Draft Expert PMBangers' (and ‘friends’) 2022 Draft Board

[Sphynx]

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Have had some spare time this week and ran out of footage of the current draft crop to rewatch (updated top 40 on page 1 btw) so thought I'd consolidate my 2023 notes and form a rankings. A lot's been said already about next years crop being better, but it's a massive cliche in footy that always gets pulled out, this time last year Harry Lemmey had people foaming at the mouth for the 2022 draft, so a lot changes, so please don't get shitty if some of these names drop off completely xx.

I won't straight up say better or worse for next years draft, but I will say I'm more excited for it than I was for this year, as it stands there aren't as many top end pure midfielders but as you can see from the positions there's a few with the potential to push in and make a name for themselves in the centre square. There's a lot of genuine X Factor amongst the top end though, guys like Reid, Duursma and Watson are already well known for it from pages like baselinefooty, but Lorenz, Delean, Moir, Caddy, Frangalas and Tholstrup are just as capable of doing some remarkable things, with some of those just missing out in Lual, Rogers, Callinan and McAuliffe also having that trait

McKercher and Callinan are both North NGA FYI.

 

[TheAthlete]

Plenty get invited to the National combine without getting picked up, it's a nice start but means pretty little in the grand scheme of the draft

Well that is absolutely not true in any sense of the word. It is a massive start. You need at least 6 clubs to nominate you to get an invite to the national combine. I would say at least 85% of those that go to the national combine get drafted each year so to say it means little in the grand scheme of things is silly.

 

[weltschmerz]

Well that is absolutely not true in any sense of the word. It is a massive start. You need at least 6 clubs to nominate you to get an invite to the national combine. I would say at least 85% of those that go to the national combine get drafted each year so to say it means little in the grand scheme of things is silly.

Last time there was a national combine was 2019, and about a quarter of the invitees didn't get drafted. Not insignificant.

 

[PMBangers]

Well that is absolutely not true in any sense of the word. It is a massive start. You need at least 6 clubs to nominate you to get an invite to the national combine. I would say at least 85% of those that go to the national combine get drafted each year so to say it means little in the grand scheme of things is silly.

Consistently much closer to 75% of the usual 80ish National Combine invitees get picked up (from browsing 2019, 2018 and 2017 invite lists) in what I reckon will be drafts that have more players taken as well. This year especially I expect we'll see it drop a little given the variance in club rankings due to a few bursting on to the scene without significant bottom aged years, so there's a few state combine invitees I'd rate as decent chances as well.

As I said, it's a nice start, but there are players that have gotten those invites, made the AA U18s team and spoken to plenty of the clubs that still don't get picked up, and there'll be players that made the National combine that'll be in the 50-60 region on all those clubs draft boards that also have state invitees in the 30s. It's a good indication of general interest for sure, and I worded it poorly saying it means little, I moreso meant I wouldn't use it as an absolute measure

 

[LemmingMaster]

There have been years that the AFL has increased the players at the combine if I am not mistaken due to low numbers.

I've also heard that the AFL wanted a list of 50 names and some clubs only really liking 35 players or so from the draft year.

 

[pushintheback]

Consistently much closer to 75% of the usual 80ish National Combine invitees get picked up (from browsing 2019, 2018 and 2017 invite lists) in what I reckon will be drafts that have more players taken as well. This year especially I expect we'll see it drop a little given the variance in club rankings due to a few bursting on to the scene without significant bottom aged years, so there's a few state combine invitees I'd rate as decent chances as well.

As I said, it's a nice start, but there are players that have gotten those invites, made the AA U18s team and spoken to plenty of the clubs that still don't get picked up, and there'll be players that made the National combine that'll be in the 50-60 region on all those clubs draft boards that also have state invitees in the 30s. It's a good indication of general interest for sure, and I worded it poorly saying it means little, I moreso meant I wouldn't use it as an absolute measure

Im actually not sure of what the purpose of the combine is. It was better when they had the skills testing. Now days all the players wear a gps so the clubs no what they're getting and where the improvement needs to come from. I think the AFL started a combine because the USA does one. TBH the NFL combine is actually entertaining to watch.

