Polls Thread Mk III

[GreyCrow]

All the way back a year. How things change

All over for the Coalition. Wipeout coming in the next 12 months.

Galaxy Poll shows Libs leading 51-49, with Turnbull Preferred PM over Shorten by 51% to 20%.

So the bounce is in effect.

Latest Essential poll is out

Two-party preferred

Coalition: 52 (+3)
ALP: 48 (-3)

Primaries

Liberal: 44 (+4)
ALP: 35 (-2)
Green: 11 (steady)
PUP: 2 (steady)
Other/independent: 9 (steady)

Several other questions also asked in the full report

http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

Sigh

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Hmm is it too late to change Leaders ?

Embrace the Shorty! Bob Hawke was a Union leader and it turned out very well for everyone... except the manufacturing workers who lost their job as we transitioned to a deregulated economy. But otherwise it's been 25 years of economic growth.

What chance that Turnbull, once he's in the voting booth away from prying eyes, decides to have a cheeky vote for Labor too?

 

[GreyCrow]

I was wondering if the LNP want to change leaders

 

[Crankyhawk]

Polls - meh. It's as RNG as Diablo 3 loot system. Witness the polling failures in US primaries.

 

[GreyCrow]

Why are polls only failures when it doesn't suit your point of view?

 

[rodney hoo]

I was wondering if the LNP want to change leaders

At least us smart enough new what we would get with Abbott, lies bigotry,looking after the big end of town etc.. Turdbull is the biggest disappointment and is worse than Abbott if that's possible.

 

[swingdog]

Has anyone looked at what percentage of voters are locked in to their decision and what percentage are undecided?

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

I was wondering if the LNP want to change leaders

Yeah, I figured as much, which is why I was thinking you were a traditional Liberal voter who was disillusioned and needed convincing to take the plunge into voting Labor. I thought Albo was a better communicator than Shorten when they were running for Labor leader, but 2.5 years later, Shorten has clearly shown he has grown into the role. Given he has a lot of talent around him, I think he could be a Hawke like figure - running a cabinet government that gets good policy done, rather than the Turnbull 'cabinet government' which appears to be the 'keep Abbott onside at all costs' type of government.

 

[GreyCrow]

Well then I must be doing something right. I have tried to find a middle ground despite my voting preferences.

 

[Fire]

Yeah, I figured as much, which is why I was thinking you were a traditional Liberal voter who was disillusioned and needed convincing to take the plunge into voting Labor. I thought Albo was a better communicator than Shorten when they were running for Labor leader, but 2.5 years later, Shorten has clearly shown he has grown into the role. Given he has a lot of talent around him, I think he could be a Hawke like figure - running a cabinet government that gets good policy done, rather than the Turnbull 'cabinet government' which appears to be the 'keep Abbott onside at all costs' type of government.

He'll never have the charisma to be a Hawke; in fact he has negative charisma and always will. He is embarrassing to listen to.

However I was wrong about him; he seems to be a decent leader if not communicator. I'll probably end up preferenceing him after all.

 

[Pessimistic]

He'll never have the charisma to be a Hawke; in fact he has negative charisma and always will. He is embarrassing to listen to.

However I was wrong about him; he seems to be a decent leader if not communicator. I'll probably end up preferenceing him after all.

Very much from the Dan Andrews style. Maybe we'll realize charisma is over rated in what is, after all, a very boring job if done properly.

 

[Gough]

Charisma makes things easier, Howard was a ten year PM, and he had all the charisma of a wet Sunday in Bulawayo.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

Charisma makes things easier, Howard was a ten year PM, and he had all the charisma of a wet Sunday in Bulawayo.

I actually think his 'little guy come good' persona worked well for him. When he was up about something (usually sport) he came across as legitimately cheerful, but still aware that he wasn't really part of the 'jocks' or whatever and was just wishing he could've been. And when he was criticised he could put on this kind of hurt tone which coupled very well with the dog-whistling. His government would hint at things regarding immigration and if anyone ever took the bait and criticised him like he was anti-immigration, he acted like it was a completely ghastly thing to have done. The vibe that he was like the kid at school who was bullied or ignored, but made a really decent life for himself, also fit with the political story given he had been a failure previously in politics.

