Autopsy Post Match St Kilda v Carlton Rd 17 2018

[Savage Kent]

In the long term future, I really feel the modern game, even if the 6-man zones at centre restarts are introduced, suits a forward set up of say:

C: Sinclair Steele Acres
HF: Billings Battle Gresham
F: Marshall Membrey Long

When RoMa rucks, Acres to have a rest from the wing & push forward. Battle & Membrey swap between FF & CHF

Looking at the draft, could we possibly look to trade out Bruce or even Paddy?

Geelong give us their 1st pick (12) for Paddy. We use pick 4 on Max King & use pick 12 for best available inside/outside midfielder.... TBH I’d give this serious thought

I like this trade proposal. With a likely top 4 pick in a draft with top quality tall prospects, we could pick up a gun forward this year. Next year's draft is filled with more midfield prospects, so we could pick a young mid next year.

Geelong tend to pay overs for trades in some instances but may be reluctant to give up pick 12 on its own given Paddy's concussion and form issues. In addition, after pick 12, their next pick is pick 48. I do believe that their development system and top line midfield would allow him to flourish. I would look at the following trade scenarios:

1) Paddy + 2019 3rd round pick to cats for pick 12
2) Paddy + 2019 2nd round pick to cats for pick 12 + 2019 3rd round pick
3) Paddy + 2nd round pick from trading either Hickey or Longer (fingers crossed) for pick 12 + 48

Take Max King with pick 4 and one of Collier-Dawkins/Rozee/Hill with pick 12. Future forward line:

HF: Billings M.King Long
F: Battle, Membrey, Gresham

 

[thomas_m18]

Disliked nobody coming over to help Gresham when Lamb was trying to poke his eyes out - saw the whole thing unfold and there was more than enough time for various players who looked over at it to come over and help out. I know structures are important and the game was on but when a known grub is assaulting our best forward I'd have liked to see at least one player defend him.

Otherwise happy enough considering how dead the game was. Marshall gives me Ben Brown vibes and if he even turned out half as good we'd have a quality player on our hands.

 

[nitewalker13]

It was a good win and a confidence booster. A lot of people were bit nervous about this game including myself.

Just wondering, whether we miss Seb Ross yesterday or not? I know it was against Carlton but did we miss Ross yesterday or Ed, Billings, Gresham, Steven, Sinclair, Steele and Armo covered for him.

Can he be the trade bait?

 

[luca77]

Hey guys, lots of interesting discussions after last night.
Marshall should have earned at least 2-3 more consecutive games. Can't bring him in and out every other week, he needs the chance to show that last night wasn't a once-a-season performance. It was right to drop him after his last stint in the team but the potential he showed last night can't be ignored. Hope he improves his set-shot drop punts but the goal from the boundary was lovely.

Agree that a lot of Hickey's taps were ill-directed, even directly to Cripps - worst case scenario there. Also getting bullied in the throw-in by Cripps was an embarrassing moment. Having said that, Longer didn't make the spot his and Hickey couldn't possibly have done any more in the twos and played well overall last night. So bad luck for now Billy, see you in a few weeks.

I know I sound anti-Seb, but in my opinion he's been a significant factor in us being crap this year. I know he's worked hard and I appreciated his work in previous years. With Geary turning the ball over time and again and Weller spraying the ball all over the place, Dunstan at times too and blooding kids, we've just had too many players who lack composure and skill with ball in hand. In current form, I feel we can only play at most 2 of Geary/Ross/Weller and expect not to fall behind the better teams. Actually Dunstan's disposal doesn't bother me as much as others on here. He's an inside work horse and a lot of his missed targets are due to pressure and fatigue I think. Inside mids in every team are butchering the ball a bit. Luke does stuff it up now and then though, and it hurts when it results in a rebound or a missed opportunity.

Gilbert was good last night, and Armitage might be our best player in the last month, vying with Steven maybe. Geary was very good in general play so we're getting good service from our senior players at the moment finally. Better late than never I guess.

Gresh was quiet, but as someone else said was a bit concerning seeing him get roughed up with nobody stepping in. Pretty sure Bruce and Paddy would have gone in to help him, so that's worth considering.