 

[TheAthlete]

Im actually not sure of what the purpose of the combine is. It was better when they had the skills testing. Now days all the players wear a gps so the clubs no what they're getting and where the improvement needs to come from. I think the AFL started a combine because the USA does one. TBH the NFL combine is actually entertaining to watch.

With the greatest of respect you probably need to think about that statement a little more. First I would be considering what GPS measures. Start there and you might find your answer.

 

[pushintheback]

With the greatest of respect you probably need to think about that statement a little more. First I would be considering what GPS measures. Start there and you might find your answer.

Straight back at you. I respect your opinion but with all the greatest respect I can assure u i know what Im talking about. I think you need ask yourself why GPS data gets sent to all AFL clubs at the completion of each round. Additionally, why do AFL recruiters make requests for who they would like to wear a GPS. As an example sprint speed on field is different to a 20m timed sprint. The player may run the 20m sprint fast but can they run with the ball at maximum velocity with ball in hand, even while bouncing and then execute effectively. Lastly, where the AFL combine helps is if a club is sitting on the fence with a very late pick, not with their primary picks. Most recruiters know 12-18mths out who they are going to take. Yes there is a bolter every year in our eyes, but it does not mean the bolter is actually a bolter in the recruiters eyes.

 

[weltschmerz]

I’d still like to see the kicking tests. I remember a defender (Quaynor?) won the goal kicking one a few years ago and was like “welp don’t know where that came from”.

 

[TheAthlete]

Straight back at you. I respect your opinion but with all the greatest respect I can assure u i know what Im talking about. I think you need ask yourself why GPS data gets sent to all AFL clubs at the completion of each round. Additionally, why do AFL recruiters make requests for who they would like to wear a GPS. As an example sprint speed on field is different to a 20m timed sprint. The player may run the 20m sprint fast but can they run with the ball at maximum velocity with ball in hand, even while bouncing and then execute effectively. Lastly, where the AFL combine helps is if a club is sitting on the fence with a very late pick, not with their primary picks. Most recruiters know 12-18mths out who they are going to take. Yes there is a bolter every year in our eyes, but it does not mean the bolter is actually a bolter in the recruiters eyes.

All I can say is that if you think any recruiter worth his or her salt has a firm opinion 12-18 months out then you don't know what you are talking about. If I had a dollar for every time I heard the phrase too early to know from recruiters I have asked about bottom age players I would be rich. Futures coordinators know a bit more cause they are paid to watch the bottom agers and 16s but the big boys who make decisions don't involve themselves in watching too much and even less making calls about kids 12 months out let alone 18 months.

 

[Futbolista]

All I can say is that if you think any recruiter worth his or her salt has a firm opinion 12-18 months out then you don't know what you are talking about. If I had a dollar for every time I heard the phrase too early to know from recruiters I have asked about bottom age players I would be rich. Futures coordinators know a bit more cause they are paid to watch the bottom agers and 16s but the big boys who make decisions don't involve themselves in watching too much and even less making calls about kids 12 months out let alone 18 months.

Yep things change over two years. I have a WA 2024 list but it will change immensely and maybe half won't be in the list by October 2024.

 

[Mutineer]

McKercher and Callinan are both North NGA FYI.

I reckon a bid on Jack Callinan might be incoming from Adelaide at some point..often spotted with his old man Nutta Callinan in the Crows rooms...Nutta is one of Tex's best mates.

 

[burner1]

PMbangers - do you see much of a gap between the mids at 7-9 and jefferson? Are hawks a chance? Jefferson seems to have a lot of mixed views but can’t recall many better KPF prospects available at pick 7 or later in recent years.

Hawks probably looking for a bigger /tall mid with pace - but not a heap options with our second pick. Which of the forwards or back flankers in the mid 20’s range have the most potential as a taller mid? Cowan or gilbey? George? Allen maybe on potential? Or someone like teal late?

Given the pretty limited tall defender stocks are clubs likely to look at Barnett as a kpd option? Seems to have the raw tools (mobility, size, marking, competitiveness).

 

[Mutineer]

PMbangers - do you see much of a gap between the mids at 7-9 and jefferson? Are hawks a chance? Jefferson seems to have a lot of mixed views but can’t recall many better KPF prospects available at pick 7 or later in recent years.

