was the first tagged last year more often than not. So if he is to improve and reach his potential he needs to be able to show he has learnt to deal with a tag. Just because a player is going to get the number 1 tag doesn't mean you rule them out. He just needs to learn to deal with it Ablett like. He has the strong bodies and experience around him so it shouldn't be a problem from that side of things.

 

[Tom12]

I'm fairly sure Cooney got the no.1 tag when he was on the park.
And if the player isn't used to the bigger tags, that to me suggests that picking him as a midfield premium has little to no merit.