Just about the best Bailey Rice has played and Hunter was in full prowling cat mode late in the game. He's not that small, huh? If he gets bigger and more aggressive over the preseason he'll be a force soon enough.

Anyway long post, sorry bout that.

 

[nitewalker13]

Disliked nobody coming over to help Gresham when Lamb was trying to poke his eyes out - saw the whole thing unfold and there was more than enough time for various players who looked over at it to come over and help out. I know structures are important and the game was on but when a known grub is assaulting our best forward I'd have liked to see at least one player defend him.

Otherwise happy enough considering how dead the game was. Marshall gives me Ben Brown vibes and if he even turned out half as good we'd have a quality player on our hands.

I think it looked like nobody came to his rescue but i was sitting close to where this incident happened and i can tell you all the players were on the other side and they didnt stop the game.

I think it was emergency umpire who came to the ground and asked them to settle down.

 

[kosifantutti]

Was one of Hickeys quieter games I think.
29 hit outs. 14 disposals, 5 marks and a poster.
We also won the clearances.
That would be a very very good game for Billy.

Billy 5 marks for the season. I’m not good with numbers but over five games his average would be quite low.

 

[luca77]

Dunno what's got you so upset. I agreed with AFLOnline's assessment. If this car review guy has loads of youngsters following him, bully for him. I've never watched his videos after 3 seconds of the first one for the exact reason AFLOnline stated. What's the problem with stating that? Takes all sorts to make world.

Personally I reckon anyone can sit there and freestyle a bunch of everyman opinions about the footy - even if they've got some kind of elite footy wisdom or insight, I doubt the opinion would vary with much on big footy and the video would have to offer something extra to be worth watching IMO. Gonna have a go at me too now, or just accept that it's constructive criticism?

I think it would be nice if constructive criticism was delivered in a supportive tone on here. If someone's trying to get something started and they're not spamming us with messages about it, we don't have to actively support them, but we don't have to publicly give them a slap. Also, there is a private messaging option on this forum if we want to get something off our chest or be frank with our advice.
Having said that, maybe people with video blogs e.t.c could keep them to a dedicated thread? I can see how if there were a few people doing it, or if they were persistent about it it could be a bit annoying.

 

[LuckyBounce!]

Oh I hate them. I still remember the joy of leaving wooden spoons at Princess Park after a match with Freo when they had won their first one. The arrogance of the club the players and fans when I was growing up, I enjoy every moment.

Couldn’t agree more with this!
**** Carlton I hope they are shithouse for a long long time still to come.
I have no sympathy whatsoever.
Growing up they were arrogant scum and treated us like garbage. I’m really enjoying this.

 

[FlyingSledghamer]

Still not sold on Hickey TBH.

Gets his hand to the ball but the taps go everywhere.

Besides he didn't have a proper opponent.

Let's see next week.

I wonder if team clearance numbers are very different between the two rucks when they play.
Last night with hickey we had 35 to 31
Last week with Billy 30 to 32
V Melb 32 to 37
V Gc 54 to 21 (despite significantly winning clearance Billy got pantsed in HO's by Witts 40 to 33)
What does that tell us?
IMO HO's are a bit of dumb stat. You can loose hit outs and still win clearance if your mids are dominant.
However these days more and more you just cant carry talls that are one dimensional.
We have Billy and Paddy on the ground and its like 2 less players than opposition if their not tapping or marking/ kicking goals.
Hickey competes around the ground, takes marks, how good did it feel when he took that mark inside 50 last night.
I cant remember the last time billy did that.

 

[Diehard Saint]

I think it looked like nobody came to his rescue but i was sitting close to where this incident happened and i can tell you all the players were on the other side and they didnt stop the game.

I think it was emergency umpire who came to the ground and asked them to settle down.

Hope the grub gets at least two weeks for eye gouging...and then the knee in the back.

 

[aussierulesrules]

That team with Seb, Battle, Paddy, Acres, Long, Robbo, Austin to come in. This isn't bad as we thought.

Yeah it was just a case of pretty much everything going wrong early in the season and our confidence (especially kicking for goal!) being shot.

Now we're back playing much more like we expected we would, and did the last two years, despite as many as 6 or 7 who'd be in our best team missing.

 

[gringo2011]

What, Roma's backup rucking v Bruce's?

