Port vs Adelaide @ AAMI Game Thread

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Its the crows home game. Crows should win. Too bad it isnt played interstate. Ports home record is 7W - 1L, interstate is 1W - 7L :p
 
Honest question .. are you guys confident of winning or does your inconsistency put huge doubt in your mind? I see the poll is 12-2 .. is that just being loyal to your team or do you genuinely think you'll win and if so, why?

It's 50/50 IMO. In a 50/50 game I always back my team.
 
I was at the Saints v Crows game on Sunday and, if we can apply half the defensive pressure that Saint Kilda did and our forward line is functional, I'm confident we'll win this.

By the way the Saints' zone has to be seen to be believed. Their workrate is phenomenal.
 

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Round 17, Sunday, June 26, 4:10 PM

Possible Teams (22 TBA Friday):
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good effort, but Tippett will be needed up forward, and Maric cant play out the full game against your ruckman

so Take out Walker, place Burton in the forward pocket, and bring sellar into the team :(

that is what will happen. But trust me, I dont want it to

and I wouldnt be suprised if Shilrey stayed out, and Davis came into the backline, to allow Otten into the midfield.
 
Hi guys, the Crows supporters asked for a contribution to their game day thread from a Port perspective and I was happy to oblige. I thought I would include my synopsis on the Port board alike.

Introduction

Season 2009 has been a difficult one as a Port supporter with the very best and the very worst of Port Adelaide on display, not only on the field but also off it. Financial uncertainty, stadium deals and the reappointment of the head coach have all been distractions that the playing group could do without.

On the field, Port Adelaide has been brutal. It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde performance for the ages. Fast flowing, free running and high scoring football has been punctuated with disjointed, insipid and uninspiring displays. It appears that Port Adelaide circa 2009 is flowing by whatever mood grips them on the day. Games Port should lose they win and games Port should win they lose. This is reflective in the 8-8 record where any Port fan can tell you, should be closer to 10-6, after poor efforts against Melbourne and North Melbourne especially.

Despite the chameleon like form of any starting Port Adelaide 22, getting the best 22 on the field has been problematic all season with injuries to key players derailing any continuity. It’s no secret that getting your best 22 out on the park every week is a key ingredient to success (unless you’re Richmond, Melbourne or Fremantle).

Past results

Port Adelaide has won the last 2 showdowns by 26 and 12 points respectively after a 3 match win streak by the Crows who won by margins of 6, 8 and 24 points.

The past 6 results are locked at 3 wins a piece, with Port Adelaide’s average winning margin 18 points and Adelaide’s 13 points. Port Adelaide leads the head to head battle 14-12.

Form

Port Adelaide’s form has been schizophrenic to say the least. Fresh after a demolition job on the well-coached and much improved Michael Voss lead Brisbane Lions, Port Adelaide put in a shambolic effort against AFL cellar dwellers in the Melbourne Demons. Port Adelaide then responded by killing off West Coast by quarter time in their Round 16 clash, only to take the foot of the pedal in the final quarter and watch valuable percentage drop off after opening a 64 point lead early in the final quarter.

Port Adelaide is in a dogfight to scrap into finals and currently sits 9th behind Essendon on 8 wins with a percentage of 94.54% with huge games against Hawthorn and Carlton imminent.

Port Adelaide’s last 5 games
L.L.W.L.W

Port Adelaide’s last 5 games against Adelaide
L.L.L.W.W

Injuries

Port Adelaide has had a tough time putting their best 22 on the paddock during 2009, with up to 8 of their best 22 out at the same time and on average 5 of their best 22 sitting on the sidelines at any given time. Port Adelaide has their shortest injury list for some time, correct as at Monday July 20.

Shaun Burgoyne - knee - test
Hamish Hartlett - hamstring - test
Daniel Motlop - ankle - 5 weeks

Game Style

Port Adelaide’s game style is the topic of numerous threads and conversations. In theory the game style is predicated on fast flowing, hard running, risk taking, crisp disposal and delivery to the forwards. The team employs a zone defense, aimed at controlling the corridor and forcing teams to be pinpoint in their disposal accuracy. In other games, the game style reflects a game of checkers with slow and static movement and disposal best left in a packet of Maggie noodles.