Hawks probably looking for a bigger /tall mid with pace - but not a heap options with our second pick. Which of the forwards or back flankers in the mid 20’s range have the most potential as a taller mid? Cowan or gilbey? George? Allen maybe on potential? Or someone like teal late?

Given the pretty limited tall defender stocks are clubs likely to look at Barnett as a kpd option? Seems to have the raw tools (mobility, size, marking, competitiveness).

Billy Dowling worth a look?

Tested very well at the combine and can certainly find plenty of the pill.

2022 NAB AFL Draft Combine Results - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

Billy Dowling - SANFL

sanfl.com.au

 

[PMBangers]

PMbangers - do you see much of a gap between the mids at 7-9 and jefferson? Are hawks a chance? Jefferson seems to have a lot of mixed views but can’t recall many better KPF prospects available at pick 7 or later in recent years.

Hawks probably looking for a bigger /tall mid with pace - but not a heap options with our second pick. Which of the forwards or back flankers in the mid 20’s range have the most potential as a taller mid? Cowan or gilbey? George? Allen maybe on potential? Or someone like teal late?

Given the pretty limited tall defender stocks are clubs likely to look at Barnett as a kpd option? Seems to have the raw tools (mobility, size, marking, competitiveness).

For where the Hawks are at, I think a bit of a safer selection with a midfielder would be the way to go, especially with Mitchell and O'Meara heading out during the trade period and only Stephens brought in (who is far from a sure thing). The likes of Tsatas, Mackenzie, Clark, etc. who are likely to be available around your pick are going to make a quick impact and improve in the long term. In saying that, I do really like Jefferson and think there's a lot there to work with to be a good #2 forward to Lewis long term, there's just a bit of development to go with his size.

Cowan definitely has the potential to be a bigger bodied midfielder, a bit of work to do on his contested game but outside of that there's not much that'd hold him back. George and Gilbey I see sticking to their positions at the next level, Allan I anticipate will be taken well before your second pick. I think Weddle could develop into a midfielder if needed, very good athletically so gives that speed and burst from congestion, but really there's not a whole lot of that in the second round, most of the midfielders in that range are rather 'vanilla' and work best as extractors from the inside.

Possibly, I know a lot of people are intrigued about what he could do in a KPP post up either end, and for a guy of his height he's got really good mobility and skills which helps

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Cowan definitely has the potential to be a bigger bodied midfielder, a bit of work to do on his contested game but outside of that there's not much that'd hold him back. George and Gilbey I see sticking to their positions at the next level, Allan I anticipate will be taken well before your second pick. I think Weddle could develop into a midfielder if needed, very good athletically so gives that speed and burst from congestion, but really there's not a whole lot of that in the second round, most of the midfielders in that range are rather 'vanilla' and work best as extractors from the inside.

Husthwaite may well be off the board by then but what do you make of his midfield potential?

 

[PMBangers]

Husthwaite may well be off the board by then but what do you make of his midfield potential?

I think he's shown a lot more as a midfielder than a defender to date, and his composure/ ball use in the thick of things will hold him in good stead at the next level, but he again fits into the 'vanilla' mould for me, not overly athletic and is a 'handball first' type. Can't see him being a game breaking mid unless he manages to develop similarly to how Pendlebury has, but you still need those sorts of players at the next level regardless.

 

[KinderSmock]

Im actually not sure of what the purpose of the combine is. It was better when they had the skills testing. Now days all the players wear a gps so the clubs no what they're getting and where the improvement needs to come from. I think the AFL started a combine because the USA does one. TBH the NFL combine is actually entertaining to watch.

The NFL is generally better at the draft process because they have a much stronger under age setup. With over 200 selections, the NFL offers far more of a chance to find a true diamond in the rough like Brady or even more of an unknown. College football is as popular as the NFL in some states (if not more so in places like Alabama) and provides a good entrance into professional sport.

 

[LemmingMaster]

The NFL is generally better at the draft process because they have a much stronger under age setup. With over 200 selections, the NFL offers far more of a chance to find a true diamond in the rough like Brady or even more of an unknown. College football is as popular as the NFL in some states (if not more so in places like Alabama) and provides a good entrance into professional sport.