But Bruce wouldn't usually have been rucking against the Kruezer's of the AFL, he'd go in there when they were on the bench, and he'd usually be rucking against the other team's equivalent of himself, yet he still only won a paltry 27 hitouts from 21 games.

Same when we have Gilbo/Paddy in the ruck. They're doing well if they win one hitout from a day of backup rucking. Last week Billy won every one of our hitouts. No-one else managed a single one.

Yet Roma comes in and gets 23. Against Geelong early in the year he had 9 in a half of back-up rucking before he got concussion and sat out the 2nd half. So he was on track for 18 that day.

His next 3 games in his return from the concussion were very average, but last night was much more like he'd been going in the first half of that game v Geelong, and in the ruck the previous week, but even better.

True but Carlton didn't even have a proper back up. Even Cripps had a go at one point, their second tier ruck was forced to ruck for most of the game and I can't even remember who it was. I'm excited about that game of Marshall's but it's probably not a great one to measure off.

 

[gringo2011]

If it wasn't for the channel 7 staff constantly banging on about Curnow I wouldn't have even noticed him.

He's unbelievable player and Gilbo wore him down. He's a really hard match up and has humiliated some very good defenders who can't go with him. He's been one of their few shining light this year.

 

[Sir Skid]

Billy 5 marks for the season. I’m not good with numbers but over five games his average would be quite low.

I'll have a crack kosifantutti

5 marks in 5 games = aaahhhmmm 1 mark/game.
Pure passenger stuff right there.

 

[gringo2011]

It was a good win and a confidence booster. A lot of people were bit nervous about this game including myself.

Just wondering, whether we miss Seb Ross yesterday or not? I know it was against Carlton but did we miss Ross yesterday or Ed, Billings, Gresham, Steven, Sinclair, Steele and Armo covered for him.

Can he be the trade bait?

Probably a hard game to gauge off, we don't play teams like Carlton every week who only have one mid and no ruckman.

 

[projectv]

What are the forums thoughts on Paddy after last night??

Mine are if he wasn't a pick 1 I couldn't care less tbh

Roma and Bruce are better for our style, score more, run more, mark more, hassle more..

No brainer for me

McCartin should be dropped to the 2's for the rest of the season and if he dominates, then we start with him next season.

Promising signs for Marshall, but we were playing the worst defence in the comp so it's hard to measure.

Battle also looking very good.

Best thing about this is it puts pressure on McCartin to improve, he has actual competition for his place in the team now.

I'd rather build a forward line around Membrey, than around McCartin though.

 

[aussierulesrules]

V Gc 54 to 21 (despite significantly winning clearance Billy got pantsed in HO's by Witts 40 to 33)
What does that tell us

Did you not watch that game? And since when is losing 40 to 33 "pansed"!?

Witts got more hitouts (mostly at stoppages), but they were nothing hitouts, with only 4 of his 40 or so being to advantage, whereas Billy gave him a lesson at the centre bounces in particular, resulting in a centre clearance count of 13-0 at half time. Time after time he put it out in front of Stuv and co and they ran off with it.

Hitouts to advantage ended up being 14-4 to Billy over Witts (who was 3rd in the comp for hitouts) and it played a big part in our clearance demolition.

Hitouts to advantage is far more important and relevant than just hitouts, I would have thought. It's about quality, not just quantity.

There has been a very clear correlation between Hickey rucking for us in the last two years and us being ranked bottom 2 in the comp for clearances over those periods.

Once Billy came into the team last year we went from one of the very worst couple of clearance teams to top 3 in the comp for winning the weekly clearance battle from that point on. It's why he was in the team.

We went from bottom 2 in the comp to top 3. Just think about that. With Hickey mostly rucking for us again this year we were back to dead-last for clearances. Top 3 by the end of last year with Billy rucking to dead-last this year with Tom mostly rucking and losing the ruck battle most weeks.

Some of those games early last year Hick was getting demolished in the ruck contests (like 20 hitouts to advantage to 4 type stuff) and we were getting slaughtered in the clearances as a result. It's why he was dropped.

From a team that won, just 4 games into a season after those that dropped him voted him 7th or so in the B&F the year before.