But, regarding comparing Shorten to Hawke, I certainly wasn't referring to charisma, but rather the cabinet government approach to governing which was overwhelmingly Hawke's policy strength. Turnbull is trying to do that but he doesn't have the talent around him. I think Labor does have the talent and Shorten's Labor Right economic conservatism should provide the hand brake on anyone getting a crazy idea up (like when Gillard temporarily halted live cattle exporting).

 

[Fire]

But, regarding comparing Shorten to Hawke, I certainly wasn't referring to charisma, but rather the cabinet government approach to governing which was overwhelmingly Hawke's policy strength. Turnbull is trying to do that but he doesn't have the talent around him. I think Labor does have the talent and Shorten's Labor Right economic conservatism should provide the hand brake on anyone getting a crazy idea up (like when Gillard temporarily halted live cattle exporting).

The problem with this though is if he isn't the charismatic face for such a cabinet, he's not bringing anything to the table. And with egos involved, that's when the knives will eventually come out.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

The problem with this though is if he isn't the charismatic face for such a cabinet, he's not bringing anything to the table. And with egos involved, that's when the knives will eventually come out.

I disagree. There is no need for charisma in the cabinet room. Charisma is good for getting votes. Hawkey was a knock-about-bloke and people liked him for that. He had a rather good education growing up, while Keating dropped out at 15 and was portrayed as an "elitist" for liking classical music and art - that was bad for votes for no good reason. Although I doubt people would suggest Keating didn't have charisma of sorts.

In the cabinet, however, you just need someone who will genuinely listen to other people and make good decisions off the back of it. Shorten has so far shown he can do that. Good policies, and when he needs to put his foot down (like on insisting boat turn-backs would be Labor policy) he has done that. A lack of charisma could even help as it makes everyone else feel as much a part of the success as the leader - their input is useful and they'll work harder (unlike say under Rudd, when he was always doing his own thing and apparently wasting people's time with busywork with no decision at the end of it).

Hawke's undoing, as detailed in Labor In Power, was when there was a stalemate in Cabinet and he wouldn't make a decision. Charisma won't help you there, just as it isn't helping Turnbull as he gives in to every whim of the right-wing Liberals.

 

[Dry Rot]

Can we please keep this thread to polls and discussion of them?

 

[Hank Scorpion]

After reading a few opinions about how seat-by-seat polling favours the Libs, I've had a closer look at its reliability:

Considering 2PPs from the 2013 Federal campaign:

- 11 overestimated the Liberal vote by more than 2%
- 5 overestimated the Liberal vote by 1-2%
- 12 were on target
- 2 overestimated the Labor vote by 1-2%
- 5 overestimated the Labor vote by more than 2%

You could draw a different conclusion from this: perhaps the seat-by-seat polling underestimates the incumbent?

I had a look for scraps of seat-by-seat polling from QLD '15 and ViC '14 (where the Libs were defending):

- 6 overestimated the Liberal vote by more than 2%
- 3 overestimated the Liberal vote by 1-2%
- 2 were on target
- 1 overestimated the Labor vote by 1-2%
- 2 overestimated the Labor vote by more than 2%

I know this isn't an especially rigorous method of measuring this. Polls go up and down during the campaign (although the swing was consistent towards the Coalition over the course of the federal campaign,) and I've made no allowance for sample size/pollster, but there does seem to be some truth to it.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

ReachTel's 2PP catches up after a big movement on primaries last week

Primaries:
L/NP: 41.1 (-1.5)
ALP: 36.5 (-0.1)
GRN: 9.6 (-0.3)
XEN: 4.3 (+1.6)

2PP:
L/NP: 48 (-2)
ALP: 52 (+2)

Leaders' ratings (Approve-Disapprove):
Turnbull: 29-37 (+1)-(+2)
Shorten: 29-37 (+1)-(-2)

Preferred PM:
Turnbull: 55 (-1)
Shorten: 45 (+1)

Border protection:
L/NP: 56
ALP: 44

Economic management:
L/NP: 52
ALP: 48

Health:
L/NP: 38
ALP: 63

Education:
L/NP: 40
ALP: 60


Division of Corangamite, VIC (LIB 3.9%), 770 respondents
LIB: 48 (-)
ALP: 27 (-5)
GRN: 15 (+3)

LIB: 54 (-)
ALP: 46 (-)

 

[VineyIsLORD]

The problem with this though is if he isn't the charismatic face for such a cabinet, he's not bringing anything to the table. And with egos involved, that's when the knives will eventually come out.