The reality is that Port Adelaide’s game plan is highly dependant upon the commitment level of the players on the day. Work rate is the key position indicator in a win or a loss. A single break in the chain and teams are able to score at will. This is evident in the 4th worst scoring defense in the AFL, conceding on average 13.12 to 15.11 per game. This statistic is rather misleading and is by no means and indictment on the defense, rather midfield work rate. David Rodan has been at his creative best whilst Captain Cassisi has been the workhouse and fabric holding the midfield together. Kane Cornes has gone back to his traditional tagging role and has had an excellent return to form the past 4 weeks.

Port Adelaide is a strong clearance team, averaging 40 hit outs to 31 hit outs per game, with a high proportion of those to advantage. There’s no secret that if Port Adelaide wins the clearance count and the contested possession count, they will win the game. This is one area that Port Adelaide has a definitive advantage over the Crows. The ruck contest.

Port Adelaide morphs between utilising tall or short forwards as their key players when going into the forward 50. Daniel Motlop’s brilliance has been missed, however Robbie Gray and Brett Ebert have the ability to dominate games in short spaces of time. If the kicking is good into the forwards, Port Adelaide will give themself every opportunity to kick a winning score. Justin Westhoff is used as a lead up forward and often uses his football smarts and athleticism to outsmart his opponents. Warren Tredrea has played as the true power forward and has turned in a vintage performance this season.

The defense for Port Adelaide plays within the general zone formation, however, of late, the defenders appears to have gone more one on one with their opponents. Toby Thurstans’ inclusion into the side has been a given Port Adelaide greater match up flexibility allowing Troy Chaplin to play as a 3rd tall in defense, generally as a loose man/general creating or destroying the play. Jacob Surjan has minded the small forwards whilst Alipate Carlile and Thurstans taking the 2 key tall forwards. The key to the defense will be the role of Chad Cornes. If he drops into defense, he needs to play as the loose man, with his superior marking ability a foil to any potential Crows forward 50 entry.

Players under consideration

There can be no doubt about Shaun Burgoyne’s importance to the Port Adelaide side, if anything for team balance and to release Danyle Pearce from a hard tag. The captain has already thrown his name into the mix providing he can complete the required training sessions during the week. Matt Thomas, Michael Pettigrew, Matthew Westhoff, Tom Logan and Hamish Hartlett would all have their hands up for a recall. Josh Carr & Peter Burgoyne as we're told have already been ruled out of contention. I'll believe it when I see it.

The issue for Mark Williams and the selection committee becomes youthful exuberance versus tried and tested veterans.

Possible teams

Troy Chaplin will be an automatic inclusion into the side that defeated West Coast by 6 goals after serving a 2-match suspension for charging Daniel Rich. He was close to best on ground playing as a loose defender in the match against Brisbane and was sorely missed in the past 2 games.

The team that took on West Coast in round 16 lined up as follows.

FB: Alipate Carlile........Toby Thurstans.......Jacob Surjan
BB: Nathan Krakouer....Chad Cornes..........Paul Stewart
CE: Steven Salopek......Dom Cassisi ........Travis Boak
HF: Robert Gray..........Warren Tredrea.......David Rodan
FF: Brett Ebert............Brendon Lade.........Justin Westhoff
RU: Dean Brogan.........Kane Cornes...........Danyle Pearce

IC: Matthew Broadbent..Jason Davenport..Nick Lower..Nick Salter

Troy Chaplin will be a definite starter in the side with most Port supporters torn between who to include and who to drop. Of the junior players, Matthew Broadbent played with poise beyond a first gamer, Paul Stewart was fantastic with his physicality and nuisance value, Nick Salter provided a focal point and was excellent around the ground whilst Nick Lower provided a tough and uncompromising style of football. Senior players under the microscope would be Danyle Pearce who struggled to break Patrick McGinnity’s tag and Steven Salopek whose crisp disposal and excellent decision making skills seem to have deserted him of late.

The selection committee has simply made it to difficult to predict any Port Adelaide side this season other than remaining with the status quo, until last week that is, where 4 changes were made. If you were to bank it one immediate change would be Troy Chaplin for Nick Lower with Shaun Burgoyne for Paul Stewart, Matthew Broadbent or Nathan Krakouer.