Both Tom and Billy have very significant weaknesses in their games and their strengths aren't anything to get super-excited about, hence both being bog-ordinary and in the worst few full time, "genuine ruckmen" getting regular games.

 

[BigMonty]

Excellent post, especially their guarding of space.

Even in the second qtr when they just congested the defensive 50, we still managed two goals from stoppages.

What I was a little dissapointed with was in qtr 4 Carlton again went into uber flood, we had the perfect opportunity to attempt other avenues to goal instead of the kick to the top of the goal square.

We have done that all year with minimal results. Perfect opportunity in game conditions to practice different approaches. May have not worked and we could have given up some cheap goals but really that wouldn't have mattered.

We need a Fisher type. Exactly fits our requirements.

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Thank you nice feedback is well...nice.

Remember Newnes in the last qtr called for running too far. Could see the poor bloke thinking wtf what now there are so many options but have no keep runningggggg ooops.

Still reckon too often we burnt the easier option by not lowering the eyes and hitting up he leading target and just going long....just reckon it does not work that well with our forward structure put Josh Bruce in there and that may make a difference.

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[Joffaboy]

Disliked nobody coming over to help Gresham when Lamb was trying to poke his eyes out - saw the whole thing unfold and there was more than enough time for various players who looked over at it to come over and help out. I know structures are important and the game was on but when a known grub is assaulting our best forward I'd have liked to see at least one player defend him.

Otherwise happy enough considering how dead the game was. Marshall gives me Ben Brown vibes and if he even turned out half as good we'd have a quality player on our hands.

The game was continuing 80 metres away. What were they supposed to do? Leave their man and run 80 metres away while the ball was in play?

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[FlyingSledghamer]

Did you not watch that game? And since when is losing 40 to 33 "pansed"!?

Witts got more hitouts (mostly at stoppages), but they were nothing hitouts, with only 4 of his 40 or so being to advantage, whereas Billy gave him a lesson at the centre bounces in particular, resulting in a centre clearance count of 13-0 at half time. Time after time he put it out in front of Stuv and co and they ran off with it.

Hitouts to advantage ended up being 14-4 to Billy over Witts (who was 3rd in the comp for hitouts) and it played a big part in our clearance demolition.

Hitouts to advantage is far more important and relevant than just hitouts, I would have thought. It's about quality, not just quantity.

There has been a very clear correlation between Hickey rucking for us in the last two years and us being ranked bottom 2 in the comp for clearances over those periods.

Once Billy came into the team last year we went from one of the very worst couple of clearance teams to top 3 in the comp for winning the weekly clearance battle from that point on. It's why he was in the team.

We went from bottom 2 in the comp to top 3. Just think about that. With Hickey mostly rucking for us again this year we were back to dead-last for clearances. Top 3 by the end of last year with Billy rucking to dead-last this year with Tom mostly rucking and losing the ruck battle most weeks.

Some of those games early last year Hick was getting demolished in the ruck contests (like 20 hitouts to advantage to 4 type stuff) and we were getting slaughtered in the clearances as a result. It's why he was dropped.

From a team that won, just 4 games into a season after those that dropped him voted him 7th or so in the B&F the year before.

Both Tom and Billy have very significant weaknesses in their games and their strengths aren't anything to get super-excited about, hence both being bog-ordinary and in the worst few full time, "genuine ruckmen" getting regular games.

They both suck. We should buy a better number 1 ruckman and sell both of them.
I dont notice Hickeys poor ruck work as much because he offers more around the ground.

 

[Phoenix_9]

Midfield frequency stats for the game.

There were 27 bounces

Phillips 25 wing
Sinclair 24 wing
Steven 22
Steele 22
Armitage 18 (17i, 1w)
Dunstan 13
Greshem 6
Newnes 2 wing
Clark 2 wing
Weller 1

Rucks:
Hickey 19
Marshall 8

Notes:
Most midfield time for Armitage in an analysed match since Rd 21, 2016, granted this is the first Saints match I've done in a month so he may've played more in the preceding 3 weeks.

Thanks for the break down, wish this was done on every match by Champion Data. Is it?
Interestingly, Phillips owned his wing all game.
I reckon that's the most balanced our midfield has been all game.