He might just bring an ability to negotiate between factions and make decisions. An ability to compromise is very important for a democratic leader.

The fact he recieved caucus votes from the socialist left faction in the leadership vote shows he has respect from all factions of the ALP

 

[pjcrows]

ReachTel's 2PP catches up after a big movement on primaries last week

Primaries:
L/NP: 41.1 (-1.5)
ALP: 36.5 (-0.1)
GRN: 9.6 (-0.3)
XEN: 4.3 (+1.6)

2PP:
L/NP: 48 (-2)
ALP: 52 (+2)

Leaders' ratings (Approve-Disapprove):
Turnbull: 29-37 (+1)-(+2)
Shorten: 29-37 (+1)-(-2)

Preferred PM:
Turnbull: 55 (-1)
Shorten: 45 (+1)

Border protection:
L/NP: 56
ALP: 44

Economic management:
L/NP: 52
ALP: 48

Health:
L/NP: 38
ALP: 63

Education:
L/NP: 40
ALP: 60


Division of Corangamite, VIC (LIB 3.9%), 770 respondents
LIB: 48 (-)
ALP: 27 (-5)
GRN: 15 (+3)

LIB: 54 (-)
ALP: 46 (-)

52-48 Nationally but no swing in a key marginal is interesting.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

52-48 Nationally but no swing in a key marginal is interesting.

Turnbull has been spending a lot of time there ever since removing Abbott. There might also be a factor of city v country. The ALP candidate is a Surf Coast mayor I believe and that's a lot of the electorate, but at least half of Geelong is in there too. The Liberal MP Sarah Henderson also has good media contacts from working for the ABC. There was an odd example of this on 7:30 which basically showcased her for 10 mins. It was before the election was officially called so I guess it was allowed, but essentially the piece was 'Port Arthur was 10 years ago, Sarah Henderson worked on The 7:30 Report then, so here she is with her interview subject from back then'. Unfortunately the interview subject was clearly struggling as she was shown around the sites where she had been on the day of the massacre. Uncomfortable TV and did come across as being as much about Henderson as anything else.

He might just bring an ability to negotiate between factions and make decisions. An ability to compromise is very important for a democratic leader.

The fact he recieved caucus votes from the socialist left faction in the leadership vote shows he has respect from all factions of the ALP

This is a key thing he has spoken about - bringing groups together that have been divided by the politics of the last 7 years. That's where the witch-hunt Royal Commission actually helps Shorten. It quite thoroughly showed how business interests were very much considered in Shorten's Union's negotiations.

 

[Dry Rot]

Interesting Newspoll analysis out tonight

Newspoll: enough to lose: key states swing against Coalition

The Turnbull government is facing the prospect of losing 10 seats in NSW, six in Queensland and three in Western Australia, with a significant slump in support in the key election battlegrounds.

An analysis of Newspolls over the past two months, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals the Coalition has suffered a 6 per cent swing against it in two-party-preferred terms in Queensland, a 7.3 swing in Western Australia and 3.6 per cent deterioration in NSW — enough to lose the election.

The polling also reveals that the Coalition, Labor and the Greens have surrendered significant ground in South Australia, where Nick Xenophon’s party has attracted one in five primary votes.

 

[GOAUS!]

 

[Juddism]

Turnbull has been spending a lot of time there ever since removing Abbott. There might also be a factor of city v country. The ALP candidate is a Surf Coast mayor I believe and that's a lot of the electorate, but at least half of Geelong is in there too.

I wonder how much of Corangamite's knife edge is to do with Darryn Lyons? the Liberal mayor of Geelong.

 

[Ratts of Tobruk]

I wonder how much of Corangamite's knife edge is to do with Darryn Lyons? the Liberal mayor of Geelong.

He's only been around after Abbott was elected, but I think he ran as an 'independent' so people probably didn't like finding out he was actually a Liberal. Apparently he was going to try and run in Corio (north Geelong), again as an 'independent'. He then said he probably wouldn't so maybe some polling was done that showed he didn't have a chance. The council was dissolved there with reports of bullying so that doesn't help.