It is also important to remember that NFL athletes often come into the NFL a lost older than 18 years of age.

If the AFL increased the draft age, there would be a lot more known information. It would be a lot easier to draft tall forwards, rucks and maybe inside midfielders. That would require an amazing college AFL system and so forth, it will never happen.

 

[KinderSmock]

It is also important to remember that NFL athletes often come into the NFL a lost older than 18 years of age.

If the AFL increased the draft age, there would be a lot more known information. It would be a lot easier to draft tall forwards, rucks and maybe inside midfielders. That would require an amazing college AFL system and so forth, it will never happen.

Given how many AFL boys are on path for apprenticeships or full-time employment, college AFL wouldn't really work in the Australian climate.

A better thing to do would be to have one league for prospects aged between 19-21 that's semi-professional. Players can stay in their home states, grow up a lot and learn to function in the real world before entering a ruthless and sterile AFL system. Cut out having kids play up to four games of footy a week in Year 12 (School, community club, NAB League and U18 Champs or whatever additional team they're playing in).

 

[PMBangers]

Cut out having kids play up to four games of footy a week in Year 12 (School, community club, NAB League and U18 Champs or whatever additional team they're playing in).

This just simply doesn't happen anyway

 

[KinderSmock]

This just simply doesn't happen anyway

I based that off a draft interview with Brayshaw's dad. Perhaps I heard it wrong.

I know there are definitely boys out there playing 2, sometimes 3, games of footy a week. It's a lot more load than college players have, anyway. College football has a short, snappy season of around 12 games in the regular season and if the AFL could find a compromise to what it has now, the drafting system would be better for it.

 

[weltschmerz]

This just simply doesn't happen anyway

Usually something like champs, then school footy, then NAB league, then community in order of importance? I know a lot of NAB teams lose players to school footy during the season.

 

[briztoon]

I based that off a draft interview with Brayshaw's dad. Perhaps I heard it wrong.

I know there are definitely boys out there playing 2, sometimes 3, games of footy a week. It's a lot more load than college players have, anyway. College football has a short, snappy season of around 12 games in the regular season and if the AFL could find a compromise to what it has now, the drafting system would be better for it.

They don’t play multiple games a week.

They can play for quite a few different teams in a season though.

Their is a hierarchy for which teams kids play for in Victoria.

NAB league is essentially at the bottom.

Private school footy takes precedence over NAB league.

During the Private school season, the NAB league clubs, especially the metro ones, lose most of their best kids, because the Private schools don’t allow their kids to play for both.

So the NAB league clubs call up more kids from the local comps.

Rep footy, be it National Academy or National U18 Championships, takes precedence over all other levels.

There’s no way kids are playing two games in a week, unless it’s at U18 national championships, during school holidays, when they might play a game on a Friday and then another game the following Wednesday. And that type of scheduling is rare.

 

[PMBangers]

I based that off a draft interview with Brayshaw's dad. Perhaps I heard it wrong.

I know there are definitely boys out there playing 2, sometimes 3, games of footy a week. It's a lot more load than college players have, anyway. College football has a short, snappy season of around 12 games in the regular season and if the AFL could find a compromise to what it has now, the drafting system would be better for it.

They don’t play multiple games a week.

They can play for quite a few different teams in a season though.

Their is a hierarchy for which teams kids play for in Victoria.

NAB league is essentially at the bottom.

Private school footy takes precedence over NAB league.

During the Private school season, the NAB league clubs, especially the metro ones, lose most of their best kids, because the Private schools don’t allow their kids to play for both.

So the NAB league clubs call up more kids from the local comps.

Rep footy, be it National Academy or National U18 Championships, takes precedence over all other levels.

There’s no way kids are playing two games in a week, unless it’s at U18 national championships, during school holidays, when they might play a game on a Friday and then another game the following Wednesday. And that type of scheduling is rare.

Nah a lot of guys at schools involved with the Herald Sun Shield, or really any competition not APS/ AGSV will play for their school mid week as well as NAB League, but as a general rule clubs try to manage players workloads to 1 game a week, so most kids play anymore than that are likely going against club advice. Hell, NAB League clubs will suggest players skip local footy during bye weeks if they're a best 22 player