If Ross is to come back in (which is almost a guarantee, gastro won't keep him out another match), it almost has to be at Phillips expense. But Phillips arguably would play the wing role better. If Acres has a big game tomorrow, he'd be a far better option to slot in on the wing at Phillips expense. But is another 5 day turn around too short for Acres?
Either way, Phillips will be stiff to be dropped. Clark probably more in the gun than Phillips.

The combination of Steele, Steven and Armo/Dunstan with Gresh in spurts was fairly productive. If Ross comes back, he'll upset that balance, and force one of them to play more time in the forward line which isn't any of their strengths.

I almost wouldn't bring back Ross to play midfield after the Carlton performance.....

 

[BrutThough]

1. The best thing about that win was that we smashed them without our two AA40 players from last year, our top 3 key forwards and without out top two options for full back (Jakey is a CHB). We really had to scrape the bottom of the barrel for our keys this week and we still smashed them. Also, Carlisle went unnoticed and Gresh was below his best.

2. I cant wait for the next week where posters claim we are better without Seb and that we dont need him. He is still our second best midfielder and we need him for us to improve next year. Stuv is such gun and just a joy to watch. And like a lot of people, I apologise to Armo to retiring him a few weeks ago. He is been massive since coming back and his leadership really needs acknowledged.

3. Talk about getting carried away with Marshall. He was fine but we will go no where with him as our main key forward. At the bones of it, he is just a long way from being a good footballer. Hickey was okay, but we need to do whatever we can to get a proper ruckman. We need to somehow get Preuss out of North.

4. It was great to see Billings back to his best. His confidence is slowly growing each week and it is a great reminder of what he can do. I love how at the first bounce when a few Carlton defenders tried to get stuck into him, Newnes went over and stuck up for Billings. Also loved how everyone got around him when he kicked his first - they players know how much he has struggled with his confidence and are really supporting him as he gets it back. Dropping him to the VFL was surprising but may be the best thing to happen him.

5. I object to Richo saying Steele "had his coloured lowered", and I hope that was a heat of the moment comment that he rescinds after he watches the relay. Steele was fantastic last night against the best mid in the comp right now. He wasnt able to stop Cripps but he highlighted what a one way player Cripps is and became really damaging himself. His 17 uncontested and 11 score involvement show that he wasnt just following Crips around but was getting into dangerous situations himself. Also a balanced 15 CP and 17 UP, showing he is a balanced midfielder.

6. Credit to Gilbo for smashing Curnow. I did not notice either of them all night at the ground, so Gilbo did a great defensive job and didnt studs up his disposal much. Also credit to Carlisle for getting up when he was clearly in so much pain.

7. Playing Rice at Sandy for so long has been fantastic for his development. I know we wish we could have seen him earlier but his time sent in the VFL has served him well because he just looks like a confident, 32 year old footballer. He is just no sense which is great.

8. Lonie played his role which is all you can ask. 9 tackles is a huge effort and he should keep his spot due to that. He has so many clear limitations but you can never question is effort. Looking forward to the flop off between him and Rance next week.

9. DMac is great. He just looks like a completely new footballer and I just trust him in the big moments. His disposal is iffy but his defensive work is top notch. He has completely resurrected his career.

10. Geary gets a lot of crap but it is clear why he gets a game each week. He makes our defence so much stronger. Also, Savage is having a really good year.

 

[jslats]

Did anyone notice them banging on about McKay I think his name was after he got smashed by two saints? He cooped 2 hits and went down and they were like wow now that’s tough look he just got hit and he’s straight back up... He was still on the ground a minute later!!! They were talking about how tough he was and how there the sort of attributes that make a afl player and so on and the bloke just got double teamed and sat on the deck for a minute or so I couldn’t believe how much they went on about the turd!

 

[gringo2011]

Did you not watch that game? And since when is losing 40 to 33 "pansed"!?

Witts got more hitouts (mostly at stoppages), but they were nothing hitouts, with only 4 of his 40 or so being to advantage, whereas Billy gave him a lesson at the centre bounces in particular, resulting in a centre clearance count of 13-0 at half time. Time after time he put it out in front of Stuv and co and they ran off with it.

Hitouts to advantage ended up being 14-4 to Billy over Witts (who was 3rd in the comp for hitouts) and it played a big part in our clearance demolition.