The inclusion of Chaplin or Burgoyne will create problems for the Port Adelaide defense, as it's anticipated they will be going in to tall by removing Lower, Stewart or Broadbent.

Key Players

Domenic Cassisi has been a revelation as captain for Port Adelaide in 2009. After a slow start, Don Domenic has come into his own as an on field and off field leader of the club, with an AFL record 15 tackles last week against West Coast. His around the ground play as well as desperation and tackling has been a feature of his game. He could easily be leading the best and fairest at the moment. Dom needs a big game in the middle either winning the contested ball or locking up the explosive Adelaide midfielders denying them use of the ball.

Chad Cornes has dominated the Crows like no other Power player. I am sure it cuts to the core of Studly to see his boys have such a disregard for the Adelaide Crows. Chad is a spiritual leader at the club and his emotions can be either a catalyst to domination or disaster for Port. If Chad channels his energy into winning the football, taking marks and winning the contest rather than baiting Crows players or the umpires, Port will go a long way to controlling the aerial battle.

Robbie Gray has been favourably compared to a young Gary Ablett Jr. His propensity to do the impossible and create something from nothing has been exciting to say the least. Gray’s creative play inside the forward 50 is a headache for the best small defenders and he is able to take a strong overhead grab. Gray’s value to the team cannot be measured by just disposals and goals kicked, but for his ability to include teammates and contribute to goal assists. He’s very clever and only needs a small amount of space to punish teams.

Key Match-Ups

Warren Tredrea vs Ben Rutten

The Tredrea vs Rutten match up looms as the key match up. Whoever wins this battle will go a long way to determining who wins the match. Tredrea has returned to vintage form this season and is finally injury free. Tredrea has kicked 40 goals 21 behinds this season and is averaging 13 disposals, 7 marks and 2.5 goals per game. In their round 6 clash, Tredrea dominated Rutten with 18 disposals, 8 marks and 3 goals 3 behinds. Port Adelaide won by 26 points. Rutten will need help from a floating defender cutting off the space infront of Tredrea, much the same as Nathan Bassett used to. One would think that would be Andy Otten or Nathan Bock.

Alipate Carlile vs Kurt Tippet

Bobby Carlile has been a crucial ingredient in the developing Port Adelaide defense this season. Despite his season being punctuated by form rises and drops, he has been more than serviceable on most key forwards. Tippet has been a revelation for Adelaide this season, with his athleticism and height causing match up problems for any key defender. Carlile is adept at running forward of the play and can be used as an effective linkman running forwards, much in the same vein as Matthew Scarlett.

Port Adelaide’s midfield vs Adelaide’s midfield

There’s no secret this game will be won in the middle. The ruck contests and the clearances will be crucial in determining first opportunity to win the ball and creating scoring opportunities for forwards. Defensive pressure from the midfielders will also determine the ease at which the ball rebounds from the defensive 50. The midfield unit need to work as a collaborative unit rather than punctuated by individual performances, as Port Adelaide has been at times this season.

X-Factor

There is no doubt that Port Adelaide needs Danyle Pearce to fire. Pearce is the barometer for Port Adelaide and there is no secret without Shaun Burgoyne, oppositions are putting their best taggers on him. Pearce at times has struggled to cope with the hard tag this season and if he plays well enough, Port Adelaide will have a better chance at victory than not. His long goal kicking and explosive speed is a headache for the best of players. It’s yet to be determined if his teammates will help him out in breaking the tag. There were encouraging physical signs from Steven Salopek on the weekend that help may be on the way.

Flying Under the radar

The Round 11 2006 rising star nominee Jacob Surjan has been a revelation in defense this season. The much-maligned character, Surjan commanded much comment as to could he or would he make an AFL footballer, despite showing glimpses of fine performances over his 6 year career. This season, under Cameron Falloon, Surjan has put on some extra weight and his skills have improved dramatically. He’s taken his game to the next level and is brutalising the opposition’s small forwards with a combination of strength, speed and smart defensive play. He wins the 50/50 possession and is rated in the top 15 for the AFL’s in the 1%er category.