Hitouts to advantage is far more important and relevant than just hitouts, I would have thought. It's about quality, not just quantity.

There has been a very clear correlation between Hickey rucking for us in the last two years and us being ranked bottom 2 in the comp for clearances over those periods.

Once Billy came into the team last year we went from one of the very worst couple of clearance teams to top 3 in the comp for winning the weekly clearance battle from that point on. It's why he was in the team.

We went from bottom 2 in the comp to top 3. Just think about that. With Hickey mostly rucking for us again this year we were back to dead-last for clearances. Top 3 by the end of last year with Billy rucking to dead-last this year with Tom mostly rucking and losing the ruck battle most weeks.

Some of those games early last year Hick was getting demolished in the ruck contests (like 20 hitouts to advantage to 4 type stuff) and we were getting slaughtered in the clearances as a result. It's why he was dropped.

From a team that won, just 4 games into a season after those that dropped him voted him 7th or so in the B&F the year before.

Both Tom and Billy have very significant weaknesses in their games and their strengths aren't anything to get super-excited about, hence both being bog-ordinary and in the worst few full time, "genuine ruckmen" getting regular games.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. To me the two rucks would be perfect if they could make one out of our two. I think earlier in the year I acknowledged that Longer probably serves the mids better but Hickey is hand down the better around the ground player. Neither are ideal the way ruck works right now. Both might be better if rule changes are brought in though.

 

[Sir Skid]

1. The best thing about that win was that we smashed them without our two AA40 players from last year, our top 3 key forwards and without out top two options for full back (Jakey is a CHB). We really had to scrape the bottom of the barrel for our keys this week and we still smashed them. Also, Carlisle went unnoticed and Gresh was below his best.

2. I cant wait for the next week where posters claim we are better without Seb and that we dont need him. He is still our second best midfielder and we need him for us to improve next year. Stuv is such gun and just a joy to watch. And like a lot of people, I apologise to Armo to retiring him a few weeks ago. He is been massive since coming back and his leadership really needs acknowledged.

3. Talk about getting carried away with Marshall. He was fine but we will go no where with him as our main key forward. At the bones of it, he is just a long way from being a good footballer. Hickey was okay, but we need to do whatever we can to get a proper ruckman. We need to somehow get Preuss out of North.

4. It was great to see Billings back to his best. His confidence is slowly growing each week and it is a great reminder of what he can do. I love how at the first bounce when a few Carlton defenders tried to get stuck into him, Newnes went over and stuck up for Billings. Also loved how everyone got around him when he kicked his first - they players know how much he has struggled with his confidence and are really supporting him as he gets it back. Dropping him to the VFL was surprising but may be the best thing to happen him.

5. I object to Richo saying Steele "had his coloured lowered", and I hope that was a heat of the moment comment that he rescinds after he watches the relay. Steele was fantastic last night against the best mid in the comp right now. He wasnt able to stop Cripps but he highlighted what a one way player Cripps is and became really damaging himself. His 17 uncontested and 11 score involvement show that he wasnt just following Crips around but was getting into dangerous situations himself. Also a balanced 15 CP and 17 UP, showing he is a balanced midfielder.

6. Credit to Gilbo for smashing Curnow. I did not notice either of them all night at the ground, so Gilbo did a great defensive job and didnt studs up his disposal much. Also credit to Carlisle for getting up when he was clearly in so much pain.

7. Playing Rice at Sandy for so long has been fantastic for his development. I know we wish we could have seen him earlier but his time sent in the VFL has served him well because he just looks like a confident, 32 year old footballer. He is just no sense which is great.

8. Lonie played his role which is all you can ask. 9 tackles is a huge effort and he should keep his spot due to that. He has so many clear limitations but you can never question is effort. Looking forward to the flop off between him and Rance next week.

9. DMac is great. He just looks like a completely new footballer and I just trust him in the big moments. His disposal is iffy but his defensive work is top notch. He has completely resurrected his career.

10. Geary gets a lot of crap but it is clear why he gets a game each week. He makes our defence so much stronger. Also, Savage is having a really good year.

Agree Cho's comment about Steele was out of line I reckon. Bit of an insult when he worked his ass off.