In Round 16 against West Coast, Surjan destroyed potential All Australian forward pocket candidate Mark Le Cras and has been a consistent performer all season who has rarely been beaten. Commentators and journalists have started to take note of Surjan and his potential match up with the high marking and dead-eye dick Jason Porplyzia could be crucial in deciding what is expected to be a close and hard fought out encounter.

Prediction
Showdown’s are always torrid and hard fought affairs irrespective of ladder positions. The reality is Port Adelaide needs to win this game far more than the Crows if they want to play in September. Adelaide will be looking for redemption after their first loss in 7 games against the Saints and losing the last 2 Showdowns.

The 19th man will make AAMI a cauldron for the Crows, however Port Adelaide needs to buck the trend of their 2009 win-loss form and gain some momentum coming down the final stretch.

Port Adelaide by 15 points.
 
It would be folly to have any serious confidence in Port winning given the schizophrenic nature of our season. A good win wouldnt surprise me, nor would a 10 goal loss.
My thoughts on this game also.

As usual we will know in the first 5 minutes if our boys have come to play. If they can't get switched on for a Showdown there is no hope for this current crop of players. :(
 
I reckon one of the keys to this game, is come out and kick the first three or four goals to quieten the 19th man from the onset.

I've been to a few crows games this year and the 19th man rubbish is barley noticeable, except when the obnoxious skank on the screen tries to get the crowd up and going which is during the breaks anyway. The only time the '19th man' makes any noise during the game is when they clap and stamp their feet trying to make the player miss the shot on goal.
 

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I was really confident but when I heard that we would be playing unfit players well....

and some terribly unwell one's. Interesting that Logan, Carr and Meyer are all not well enough to line up for their SANFL club. A "bad" flu ripping through the club right now.
 
So now that both sides are confirmed, what are the matchups?

My view

In defence: Carlile on Tippett, Thurstans on Scott Stevens, Surj on Porplyzia, Stewart on Burton, Lower on Knights, Chappy playing fairly loose on whoever's left over.

In midfield: Stick Chad in the middle for this one, he does easily his best work in Showdowns and the midfield is the most important area on the field. Plus our backline is probably a bit too tall anyway. Kane Cornes tagging Scott Thompson, if Bernie Vince starts smashing us like he always does swap Kane over. No other tagging jobs needed.

Forward line: I would love to see a Davenport on McLeod match-up with Davenport playing a Monfries-esque attacking tagger role. McLeod's heart doesn't seem to be in it anymore, but if there was some way to measure heart Dav would probably be top 10 in the AFL. Combine that with Dav's far superior running power and the fact that he would apply a shitload of forward pressure if he was played in the forward line, and I really think this matchup will work well.
 
I was really confident but when I heard that we would be playing unfit players well....

Delusional port supporter:
Shaun would not be playing if he wasn't 100% fit, and we never play unfit players.

People, you just need to be real... :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

LOOK AT OUR INJURY HISTORY, INCLUDING THIS YEAR.

Shaun Burgoyne
Daniel Motlop
Steven Salopek

these are just the ones off the top of my head, not to mention the large number from 07 and 08.
 
Sellar will either win the Showdown Medal, or he'll kick the winning goal. Bad karma and all that shinizzle. At least we'll find out if karma exists!
I'd settle for him getting through the whole game without injuring a team mate.
 
I'd settle for him getting through the whole game without injuring a team mate.

Or his pants falling down with a 3 stooges sound effect ensuring.
 
Was pretty confident about this one earlier in the week but im worried about it now. I reckon we'll lose and lose easily to be honest. Dont have a good feeling about it at all.
 
Was pretty confident about this one earlier in the week but im worried about it now. I reckon we'll lose and lose easily to be honest. Dont have a good feeling about it at all.

Same here. I'm nervous. Especially if Brogan is a late out like other threads are suggesting. :eek:
 
dont worry Rory told me this yesterday

your going down tomorrow *****, i have an air of confidence, last 3 showdowns we've won the morrning of the game ive gone to the bakery and got a meat pie and apple turnover, so tommorow i will do it again, fullproof stratergy




So, You will win
 

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Port vs Adelaide @ AAMI Game Thread

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